PariaMan wrote:We expect a big shift in EV adoption will start in the early 2020s, when vehicle manufacturers bring on new models, battery range improves, charging times reduce and when the cost of an electric vehicle meets the cost of a combustion engine vehicle
.Roy Williamson,vice president, advanced mobility, BP
I believe that you are conjoining the consumer market and the commercial heavy market in error.
For personal use passenger electric vehicles, battery pack cost, vehicle cost and TCO are expected to drop to be more affordable than any ICE before 2025. High turnover rates and consumer interest is driving adoption.
For commercial use heavy electric vehicles, although vehicle TCO will drop to become more affordable within the foreseeable future, fleet charging stations will need to replace fleet filling stations. Mechanics will need to be retrained and recertified. Existing vehicles will require replacement. The total cost of fleet operation currently looks like a hit to profitability for trucks that stay in operation 15 to 20 years.
In an effort to lower maintenance and operation costs, some ferries and ocean vessels are switching to LNG generator powered electric thrusters.
If I were looking at this from the perspective of a 5 passenger taxi driver, I may tend to agree with you. But by stepping back and viewing transportation holistically, you would likely have a slightly enhanced perspective.
Small electrically powered cars that go home with their drivers; then charged overnight or charged as necessary at a public location works well. Large trucks and ocean ferries that spend a day or two at work and are later refueled at a depot or dock works well, too. Current large trucks could be retrofitted to use L/CNG, further extending their service life and enhancing the owner's profits while lowering emissions.
Taken together, a combined approach reduces the cost, burden and complexity of infrastructure improvements. At least for the next few years.