The official tropical weather thread - 2012

[W2J]

we really are blessed!!

WTNT35 KNHC 012354
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
800 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 49.8W
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/H...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE NEAR THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON
THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ON FRIDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

[streetbeastINC.]

seems its dissipated---

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

^ dissipated? No it is still there just north east of T&T

see the previous posts, it is forcasted to pass over Barbados


There it is, TD5

[streetbeastINC.]

..was looking at th sat. and th organisation and rotation not there anymore, dissipation maybe temporary is inevitable for now..conditions changed

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

^ The satellite image will not give all the details:

An area of low pressure over 500 miles east of Barbados in the Lesser Antilles became the Atlantic Basin's 5th tropical depression of the season. The Depression should continue to intensify as it moves west northwest at about 18-20 mph, becoming Tropical Storm Ernesto before the end of the day Thursday. The center of what should be Tropical Storm Ernesto will be in the south central Lesser Antilles Friday night and into the eastern Caribbean on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds right now remain near 35 mph and it won't take much for this depression to become tropical storm Ernesto tonight or Thursday.

[Daran]

the air of dissapointment is strong in this thread

[Hook]

^^^ How do you figure so?

[sMASH]

the air of dissapointment is strong in this thread

if so, let me start to inject some airs of relief.

[searchingone]

It so freaking hot these days (and nights), barely any breeze blowing. Does the depression have anything to do with this or just normal this time of year?

[PariaMan]

Don't place all your faith in God's supposed nationality.

ROFLMAO

for real

thats sig material there

Da man is wearing red, white and black today!


i hope

He May not be a trini but he certainly knows when to put on the old Red White and Black!

[007_1]

MET office says to expect bad whether by friday in today express

[W2J]

^ last night where I live had some stong wind coming from WSW, which is very rare, lighting and rain.

[stev]

very light drizzle in POS and it raise d heat....now its unbearable.

12:16pm

[Hook]

mmm... Trinis and this "drizzle"/"rain" mix up again

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/wrndriz.htm

http://en.mimi.hu/meteorology/drizzle.html

if allyuh really experience drizzle eh...it looks like mist and you could barely feel it on your skin if at all, but your clothes get soaked in minutes...a very rare local occurrence

[Rainman]

Why does snoop dogg need an umbrella?



Fo' drizzle

[xtech]

Proper term is drizzling

[stev]

oh goar, allyuh know what ah mean.

btw....can anyone tell me what the weather is like in central? sun or rain....cyah see d sky from here. lol

[White CZ4A]

hot sun so far in central

[Alexy]

Ernesto is alive! (nhc.noaa.gov)

[pablo_tt]

[Alexy]

yeah that doesnt look right Pablo dude..................... o_o

[maj. tom]

Sat images show a very wicked looking formation coming out of Cape Verde right now, reaching out across half the Atlantic and already showing signs of low pressure rotation.

Let's hope that one misses us too.

[redmanjp]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/022049.shtml

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 5...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM AST THU AUG 02 2012

CORRECTED TO CHANGE DEPRESSION TO STORM IN DISCUSSION SECTION

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE
SEASON...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 56.6W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.6 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE STORM SHOULD BE NEAR THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SURF...LARGE WAVES GENERATED BY ERNESTO WILL BE AFFECTING THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

[sMASH]

i was watching a tornado documentary, and some japanese scientists came to miami to study hurricane destruction when it made land fall. what was interesting is the patterns left on the scenes. the patterns were like swirls of high speed winds in very restricted paths. it seems that within the hurricanes there are multitudes of miniature vortices with far greater wind speeds than the majority of wind, aka, tornadoes.

[Hook]

^^^ downdrafts and microbursts

[sMASH]

you're the experts, i just found it interesting. it seemed plausible that a lot of high energy fluid in motion would have a lot of small scale turbulence... either way destructive like wow.

[streetbeastINC.]

eddying of turbulence^^^

[Country_Bookie]

Tropical Storm watch in effect for countries north of T&T. Interesting that we issue storm warnings for Grenada.

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 PM AST THU AUG 02 2012

...ERNESTO GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES
QUICKLY TOWARDS BARBADOS AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 58.3W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...DATA FROM THE BARBADOS RADAR INDICATED
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 58.3 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H....AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF ERNESTO SHOULD PASS NEAR BARBADOS LATER TONIGHT...BE NEAR
THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY FRIDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SURF...LARGE WAVES GENERATED BY ERNESTO WILL BE AFFECTING THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

[streetbeastINC.]

anyone in Barbados???
looks like they r having direct hit

from the looks we will get the influence of the tail..soon.....

[MISHI]

^^^ downdrafts and microbursts

caused many a disaster in the aviation industry...