Postby Duane 3NE 2NR » May 27th, 2014, 4:56 pm
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño** expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.
In its 2014 Atlantic hurricane season outlook issued today, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a near-normal or below-normal season.
The main driver of this year’s outlook is the anticipated development this summer. El Niño causes stronger wind shear, which reduces the number and intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes. El Niño can also strengthen the trade winds and increase the atmospheric stability across the tropical Atlantic, making it more difficult for cloud systems coming off of Africa to intensify into tropical storms.
The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season. For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These numbers are near or below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, based on the average from 1981 to 2010. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
**El Niño is a band of warm ocean water temperatures that periodically develops off the Pacific coast of South America.
Extreme climate change pattern oscillations influence weather across the Pacific Ocean, which results in fluctuating droughts, floods, and crop yields in varying regions of the world.
