2010 and 2011 Tropical weather discussion

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

it's raining in the north west right now

[Rahtid]

it's raining in the north west right now

heavy? or just normal?

i in trincity now and hot sun,,

heading west later tho,,hope it aint raining later, rims gonna get dirty,

[Rahtid]

those islands gonna feel it,,,,wayyyyy

pressure

[redmanjp]

late August to earl y October & especially Sept is peak hurricane season and with so much wave coming off Africa and conditions very ripe one ah dem might decide to go south just now- ah tink ODPM bettah send dat text from now oui

[brickman]

Another hot,baking day.

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

the northern leeward islands are getting a drenching

[hustla_ambition101]

I feel we go get an earthquake soon

[Safeq]

the northern leeward islands are getting a drenching

I'm in Antigua now. My flight got cancelled. Airport closed till maybe tomorrow morning.

Where I am we're getting a bit of rain and some heavy winds but these are set to dramatically increase.

Will keep updating provided we've got electricity

[hustla_ambition101]

wtf hot sun, now rain blazing here in arima, high winds and all the faults in the windows are showing up

[brickman]

Rain may reach here in the north soon,hearing lots of thunder to the east.Heat still killing though.

[Red Dawg]

the northern leeward islands are getting a drenching

Actually, I am in Nevis and it has not rained for the day.
It has been overcast all day but nothing to report yet.
I was surprised when the lawn guys came and cut the lawn this morning.

I'll update later
providing I dont lose power or the connection

[Safeq]

Plenty rain and wind now in Antigua.
This should be interesting

[Wolfie]

There's another forming behind Earl @ 80% chance of becoming a Cyclone.

It is heading generally Westward, towards us.

We'll see if it changes direction.

eroo.PNG (165.53 KiB) Viewed 3624 times

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA...AND
ON HURRICANE EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 190 MILES EAST OF ANTIGUA.

1. ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY...RECENT SATELLITE DATA
INDICATE THAT IT DOES NOT YET APPEAR TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER...AND THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ONLY A
SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN

[SUPAstarr]

yuh lil late there, but as i said twice on this page....cmon tripletsssss

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

thanks for the great updates guys!

for our sake here in T&T lets hope the next set of systems keep the same NNW track as these have

[Red Dawg]

These were taken at 6:50pm Sun 29 Aug. 2010 @ Cades Bay, Nevis
Awesome sunset
A red sky is said to be a warning of a hurricane

[bluefete]

These were taken at 6:50pm Sun 29 Aug. 2010 @ Cades Bay, Nevis
Awesome sunset
A red sky is said to be a warning of a hurricane

Red sky at night, shepherd's delight.
Red sky at morning, shepherd's warning.

AWESOME pics.

[wagonrunner]

^^
shepherd or sailor?

[bluefete]

^^
shepherd or sailor?

Depends on whether you were in the land scouts or sea scouts.

[firstchoicett]

this is a interesting thread. Great work fellazs

[MISHI]

Yep doesn't matter the profession...

Red skies in the morning usually isn't a good sign...

Dark clouds in darker skies is even worse...

[Wolfie]

Not much northward movement yet, still aimed this way.

---
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT
1150 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT
ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
---

There's another forming behind Earl @ 80% chance of becoming a Cyclone.

It is heading generally Westward, towards us.

We'll see if it changes direction.

eroo.PNG

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA...AND
ON HURRICANE EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 190 MILES EAST OF ANTIGUA.

1. ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY...RECENT SATELLITE DATA
INDICATE THAT IT DOES NOT YET APPEAR TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER...AND THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ONLY A
SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN

[wagonrunner]

Wolfie, from that pic, i'm just hoping it doesn't dip southwards.

[redmanjp]

how is it that we get tropical waves that don't develop, but the ones that do go north?

[Hook]

^^ Develop how?

If you mean for tropical cyclone formation, a particular set of special conditions need to be satisfied for us to see something as severe as that, considering our latitude (proximity to the equator and ITCZ). But we see very developed TW activity here all the time, every year, several times per rainy season. It's what makes our rainy season...well...rainy.


HOWEVER, I feel I should address this:

There's another forming behind Earl @ 80% chance of becoming a Cyclone.

It is heading generally Westward, towards us.
We'll see if it changes direction.

eroo.PNG

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA...AND
ON HURRICANE EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 190 MILES EAST OF ANTIGUA.

1. ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY...RECENT SATELLITE DATA
INDICATE THAT IT DOES NOT YET APPEAR TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER...AND THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ONLY A
SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN

While enthusiasm is appreciated, what you said wasn't what the outlook said.
Please refrain from speculation (which causes unnecessary panic) and stick to the letter. These forecasts and tools are usually misinterpreted by the general public, which is why any information, bulletins, warnings etc. pertinent to your area should only come from qualified personnel at your local Meteorological Service.

[apple]

Hook is the weatherman gangster!

[SUPAstarr]

WOOOOGGGAAAAAD TROPICAL WAVE COMMIN LEWWE GO HOME EARLY!!!

[Bezman]

WAVES CRANKING!!!! surfs up "dudes"

[Hook]

lol...not quite eh Apple...but when upper-air charts, pictures, satellite images, outlooks and forecasts are misinterpreted and people paint a gloom and doom picture, it creates unnecessary panic and despair...and of course when our phones go ringing out the wazoo fielding questions from the public that could simply be answered if they paid attention to our forecasts and information updates, it makes our workload very difficult to bear.

I been saying the same thing continually, every rainy season for the last decade I been there, don't get dazzled by colourful infrared loops, don't get baffled by the technical language in the weather discussions (which is a meteorologist discussion anyway) and don't take the word of the person in the cubicle next door as gospel.
You wouldn't take your car to a surgeon instead of a mechanic to get it fixed, so take your weather information from qualified personnel ONLY.

http://www.metoffice.gov.tt/

Tropical Cyclones don't just pop up "out of thin air". You always see it coming. It irks me that Trinidadians panic for every moderate/heavy shower and quick to spread "tropical storm" panic when they fully aware that such is the nature of the season...hence the name.
Just be careful of what you say and make sure your information is from reliable sources and that your delivery is devoid of your own unqualified opinion, that's all.

[oxidation]

some serious lighting and thunder right now in curepe