Diversification! Oil prices falling!

[zoom rader]

The only reason oil will continue to drop, its beacuse OPEC is putting the squeez on the shale gas investors to rethink on their procution and projects. It may drop to $50

[pugboy]

well a couple months ago the govt say it is no problem when imbert was bumping his gum,
they say he had the numbers wrong
dunno if that stance has changed

[Dizzy28]

The only reason oil will continue to drop, its beacuse OPEC is putting the squeez on the shale gas investors to rethink on their procution and projects. It may drop to $50

OPEC can only squeeze for so long.
Just like Trinidad a lot of OPEC countries have massive welfare programmes which will suffer if government revenues drop.

[zoom rader]

well a couple months ago the govt say it is no problem when imbert was bumping his gum,
they say he had the numbers wrong
dunno if that stance has changed

Its still not a problem, Oil is small scale in Trini and trini deals in Gas.
The oil war is between oil and shale gas. OPEC is kinda protecting Trini gas prices by having the oil price drop to squeez the shale gas investors off.
Shale gas will affect Trini gas prices.

[zoom rader]

The only reason oil will continue to drop, its beacuse OPEC is putting the squeez on the shale gas investors to rethink on their procution and projects. It may drop to $50

OPEC can only squeeze for so long.
Just like Trinidad a lot of OPEC countries have massive welfare programmes which will suffer if government revenues drop.

Well it a good thing our welfare program is primative and below parr to the other nations.

[Lance]

well a couple months ago the govt say it is no problem when imbert was bumping his gum,
they say he had the numbers wrong
dunno if that stance has changed

Its still not a problem, Oil is small scale in Trini and trini deals in Gas.
The oil war is between oil and shale gas. OPEC is kinda protecting Trini gas prices by having the oil price drop to squeez the shale gas investors off.
Shale gas will affect Trini gas prices.

Sometimes I think that your comments are purposely misinforming. It can't all be a coincidence.

You are talking in absolute production terms and ignoring the implication on revenue appropriation. Lets not talk in BOPD and MMBTU. Do you have figures on the bottom dollar impact? If you do then please share, if not, then I suggest that you do not make uninformed statements like "this is not a problem"

http://www.trinidadexpress.com/business ... 97561.html

[Habit7]

I so have to repost this because it so contradicts what ZR and those of his ilk were posting before when they first tried to play off the dip below $80 as a fluke.

Double trouble for energy sector
By \\\\\ Asha Javeed asha.javeed@trinidadexpress.com
Story Created: Dec 1, 2014 at 7:38 PM ECT
Story Updated: Dec 1, 2014 at 11:03 PM ECT

Energy economist Gregory McGuire says the Trinidad and Tobago economy is facing a double jeopardy.

This, he said, is precipitated by the fall in oil prices from US$110 a barrel in June to US$65 on Friday.

“The imminent danger posed by a sustained decline in oil prices was compounded last week by the news that a leak in National Gas Company’s (NGC) 56-inch pipeline aggravating an already tight gas supply situation and interrupting electricity generation at TGU,’ he observed.

“While these developments are completely unrelated, their joint impact on the economy could be devastating,” he noted.

McGuire said it is “obvious” that the fall in oil prices will have a negative impact on Government revenue.

“The Minister of Finance has indicated a loss of $1,879.4 million on an annualised basis. He further expects the reduction in fuel subsidy of $507 million thereby mitigating the overall increase in the deficit to $1,372 million. In seeking to calm our fear, Minister Howai reiterated that T&T is more of a gas economy, producing approximately 800,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, only ten per cent of which is oil. One is left with the distinct impression that gas will supplant the loss in oil.

“This may be a dangerous oversimplification that is flawed on two counts. Firstly, the argument that we are a gas economy is based mainly on the relative volumes produced.

“However, we always need to be cognizant of the fact that, a barrel of oil is worth much more than a barrel of oil equivalent in gas. Let us use the budgeted prices to illustrate this point. The budgeted price of a barrel of oil is US $80 while gas is budgeted at $2.75/mmbtu. When converted, this is equivalent to just US$15.95 per barrel of oil equivalent. In other words, a barrel of oil is 500 per cent more valuable than a barrel of oil equivalent in gas.

“In addition, the overall tax rate on oil is in excess of 60 per cent of taxable income while the tax rate gas is only 35 per cent. In these circumstances, we cannot glibly talk about the “gas economy” as if it is roughly equivalent to an “oil economy”. One estimate suggests that the oil share remains above 40 per cent of total Government revenue, much higher than the ten per cent share of production. The Minister needs to appraise the nation about the relative contribution of oil and gas to Government revenue,” he explained.

McGuire criticised Howai’s hope for “better than projected gas prices are mitigating the fall in oil prices”.

“Minister Howai is aware of the prognosis that gas prices will fall in tandem with oil. This is because in major markets of Europe, South America and the Far East, LNG prices are indexed to oil. For example, LNG prices in Asia have already dropped from US$20/mmbtu in January 2014, to US$10/mmbtu in October.

“This downward slide is likely to continue if oil continues to slip. The impact on Government revenues could be greater than anticipated by the Finance Minister,” McGuire said.

http://www.trinidadexpress.com/business ... 97561.html

What is also unsaid is that natural gas prices are high because we had an unseasonal early start of winter in the US and demand rose. Come Spring and Summer 2015 the same factors lowering oil can lower gas too.

Inasmuch as the govt would love to spend in an election year, they need to curb themselves from now.

[Redman]

well a couple months ago the govt say it is no problem when imbert was bumping his gum,
they say he had the numbers wrong
dunno if that stance has changed

Its still not a problem, Oil is small scale in Trini and trini deals in Gas.
The oil war is between oil and shale gas. OPEC is kinda protecting Trini gas prices by having the oil price drop to squeez the shale gas investors off.
Shale gas will affect Trini gas prices.

Sometimes I think that your comments are purposely misinforming. It can't all be a coincidence.

You are talking in absolute production terms and ignoring the implication on revenue appropriation. Lets not talk in BOPD and MMBTU. Do you have figures on the bottom dollar impact? If you do then please share, if not, then I suggest that you do not make uninformed statements like "this is not a problem"

http://www.trinidadexpress.com/business ... 97561.html

Posting it twice cant change the numbers.

Allyuh realize that at the end of the day if we produce 80000 BBL s per day

Thats 29.2M barrels a year.

With WTI at 80USD Petrotrin gets 35 USD per barrel
GORTT 9 USD per barrel.

With WTI at 65 Petrotrin gets 30.475 per bbl
GORTT gets 7.31 per BBL

There is a 2 USD per BBL user fee that is not price sensitive.
I dunno who gets that-I believe the MOE

So the total haul moves from 46 per BBL to 39.7 per BBL.

At 100 its 54.75.

My point is that from the BUDGETED price we have seen a 14% move in GORTT revenue from our total oil production revenues.

So the drop in oil prices in the first quarter of our fiscal year will have some impact.....but it will be in proportion to its contribution


The move from 80 to 65 will result in an annualized decrease of 1.2B TTD per year in the take from oil

Mc Guire did not speak to the IMPORTATION side of the ledger.

But....we Import between 55k and 70k of oil a day -Using 62k BOPD as a average- with the price move from the BUDGET price of WTI 80, importing at 65 saves 2.138 B TTD per year.

So we have 900M TTD to account for the SPT and PPT differential which is NO WHERE CLOSE

The revenue that GORTT from the gas sector is volume and price based-NOT BOE based.

the projection used for the budget is the GORTT take from the gas based on the price.

But if he claimed that the net result is loss on one side and a gain on the other essentially a wash-then he might not get the press coverage.

[zoom rader]

I so have to repost this because it so contradicts what ZR and those of his ilk were posting before when they first tried to play off the dip below $80 as a fluke.

Double trouble for energy sector
By \\\\\ Asha Javeed asha.javeed@trinidadexpress.com
Story Created: Dec 1, 2014 at 7:38 PM ECT
Story Updated: Dec 1, 2014 at 11:03 PM ECT

Energy economist Gregory McGuire says the Trinidad and Tobago economy is facing a double jeopardy.

This, he said, is precipitated by the fall in oil prices from US$110 a barrel in June to US$65 on Friday.

“The imminent danger posed by a sustained decline in oil prices was compounded last week by the news that a leak in National Gas Company’s (NGC) 56-inch pipeline aggravating an already tight gas supply situation and interrupting electricity generation at TGU,’ he observed.

“While these developments are completely unrelated, their joint impact on the economy could be devastating,” he noted.

McGuire said it is “obvious” that the fall in oil prices will have a negative impact on Government revenue.

“The Minister of Finance has indicated a loss of $1,879.4 million on an annualised basis. He further expects the reduction in fuel subsidy of $507 million thereby mitigating the overall increase in the deficit to $1,372 million. In seeking to calm our fear, Minister Howai reiterated that T&T is more of a gas economy, producing approximately 800,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, only ten per cent of which is oil. One is left with the distinct impression that gas will supplant the loss in oil.

“This may be a dangerous oversimplification that is flawed on two counts. Firstly, the argument that we are a gas economy is based mainly on the relative volumes produced.

“However, we always need to be cognizant of the fact that, a barrel of oil is worth much more than a barrel of oil equivalent in gas. Let us use the budgeted prices to illustrate this point. The budgeted price of a barrel of oil is US $80 while gas is budgeted at $2.75/mmbtu. When converted, this is equivalent to just US$15.95 per barrel of oil equivalent. In other words, a barrel of oil is 500 per cent more valuable than a barrel of oil equivalent in gas.

“In addition, the overall tax rate on oil is in excess of 60 per cent of taxable income while the tax rate gas is only 35 per cent. In these circumstances, we cannot glibly talk about the “gas economy” as if it is roughly equivalent to an “oil economy”. One estimate suggests that the oil share remains above 40 per cent of total Government revenue, much higher than the ten per cent share of production. The Minister needs to appraise the nation about the relative contribution of oil and gas to Government revenue,” he explained.

McGuire criticised Howai’s hope for “better than projected gas prices are mitigating the fall in oil prices”.

“Minister Howai is aware of the prognosis that gas prices will fall in tandem with oil. This is because in major markets of Europe, South America and the Far East, LNG prices are indexed to oil. For example, LNG prices in Asia have already dropped from US$20/mmbtu in January 2014, to US$10/mmbtu in October.

“This downward slide is likely to continue if oil continues to slip. The impact on Government revenues could be greater than anticipated by the Finance Minister,” McGuire said.

http://www.trinidadexpress.com/business ... 97561.html

What is also unsaid is that natural gas prices are high because we had an unseasonal early start of winter in the US and demand rose. Come Spring and Summer 2015 the same factors lowering oil can lower gas too.

Inasmuch as the govt would love to spend in an election year, they need to curb themselves from now.

Break in pipeline done fix and Bg/ bp to restart its new drilling and production operations after extensive shutdown maintenance. (money spending)

BP/ BG seeing something others not seeing. (money spending)

Trinity oil is expanding to drill new wells and increase its operations . (money spending)

Even Guyana is starting it's drilling operations for the first time. (money spending)

The big oil companies know this price drop is short term.

All this going on and Some lil small time energy economist (he not spending) must be smarter than the big top ranking oil companies to drill new wells .

[zoom rader]

well a couple months ago the govt say it is no problem when imbert was bumping his gum,
they say he had the numbers wrong
dunno if that stance has changed

Its still not a problem, Oil is small scale in Trini and trini deals in Gas.
The oil war is between oil and shale gas. OPEC is kinda protecting Trini gas prices by having the oil price drop to squeez the shale gas investors off.
Shale gas will affect Trini gas prices.

Sometimes I think that your comments are purposely misinforming. It can't all be a coincidence.

You are talking in absolute production terms and ignoring the implication on revenue appropriation. Lets not talk in BOPD and MMBTU. Do you have figures on the bottom dollar impact? If you do then please share, if not, then I suggest that you do not make uninformed statements like "this is not a problem"

http://www.trinidadexpress.com/business ... 97561.html

Posting it twice cant change the numbers.

Allyuh realize that at the end of the day if we produce 80000 BBL s per day

Thats 29.2M barrels a year.

With WTI at 80USD Petrotrin gets 35 USD per barrel
GORTT 9 USD per barrel.

With WTI at 65 Petrotrin gets 30.475 per bbl
GORTT gets 7.31 per BBL

There is a 2 USD per BBL user fee that is not price sensitive.
I dunno who gets that-I believe the MOE

So the total haul moves from 46 per BBL to 39.7 per BBL.

At 100 its 54.75.

My point is that from the BUDGETED price we have seen a 14% move in GORTT revenue from our total oil production revenues.

So the drop in oil prices in the first quarter of our fiscal year will have some impact.....but it will be in proportion to its contribution


The move from 80 to 65 will result in an annualized decrease of 1.2B TTD per year in the take from oil

Mc Guire did not speak to the IMPORTATION side of the ledger.

But....we Import between 55k and 70k of oil a day -Using 62k BOPD as a average- with the price move from the BUDGET price of WTI 80, importing at 65 saves 2.138 B TTD per year.

So we have 900M TTD to account for the SPT and PPT differential which is NO WHERE CLOSE

The revenue that GORTT from the gas sector is volume and price based-NOT BOE based.

the projection used for the budget is the GORTT take from the gas based on the price.

But if he claimed that the net result is loss on one side and a gain on the other essentially a wash-then he might not get the press coverage.

This is why you can't trust trini media they print one side of the story.
There are tuners and trinis that dont even know that trini Imports oils.

Same as Caroni, trinis did not even know that they imported raw sugar from cuba to have it refined. But they shut down the entire sugar industry whereas the refinery was making a profit on its own.

[randolphinshan]

^^^
And KPB's guru d old silver fox encouraged the demise of the sugar industry

[desifemlove]

Makes sense...world going back to recession....only countries affected are us, nigeria, maybe iran. Saudi and UAE wont be.

[toyolink]

The market condition today for oil and related hydrocarbons which is characterized by 'downward trending of prices' is historically a feature of the business (Boom Bust syndrome).
What is of major concern is the new timelines which the predictive demand/supply curves suggest and the associated price impacts.
I am of the view that we are at early days yet and discussions which focus on the immediate softening of prices need to be urgently replaced by analysis focusing on the medium to long term.
In the late 70's early 80's we got caught not believing in 'how low prices could go' and is only by around 1987 we got serious about dealing with the new market drivers.
The simple truth is a lot has changed since 2010 starting with the USA under Obama increasing its domestic capacity and additional players are now coming online.
This could be a helluva of a ride.

[zoom rader]

^^^
And KPB's guru d old silver fox encouraged the demise of the sugar industry

Please state where silver fox encourage this to back up your claim of caroni demised.

[Habit7]

NACTA: Sugar workers will bury Panday
Clint Chan Tack Monday, August 11 2003


BASDEO PANDAY’S betrayal of the country’s sugar workers has sealed his political demise and those same workers are hopeful of brighter days under Prime Minister Patrick Manning and the People’s National Movement (PNM). These were some of the findings of the latest NACTA poll taken following Caroni (1975) Limited’s closure two weeks ago. The survey interviewed 179 sugar workers, 84 non-sugar workers who live in the sugar belt and 54 non-sugar workers who live outside of the sugar belt. The respondents pointed out that Panday’s “entry into politics was through the sugar union (All Trinidad Sugar and General Workers Trade Union (ATSGWTU) and his exit is now based on the abandonment of the very workers who helped him to attain high office.” They said sugar workers never benefitted under the United National Congress (UNC) government and Panday “did virtually nothing to secure their interests not even offering them land for agriculture” but was “only interested in the big boys in Port-of-Spain.”

According to the findings, 78 percent of the respondents either felt betrayed or disappointed that neither Panday nor ATSGWTU President-General Rudranath Indarsingh did not come to comfort or offer solidarity to them when Caroni was closed and they were receiving their VSEP cheques. Of the combined 317 workers interviewed, a whopping 81 percent said Panday “neglected the sugar workers when he was in a position to assist them” while 72 percent felt Panday and Indarsingh “should have grounded with the workers on the last day of the industry.” The workers said notwithstanding their contribution to the industry and Trinidad and Tobago, all of their leaders (including UNC MPs) deserted them in their hour of need. The ATSGWTU also came under fire, as workers noted “there was no significant additional benefits to the VSEP package after the union won the case in the Industrial Court” but there was “a complete role reversal of the union’s position on VSEP.”

Asked if they thought Panday cared about the concerns of the sugar workers, 56 percent of all respondents said no. While 59 percent of the respondents were unsure about Manning’s sincerity towards sugar workers, “many pointed out that Manning’s package for sugar workers was still better than Panday’s in the latter’s plan to close down Caroni.” In fact, some respondents were grateful “some non-UNC politicians gave them hope and encouragement for the future.” On the issue of land distribution, the overwhelming majority of respondents believe the bulk of Caroni’s lands will go to friends and relatives of government officials and union officials instead of the workers. They are particularly fearful that Agriculture Minister John Rahael has “his eyes set” on Caroni lands and have no confidence in him restructuring Caroni or protecting its lands. Responses were mixed as to whether Manning could prevent rich land developers from making a mad dash for Caroni lands. While respondents believe the sugar industry can be successfully restructured and profitable through an infusion of Government capital, they expect “ghost towns to rise in several areas of Central and South and that more jobs will be lost when sugar workers VSEP money finish.” The sugar workers said they have lost faith in the PNM and UNC politicians and believe “there should be a third force” to represent the interests of the poor, under-represented and the working class.

http://www.newsday.co.tt/news/0,7941.html

[zoom rader]

U

NACTA: Sugar workers will bury Panday
Clint Chan Tack Monday, August 11 2003


BASDEO PANDAY’S betrayal of the country’s sugar workers has sealed his political demise and those same workers are hopeful of brighter days under Prime Minister Patrick Manning and the People’s National Movement (PNM). These were some of the findings of the latest NACTA poll taken following Caroni (1975) Limited’s closure two weeks ago. The survey interviewed 179 sugar workers, 84 non-sugar workers who live in the sugar belt and 54 non-sugar workers who live outside of the sugar belt. The respondents pointed out that Panday’s “entry into politics was through the sugar union (All Trinidad Sugar and General Workers Trade Union (ATSGWTU) and his exit is now based on the abandonment of the very workers who helped him to attain high office.” They said sugar workers never benefitted under the United National Congress (UNC) government and Panday “did virtually nothing to secure their interests not even offering them land for agriculture” but was “only interested in the big boys in Port-of-Spain.”

According to the findings, 78 percent of the respondents either felt betrayed or disappointed that neither Panday nor ATSGWTU President-General Rudranath Indarsingh did not come to comfort or offer solidarity to them when Caroni was closed and they were receiving their VSEP cheques. Of the combined 317 workers interviewed, a whopping 81 percent said Panday “neglected the sugar workers when he was in a position to assist them” while 72 percent felt Panday and Indarsingh “should have grounded with the workers on the last day of the industry.” The workers said notwithstanding their contribution to the industry and Trinidad and Tobago, all of their leaders (including UNC MPs) deserted them in their hour of need. The ATSGWTU also came under fire, as workers noted “there was no significant additional benefits to the VSEP package after the union won the case in the Industrial Court” but there was “a complete role reversal of the union’s position on VSEP.”

Asked if they thought Panday cared about the concerns of the sugar workers, 56 percent of all respondents said no. While 59 percent of the respondents were unsure about Manning’s sincerity towards sugar workers, “many pointed out that Manning’s package for sugar workers was still better than Panday’s in the latter’s plan to close down Caroni.” In fact, some respondents were grateful “some non-UNC politicians gave them hope and encouragement for the future.” On the issue of land distribution, the overwhelming majority of respondents believe the bulk of Caroni’s lands will go to friends and relatives of government officials and union officials instead of the workers. They are particularly fearful that Agriculture Minister John Rahael has “his eyes set” on Caroni lands and have no confidence in him restructuring Caroni or protecting its lands. Responses were mixed as to whether Manning could prevent rich land developers from making a mad dash for Caroni lands. While respondents believe the sugar industry can be successfully restructured and profitable through an infusion of Government capital, they expect “ghost towns to rise in several areas of Central and South and that more jobs will be lost when sugar workers VSEP money finish.” The sugar workers said they have lost faith in the PNM and UNC politicians and believe “there should be a third force” to represent the interests of the poor, under-represented and the working class.

http://www.newsday.co.tt/news/0,7941.html

You bring a survey where they ran a poll that interviewed 179 pp and 138 are non sugar workers ?
What bull chit propaganda is this?

This does not show proof that Panday
Closed or helped to closed caroni.

Last I recall it was PNM that shut down Caroni in 2003 where PNM was in power .
What you hoping to Spin? The PNM are responsible for closing caroni.

This is the one secret promise that PNM made and completed apart from secret scholarship slush fund.

Next you going show some poll were they interviewed ppl that says Calcutta ship statement was made by Panday

[desifemlove]

you still on dat? When KRowley condemned that LONG TIME? and de man get a stroke (some may say karma, but I doh tink he making much more publicly racist statements again)?

[desifemlove]

The only reason oil will continue to drop, its beacuse OPEC is putting the squeez on the shale gas investors to rethink on their procution and projects. It may drop to $50

OPEC only produces 40% of all petroleum. It's a complex ting, with shale gas, more domestically driven production, and more suppliers in Africa, Asia, etc. making supply larger. And with electric cars, and maybe fusion cars in several decades time, price will go down greater.

I blame PNM, Manning was PM during Bush Jr., and even then Bush Jr. said he wanted energy independence. Manning do nutten but build he church and then say how he sick and want big ting in KRowley Cabinet.

[nos_specialist]

ahh boy, the high dependance on Oil....it can cripple a country...













Invest in farming...nah, jus leave all ah Caroni land to grow bush...d oilll, d oillll will set us free....















damn idiots

[Redman]

Well I know that there was a private sector proposal that was put to Manning to keep ALL the Caroni farmers growing cane, and participating in the venture as a carried interest.
The crushing plant was to be purchased and the off take already contracted to be sold.
Environmentally friendly and required no financial support from the GORTT.
The funding was in place and all it required was the approvals...
it languished for 3 years until Govt changed.

Under this party it was shut down in order to award a certain transport company, that provided the right overnight accommodations to the right lady, a long term lease on the facilities.

We now import sugar from Guyana through this co.

Those are the facts.

[sMASH]

come in, suck the treasury dry, mashup the place and buss out smiling. that was the ppg 'crime plan'

That was the effective reasoning behind we getting independence.
It is the duty of any minister to milk their positions to the best of their ability.
... And if u start to write letters, you shall be put in your place forthwith

[sMASH]

Wrt caroni, PNM closed it down. There were plans to privatize it with local and Indian investors. But was shot down by PNM.
caroni did not need to close, but it needed major restructuring, and rebranding is an easy way to do that.
With proper diversification and fat cutting, we could have been mostly food secure and thus a bit insulated from major fossil fuel price drops.

But PNM needed caroni to shut down in order to get the prime agricultural lands so that they could build new settlements to secure their voting base via douglarization.

[desifemlove]

ahh boy, the high dependance on Oil....it can cripple a country...













Invest in farming...nah, jus leave all ah Caroni land to grow bush...d oilll, d oillll will set us free....















damn idiots

grow crops? i wanna rich country.......growing and selling yam and dasheen won't do dat..

[sMASH]

Ya mean yam sales don't pass through the treasury, so you can't skim some off of the top, and the bottom, and the middle.

[16 cycles]

WTI @63.05
Brent Crude @ 66.19

[toyolink]

When prices start moving that deep into the curve, a change to upward momentum becomes very difficult to achieve.
The investment threshold for new hydrocarbons is definitely at risk and things like higher and longer tax holidays along with reduced taxes and other charges are to be considered.

[RASC]

Still no panic yet?

[Dizzy28]

WTI @63.05
Brent Crude @ 66.19

Those damn Saudis!!!

[Habit7]

Still no panic yet?

Nope the man who championed FCB's IPO is in control.

[zoom rader]

Still no panic yet?

Panic for what? UNC ran this nation on $9 us a barrel.