The official tropical weather thread 2017

[bluesclues]

this is gonna be some good fun. Is that bad I excited?

I suppose it all just breaks down to a matter of perspective.

[.:PROZAC:..]

So are we under a storm watch as yet?

If it will impact us late tonight into Wednesday morning, shouldn't we have heard something from the Met Office by now?

where is robin maharaj when you need him.

[cherrypopper]

Yup .... talking about armchair meteorologist. ..When last segonee was right

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

So are we under a storm watch as yet?

If it will impact us late tonight into Wednesday morning, shouldn't we have heard something from the Met Office by now?

this is the current bulletin put out by Met office this morning at 9am

Bulletin #4

Date: Tuesday 27th of September 2016
ISSUED AT: 09:12 AM

AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NOW LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 765 KM EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS At 8.00 a.m. today, Tuesday 27th
September, 2016, the centre of an area of low
pressure associated with a very active Tropical
Wave was located approximately 765 km east of the
Southern Windward Islands and continues to become
better organized.


The system is moving toward the west to
west-northwest at approximately 30 km/h and there
is a 90% chance of intensifying into a Tropical
Depression later today or tonight. Environmental
conditions continue to be conducive for
development as the system approaches the Windward
Islands. A Hurricane Hunter (U.S. Air Force
Reserve Reconnaissance) Aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the disturbance this
afternoon. Whether the system intensifies or
not, the leading periphery of the system should
begin affecting Trinidad and Tobago beginning
tonight and continuing into tomorrow Wednesday
28th September. There is an 80 % chance that
moderate to heavy showers can occur along with
isolated thundershowers capable of producing 25 to
50 mm of rainfall. These downpours can yield
moderate to severe street or flash flooding and
strong gusty winds in excess of 55 km/h.


As the system continues to intensify and move
closer to Trinidad and Tobago, showery activity
can yield in excess of 50 to 75 mm of rainfall
from Wednesday into Thursday. Wind speeds with
gusts in excess of 55 km/h are likely. Sea
conditions are also anticipated to become very
disturbed and adversely affect marine and
coastline interests, with waves in excess of 3.0
metres in open waters and very choppy in sheltered
areas. All interests in Trinidad, Tobago and Grenada
are asked to regard the possibility of these severe weather
conditions seriously and adopt measures which would
safeguard lives and property and pay close attention
to information being issued by the Trinidad & Tobago
Met Service.

http://www.metoffice.gov.tt/Bulletins

it is not a tropical storm as yet, so i don't think they can issue a storm warning.

[teems1]

^^

Ok I see. Wednesday night into Thursday morning is the expected rainfall.

In theory it sounds logical that you can only issue a storm warning once it becomes a storm, but the fact that we are one of the most easterly countries in the Caribbean, this means that by the time it is a storm it may already be upon us.

[Daran]

^^

Ok I see. Wednesday night into Thursday morning is the expected rainfall.

In theory it sounds logical that you can only issue a storm warning once it becomes a storm, but the fact that we are one of the most easterly countries in the Caribbean, this means that by the time it is a storm it may already be upon us.

I believe they will issue storm watches and warnings when it's expected to be a storm by the time it makes landfall.

We will be well south of the center of this system so it's likely we'll be under a Tropical Storm Watch Thursday.

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

http://trackthetropics.com/invest97/

[Dizzy28]

^No worries for T&T!!!

[pete]

Barbados in for some rain..

[BRZ]

Well that track is merely where the center will pass, but with that size of disturbance , I'm sure we will still get ALOT of rain ourselves.

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

^No worries for T&T!!!

why you say that?

look at this


the south eastern section may definitely bring lots of rain to T&T.

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

this is from ODPM

Public Advisory #2
Tuesday 27th September, 2016 10:15 a.m.

ODPM ADVISES CITIZENS TO BE VIGILANT OF ADVERSE WEATHER

The Office of Disaster Preparedness and Management (ODPM) is advising citizens to be vigilant of upcoming adverse weather as indicated in Information Bulletin #4 issued by the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Office (TTMET) at 8:00 a.m. on Tuesday 27th September, 2016. While the centre of the Tropical Wave system will pass north of Trinidad and Tobago, both islands are expected to be experience showery activity and gusty winds regardless of whether the system intensifies into a Tropical Depression or Storm. As such, there is a high chance of flash and riverine flooding and landslides in areas so prone.

Citizens are asked to remain vigilant and exercise caution while conducting their daily activities. We urge you to remain calm and pay attention to relevant advisories from authorised agencies in Trinidad and Tobago namely the TTMET Office and the ODPM. Citizens must not panic but rather take the time to prepare yourself and your families.

We encourage you to download our mobile application (Disaster Ready) to obtain emergency contact numbers, shelter location information and receive alerts of new information bulletins from the TTMET Office. The ODPM reminds all citizens that should you be affected by this upcoming inclement weather, please contact our Customer Care Centre at 511 and visit our website http://www.odpm.gov.tt for additional safety tips and our Disaster Preparedness Checklist.

Consequently, we continue to underscore the following:-
1. Pack an emergency kit for your entire family including non-perishable food, potable water, first aid supplies, flashlight, battery-operated radio, extra batteries etc.
2. Ensure that preparations are made for persons with special needs and pets.
3. Secure all important documents in a waterproof bag.
4. If you live in a flood-prone area, place furniture and appliances on a height from the ground and keep sand-bags easily accessible.
5. Develop a family emergency and evacuation plan.
6. Clear clogged rain gutters and downspouts.
7. Ensure that lawn furniture and loose outdoor items are properly tied down or brought inside.
8. After heavy rainfall, stay inside until water levels subside and venture outside only when it is confirmed safe.
9. Do not walk / drive through flood waters.
10. Be cautious and vigilant when walking /driving along hillsides or landslide prone areas.

We wish to underscore that Trinidad and Tobago is not under any Tropical Storm threat, Watch or Warning at this time. Citizens are asked to resist following any media, social media posts or unauthorised messages which are not disseminated by the TTMET Office or published on the ODPM's social media platforms.

The ODPM as the lead National Office for Disaster Management is coordinating with all relevant agencies to prepare for the possibility of any incoming weather, as we continue to closely monitor this weather event through the TTMET Office. Further, issuance of any other information bulletins will be done in a timely manner to advise the public of any further developments.

[Dizzy28]

^No worries for T&T!!!

why you say that?

look at this


the south eastern section may definitely bring lots of rain to T&T.

Ahh...some worries for those that live in flood prone areas of the country!!

[abbow]

So are we under a storm watch as yet?

If it will impact us late tonight into Wednesday morning, shouldn't we have heard something from the Met Office by now?

where is robin maharaj when you need him.

up in the us....Minnesota i think...saw a article about him some time ago....

[wx_klb]

It'll probably be declared a Tropical Storm once the NHC plane flies into the storm. Then you gonna see huge backtracking by the Met Office issuing a tropical storm warning for Tobago (probably not Trinidad bc we're too far away). They should have gone ahead and issue a watch like what Jamaica did before the NHC does.

https://www.facebook.com/TTWeatherCenter/posts/1220984634588251

[2WNBoost]

I guess the Met Office and ODPM are waiting for the text book definition of a "Tropical Depression" and / or "Tropical Storm".
From the looks of it, the bulk of the rain will be to the north of us.
Unless it changes direction, hmmm

NHC
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
Tropical Depression:
A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 kt (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less.
Tropical Disturbance:
A discrete tropical weather system of apparently organized convection -- generally 100 to 300 nmi in diameter -- originating in the tropics or subtropics, having a nonfrontal migratory character, and maintaining its identity for 24 hours or more. It may or may not be associated with a detectable perturbation of the wind field.
Tropical Storm:
A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) ranges from 34 kt (39 mph or 63 km/hr) to 63 kt (73 mph or 118 km/hr).


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a
well-organized tropical wave located about 475 miles east-southeast
of Barbados. However, the low appears to lack a closed circulation
at this time. Environmental conditions are favorable for continued
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form
later today or tonight while the system moves westward to west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea, including the northern coast of South America, should
monitor the progress of this disturbance, since warnings and watches
could be required at any time. Regardless of whether the system is a
tropical wave or tropical cyclone, heavy rains and wind gusts to
tropical storm force are expected to spread over the Windward
Islands and portions of the southern Lesser Antilles, beginning
tonight and continuing into Wednesday. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance
this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure that is
drifting westward. Upper-level winds are not expected to be
conducive for significant development before this system moves
inland over Mexico during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Brown

[pete]

What about the next tropical wave coming in that is still along the equator? Anything to be concerned about?

[Turbo]

^No worries for T&T!!!

why you say that?

look at this


the south eastern section may definitely bring lots of rain to T&T.

Ahh...some worries for those that live in flood prone areas of the country!!

Tobago in the line of fire as usal.........no wonder they doh like Trini's

[brickman]

Patches of weather are already forming in front of it so i would say rain has started early at least in the north.

[Slartibartfast]

Like I always say. Trini is a paradise. No hurricanes, no volcanoes, no big eathquakes, clean air, nice beaches (just a ferry ride away ), rivers and waterfalls. All we need to do is get rid of the people.

[redmanjp]

i feel at least tobago would be under warning by tonight or before once that NHC plane reach it and see a circulation- ah hope they there already as no point in warning u when d ting reach already

[shem1996_]

[redmanjp]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 350 miles east of Barbados continue to show signs of
organization. Buoy data indicate that the system is producing winds
to near tropical storm force, and an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is just beginning its mission to determine
if the system has a closed circulation. Environmental conditions
appear to be favorable for development, and a tropical depression or
tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight. This
system is moving westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and
is expected to pass over the Windward Islands on Wednesday morning,
and move over the southeastern Caribbean Sea late Wednesday and
Thursday.

Interests in the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, Bonaire,
Curacao, Aruba, and along the northern coast of South America
should monitor the progress of this disturbance, and consult
products issued by your national meteorological service, which
could include tropical storm warnings or watches. Regardless of
whether the system is a tropical wave or tropical cyclone, heavy
rains and tropical-storm-force winds in squalls are expected to
spread over the Windward Islands and portions of the southern
Leeward Islands, beginning tonight and continuing through
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

2. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico is associated with a trough of low
pressure that is drifting westward. Upper-level winds are not
expected to be conducive for significant development before this
system moves inland over Mexico during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Brown

[PariaMan]

Thing done pass us already. Another false alarm

[ST Auto]

^^ and where is that info coming from?

[mark2.0]

Seeing some men trying to secure a roof...

[bluefete]

Thing done pass us already. Another false alarm

You are a special kind of special or you simply do not know geography.

[bluefete]

So the odpm put out a notice earlier to tell us what we have known for almost 72 hours.

Dey should fire dat Ramroop man!!!!

[bluefete]

^^ and where is that info coming from?

Go and read it for yourself!!!!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[sMASH]

There was a bit of conflicting conditions, that needed to play out a bit more before a decision to be made.

I guessed it would follow the sea temperature more, and it seems to have done that by veering more north and organizing itself.