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Duane 3NE 2NR wrote:seeing and hearing the thunder and lighting here in Chaguanas
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
2. A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DUE TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NNNN
Tuesday, October 9, 2012 22:58PM EDT - 98L, Hmmmm!
Good evening from frosty upstate NY!
So, something just had to show up on the radar while I was doing my annual checkup in 25 degree yesterday morning upstate NY. Yes, the frost was definitely "on the pumpkin". And the ground. And my windshield! Fortunately, "snow" wasn't and will not be seen this week!
98L has been trying to organize and has shown flareups of decent thunderstorm activity even in the face of some pretty hostile upper level windshear. Currently located approx. 8.9N 50.4W, it is moving WNW at about 17 mph with a low of 1008mb. There is no storm wrecking saharan dust around remotely close by, the waters are definitely warm enough to support intensification and the atmosphere is pretty moist so that leaves wind shear as 98Ls only hindrance.That will not be the case forever.
As usual with a non-named or organized system, the computer models diverge in all directions with the one model showing a Tropical Storm through the southern Windwards, a couple through the central Windwards as a TS also, and a couple head it to the northern Leewards as anywhere between a Cat 1 hurricane and a very strong wave.
Steering currents favor the last scenario, except for the hurricane part, as dominant high pressure in the central Atlantic should steer 98L to the NW once it approaches the islands. This will be especially true if it can organize. The very latest computer trends have it staying farther south though. If the NW solution materializes, this would put it on the doorstep of St Maarten, Antigua, Anguilla and Barbuda Saturday, the Virgin Islands Sunday and just north of Puerto Rico on Monday as either a depression or tropical storm since the wind shear is supposed to alleviate somewhat.
Whatever it turns out to be and wherever it heads, copious amounts of rainfall can be expected which, in the northern islands case, will be very welcome; a drought buster if you want to call it that. Just so long as it doesn't fall all at once and for a long time which, if this sytem slows down, could be a real possibility.
The next named storm will be Patty.
Dave (stormcarib.com)
*$kїđž!™ wrote:looks like some serious weather in the next few weeks........
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NNNN
shake d livin wake d dead wrote:heard on the news that this could develop into a storm within the next 2 days,after it passes us,so im guessing we lucky.
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