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THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL WEATHER THREAD 2023

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Chimera
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Re: THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL WEATHER THREAD 2023

Postby Chimera » May 8th, 2023, 3:48 pm

They have helicopters on standby with large tarpaulins attached doh worry

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Re: THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL WEATHER THREAD 2023

Postby jon_e_lectric » May 12th, 2023, 4:27 pm

What is Brian doing here? :shock:
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DMan7
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Re: THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL WEATHER THREAD 2023

Postby DMan7 » May 12th, 2023, 4:57 pm

IMO it should just be Brian alone, the rest are a complete waste.

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Re: THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL WEATHER THREAD 2023

Postby maj. tom » May 12th, 2023, 5:06 pm

I thought that this was interesting how us laymen are likely interpreting probability and many weather terms wrongly in our heads when it comes to weather reports.


"Chance of rain"


What does 30% chance of precipitation really mean?


━━━━━━━☳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━☳━━━━━━━━━


Another climate probability commonly reported in media and also interpret wrongly by us laymen is the phrase "100-year event."

A common misunderstanding is that a 100-year flood is likely to occur only once in a 100-year period. In fact, there is approximately a 63.4% chance of one or more 100-year floods occurring in any 100-year period. The probability Pe that one or more floods occurring during any period will exceed a given flood threshold can be expressed, using the Binomial Distribution:
Image
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100-year_flood#Probability


Instead of the term "100-year flood" a hydrologist would rather describe this extreme hydrologic event as a flood having a 100-year recurrence interval.
https://www.usgs.gov/special-topics/water-science-school/science/100-year-flood

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Re: THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL WEATHER THREAD 2023

Postby redmanjp » May 12th, 2023, 6:07 pm

DMan7 wrote:IMO it should just be Brian alone, the rest are a complete waste.



well we hope the rest there to learn something from him

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Re: THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL WEATHER THREAD 2023

Postby DMan7 » May 16th, 2023, 3:54 pm


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Re: THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL WEATHER THREAD 2023

Postby redmanjp » May 20th, 2023, 11:09 am

My alarm app which gives weather info said 100% chance of rain today and rain started to fall a while ago in Arima. The next few days also roughly a 100% chance of rain. Is it due to those tropical waves mentioned in the video?

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Re: THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL WEATHER THREAD 2023

Postby DMan7 » May 20th, 2023, 11:14 am

^ You hadda find out from the MET office and it will be the opposite. You know the drill by now.

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Re: THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL WEATHER THREAD 2023

Postby Duane 3NE 2NR » May 20th, 2023, 3:27 pm

redmanjp wrote:My alarm app which gives weather info said 100% chance of rain today and rain started to fall a while ago in Arima. The next few days also roughly a 100% chance of rain. Is it due to those tropical waves mentioned in the video?

The waves are still far away from us - so is the ITCZ
Atl_Tropics-1.gif

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Re: THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL WEATHER THREAD 2023

Postby Dizzy28 » May 20th, 2023, 5:07 pm

Final set of roof work done today

Weather played ball with two weeks of no rain
Phone Surgeon wrote:They have helicopters on standby with large tarpaulins attached doh worry

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Re: THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL WEATHER THREAD 2023

Postby bluefete » May 20th, 2023, 5:20 pm

Whole week I waiting for the rain to fall as per our LOCAL weather forecasters.

Then yesterday, I went to several weather sites and types in T&T. I got exactly what we got today. Slight rain.

Tomorrow, slightly more rain but nothing to talk about.

Waiting for all this rain Seigonie say coming.

Congratulations Dizzy28. The Big Man was watching over you.

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Re: THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL WEATHER THREAD 2023

Postby paid_influencer » May 21st, 2023, 7:50 am

Citizens of Trinidad are advised that heavy showers/T-storms will likely lead to some flooding on Monday 22nd. Take precautions.


--Mora

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Re: THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL WEATHER THREAD 2023

Postby K74T » May 21st, 2023, 7:58 am

Showers ATM in Siparia.

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Re: THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL WEATHER THREAD 2023

Postby Dave » May 21st, 2023, 9:23 am

Steady fall in San Juan

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Re: THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL WEATHER THREAD 2023

Postby Chimera » May 21st, 2023, 9:32 am

Nice showers this mrn in chase village

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Re: THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL WEATHER THREAD 2023

Postby paid_influencer » May 21st, 2023, 3:51 pm

T&T goes under an Adverse Weather Alert Yellow Level from 10pm tonight to 5pm Monday. Bad weather expected between that timeframe.


--Mora

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Re: THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL WEATHER THREAD 2023

Postby pugboy » May 21st, 2023, 4:26 pm

wha the met office saying ?

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st7
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Re: THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL WEATHER THREAD 2023

Postby st7 » May 21st, 2023, 4:45 pm

^^ this


idk why people want to post sheit from unauthorized sources pretending they have credibility, or a following.

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Re: THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL WEATHER THREAD 2023

Postby shake d livin wake d dead » May 21st, 2023, 5:02 pm

Seems to be true

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Re: THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL WEATHER THREAD 2023

Postby MaxPower » May 21st, 2023, 5:24 pm

Anybody check on timelapse?

Hope the dog good

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Re: THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL WEATHER THREAD 2023

Postby redmanjp » May 21st, 2023, 5:26 pm

pugboy wrote:wha the met office saying ?


same thing

Adverse Weather Alert #1 - YELLOW LEVEL!
Start date (local time) Sun, May 21, 2023 10:00 PM
End date (local time) Mon, May 22, 2023 5:00 PM

Issuance time (local time) Sun, May 21, 2023 2:06 PM
Description: There is 70% chance of intermittent rain/showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with the influx of Equatorial moisture. This activity is expected to peak early tomorrow morning (22nd May 2023) and favor Tobago and eastern Trinidad. Street flooding is likely in heavy downpours and gusty winds in excess of 55 km/hr can accompany showers and thunderstorms.
Instructions: Be alert to cloud to ground lightning activity and do not venture into flood waters. Monitor weather conditions and updates from official sources via www.metoffice.gov.tt and www.odpm.gov.tt.
Area description: Trinidad and Tobago


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st7
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Re: THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL WEATHER THREAD 2023

Postby st7 » May 21st, 2023, 8:07 pm

well once the MET office say so, the opposite gonna happen lol

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Re: THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL WEATHER THREAD 2023

Postby DMan7 » May 21st, 2023, 8:11 pm

Tomorrow go be record level sun and heat in we MC. Just watch.

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Re: THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL WEATHER THREAD 2023

Postby pugboy » May 21st, 2023, 8:21 pm

they only hot and sweaty now because the world met say last week this hurricane season will be fairly active along with the rainy season
remember last year september they start off excited with the first lil weather system
had nationwide emergency sand bag program
https://tt.loopnews.com/content/local-g ... ad-weather

after that not much of a peep from them, they didnt even talk about sand bags for the bad weather which caused the nov/dec floods.

st7 wrote:well once the MET office say so, the opposite gonna happen lol

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Re: THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL WEATHER THREAD 2023

Postby maj. tom » May 21st, 2023, 8:27 pm

Weather Underground IBM supercomputer modelling is showing some rain tmrw starting about 3am and getting worse by 9am to 12pm
https://www.wunderground.com/hourly/TTPP/date/2023-05-22


Just be prepared for level f*ckery tmrw on the road, especially those parking in POS.

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Re: THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL WEATHER THREAD 2023

Postby pugboy » May 21st, 2023, 8:52 pm

high tide is around 5am and 6pm

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Re: THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL WEATHER THREAD 2023

Postby redmanjp » May 22nd, 2023, 12:05 am

some moderate to heavy rain in Arima now.

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Re: THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL WEATHER THREAD 2023

Postby abbow » May 22nd, 2023, 12:09 am

thing coming in from the sw

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Re: THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL WEATHER THREAD 2023

Postby bluefete » May 22nd, 2023, 2:17 am

2:17 a.m. and all is quiet.

Accu-weather projects 2.3mm of rain.

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Re: THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL WEATHER THREAD 2023

Postby eitech » May 22nd, 2023, 4:37 am

Quiet at 4.36am. No rain in. Time for work

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