The official tropical weather thread 2020

[fokhan_96]

Apparently there ARE lots of uncertainty with this one. From mora ....


JUST IN
10:46AM: GONZALO NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS!

11:00 AM AST Wed Jul 22
Location: 9.9°N 43.6°W
Moving: W at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

Satellite imagery indicates that the cyclone has become
significantly better organized since the last advisory. Visible
imagery shows a well-defined central dense overcast with a hint of an eye and an outer convective band in the western semicircle, while a 09Z GMI microwave overpass showed a well-defined inner convective ring feature. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 35-55 kt, so the initial intensity is raised to
a possibly conservative 45 kt.

The initial motion is now 270/10. Gonzalo is on the south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge, and this feature should
steer the storm generally westward at a faster forward speed for the next 3 days or so. After that time, a motion toward the
west-northwest is expected. The new NHC forecast track is little changed from the previous track, and it lies very close to the consensus models.

The intensity forecast remains very problematic and of low
confidence. On one side, the cyclone has been strengthening quickly and the good organization suggests additional, and possibly rapid, strengthening should occur. In addition, the SHIPS-based guidance and the HWRF make the system a hurricane and keep that intensity
through 120 h. On the other side, the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, and Canadian models are not big fans of this system, as they all forecast it to either be a weak low or dissipated by 120 h, possibly due to dry air entrainment and large-scale subsidence. The NHC intensity forecast again compromises between these extremes, showing
Gonzalo peaking as a hurricane in 36-48 h, followed by weakening in deference to the global models. The new intensity forecast has
significantly higher intensities than the previous forecast for most of the forecast period based on the recent intensification. As noted before, the small size of this system makes it susceptible to significant fluctuations in intensity, both upward and downward.

Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.

[redmanjp]

so possible bad weather along with a dose of community spread with covid- as i said before i hope if ppl have to go into shelters they are wearing masks! and the shelters have masks to give those who don't walk with one

[maj. tom]

WASA mustbe having a meeting right now and planning how to stop the water from a hurricane from going into the dams.

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

[bluefete]

^^ That Saharan dust might force it to keep southwards.

[bluefete]

Grenada is due to take a direct hit this weekend.

[shake d livin wake d dead]

^^ That Saharan dust might force it to keep southwards.

Is that possible?

[bluefete]

^^ That Saharan dust might force it to keep southwards.

Is that possible?

It could weaken its effect.

[EFFECTIC DESIGNS]

Trinidad sits outside of the hurricane belt we have nothing to worry about except flooding and a little strong wind.

[K74T]

Heavy showers in Chaguaramas.

[carluva]

Gonzalo's trajectory has changed a bit at the 5PM NHC update. It's now heading due west. It's also expected to become a hurricane on Thursday. Trinidad has a 5-10% probability of storm force winds, Tobago a 10-20% probability.

[redmanjp]

Gonzalo's trajectory has changed a bit at the 5PM NHC update. It's now heading due west. It's also expected to become a hurricane on Thursday. Trinidad has a 5-10% probability of storm force winds, Tobago a 10-20% probability.

so it strengthening to a hurricane then it weakening to a storm by teh time it reach by we

[redmanjp]

WASA mustbe having a meeting right now and planning how to stop the water from a hurricane from going into the dams.

too much dirty flood water does actually shutdown the plants

[maj. tom]

shutdown the output, but what that have to do with water going INTO the dams?

[maj. tom]

AccuWeather has a good tracker for your location: https://www.accuweather.com/en/tt/curep ... y=al072020

So based on current predictions we getting some fair wind gusts, (65km/h) and a large amount of rain on Saturday starting from 10 am.

[bluefete]

Trinidad sits outside of the hurricane belt we have nothing to worry about except flooding and a little strong wind.

Those who forget the past are condemned to relive it - George Santayana.

ED take a read.

https://www.facebook.com/notes/trinidad ... 463287611/


Note: For Trinidad - Alma, Fran, Bret and Isidore were all tropical storms.

For Tobago - Flora was a hurricane. Arthur and Joyce were tropical storms.

[shake d livin wake d dead]

Imagine calaweather and today in florida beating that tropical storm warning news for us and other islands...and our local people not doing one mc....year after year...same sheit

[j.o.e]

Imagine calaweather and today in florida beating that tropical storm warning news for us and other islands...and our local people not doing one mc....year after year...same sheit

You forget God holds a Trini passport ?

[bluefete]

Imagine calaweather and today in florida beating that tropical storm warning news for us and other islands...and our local people not doing one mc....year after year...same sheit

Doh beat up nah Shakes. Dis ah election year.

Tropical Storm warnings not important at this time.

[fokhan_96]

With all the roads being paved now, WASA has been very edgy, this hurricane will make them even more nervous.

WASA mustbe having a meeting right now and planning how to stop the water from a hurricane from going into the dams.

[shake d livin wake d dead]

Gonzalo's trajectory has changed a bit at the 5PM NHC update. It's now heading due west. It's also expected to become a hurricane on Thursday. Trinidad has a 5-10% probability of storm force winds, Tobago a 10-20% probability.

so it strengthening to a hurricane then it weakening to a storm by teh time it reach by we

By sat it would be Tobago alone

[redmanjp]

Imagine calaweather and today in florida beating that tropical storm warning news for us and other islands...and our local people not doing one mc....year after year...same sheit

Doh beat up nah Shakes. Dis ah election year.

Tropical Storm warnings not important at this time.

watches are usually issued 48 hrs before and warnings 36 hrs- so if it expected to hit Saturday then by tomorrow we should see a tropical storm watch issued

[matr1x]

C'mon...

Move a little more south......

[eitech]

C'mon...

Move a little more south......

Yuh is ah clown o wat

[shake d livin wake d dead]

C'mon...

Move a little more south......

I find you take real long

[goalpost]

Hurricane watch issued for Barbados.

[Dohplaydat]

Models show it most likely passing north of us, but flooding might be expected.

[redmanjp]

Hurricane watch issued for Barbados.

and none for tobago?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/230233.shtml

WTNT32 KNHC 230233
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
1100 PM AST Wed Jul 22 2020

...GONZALO A LITTLE STRONGER AND HEADING DUE WEST...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BARBADOS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.9N 45.9W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1685 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Watch for
Barbados.

Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was
located near latitude 9.9 North, longitude 45.9 West. Gonzalo is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general westward
motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the next few
days. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo would approach
the Windward Islands late Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Gonzalo is expected to become a hurricane
on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[matr1x]

C'mon...

Move a little more south......

I find you take real long

Was busy.


Imagine the beetham cleanse..

[shake d livin wake d dead]

Gonzalo's trajectory has changed a bit at the 5PM NHC update. It's now heading due west. It's also expected to become a hurricane on Thursday. Trinidad has a 5-10% probability of storm force winds, Tobago a 10-20% probability.

so it strengthening to a hurricane then it weakening to a storm by teh time it reach by we

By sat it would be Tobago alone

Called it....gonna pass us