The official tropical weather thread 2017

[ron_28]

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure located about 525 miles east-southeast of
Barbados is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph. The associated
shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in organization
since this morning and the system still appears to lack a
well-defined center. Environmental conditions are conducive for
some development before the system reaches the Lesser Antilles late
Tuesday or early Wednesday. After that time, less favorable
upper-level winds are expected to hinder additional development.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Lesser Antilles
beginning Tuesday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
currently en route to investigate the disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. An area of disturbed weather is located about 875 miles west-
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some gradual development of
this system is possible over the next few days while it moves slowly
toward the west-northwest or northwest over the open Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Brown

[redmanjp]

How come they didn't designate the disturbance as a PTC (Potential Tropical Cyclone) yet? They did so for Bret 24 hrs before it was confirmed a storm.

[shake d livin wake d dead]

8PM we go see the new update...in a nutshell Tobago going and flood out and parts of North East Trinidad

[hustla_ambition101]

CBS Miami reporting TS Don has formed

[maj. tom]

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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052017
500 PM AST Mon Jul 17 2017

...TROPICAL STORM FORMS EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLAND...
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 52.6W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM E OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Grenada.

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Barbados and for St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
St. Lucia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grenada

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 36
hours.

Interests in Trinidad and Tobago, Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao should
monitor the progress of Don.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 52.6 West. Don is moving
toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue through Wednesday, with a gradual increase in forward
speed. On the forecast track the center of Don will move through the
Windward Islands late Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
by late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Tropical Storm conditions are
possible in the watch area Tuesday and Tuesday night.

RAINFALL: Don is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches across the Windward Islands through Wednesday
morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... HHMM.shtml

[maj. tom]

Hoping it veers more North in the next two days.

[K74T]

Grenada under Tropical Storm warning

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

[sMASH]

High pressure over the Atlantic will keep stuff westward and limit northwards movement until past the Lee wards.





?

[shake d livin wake d dead]

We in the clear...Tobago would get the brunt and well toco matelot...daz it

[matr1x]

Oh well, I hope they don't get hit too hard

[X_Factor]

better hope this one does not take a last minute dive south

[meccalli]

Hmmn...that'd most likely be bad.

[redmanjp]

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/tropical-storm-don-forms-near-lesser-antilles-islands

Bret and Don: harbingers of an active hurricane season?
We’ve now had four named storms this year: Arlene, Bret, Cindy and Don. The fourth named storm of the year doesn’t typically form until around Aug. 23, based on the 1966-2009 average. The first hurricane of the year usually arrives by August 10; so far none of this year’s storm have become hurricanes.

Don is likely to be the second tropical storm to affect the Lesser Antilles Islands this year. According to NOAA’s Historical Hurricanes site, this would be the first year on record for the islands to see two tropical storms before August 1. There were two other years that came close: in 2005, Hurricane Emily passed though the islands on July 14, and the tropical depression that would become Hurricane Dennis passed through on July 4. In 1933, a tropical depression passed though the islands on July 14, and a tropical storm hit on July 25. It should give no one comfort that these were the two busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record!

[shake d livin wake d dead]

just ah lil rain tonight...small thing

[streetbeastINC.]

Dis don just take a lil sw dip

[shake d livin wake d dead]

Source^ cuz according to the updated nhc map...it went more north tobago

[meccalli]

Still 300 miles east of us. Grenada looks like it's gonna collect it dead on.

[streetbeastINC.]

Was looking at the NOAA LOOP buddy

[redmanjp]

why Tobago not under a watch at least? look how far the Northern most islands under a warning are (in blue) and look where the storm force winds are in orange

a watch means a possibility of storm conditions whereas a warning means it's expected- it certainly looks like a possibility at least

[eekipoo]

Was wondering that

[ron_28]

Was wondering that

and tobago seems to be getting some serious weather

[eekipoo]

They should of have them under a watch at least. Just spoke my friend across there and he's totally unaware a storm even in the area

[brainchild]

TEMA have all the bulletins up on their Facebook page...so at least they monitoring it.

[hydroep]

Looks like it did meander slightly to the south for a while but generally seems to be tracking westward between 270 - 280 degrees...at least according to this graphic:



https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/tropical-storm-don-atlantic-july-2017

[Chimera]

Ferry sailings cancelled for this evening and tmr for tobago

[redmanjp]

what about water taxi to sando?

[Chimera]

nun on their facebook page

https://www.facebook.com/watertaxiservice/

[2ndchance]

This thing looks like it's heading very close to Tobago.

Gfycat Video - Click to Play or Pause

[Ben_spanna]

If all that is rain and it falls on the northern range Diego martin better watch out!