The official tropical weather thread 2017

[shake d livin wake d dead]

Met office just copy and pasting from national hurricane website

[*$kїđž!™]

Cool and clear in chaguanas so far....keeping fingers crossed. Fed up of the rain.....

[bluefete]

Met office just copy and pasting from national hurricane website

So even with all that, no one has come out to advise the country to take all relevant precautions?

Everybody brakesing jus' so, jus' so?

Where is the leaderless ODPM at this time? Oh, sorry, they are waiting for the rain to really start falling.

Is a good thing God is a Trini, oui.

[PariaMan]

Fact is.unchanged it is still.only an area of bad weather. Not even a tropical depression

[matr1x]

Odpm waiting til people dead.and will say, it was completely under control. 8 ball will say that nothing can be done because of economic times. Then proceed to give out house to ppl from deigo Martin, lavantille and the like. Then of we don't riot,.who knows what kind of monster will come down

[PariaMan]

I.think.they doing good. Informing but not.panicking people. It is still just an area of bad weather

[PariaMan]

And plus it look like it missing us

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

Fact is.unchanged it is still.only an area of bad weather. Not even a tropical depression

But what happens when we have unusually bad weather?

[PariaMan]

Well as the notice said take normal precautions during rainy season. The world not going to end with the sky falling in

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

Can't disagree there. Precautions should be taken. And the system is not even closed isobar yet.

But even a less intense tropical wave causes flooding and landslides here.

[matr1x]

A normal day incurs chaos

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

Forecast from StormGeo services



I'm trying to get an updated one.

[bluefete]

Tropical Weather Outlook Text

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave about 800
miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands have become a
little better organized since yesterday. Some additional
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days before environmental conditions become less favorable for
tropical cyclone formation. This system is forecast to move to the
west-northwest at near 20 mph toward the Windward Islands and
northeastern South America during the next two days, and interests
in these areas should monitor its progress. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are likely to
spread over portions of the Windward Islands Monday night and
Tuesday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system on Monday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Surface observations and satellite data indicate that a broad low
pressure area is centered near the east coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula. This system is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms along with winds to gale force several hundred miles
to the east and northeast of the center. However, the low lacks a
well-defined center of circulation, and the Hurricane Hunter mission
scheduled for this afternoon has been canceled. Gradual development
is expected while the low moves slowly north-northwestward across
the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight, and then over the southern or
central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday, where a tropical or
subtropical cyclone is likely to form. Regardless of development,
heavy rains are expected over portions of Central America, the
Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba
during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on Monday, if
necessary. For more information on this system, please see the
High Seas Forecast issued by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast
Branch.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Beven

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

this landslip was yesterday on Lady Young Road - CNC3 shared the video



residents of the area helped to clear the road

[bluefete]

^^^ And that was hardly any rain that fell. Hmmm.

Anyway - An Accuweather forecast:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic


Development likely in the southern Gulf of Mexico
6/18/2017 11:55:00 AM

There are still no organized or named tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin, but we continue to watch two areas very closely for potential development over the next several days. A tropical wave with a surface low is located near 43 west. This system has been designated Invest 92L as it tracks off to the west at 10-15 mph. We also continue to monitor a low pressure center around 60 miles east of the northern coast of Belize. This system has been designated Invest 93L and will track off to the northwest passing near the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula later today and tonight before entering the southern Gulf of Mexico tomorrow. The National Hurricane Center has tentatively scheduled an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft to investigate Invest 93L later today if necessary.

Invest 93L is currently located just off the coast of northern Belize and is a relatively broad and weak 1007-mb low pressure center. Current satellite imagery continues to show robust but disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity in association with Invest 93L. This thunderstorm activity will continue to bring downpours today and tonight to portions of Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba and northern Honduras. Invest 93L will drift northwestward over the next 24 hours, passing over or very near to the northeastern corner of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight before entering the southern Gulf of Mexico tomorrow. At this point, once Invest 93L is pulling away from the land mass of the Yucatan and into the sufficiently warm waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico, further development and organization will be increasingly likely. Strong shear that has been plaguing the Gulf is projected to weaken somewhat across the central and eastern Gulf over the next day or two. This lessening shear, combined with very warm sea-surface temperatures, will give Invest 93L an opportunity to strengthen and organize over the next day or two.

The ultimate track of Invest 93L remains uncertain, even as development appears increasingly likely. Computer forecast models often do a poor job of handling highly sheared systems that are either weak tropical systems or have yet to fully develop. Thus, at this time the degree and location of possible impacts from Invest 93L remain uncertain. We continue to advise that all interests along the Gulf Coast of eastern Mexico and the United States should continue to carefully monitor the progression of this system and check back often with AccuWeather.com for the latest information.

Invest 92L is currently located near 43 west or over 1,000 miles to the east-southeast of Trinidad and Tobago. Current satellite imagery shows disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity in association with this feature. However, satellite imagery also continues to show a counter-clockwise rotation in the cloud field. Sea-surface temperatures are sufficiently warm enough to support development along the track of Invest 92L over the next several days. In addition, Invest 92L has remained to the south of the dry, dusty air to its north thus far. The feature will cross over or near Trinidad and Tobago Monday night before entering the eastern Caribbean Sea Tuesday morning. There will be a period of gusty winds and downpours as the system crosses over or near Trinidad and Tobago from Monday evening into Tuesday morning.

Beyond this point, Invest 92L may take a turn slightly more to the west-northwest. By Tuesday night, we expect the chance for this feature to develop to wane as either land interaction with the northern coast of South America and/or increasing wind shear over the central Caribbean would either inhibit development or cause any existing system to weaken and eventually dissipate.

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski

[bluefete]

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather- ... s/70001943

[wx_klb]

UPDATE: The National Hurricane Center will begin issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone 2 east of the Lesser Antilles at 5PM Local Time.


Tropical Update: Invest 92L Strengthening. Possible Hurricane Hunter Flight on Monday. Multiple Bulletins in Effect

https://www.facebook.com/TTWeatherCenter/posts/1493324427354269

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017
500 PM AST Sun Jun 18 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...7.5N 50.4W
ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
7.5 North, longitude 50.4 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A fast motion toward the west-
northwest is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. On the
forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move through the
Windward Islands Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
disturbance is expected to reach tropical storm intensity on Monday
before it reaches the Windward Islands.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the disturbance
has become better organized since yesterday, and some additional
development is possible during the next couple of days before
conditions become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation
over the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area overnight Monday and Tuesday morning, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the Windward Islands Monday
through Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[bluefete]

Duane: You left out the most important part:

https://www.facebook.com/TTWeatherCente ... 4427354269


The periphery of this system will begin to affect Trinidad and Tobago Monday afternoon into the night. Heavy thunderstorms are possible. Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service has given a greater than 70% chance of severe weather occurring.


More updates will continue to follow as information becomes available from the National Hurricane Center and the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service. For information on what to do to prepare for the Atlantic Hurricane Season, please visit the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Management at http://www.odpm.gov.tt/node/21

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

Bulletin #1

Date: Sunday 18th of June 2017
ISSUED AT: 02:44 PM

SEA CONDITIONS ALONG COASTLINES OF TRINIDAD AND
TOBAGO FORECAST TO DETERIORATE IN 24 TO 30 HOURS
! The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological
Service (TTMS) is informing the public on the
deterioration of sea conditions along coastlines
of Trinidad and Tobago in 24 to 30 hours. While
the sea state is currently moderate, it is
forecast to become more agitated tomorrow with
waves reaching 3.0 m and above. These waves are
being generated by an area of disturbed weather
located approximately 1200 km east-southeast of
Trinidad and Tobago.

Wave heights are forecast to increase to 3.0 m and
above from tomorrow afternoon, Monday 19th June
2017, along coastlines of Trinidad and Tobago,
especially the northern, eastern and southern
coasts. These rough seas will continue into the
following day, Tuesday 20th June 2017.
Additionally, conditions will be exacerbated
during high tide.

Fisher-folk and citizens, in particular those
residing along coastal areas, are asked to be on
the alert for these expected sea conditions. All
necessary measures should be taken to preserve
life and property.

GIVEN THE FORECAST MARINE CONDITIONS, ALL MARINE
INTERESTS ARE ADVISED TO BE ON THE ALERT AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IN ANY SEA RELATED ACTIVITIES.

http://metoffice.gov.tt/Bulletins

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

Duane: You left out the most important part:

I copied the entire thing from the link i posted

[bluefete]

So the Barbados gov't could put out a warning but we jamming still.

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

[bluefete]

Duane: You left out the most important part:

I copied the entire thing from the link i posted

Okay. But things started happening so quickly that it seems as if multiple pieces of information came out around the same time.

[bluefete]

Tobago! Tobago!



Right in the middle of the yellow marker.

[shake d livin wake d dead]

Me a know weather man right....but how come Barbados and neighbours get storm warning and we a get none?...talk in Lehman terms..

[bluefete]

Me a know weather man right....but how come Barbados and neighbours get storm warning and we a get none?...talk in Lehman terms..

Because we haffa long weekend. Who in authority works on a long weekend?

[eekipoo]

So the Barbados gov't could put out a warning but we jamming still.

I was now wondering this...How Barbados was issued a storm warning and it's not even at TS strength or for that matter depression yet? i confused now

[MrSennin]

2df11af4-e221-4ac8-8802-5c064f10e920.jpg

Rain Kamahamaha?

[bluefete]

So the Barbados gov't could put out a warning but we jamming still.

I was now wondering this...How Barbados was issued a storm warning and it's not even at TS strength or for that matter depression yet? i confused now

That is called future projection.

Take in front before in front takes you.