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COVID-19 in Trinidad & Tobago (Local Updates & Discussions Only)

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Dizzy28
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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 114 cases, 8 deaths, 19 discharged in T&T

Postby Dizzy28 » April 15th, 2020, 9:02 pm

Our Gortt controlling the narrative of this virus locally like the CCP

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 114 cases, 8 deaths, 19 discharged in T&T

Postby paid_influencer » April 15th, 2020, 9:06 pm

CNN anchor Cuomo got his wife infected, even though he moved to the basement and self-isolated there.

So now his kids have both parents infected with COVID.

a special hell. :drinking:

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 114 cases, 8 deaths, 19 discharged in T&T

Postby paid_influencer » April 15th, 2020, 9:12 pm

pugboy wrote:not having access to your medical tests is rather suspect
as they say, the first casuality in a war is usually the truth


I wonder what's the logic behind not giving people their test results.

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 114 cases, 8 deaths, 19 discharged in T&T

Postby bluefete » April 15th, 2020, 9:21 pm

Re: Ian Alleyne

If he was positive for C-19 and was discharged from Couva, would he not have to go to step down facility? Like Caura or Sangre Grande?

Re; Press Conferences:

It is clear that these press conferences are very clearly stage managed. Whenever I see Rhoda Bharath get to ask questions, I KNOW that we are dealing with Mickey Mouses in some ways.

Years into the future, we will find out what is really happening.

It is good that people are thinking critically.

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 114 cases, 8 deaths, 19 discharged in T&T

Postby bluefete » April 15th, 2020, 9:22 pm

paid_influencer wrote:
pugboy wrote:not having access to your medical tests is rather suspect
as they say, the first casuality in a war is usually the truth


I wonder what's the logic behind not giving people their test results.


Banana Republic pal. From the start these results were delivered verbally. That says a lot.

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 114 cases, 8 deaths, 19 discharged in T&T

Postby Gladiator » April 15th, 2020, 9:29 pm

paid_influencer wrote:
pugboy wrote:not having access to your medical tests is rather suspect
as they say, the first casuality in a war is usually the truth


I wonder what's the logic behind not giving people their test results.


So under this current arrangement... They could very well tell anybody they give a test to that they positive and basically lock them away for however long they feel to. Gotta love incompetent politicians yes. And people scowling at the yellow lady who telling the public that they have rights even though there is a pandemic.

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 114 cases, 8 deaths, 19 discharged in T&T

Postby pugboy » April 15th, 2020, 9:45 pm

Yes , it sounding like once you in the system on record of having taken a test you could lose all civil liberties.

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 114 cases, 8 deaths, 19 discharged in T&T

Postby boxy » April 15th, 2020, 10:02 pm

This would make sense except for one problem..
As of 28th March in Jamaica
Currently, testing is only being conducted at the National Influenza Centre where 3,000 tests are available, 250 of which have been used.
On Saturday night, the Health Ministry reported that Jamaica has now confirmed 32 cases of COVID-19 with one death.

NOW match that with the 1000+ tests submitted to CARPHA in Trinidad and its clear Jamaica thought they were homefree before that call center guy just screwed up all the progress that was made. Let's pray they can contain it in time

Which leads me to my last point tests are in short supply worldwide especially the reagant used to get the results. The US just intercepted 10,000 additional kits. Heading to Jamaica so not Jamaica has To procure elsewhere.

Gladiator wrote:
paid_influencer wrote:
Dizzy28 wrote:Jamaica being hit for 6 with that Call Centre

WhatsApp Image 2020-04-15 at 4.29.15 PM.jpeg


Jamaican team working.

Other Caricom countries are finding infected in large bunches (20 or 30 people connected to a single group). But here in T&T we only finding positive people one by one.

Either we very lucky or we missing something.


The entire testing regime is set up to control the information.... and the Ian Alleyne fiasco exposing it live. If CARPHA only tests samples referred to them and persons can get no other place to do a test and added to that the test results can never be seen (no verification) since everything is verbal then the MoH has total control of the information available to the public. It all depends now on how much you trust Deyalsingh and Donna Cox... PNM people would drink down everything with no chaser and UNC people would watch the glass and die of thirst but refuse to even sip it.

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 114 cases, 8 deaths, 19 discharged in T&T

Postby streetbeastINC. » April 15th, 2020, 10:10 pm

So much epidemiological experts in here.......... any one of you actually working in the Health profession??

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 114 cases, 8 deaths, 19 discharged in T&T

Postby killercow » April 15th, 2020, 10:11 pm

redmanjp wrote:
hydroep wrote:"Textile Retailer" open back too yes. Looks like they will be forced to take more stringent measures...:|


Defiant limers, vendors back out in PoS

Andrew Gioannetti
On Queen Street, Jimmy Aboud's fabric store was open. One of the city's landmarks, it is owned by Gregory Aboud, who is also the Downtown Owners and Merchants Association. Customers were seen entering at the discretion of the security guard, who only allowed masked people inside, although some two weeks ago the company issuing an advisory of its immediate closure.

The store was closed on Wednesday but will open again on Thursday from 9-12 am, according to a representative whom Newsday reached by phone. It is understood that many people will have sought fabric to make reusable masks.


could the selling of masks be considered an essential activity, allowing such a business who would otherwise be shutdown to open? considering Govt has recommended it.

I personally know of a garment factory that was shut down but then reopened because of work orders to manufacture masks. Doh mind dey sneaking in regular clothing orders here and there :lol:

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 114 cases, 8 deaths, 19 discharged in T&T

Postby wing » April 15th, 2020, 10:19 pm

streetbeastINC. wrote:So much epidemiological experts in here.......... any one of you actually working in the Health profession??
The Honorable Gladiator who went to a Bluefete sponsored by a paid influencer where he sMash the pugboy.

The experts who surely have the solutions other than posting on trinituner.

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 114 cases, 8 deaths, 19 discharged in T&T

Postby ST Auto » April 15th, 2020, 10:25 pm

10pm update
94016108_3279416105421508_5069177495186571264_o.jpeg

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 114 cases, 8 deaths, 20 discharged in T&T

Postby Duane 3NE 2NR » April 16th, 2020, 12:28 am

CARPHA explains the process of testing for Covid-19
They said patients DO NOT receive results directly

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 114 cases, 8 deaths, 19 discharged in T&T

Postby A172 » April 16th, 2020, 1:03 am

streetbeastINC. wrote:So much epidemiological experts in here.......... any one of you actually working in the Health profession??
depending on the thread topic Dohplaydat is a laywer in some and well an epidemiologist here

which obviously translates to just a posing boola/Daran irl

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 114 cases, 8 deaths, 20 discharged in T&T

Postby sMASH » April 16th, 2020, 1:10 am

solution; limit testing with some sort of stipulation. let it work through the population on its own quietly, but slowly enough that the severe cases dont overload the health system.
what u dont know, didnt hurt u.

in the absence of a vaccine, we dont have a solution, we can only mitigate.

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 114 cases, 8 deaths, 20 discharged in T&T

Postby screwbash » April 16th, 2020, 4:25 am

2 mil yesterday and it jump by 88000 in one day. Go USA !!!
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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 114 cases, 8 deaths, 20 discharged in T&T

Postby redmanjp » April 16th, 2020, 5:16 am

https://trinidadexpress.com/newsextra/accused-covid-19-party-goers-charged/article_87acd832-7f78-11ea-b16d-3fd3317da110.html

Accused COVID-19 party goers charged
Apr 15, 2020 Updated 5 hrs ago
Image
The TTPS provided these images.

Five Trinidadian men and six Venezuelan nationals appeared in court today, charged under the Public Health [2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)] (No. 9) Regulations, 2020.

Trinidadian nationals, Bruce Bowen and Dominic Suraj, both of Maraval, Christopher Wilson, of Belmont, Collin Ramjohn, of Point Cumana, and Marlon Hinds, of Diego Martin, were among 16 persons held during an operation conducted by members of the Special Operations Response Team (SORT) at Alicia’s Guest House, Cascade,last Friday.

The raid was led by Commissioner of Police, Gary Griffith.

Six Venezuelan nationals; Luz Marinavargas Ibarra, Dana Natacha Fuentes Mudarra, Gresel Gerardo Goncalez Gonzales, Yulangi Del Carmen Prostertt Array, Luisneidis Marino and Marianel Del Valle Lopez Ramos, were among eight Venezuelan nationals held at the location.

These eleven suspects were subsequently charged with the offence of gathering in a public place where the number of persons gathered exceeded five persons, in accordance with Regulation 3 (1) (b) of the Public Health [2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)] (No. 9) Regulations, 2020.

They all appeared before Port of Spain Magistrate Adia Mohammed via video conferencing on Wednesday 15th April 2020. The Trinidadian men were granted own bail each in the sum of $20,000 on the condition that they remain at their residences between 6:00pm and 8:00am, until the COVID-19 Regulations are lifted.

The non-nationals were denied bail and remanded into custody.

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 114 cases, 8 deaths, 20 discharged in T&T

Postby boxy » April 16th, 2020, 6:22 am

Hoss I stopped posting for about two weeks and come back to still see you irresponsibly posting your thoughts. Is almost as if you doing it on purpose to get outrageous reactions.
When u going to understand that this is a hyper contagious virus it will never spread slowly. Worse yet it is a death sentence for our parents and grand parents you cool with visiting a parent for dinner and that simple interaction basically starts a countdown to the end of their life? That is what this thing doing bro It took less than 4 months for it to spread to all 195 countries on the planet you know how big a feat that is? And the only solution to control it is to totally eliminate it from accessing a source to breed and spread so staying home and social distancing is the only option till a vacinne is found.
sMASH wrote:solution; limit testing with some sort of stipulation. let it work through the population on its own quietly, but slowly enough that the severe cases dont overload the health system.
what u dont know, didnt hurt u.

in the absence of a vaccine, we dont have a solution, we can only mitigate.

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 114 cases, 8 deaths, 20 discharged in T&T

Postby sMASH » April 16th, 2020, 7:08 am

boxy wrote:Hoss I stopped posting for about two weeks and come back to still see you irresponsibly posting your thoughts. Is almost as if you doing it on purpose to get outrageous reactions.
When u going to understand that this is a hyper contagious virus it will never spread slowly. Worse yet it is a death sentence for our parents and grand parents you cool with visiting a parent for dinner and that simple interaction basically starts a countdown to the end of their life? That is what this thing doing bro It took less than 4 months for it to spread to all 195 countries on the planet you know how big a feat that is? And the only solution to control it is to totally eliminate it from accessing a source to breed and spread so staying home and social distancing is the only option till a vacinne is found.
sMASH wrote:solution; limit testing with some sort of stipulation. let it work through the population on its own quietly, but slowly enough that the severe cases dont overload the health system.
what u dont know, didnt hurt u.

in the absence of a vaccine, we dont have a solution, we can only mitigate.

u might want to go back on ur sabbatical.

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 114 cases, 8 deaths, 20 discharged in T&T

Postby Gem_in_i » April 16th, 2020, 7:48 am

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 114 cases, 8 deaths, 20 discharged in T&T

Postby mitch1980 » April 16th, 2020, 8:13 am

Appreciate this research

From FB

Rajiv Seereeram
8 hrs
COVID 19 surveillance, Trinidad and Tobago vs Hawaii

Trinidad and Tobago and the Hawaiian Islands are tropical territories, with similar climates, and population sizes (Hawaii 1.4 million, T&T 1.5 million). At present the total COVID 19 death toll in both T&T and Hawaii remain comfortingly low. Hawaii stands at 9 and reportedly Trinidad is 8. However, the case fatality rate* (CFR) in Hawaii is a respectable 1.7% when compared to T&T which has an abysmal record of 7%. In fact, T&T’s COVID-19 CFR even exceeds the state of New York (5.7%)! How is this possible?

On the 13th of March both islands had only 2 positive cases, and no deaths. In fact, at that time T&T even conducted more tests than Hawaii (63 vs 54 tests). However, over the next week Hawaii had escalated their surveillance, conducting over 2000 tests by the 20th March. In so doing they detected 35 new cases. By the 20th March T&T only tested 187 more samples and detected 7 new patients. Fast forward to the 15th of April, Hawaii tested 19,972 samples, detected 528 COVID-19 cases and had 9 deaths. By comparison to date we only tested 1282 samples, some of which were repeat samples from the same patient. So even though we had 8 deaths, with so few samples being tested we have only detected 114 COVID-19 cases. This accounts for our abysmal CFR. It is likely that the true prevalence of COVID-19 in T&T is significantly larger and can only be unmasked if there was adequate testing.

* The case fatality rate (CFR) is the number of deaths divided by the number of cases detected over a period.

What can account for this failure in local COVID-19 surveillance?

Since mid-March Hawaii started sentinel screening in which random sample of patients in the community is tested with the intention of detecting community transmission before it became widespread. Even though we didn’t have a protocol for sentinel screening, COVID-19 testing should have at least been scaled up from the minute local transmission was suspected. However, T&T maintained an unreasonably stringent testing criteria well after local transmission was declared by the WHO on the 26th. (Note the government delayed this announcement for 3 days). Physicians were diligently conducting nasopharyngeal swabbing and submitting suspicious local cases to the Ministry and CARPHA, however it appears that many samples were rejected because the patient may not have had a “relevant travel history” or contact with an affected individual. If the testing policy and practice was earnest in detecting community spread, then patients with relevant symptoms should have been tested, regardless of travel history.
In fact, whilst testing in Hawaii has accelerated over the last month up to the 13th testing in Trinidad and Tobago had plateaued and sometimes slowed! This is a trend throughout most of the CARPHA member countries, and it is possible that many islands may also be faltering in surveillance.

In T&T several glaring public health policy oversights may account for the failure in COVID surveillance

1) T&T maintains a policy of forced institutional quarantine for all positive cases. This is a futile and obstructive position, because it presents a major deterrent to suspicious patients, who are fearful of “incarceration” if tested positive. In North America (Hawaii), Europe and other compassionate societies, positive patients with mild to moderate symptoms who do not require inpatient care are placed in home quarantine and monitored remotely. Here we treat the unfortunate few who have been detected, like leapers in a colony under protracted quarantine. All the while other mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic COVID cases roam freely because they have escaped detection. Citizens may feel as though they are being punished for acting responsibly and getting tested.

2) The Ministry of Health in collaboration with CARPHA is micromanaging surveillance, and not permitting physicians to use their clinical discretion in testing. This may be a conservative measure; however, it assumes that one or two officers far away from the front line can supplant the clinical judgement of thousands of doctors on the field.

3) Unlike Hawaii which marshaled the resources of private labs from the beginning of the outbreak, the MOH and CARPHA, refused to tap into this resource. In fact, even when the MOH announced accreditation of local labs, it still insists that positive results are not disclosed to the paying client, before it vets the result. In Hawaii several labs offer roadside testing, which is accessible via the discretion of a physician. A positive result obtained from a non-reference lab is immediately compiled into the national registry as a “probable” case. This can be retested by the national lab if necessary. However, in T&T the MOH and CARPHA seemed to posture acrimoniously against the private sector, and attempts to police these labs with a “big stick”

4) Test results are often returned as “verbal’s”, which seem rather suspicious to both clinicians and patients. For example, without the submission of a typewritten, stamped and signed report, it is possible for a patient’s status to change “over the phone”. This practice significantly erodes public trust in the reporting system.

The delay in active surveillance, well after our community spread began, seems to have left us in a state of darkness, with little confidence in our case numbers. This is made worse by a lack of post-mortem testing; It’s likely that patients who may benefit from medical care are not being identified early enough to access treatment (e.g. supportive or emerging COVID-19 specific therapies), and even after death they are not recorded as a COVID-19 statistic.

It is likely that a severe shortage of testing kits in the region has resulted in very austere test rationing. Yet the Ministry of Health, and the government is ultimately responsible for sourcing, and procuring quality assured testing kits in a timely manner. Despite the bad press, North America supplied Hawaii with over 19,000 tests to date. A lack of kits is not an acceptable excuse for surveillance failure and citizens should be assured that all measures are taken to secure this critical supply.

To its credit the ministry announced that it has up-scaled its community surveillance since the 13th April and has dedicating a health center in each county for testing. However, the impact on the rate of testing or the number of cases detected is yet to be seen. Without swift address of the above four (4) policy shortcomings, its possible that the public participation in surveillance will remain lackluster. If the true scope of the outbreak continues to evade us the public will remain in a state of stupor, eventually becoming apathetic to social distancing and infection control measures. Furthermore, in the absence of reliable data, how can we know when it’s safe to return to work, school, or reopen industries? How do we chart a way out of this crisis if we are flying blind? The Ministry of Health should take heed of Hawaii’s COVID-19 surveillance, consider what our true numbers might be, and get its act together immediately.

Dr R Seereeram
Public Health Nutrition & Diabetes.
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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 114 cases, 8 deaths, 20 discharged in T&T

Postby maj. tom » April 16th, 2020, 9:27 am

My opinion now:

Right now, if i had COVID-19 symptoms, I would not be so eager and patriotic to call the hotline and get my ass locked up and mistreated by the government and medical institutions, even where i cannot access my own medical information, and locked in way past safe quarantine, etc. like how I am seeing these other people being treated. They even being incompetent with the testing.

I would stay home and quarantine myself and see where it goes. No reported case to the government. Nobody eh testing me. I have a feeling that this going on unreported in quite a few homes. People now fear the government actions just because they have a cough. It would not have to be so bad If everything was open and transparent and the media was allowed to get the correct information.

I don't know if this is political or simply the bureaucracy of a broken system. I think it's the latter. I can't see any political points being scored here, nor the Opposition doing any better job if they were in power.

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 114 cases, 8 deaths, 20 discharged in T&T

Postby wing » April 16th, 2020, 9:32 am

mitch1980 wrote:Appreciate this research

From FB

Rajiv Seereeram
8 hrs
COVID 19 surveillance, Trinidad and Tobago vs Hawaii

Trinidad and Tobago and the Hawaiian Islands are tropical territories, with similar climates, and population sizes (Hawaii 1.4 million, T&T 1.5 million). At present the total COVID 19 death toll in both T&T and Hawaii remain comfortingly low. Hawaii stands at 9 and reportedly Trinidad is 8. However, the case fatality rate* (CFR) in Hawaii is a respectable 1.7% when compared to T&T which has an abysmal record of 7%. In fact, T&T’s COVID-19 CFR even exceeds the state of New York (5.7%)! How is this possible?

On the 13th of March both islands had only 2 positive cases, and no deaths. In fact, at that time T&T even conducted more tests than Hawaii (63 vs 54 tests). However, over the next week Hawaii had escalated their surveillance, conducting over 2000 tests by the 20th March. In so doing they detected 35 new cases. By the 20th March T&T only tested 187 more samples and detected 7 new patients. Fast forward to the 15th of April, Hawaii tested 19,972 samples, detected 528 COVID-19 cases and had 9 deaths. By comparison to date we only tested 1282 samples, some of which were repeat samples from the same patient. So even though we had 8 deaths, with so few samples being tested we have only detected 114 COVID-19 cases. This accounts for our abysmal CFR. It is likely that the true prevalence of COVID-19 in T&T is significantly larger and can only be unmasked if there was adequate testing.

* The case fatality rate (CFR) is the number of deaths divided by the number of cases detected over a period.

What can account for this failure in local COVID-19 surveillance?

Since mid-March Hawaii started sentinel screening in which random sample of patients in the community is tested with the intention of detecting community transmission before it became widespread. Even though we didn’t have a protocol for sentinel screening, COVID-19 testing should have at least been scaled up from the minute local transmission was suspected. However, T&T maintained an unreasonably stringent testing criteria well after local transmission was declared by the WHO on the 26th. (Note the government delayed this announcement for 3 days). Physicians were diligently conducting nasopharyngeal swabbing and submitting suspicious local cases to the Ministry and CARPHA, however it appears that many samples were rejected because the patient may not have had a “relevant travel history” or contact with an affected individual. If the testing policy and practice was earnest in detecting community spread, then patients with relevant symptoms should have been tested, regardless of travel history.
In fact, whilst testing in Hawaii has accelerated over the last month up to the 13th testing in Trinidad and Tobago had plateaued and sometimes slowed! This is a trend throughout most of the CARPHA member countries, and it is possible that many islands may also be faltering in surveillance.

In T&T several glaring public health policy oversights may account for the failure in COVID surveillance

1) T&T maintains a policy of forced institutional quarantine for all positive cases. This is a futile and obstructive position, because it presents a major deterrent to suspicious patients, who are fearful of “incarceration” if tested positive. In North America (Hawaii), Europe and other compassionate societies, positive patients with mild to moderate symptoms who do not require inpatient care are placed in home quarantine and monitored remotely. Here we treat the unfortunate few who have been detected, like leapers in a colony under protracted quarantine. All the while other mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic COVID cases roam freely because they have escaped detection. Citizens may feel as though they are being punished for acting responsibly and getting tested.

2) The Ministry of Health in collaboration with CARPHA is micromanaging surveillance, and not permitting physicians to use their clinical discretion in testing. This may be a conservative measure; however, it assumes that one or two officers far away from the front line can supplant the clinical judgement of thousands of doctors on the field.

3) Unlike Hawaii which marshaled the resources of private labs from the beginning of the outbreak, the MOH and CARPHA, refused to tap into this resource. In fact, even when the MOH announced accreditation of local labs, it still insists that positive results are not disclosed to the paying client, before it vets the result. In Hawaii several labs offer roadside testing, which is accessible via the discretion of a physician. A positive result obtained from a non-reference lab is immediately compiled into the national registry as a “probable” case. This can be retested by the national lab if necessary. However, in T&T the MOH and CARPHA seemed to posture acrimoniously against the private sector, and attempts to police these labs with a “big stick”

4) Test results are often returned as “verbal’s”, which seem rather suspicious to both clinicians and patients. For example, without the submission of a typewritten, stamped and signed report, it is possible for a patient’s status to change “over the phone”. This practice significantly erodes public trust in the reporting system.

The delay in active surveillance, well after our community spread began, seems to have left us in a state of darkness, with little confidence in our case numbers. This is made worse by a lack of post-mortem testing; It’s likely that patients who may benefit from medical care are not being identified early enough to access treatment (e.g. supportive or emerging COVID-19 specific therapies), and even after death they are not recorded as a COVID-19 statistic.

It is likely that a severe shortage of testing kits in the region has resulted in very austere test rationing. Yet the Ministry of Health, and the government is ultimately responsible for sourcing, and procuring quality assured testing kits in a timely manner. Despite the bad press, North America supplied Hawaii with over 19,000 tests to date. A lack of kits is not an acceptable excuse for surveillance failure and citizens should be assured that all measures are taken to secure this critical supply.

To its credit the ministry announced that it has up-scaled its community surveillance since the 13th April and has dedicating a health center in each county for testing. However, the impact on the rate of testing or the number of cases detected is yet to be seen. Without swift address of the above four (4) policy shortcomings, its possible that the public participation in surveillance will remain lackluster. If the true scope of the outbreak continues to evade us the public will remain in a state of stupor, eventually becoming apathetic to social distancing and infection control measures. Furthermore, in the absence of reliable data, how can we know when it’s safe to return to work, school, or reopen industries? How do we chart a way out of this crisis if we are flying blind? The Ministry of Health should take heed of Hawaii’s COVID-19 surveillance, consider what our true numbers might be, and get its act together immediately.

Dr R Seereeram
Public Health Nutrition & Diabetes.
Looks like another anti pnm stooge. Research is much more than just googling some stats.
bcda8dc.jpeg

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 114 cases, 8 deaths, 20 discharged in T&T

Postby maj. tom » April 16th, 2020, 9:47 am

Dr R Seereeram
Public Health Nutrition & Diabetes.

is likely very well aware what scientific research is.
He didn't call his post of facebook "research." And as a reader I was not under the impression that it was research because it was not labelled as such, no citations, no formatting, etc. It seems to be that it was just an educated opinion piece by comparing some data in a layman's way. Like the opinion columns one would read in all the newspapers in the world.


Is it that nobody can criticize the authorities at all now in an opinion? He must be an "anti-PNM stooge" for having an opinion? You think that a Dr. Rajiv Seereeram, Advisor on Nutrition, The Ministry of Health,. Government of The Republic of Trinidad and Tobago doesn't know what research is?

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 114 cases, 8 deaths, 20 discharged in T&T

Postby Gladiator » April 16th, 2020, 9:57 am

If it was written by someone with a non Indian last name it would have been more palatable I guess...

Holding the Govt accountable and asking critical questions and demanding transparency is not being Anti PNM. It's being a responsible citizen with a brain that is capable of some level of critical thinking.

I guess that's not likely to be pro PNM...
wing wrote:
mitch1980 wrote:Appreciate this research

From FB

Rajiv Seereeram
8 hrs
COVID 19 surveillance, Trinidad and Tobago vs Hawaii

Trinidad and Tobago and the Hawaiian Islands are tropical territories, with similar climates, and population sizes (Hawaii 1.4 million, T&T 1.5 million). At present the total COVID 19 death toll in both T&T and Hawaii remain comfortingly low. Hawaii stands at 9 and reportedly Trinidad is 8. However, the case fatality rate* (CFR) in Hawaii is a respectable 1.7% when compared to T&T which has an abysmal record of 7%. In fact, T&T’s COVID-19 CFR even exceeds the state of New York (5.7%)! How is this possible?

On the 13th of March both islands had only 2 positive cases, and no deaths. In fact, at that time T&T even conducted more tests than Hawaii (63 vs 54 tests). However, over the next week Hawaii had escalated their surveillance, conducting over 2000 tests by the 20th March. In so doing they detected 35 new cases. By the 20th March T&T only tested 187 more samples and detected 7 new patients. Fast forward to the 15th of April, Hawaii tested 19,972 samples, detected 528 COVID-19 cases and had 9 deaths. By comparison to date we only tested 1282 samples, some of which were repeat samples from the same patient. So even though we had 8 deaths, with so few samples being tested we have only detected 114 COVID-19 cases. This accounts for our abysmal CFR. It is likely that the true prevalence of COVID-19 in T&T is significantly larger and can only be unmasked if there was adequate testing.

* The case fatality rate (CFR) is the number of deaths divided by the number of cases detected over a period.

What can account for this failure in local COVID-19 surveillance?

Since mid-March Hawaii started sentinel screening in which random sample of patients in the community is tested with the intention of detecting community transmission before it became widespread. Even though we didn’t have a protocol for sentinel screening, COVID-19 testing should have at least been scaled up from the minute local transmission was suspected. However, T&T maintained an unreasonably stringent testing criteria well after local transmission was declared by the WHO on the 26th. (Note the government delayed this announcement for 3 days). Physicians were diligently conducting nasopharyngeal swabbing and submitting suspicious local cases to the Ministry and CARPHA, however it appears that many samples were rejected because the patient may not have had a “relevant travel history” or contact with an affected individual. If the testing policy and practice was earnest in detecting community spread, then patients with relevant symptoms should have been tested, regardless of travel history.
In fact, whilst testing in Hawaii has accelerated over the last month up to the 13th testing in Trinidad and Tobago had plateaued and sometimes slowed! This is a trend throughout most of the CARPHA member countries, and it is possible that many islands may also be faltering in surveillance.

In T&T several glaring public health policy oversights may account for the failure in COVID surveillance

1) T&T maintains a policy of forced institutional quarantine for all positive cases. This is a futile and obstructive position, because it presents a major deterrent to suspicious patients, who are fearful of “incarceration” if tested positive. In North America (Hawaii), Europe and other compassionate societies, positive patients with mild to moderate symptoms who do not require inpatient care are placed in home quarantine and monitored remotely. Here we treat the unfortunate few who have been detected, like leapers in a colony under protracted quarantine. All the while other mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic COVID cases roam freely because they have escaped detection. Citizens may feel as though they are being punished for acting responsibly and getting tested.

2) The Ministry of Health in collaboration with CARPHA is micromanaging surveillance, and not permitting physicians to use their clinical discretion in testing. This may be a conservative measure; however, it assumes that one or two officers far away from the front line can supplant the clinical judgement of thousands of doctors on the field.

3) Unlike Hawaii which marshaled the resources of private labs from the beginning of the outbreak, the MOH and CARPHA, refused to tap into this resource. In fact, even when the MOH announced accreditation of local labs, it still insists that positive results are not disclosed to the paying client, before it vets the result. In Hawaii several labs offer roadside testing, which is accessible via the discretion of a physician. A positive result obtained from a non-reference lab is immediately compiled into the national registry as a “probable” case. This can be retested by the national lab if necessary. However, in T&T the MOH and CARPHA seemed to posture acrimoniously against the private sector, and attempts to police these labs with a “big stick”

4) Test results are often returned as “verbal’s”, which seem rather suspicious to both clinicians and patients. For example, without the submission of a typewritten, stamped and signed report, it is possible for a patient’s status to change “over the phone”. This practice significantly erodes public trust in the reporting system.

The delay in active surveillance, well after our community spread began, seems to have left us in a state of darkness, with little confidence in our case numbers. This is made worse by a lack of post-mortem testing; It’s likely that patients who may benefit from medical care are not being identified early enough to access treatment (e.g. supportive or emerging COVID-19 specific therapies), and even after death they are not recorded as a COVID-19 statistic.

It is likely that a severe shortage of testing kits in the region has resulted in very austere test rationing. Yet the Ministry of Health, and the government is ultimately responsible for sourcing, and procuring quality assured testing kits in a timely manner. Despite the bad press, North America supplied Hawaii with over 19,000 tests to date. A lack of kits is not an acceptable excuse for surveillance failure and citizens should be assured that all measures are taken to secure this critical supply.

To its credit the ministry announced that it has up-scaled its community surveillance since the 13th April and has dedicating a health center in each county for testing. However, the impact on the rate of testing or the number of cases detected is yet to be seen. Without swift address of the above four (4) policy shortcomings, its possible that the public participation in surveillance will remain lackluster. If the true scope of the outbreak continues to evade us the public will remain in a state of stupor, eventually becoming apathetic to social distancing and infection control measures. Furthermore, in the absence of reliable data, how can we know when it’s safe to return to work, school, or reopen industries? How do we chart a way out of this crisis if we are flying blind? The Ministry of Health should take heed of Hawaii’s COVID-19 surveillance, consider what our true numbers might be, and get its act together immediately.

Dr R Seereeram
Public Health Nutrition & Diabetes.
Looks like another anti pnm stooge. Research is much more than just googling some stats.
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killercow
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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 114 cases, 8 deaths, 20 discharged in T&T

Postby killercow » April 16th, 2020, 10:31 am

Gladiator wrote:
Holding the Govt accountable and asking critical questions and demanding transparency is not being Anti PNM. It's being a responsible citizen with a brain that is capable of some level of critical thinking.

If there were more citizens in this country who were able to open their eyes to this truth, then maybe one day we might actually graduate out of the banana republic that we continue to be.

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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 114 cases, 8 deaths, 20 discharged in T&T

Postby boxy » April 16th, 2020, 10:38 am

Interesting read but the author left out a major loophole here. Hawaii is the 50th US state and federal law prevents them from closing their border. And most of their cases were travel related with only recent community spread at an elderly home. Which started to spike the rates.
Also comparing the volume of tests in the US when procuring tests is a major problem for them imagine if CARPHA didn't use WHO guidelines and gave everyone tests without meeting the criteria then more than half the stock would have been depleted without a way to get anymore cause in case u in notice literally every country is looking inward where materials for this virus Is concerned
I agree with it being a draconian way of having a citizen quarantined but do you as a person trust someone else to do the responsible thing and self quarantine if they are in fact sick? A perfect example is Ian suppose he self quarantined and got his first negative and say ah yes I free of the virus time for wetting after wetting and gone and get more people sick? Currently a stay home order is in place and people are breaching it. You willing to give people the benefit of the doubt in this situation?
mitch1980 wrote:Appreciate this research

From FB

Rajiv Seereeram
8 hrs
COVID 19 surveillance, Trinidad and Tobago vs Hawaii

Trinidad and Tobago and the Hawaiian Islands are tropical territories, with similar climates, and population sizes (Hawaii 1.4 million, T&T 1.5 million). At present the total COVID 19 death toll in both T&T and Hawaii remain comfortingly low. Hawaii stands at 9 and reportedly Trinidad is 8. However, the case fatality rate* (CFR) in Hawaii is a respectable 1.7% when compared to T&T which has an abysmal record of 7%. In fact, T&T’s COVID-19 CFR even exceeds the state of New York (5.7%)! How is this possible?

On the 13th of March both islands had only 2 positive cases, and no deaths. In fact, at that time T&T even conducted more tests than Hawaii (63 vs 54 tests). However, over the next week Hawaii had escalated their surveillance, conducting over 2000 tests by the 20th March. In so doing they detected 35 new cases. By the 20th March T&T only tested 187 more samples and detected 7 new patients. Fast forward to the 15th of April, Hawaii tested 19,972 samples, detected 528 COVID-19 cases and had 9 deaths. By comparison to date we only tested 1282 samples, some of which were repeat samples from the same patient. So even though we had 8 deaths, with so few samples being tested we have only detected 114 COVID-19 cases. This accounts for our abysmal CFR. It is likely that the true prevalence of COVID-19 in T&T is significantly larger and can only be unmasked if there was adequate testing.

* The case fatality rate (CFR) is the number of deaths divided by the number of cases detected over a period.

What can account for this failure in local COVID-19 surveillance?

Since mid-March Hawaii started sentinel screening in which random sample of patients in the community is tested with the intention of detecting community transmission before it became widespread. Even though we didn’t have a protocol for sentinel screening, COVID-19 testing should have at least been scaled up from the minute local transmission was suspected. However, T&T maintained an unreasonably stringent testing criteria well after local transmission was declared by the WHO on the 26th. (Note the government delayed this announcement for 3 days). Physicians were diligently conducting nasopharyngeal swabbing and submitting suspicious local cases to the Ministry and CARPHA, however it appears that many samples were rejected because the patient may not have had a “relevant travel history” or contact with an affected individual. If the testing policy and practice was earnest in detecting community spread, then patients with relevant symptoms should have been tested, regardless of travel history.
In fact, whilst testing in Hawaii has accelerated over the last month up to the 13th testing in Trinidad and Tobago had plateaued and sometimes slowed! This is a trend throughout most of the CARPHA member countries, and it is possible that many islands may also be faltering in surveillance.

In T&T several glaring public health policy oversights may account for the failure in COVID surveillance

1) T&T maintains a policy of forced institutional quarantine for all positive cases. This is a futile and obstructive position, because it presents a major deterrent to suspicious patients, who are fearful of “incarceration” if tested positive. In North America (Hawaii), Europe and other compassionate societies, positive patients with mild to moderate symptoms who do not require inpatient care are placed in home quarantine and monitored remotely. Here we treat the unfortunate few who have been detected, like leapers in a colony under protracted quarantine. All the while other mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic COVID cases roam freely because they have escaped detection. Citizens may feel as though they are being punished for acting responsibly and getting tested.

2) The Ministry of Health in collaboration with CARPHA is micromanaging surveillance, and not permitting physicians to use their clinical discretion in testing. This may be a conservative measure; however, it assumes that one or two officers far away from the front line can supplant the clinical judgement of thousands of doctors on the field.

3) Unlike Hawaii which marshaled the resources of private labs from the beginning of the outbreak, the MOH and CARPHA, refused to tap into this resource. In fact, even when the MOH announced accreditation of local labs, it still insists that positive results are not disclosed to the paying client, before it vets the result. In Hawaii several labs offer roadside testing, which is accessible via the discretion of a physician. A positive result obtained from a non-reference lab is immediately compiled into the national registry as a “probable” case. This can be retested by the national lab if necessary. However, in T&T the MOH and CARPHA seemed to posture acrimoniously against the private sector, and attempts to police these labs with a “big stick”

4) Test results are often returned as “verbal’s”, which seem rather suspicious to both clinicians and patients. For example, without the submission of a typewritten, stamped and signed report, it is possible for a patient’s status to change “over the phone”. This practice significantly erodes public trust in the reporting system.

The delay in active surveillance, well after our community spread began, seems to have left us in a state of darkness, with little confidence in our case numbers. This is made worse by a lack of post-mortem testing; It’s likely that patients who may benefit from medical care are not being identified early enough to access treatment (e.g. supportive or emerging COVID-19 specific therapies), and even after death they are not recorded as a COVID-19 statistic.

It is likely that a severe shortage of testing kits in the region has resulted in very austere test rationing. Yet the Ministry of Health, and the government is ultimately responsible for sourcing, and procuring quality assured testing kits in a timely manner. Despite the bad press, North America supplied Hawaii with over 19,000 tests to date. A lack of kits is not an acceptable excuse for surveillance failure and citizens should be assured that all measures are taken to secure this critical supply.

To its credit the ministry announced that it has up-scaled its community surveillance since the 13th April and has dedicating a health center in each county for testing. However, the impact on the rate of testing or the number of cases detected is yet to be seen. Without swift address of the above four (4) policy shortcomings, its possible that the public participation in surveillance will remain lackluster. If the true scope of the outbreak continues to evade us the public will remain in a state of stupor, eventually becoming apathetic to social distancing and infection control measures. Furthermore, in the absence of reliable data, how can we know when it’s safe to return to work, school, or reopen industries? How do we chart a way out of this crisis if we are flying blind? The Ministry of Health should take heed of Hawaii’s COVID-19 surveillance, consider what our true numbers might be, and get its act together immediately.

Dr R Seereeram
Public Health Nutrition & Diabetes.

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wing
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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 114 cases, 8 deaths, 20 discharged in T&T

Postby wing » April 16th, 2020, 10:40 am

killercow wrote:
Gladiator wrote:
Holding the Govt accountable and asking critical questions and demanding transparency is not being Anti PNM. It's being a responsible citizen with a brain that is capable of some level of critical thinking.

If there were more citizens in this country who were able to open their eyes to this truth, then maybe one day we might actually graduate out of the banana republic that we continue to be.
Holding the govt accountable is one thing, googling some stats and bending them to your preconceived opinion is another. Critical thinking you say, but you have already fallen prey to this man's suggestions already , like a nice sheep. I am a financial member of an opposition party, so I am already anti pnm, but my critical thinking allows me to see that the good doctor is blatantly pushing an agenda.

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wing
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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 114 cases, 8 deaths, 20 discharged in T&T

Postby wing » April 16th, 2020, 10:43 am

Well said Boxy. Now is not the time for political games. Again I ask, who among the gladiators etc can put forward a solution rather than clucking like hens Everytime someone throws some corn for them to lap up.

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teems1
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Re: Coronavirus - COVID-19 - 114 cases, 8 deaths, 20 discharged in T&T

Postby teems1 » April 16th, 2020, 10:49 am

Aren't there only like 4000 tests and it's near impossible to know how many more would be brought in since the countries which manufacture them have a high demand or are keeping it for themselves?

The issue of not testing more is tied to the fact that we don't have that many tests to utilize.

You can't compare us to other countries who are pumping out test kits and have a robust internal network.

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