Diversification! Oil prices falling!

[bluesclues]

Heard on the news today that China loaned vene a US$20M.
Isn't it China self that bail out the USA when they was in the recession? Did they ever pay back or China yet to make their claim?

nope they still owing a trillion dollars plus interest to china.

[Redman]

Ok for the record the fact that the fixed for local fuel is higher than the international prices means benefits the marketing companies ....not Petrotrin...so the question is since unipet is private...how do they treat with the windfall profits as a result of low intl prices.

[nervewrecker]

Now gonna read it

http://useconomy.about.com/od/worldecon ... -China.htm

Thanks

And also thank you redman.

[UML]

The PM said it best!!! We have the right government at the right time!!! God help us if PNM was in power!!

[Allergic2BunnyEars]

I'm hearing that because of the fall in oil prices, premium gasoline users are no longer being subsidised but actually paying more than it is worth at $5.75 per litre?

I can believe that. The $5.75 price was very close to being unsubsidized if it was not unsubsidized already. As the price of oil goes down the price of fuel goes down as well. The government generally talks subsidy talk when oil prices skyrocket because it means they have to fork out more and the opposite happens when it falls. It's why Redman mentioned that the government is spending less on the subsidy and should state that out loud when talking about change in revenue/expenditure.

The government generally talks subsidy talk when oil prices skyrocket because it means they have to fork out more and the opposite happens when it falls.

Lol ... Tuners here go believe all this nonsense ? Ok maybe it Carnival and you

If you have proof otherwise then post it. Until then you're as bad as UML with the emotional responses with no facts.

[bluesclues]

Something I was schooled on recently.

Debt and deficit are both what a country owes. The difference is the time frame each refers to.

Deficit is the difference between the income and the expenditure for a specific year. So if a country generates 5bn in income in a year but spends 7bn, it had a deficit of 2bn.

Debt is the total of all the deficits. It is overall what the country owes.

We all use these to measure the performance of any particular government. The problem occurs when the politicians and their supporters use the terms wrongly to make themselves look good or make their opponents look bad.


But u can't just say that a high deficit figure is cause for concern. Inflation may simply be the problem that when accounted for, makes the value on par with previous years.


As redman pointed out, the yearly expenditure or budget, needs to be factored when comparing.
The ratio of deficit to budget should be a more realistic statistic to use, as it would factor out inflation.

deficit spending is what creates inflation. for an example.. if the country budget is 100bn and we go into a 30bn deficit for the next budget(130bn) then the purchasing power of each and every dollar is reduced by 30%. this in turn causes local businesses, sharp in understanding about the economy to raise their prices by 30%. if salaries stay the same then it means a family can acquire only 70% of what they could with their salary. it is equivalent that every dollar in that situation, though it has a $1 written on it, is only worth 70 cents on the market. this is inflation devaluing the dollar. with some number shifting you can postpone devaluation against foreign currencies but that too reduces purchasing power. this is why wages shouldnt lag behind, but they do, generally because the working class doesnt understand all these inner workings to know that just like everyone else who balance their issues by raising prices 30% for their services, so should they. while transport, lunch etc take a bigger chunk out of their salary.

Inflation is purely a monetary issue.

It has NOTHING TO DO WITH DEFICITS.

At least not in this world

you are wrong. i dont think u understand how government shifts resources to balance books and mitigate negative statistics in the areas that people observe. u take the bait and switch. watch my left hand while i slap u with my right. if all was left naked then with every deficit you would see a decline against foreign currencies. but if you shift a few numbers in the right places you could make a loss appear as a profit to the nation. understand that.

Quoted for stupidity

Can you supply a link that back up your assertion..of the bait and switch??
Or is this based on the same place you selling oil at 150?

it's basic economics. deficit spending is equivalent to printing more money.. ie .. inflation. yuh unnastan de maths?

if we generate true growth of gdp without taking a loan it empowers the dollar. that would reduce prices.

on the podium they dont say, "we are going to create inflation by taking a loan on the heads of future generations. when we die itll be their problem to solve, not ours." they will say the snuggly version that sounds soothing "we will 'deficit spend to boost the corporate sector and create jobs." sounds real nice. but the effect is the same.. inflation when salary rises lag behind. that is politics.

[EFFECTIC DESIGNS]

The question is when is Obama leaving?

We won't have to worry about price of oil if we get back a good warmongering republican.

For example did the Bush war in Iraq not make Russia and Trinidad rich?

Obama seems to indicate since sanctions isn't doing much of anything he intends to do everything in his power to drive down the price of oil to the absolute bottom until Putin gives back Crimea and pulls out of Ukraine

Which is going to happen when exactly? when pigs fly? or when he gives back that part of Georgia?

[bluesclues]

same thing i saying. now they want to sell off state companies. imagine this if you will

a government enters leadership, deficit spends on overpriced projects to their friends and family, expand the size of government with friends and family, place unqualified friends and family in high ranking and critical aspects of the nation's services, and then as the situation deteriorates and the shift numbers to make thing sound good on the podium use all the free money to buy helicopter and finally, justify why the people should support the idea of selling state companies which carry essential services to the running of trinidad to friends and family meaning they will never go out of business ever as long as tax payers need those services.

just give away d country. allyuh better make noise for this. stop them at all cost from these sales. at all cost.

tell she downsize government. imperialism being installed under allyuh nose.

and of course, this comes after the new public procurement bill.. allyuh seeing the steps yet?

[bluesclues]

Nah she won't do that. That's political suicide. But I'm waiting to hear what she says

Don't be surprised if the subsidy on Super will be cut by a % or removed in an effort for people to convert to CNG.

At the pricepoint of oil right now there is little incentive for the government to alter the price of super as the subsidy is significatnly reduced when compared to the price of oil at 100+.

Also they won't alter the price of super until they have delivered on their promise to build new CNG stations. They have lagged behind their goals so far. Governments tend to alter when they think a large portion can adjust easily or the number of affected persons is small (like in the case of premium hike). Altering the price of super before providing a cheap alternative fuel in sufficient requirements would be too shortsighted even for this government. Ah mean south basically has 2 to maybe 4 CNG equipped stations. People leave Ptown and further just to head Sando for CNG.



Any price altering of fuel would happen after a general election and early in an administration's life. 2015 is election year so they not touching that even with a ten foot pole.

Citizens receive a tax break on CNG conversion kits that works out to be about 25% of the kit's cost. CNG kit installation and purchase cost is about $15,000 from Automotive Components Limited so persons can get back $3750. This is the government's incentive to get persons to convert to CNG.

Yep .. agreed.

However, Howai wants to remove the subsidy since he come from the Banking background of balancing the books regardless of the social consequences. He made a big blunder with $80 oil price.

Finance people know very well about business cycles and he failed. He will get the boot very soon.

Howai is the man behind the mistakes and disaster with the calculations of the 2014 Budget.

the thing is you all still think it was an accident. allyuh stay dey and feel they dont know exactly what they doing and what cause and effect it will have. this is a 'pockets as much as possible from the treasury in 5 years cuz we never getting back in power" government.

the next suggestion they will come up with is to sell more state run companies to privatise them. so after raping the treasury and sucking even our reserves dry through wasteful deficit spending they want to justify selling state companies now to they family and friend who will purchase tyem with the same taxpayers money they tief and be set for life because they running economic backbone companies which they basically got for free. you dont need to be PM if you own all the nations most needed companies. the plan is Genius... signature rockefeller. and we back to day one where i tell allyuh we under a corporate takeover where democracy is being subverted to send allyuh ras into slavery. police state, subversion of rights, and install a corporatocracy where companies decide how the nations resources are distributed, not the PM or President or anyone else. the whole government bought and sold, under the thumb of essential services run by private owners.

well done trinidad. i just gone sit back and watch it happen like everyone else is.

coated for extra pleasure

[pete]

Don't worry the PNM can always come back and steal.. I mean nationalize them in the future.

[Redman]

it's basic economics. deficit spending is equivalent to printing more money.. ie .. inflation. yuh unnastan de maths?

no-because its wrong.

Inflation is a sustained increase in asset prices- this can only happen if the economy's ability to supply(or absorb) the resultant demand is exceeded-thereby increasing price.

You are conflating 2 separate issues....in that you can increase money supply but still not be in an inflationary environment--the US is in this scenario,Japan as well I think.

In the US case they running deficits-and inflation is normal.
So they printing the money but the money is being stored in the banks...not stimulating demand.

Again asset prices react to aggregate demand growth which can be fueled by a growth in money supply ...regardless of whether that growth in MS/AD is financed with or without a deficit.

if we generate true growth of gdp without taking a loan it empowers the dollar. that would reduce prices.

[pioneer]

So public servant still expect pay increase?

[orangefox]

it's basic economics. deficit spending is equivalent to printing more money.. ie .. inflation. yuh unnastan de maths?

no-because its wrong.

Inflation is a sustained increase in asset prices- this can only happen if the economy's ability to supply(or absorb) the resultant demand is exceeded-thereby increasing price.

You are conflating 2 separate issues....in that you can increase money supply but still not be in an inflationary environment--the US is in this scenario,Japan as well I think.

In the US case they running deficits-and inflation is normal.
So they printing the money but the money is being stored in the banks...not stimulating demand.

Again asset prices react to aggregate demand growth which can be fueled by a growth in money supply ...regardless of whether that growth in MS/AD is financed with or without a deficit.

if we generate true growth of gdp without taking a loan it empowers the dollar. that would reduce prices.

Inflation can come about when demand exceeds supply. Agreed.
However there may NOT be real demand. In TT you have situations where
due to inefficiencies, specifically with Gov't prices rise.

( The consensus view is that a long sustained period of inflation is
caused by money supply growing faster than the rate of economic growth )

The above is where Howai and the PP has failed.

Where is the economic growth ?

[sMASH]

Just around the time putin was beginning to be annoying to Obama, America was trying to get China to let their yen increase in value. It is well known economically that China is deliberately keeping their yen undervalued to maximize their infrastructure development. I am not too clear on how they keep the value down, but waht it does is allow them to pay peanuts for their labor to get their projects.

Russia striking deals with China to be a major customer of their oil, China holding a bit of American debt, America trying to improve diplomatic relations with Venezuela, China giving any and all countries 'gifts'... Now even Venezuela, American shale gas drops petro prices Rick bottom, and opec decides to leave it there to let a re settling occur.

Waow

[orangefox]

Just around the time putin was beginning to be annoying to Obama, America was trying to get China to let their yen increase in value. It is well known economically that China is deliberately keeping their yen undervalued to maximize their infrastructure development. I am not too clear on how they keep the value down, but waht it does is allow them to pay peanuts for their labor to get their projects.

Russia striking deals with China to be a major customer of their oil, China holding a bit of American debt, America trying to improve diplomatic relations with Venezuela, China giving any and all countries 'gifts'... Now even Venezuela, American shale gas drops petro prices Rick bottom, and opec decides to leave it there to let a re settling occur.

Waow

Chinese Yuan Renminbi not Yen ( Japanese )

[orangefox]

^^

America is the big bad wolf .

Venezuelans love America.
But Trinidad can fall into an economic and political unrest similar to Vene.

And because of falling oil prices with Kamla's PP.
The POS Chamber of Commerce and AmCham are calling on Kamal for the Plan.

[Knight Rider]

^^

America is the big bad wolf .

Venezuelans love America.
But Trinidad can fall into an economic and political unrest similar to Vene.

And because of falling oil prices with Kamla's PP.
The POS Chamber of Commerce and AmCham are calling on Kamal for the Plan.

Trinidad won't have economic and political unrest, it'll be about race. It's what our politics are based on and is a serious underlying issue here. If we were of a single race or were just a unified nation (i wish) then e could all stand together again the politicians. But it's about which party looking out for which race and who would feel insecure etc. So we always screwed.

[boxy]

Just around the time putin was beginning to be annoying to Obama, America was trying to get China to let their yen increase in value. It is well known economically that China is deliberately keeping their yen undervalued to maximize their infrastructure development. I am not too clear on how they keep the value down, but waht it does is allow them to pay peanuts for their labor to get their projects.

Russia striking deals with China to be a major customer of their oil, China holding a bit of American debt, America trying to improve diplomatic relations with Venezuela, China giving any and all countries 'gifts'... Now even Venezuela, American shale gas drops petro prices Rick bottom, and opec decides to leave it there to let a re settling occur.

Waow

Chinese Yuan Renminbi not Yen ( Japanese )

[bluesclues]

it's basic economics. deficit spending is equivalent to printing more money.. ie .. inflation. yuh unnastan de maths?

no-because its wrong.

Inflation is a sustained increase in asset prices- this can only happen if the economy's ability to supply(or absorb) the resultant demand is exceeded-thereby increasing price.

You are conflating 2 separate issues....in that you can increase money supply but still not be in an inflationary environment--the US is in this scenario,Japan as well I think.

i know this perspective you trying to sell me and it is the corporate perspective. im not conflating 2 issues any more than they already are together with others. everything is connected. you think u can take a loan against projected national resources and the lending side doesnt mitigate any risk? there is a butterfly effect. once purchasing power is reduced in the dollar this indicates inflation has occured.

$10 20yrs ago had more purchasing power than $10 now. that is because of inflation of the dollar. the same has occured in the US who has been practicing this deficit spending fsince the 80s. $1 used to buy a big mac with fries and unlimited refills. it is not that way now. the effects are the same. once u artificially increase money supply u end up with inflation once working class salaries arent upgraded same time, if not before! again, the books can look good, growth can be demonstrated. but if the working class not experiencing that growth on a personal level, u end up with recession and depression as more and more people drop out of the job market citing slave wages.

In the US case they running deficits-and inflation is normal.
So they printing the money but the money is being stored in the banks...not stimulating demand.

obviously, inflation is not normal, US is having major budgeting issues and are repeatedly at risk of government shutdowns which further stifle economic activity. regardless of whether you print the money or generate the numbers in the system, suppliers will rework their calculations to maintain their own purchasing power. if salaries were upgraded to the equivalent of new expenditure then the result could be perceived as 0 inflation. and if they were upgraded ahead of purchasing power decline we could perceive negative inflation with is equivalent to growth in purchasing power of the dollar.

Again asset prices react to aggregate demand growth which can be fueled by a growth in money supply ...regardless of whether that growth in MS/AD is financed with or without a deficit.

you now telling me the same thing im saying with fancy wording. ppl raise prices in reaction to increase in money supply thus if salaries have stayed the same through the rise, inflation is the result. doesnt matter whether you print the money into circulation or create it in the system through government and central bank shuffle dance. you are selling the twisted corporate perspective. true gdp growth without increasing money supply naturally means that suppliers will not have any need to raise their prices for trade. especially in relation to importing from international markets. those prices would actually be lowered with continued growth and no increase in money supply.

it is a matter of perspective. but either perspective you take, inflation is the result of the choices being made. and this is the second batch of 50 dollar bills they print into circulation since unc in power.

[bluesclues]

it's basic economics. deficit spending is equivalent to printing more money.. ie .. inflation. yuh unnastan de maths?

no-because its wrong.

Inflation is a sustained increase in asset prices- this can only happen if the economy's ability to supply(or absorb) the resultant demand is exceeded-thereby increasing price.

You are conflating 2 separate issues....in that you can increase money supply but still not be in an inflationary environment--the US is in this scenario,Japan as well I think.

In the US case they running deficits-and inflation is normal.
So they printing the money but the money is being stored in the banks...not stimulating demand.

Again asset prices react to aggregate demand growth which can be fueled by a growth in money supply ...regardless of whether that growth in MS/AD is financed with or without a deficit.

if we generate true growth of gdp without taking a loan it empowers the dollar. that would reduce prices.

Inflation can come about when demand exceeds supply. Agreed.
However there may NOT be real demand. In TT you have situations where
due to inefficiencies, specifically with Gov't prices rise.

( The consensus view is that a long sustained period of inflation is
caused by money supply growing faster than the rate of economic growth )

The above is where Howai and the PP has failed.

Where is the economic growth ?

thank you. the demand is generated for government and private sector(contractors, tax cuts) to play with and simulate growth for the book report. that is why the people on the ground dont see the prosperity being reported in the statistics and accounting.

[nervewrecker]

Just around the time putin was beginning to be annoying to Obama, America was trying to get China to let their yen increase in value. It is well known economically that China is deliberately keeping their yen undervalued to maximize their infrastructure development. I am not too clear on how they keep the value down, but waht it does is allow them to pay peanuts for their labor to get their projects.

Russia striking deals with China to be a major customer of their oil, China holding a bit of American debt, America trying to improve diplomatic relations with Venezuela, China giving any and all countries 'gifts'... Now even Venezuela, American shale gas drops petro prices Rick bottom, and opec decides to leave it there to let a re settling occur.

Waow

Didn't our own PM recently take a loan from China also?

I understand Trincan oil is now being run by some Chinese as of this week too. Not sure if the company has been sold or just Chinese visiting.

But by taking the loan from China won't that make us allies with them if sh!t hits the fan and Russia in charge? (As i reaf somwhere in here that russia trying to secure deals for oil with china....or o need to read over the writing in hurr). But what does that say for out price of oil though?

[j.o.e]

http://www.guardian.co.tt/news/2015-01- ... onomy-plan

Six business organisations—the TT Manufacturers’ Association (TTMA), American Chamber of Commerce (Amcham), San Fernando Business Association, T&T Chamber of Industry and Commerce, Penal/Debe Chamber and the Chaguanas Chamber—also expressed concerns about the lack of details by Persad-Bissessar about solid measures to deal with the falling oil prices during her address to the nation on Thursday night

[Knight Rider]

http://www.guardian.co.tt/news/2015-01-10/rowley-knocks-pm%E2%80%99s-poor-economy-plan

Six business organisations—the TT Manufacturers’ Association (TTMA), American Chamber of Commerce (Amcham), San Fernando Business Association, T&T Chamber of Industry and Commerce, Penal/Debe Chamber and the Chaguanas Chamber—also expressed concerns about the lack of details by Persad-Bissessar about solid measures to deal with the falling oil prices during her address to the nation on Thursday night

Interesting that on the day following the speech, the news reported that the TTMA said they were pleased with the measures etc. Local media be fabricating sheit

[orangefox]

http://www.guardian.co.tt/news/2015-01-10/rowley-knocks-pm%E2%80%99s-poor-economy-plan

Six business organisations—the TT Manufacturers’ Association (TTMA), American Chamber of Commerce (Amcham), San Fernando Business Association, T&T Chamber of Industry and Commerce, Penal/Debe Chamber and the Chaguanas Chamber—also expressed concerns about the lack of details by Persad-Bissessar about solid measures to deal with the falling oil prices during her address to the nation on Thursday night

Not a fan or disciple of Kamla, but she did give details.

She did not give (or cannot) an " economic plan" and the business men above want
or rather are demanding practical solutions.

Judge for yourself. Listen to the speech, if you so desire.

[j.o.e]

Heard the speech the 'details' given were either nonsense or vague... and where did this San Fernando / Mayaro highway talk come from?

[j.o.e]

http://www.trinidadexpress.com/business ... 12091.html

The country’s biggest business group said in a statement later on Thursday night said it noted that Persad-Bissessar acknowledged the “serious situation” that faces the country as a result of the sharp decline in global crude oil prices and the immediate, negative impact on Government’s revenue.
“However, it would appear that the Prime Minister opted to avoid key issues or disclosure of the need for possibly tougher adjustments. We also believe that the Prime Minister missed the opportunity to take the nation into her confidence in terms of sharing important statistical projections in order to adequately prepare ourselves for the challenges ahead,” the Chamber said.
The short-term measures presented lacked economic substance, it said.
“The T&T Chamber calls on the Prime Minister to be more open and transparent in sharing the key underlying assumptions and their likely impact on balance of payments as well as inter alia, foreign exchange availability, the exchange rate, interest and wages. These are the details that businesses and households need to make informed decisions for their sustainability. The Prime Minister also missed the opportunity to impress upon the population the need for restraint in these uncertain times.”

[Knight Rider]

http://www.trinidadexpress.com/business/Chamber--PM-quiet-on-key-issues-288112091.html

The country’s biggest business group said in a statement later on Thursday night said it noted that Persad-Bissessar acknowledged the “serious situation” that faces the country as a result of the sharp decline in global crude oil prices and the immediate, negative impact on Government’s revenue.
“However, it would appear that the Prime Minister opted to avoid key issues or disclosure of the need for possibly tougher adjustments. We also believe that the Prime Minister missed the opportunity to take the nation into her confidence in terms of sharing important statistical projections in order to adequately prepare ourselves for the challenges ahead,” the Chamber said.
The short-term measures presented lacked economic substance, it said.
“The T&T Chamber calls on the Prime Minister to be more open and transparent in sharing the key underlying assumptions and their likely impact on balance of payments as well as inter alia, foreign exchange availability, the exchange rate, interest and wages. These are the details that businesses and households need to make informed decisions for their sustainability. The Prime Minister also missed the opportunity to impress upon the population the need for restraint in these uncertain times.”

at the end of the day if she really had to give details we would have watched television till morning. Look at how long the budget debate goes on, because of ask the details. What she should do is do a press release, written one with all the details so that its clear to everyone.

[Crackpot]

http://www.trinidadexpress.com/business/Chamber--PM-quiet-on-key-issues-288112091.html

The country’s biggest business group said in a statement later on Thursday night said it noted that Persad-Bissessar acknowledged the “serious situation” that faces the country as a result of the sharp decline in global crude oil prices and the immediate, negative impact on Government’s revenue.
“However, it would appear that the Prime Minister opted to avoid key issues or disclosure of the need for possibly tougher adjustments. We also believe that the Prime Minister missed the opportunity to take the nation into her confidence in terms of sharing important statistical projections in order to adequately prepare ourselves for the challenges ahead,” the Chamber said.
The short-term measures presented lacked economic substance, it said.
“The T&T Chamber calls on the Prime Minister to be more open and transparent in sharing the key underlying assumptions and their likely impact on balance of payments as well as inter alia, foreign exchange availability, the exchange rate, interest and wages. These are the details that businesses and households need to make informed decisions for their sustainability. The Prime Minister also missed the opportunity to impress upon the population the need for restraint in these uncertain times.”

at the end of the day if she really had to give details we would have watched television till morning. Look at how long the budget debate goes on, because of ask the details. What she should do is do a press release, written one with all the details so that its clear to everyone.

cop out

[orangefox]

http://www.trinidadexpress.com/business/Chamber--PM-quiet-on-key-issues-288112091.html

The country’s biggest business group said in a statement later on Thursday night said it noted that Persad-Bissessar acknowledged the “serious situation” that faces the country as a result of the sharp decline in global crude oil prices and the immediate, negative impact on Government’s revenue.
“However, it would appear that the Prime Minister opted to avoid key issues or disclosure of the need for possibly tougher adjustments. We also believe that the Prime Minister missed the opportunity to take the nation into her confidence in terms of sharing important statistical projections in order to adequately prepare ourselves for the challenges ahead,” the Chamber said.
The short-term measures presented lacked economic substance, it said.
“The T&T Chamber calls on the Prime Minister to be more open and transparent in sharing the key underlying assumptions and their likely impact on balance of payments as well as inter alia, foreign exchange availability, the exchange rate, interest and wages. These are the details that businesses and households need to make informed decisions for their sustainability. The Prime Minister also missed the opportunity to impress upon the population the need for restraint in these uncertain times.”

at the end of the day if she really had to give details we would have watched television till morning. Look at how long the budget debate goes on, because of ask the details. What she should do is do a press release, written one with all the details so that its clear to everyone.

Agree more like a few days.
But to be fair to Kamla she should allow her Ministers to give the details.
Minsters should be accountable for their own budgets .. and in detail.

[The_Honourable]

Ok so some here bashing Kamla and her speech... no problem.

Has Rowley and the PNM stated in detail what they would have done instead except "cutting back expenditure"? All i'm seeing on their end is to create panic with doom and gloom scenarios. Links would be helpful in case i missed it.