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SuperiorMan
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Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby SuperiorMan » April 11th, 2021, 3:32 am

https://guardian.co.tt/news/economist-t ... 0d0bc18bb1

Although the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected economic growth of 2.1 per cent for T&T this year, economist Dr Roger Hosein yesterday warned that the economy is in dire straits. He said while he has great respect for the IMF’s projection he believes the agency is being overly optimistic about T&T’s economic outlook.

In its latest Global Economic Outlook, the IMF said T&T’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would grow by 2.1 per cent this year and by 4.1 per cent in 2022.

But according to Hosein, the last time the economy grew was in 2018 and that was a mere 0.1 per cent.

He said the IMF’s projections are based on numbers they received from the natural gas and oil sectors but over the last four months of 2020 and the first three months of 2021 natural gas production has been on the decline

“I could be wrong but based on the evidence of the last seven months, my understanding of the econometrics is that this 2.1 per cent could be wrong,” he said in his address at a business luncheon hosted by the Full Gospel Businessmen Fellowship International at Passage of Asia Restaurant in Chaguanas.

Hosein said that T&T’s GDP projection is still lower than the rest of the Caribbean and there is little to celebrate.

“Between 2007 and 2021 we produced 4.379 billion barrels of oil and gas, so you would expect to see something substantial. After producing this oil and gas, we see economic activities going backwards. This bothers me deeply. So we now have an economy that is about 17 per cent lower than in 2014 and that is about 30 per cent to 40 per cent lower than in 2007,” he said.

He added: “Prior to COVID-19 I was very worried about Trinidad and Tobago’s economy and then COVID-19 made it even worse. Then I looked at the World Economic Outlook and that has me concerned.”

Warning that the country is almost broke, Hosein pointed out: “We have some money in the Heritage and Stabilisation Fund (HSF). If you look at the numbers most of the money was spent on transfers and subsidies.”

Hosein noted that T&T’s labour force has been declining over the last few years but he qualified that by saying that he is not fully sure of the reasons.

He called for policymakers to immediately form a task force to determine why the labour force is shrinking and what can be done to reverse it. To solve the problem, he proposes that Government use migrant labour in important sectors.

“There is a potential role for the Venezuelans here. My view is that the re-registration process must register all the Venezuelans here. We want to make sure, we know who are the Venezuelans here and their skills,” he said, adding that the migrants should not be working in informal sector like bars, but in areas of the economy with potential for export.

“When you pass by the bars in Gasparillo you will see Venezuelan girls standing outside and looking for customers to come in. That’s my great concern. This is exactly where we don’t want undocumented workers to go. So if you sell more Johnnie Walker alcohol, you need to get foreign exchange. Then these same Venezuelan go to PriceSmart and they buy and send things home and they use foreign exchange,” he said.

Hosein said the country Government must do its best to improve the ease of doing business as investments are needed to diversify the economy.

Change business culture

Asked what could be done to help the private sector become more competitive and innovative, Hosein said there is a flawed incentive structure that causes business people to import and sell goods from abroad rather than come up with new products.

“One way to change the incentive structure is to devalue the currency. I am not saying that we should devalue the currency immediately,” he said, adding that academia should work together with the business sector to develop solutions. However, it is the role of the Government to take the lead in reforming the economy.

“The state in terms of the ease of doing business is the entity that has the greatest influence in a small economy in influencing change. Most of the big business people in this country do not have big enough pockets,” he said.

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby daring dragoon » April 11th, 2021, 5:49 am

when a company goes bankrupt they fire the board and sell off assets. an the man who fork up the money gets away example HCU
what assets left to sell ? - NP? WASA? TTEC? PORT? AIRPORT? state land such as beaches or beach front areas?
who to blame that will get away?

will diversification save trinidad ? legalize weed , gambling, prostitution, make shopping duty free, remove vat and income taxes making TT ideal to work for foreigners. do like microsoft and make money through "licensing". import license,business license, work permit license, selling /growing weed license (big boys will pay 100k USD to setup and grow weed and have to import seeds, hire local workers, need business license etc) elect people to think outside the box.

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby gastly369 » April 11th, 2021, 6:09 am

Kamla fault.exe

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby De Dragon » April 11th, 2021, 6:36 am

In B4 Red Colostomy Bag, Tunts7 and the other LFD RFD PNM with their "IMF > Roger Hosein" arguments.

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby hover11 » April 11th, 2021, 7:40 am

The only way venes will be positive is if they can go in a bank and get a loan. Loans create new money. They can also pay taxes like everyone else. As it is they are a strain on the economy.

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby De Dragon » April 11th, 2021, 7:55 am

hover11 wrote:The only way venes will be positive is if they can go in a bank and get a loan. Loans create new money. They can also pay taxes like everyone else. As it is they are a strain on the economy.

Caxxos strongly disagrees. Vene is the best thing since slice bread. :roll:

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby matr1x » April 11th, 2021, 8:04 am

Nobody you can fire here, huh pnm?

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby hover11 » April 11th, 2021, 8:06 am

But on a serious note, he is right. Why would the IMF say our economy will experience that amount of growth? What are we exporting? Who is investing? As a matter of fact just yesterday there was an article where investor confidence is down.

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby 88sins » April 11th, 2021, 8:12 am

He saying "the country is almost broke"
I got no idea why he put the "almost" in there.

We are a tiny island with a low rate of production and a high rate of consumption, and have a very strong affinity for goods we don't produce here that we need to import, and we have absolutely no desire or intention to alter that dynamic. Is only so long that can keep going on before the inevitable collapse comes.

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby pugboy » April 11th, 2021, 8:18 am

in b4 “where the money gone” talk

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby zoom rader » April 11th, 2021, 8:30 am

Panama awaiting new government MP residents .

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby Redman » April 11th, 2021, 8:30 am

hover11 wrote:The only way venes will be positive is if they can go in a bank and get a loan. Loans create new money. They can also pay taxes like everyone else. As it is they are a strain on the economy.


Paying taxes would necessitate them having a vote.

Any ones guess as to how that will work out.

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby zoom rader » April 11th, 2021, 8:41 am

Redman wrote:
hover11 wrote:The only way venes will be positive is if they can go in a bank and get a loan. Loans create new money. They can also pay taxes like everyone else. As it is they are a strain on the economy.


Paying taxes would necessitate them having a vote.

Any ones guess as to how that will work out.
Once they settle, they can a pay work permit fee.

That's how the Cayman Islands survive via work permit fees once a year.

The government is making efforts to have them become citizens. They will soon fall in to the net as the dots line up.

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby Redman » April 11th, 2021, 9:21 am

And 20,000 is enough to shift balance on 2 to 3 seats....
That's the ultimate swing block...

I'm ambivalent...but it's worth some thought

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby zoom rader » April 11th, 2021, 9:41 am

Redman wrote:And 20,000 is enough to shift balance on 2 to 3 seats....
That's the ultimate swing block...

I'm ambivalent...but it's worth some thought
Well the government needs to make up their minds on immigration.

It's either they want tax paying immigrants or Trini citizens to continue to pay for these people while they use our service s and health system for free.

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby widdyphuck » April 11th, 2021, 9:48 am

This country would be a poop hole in the next 10 years. Imagine what our children and grandchildren would have to endure.

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby adnj » April 11th, 2021, 10:00 am

The coronavirus effect on global economic sentiment

March 30, 2021 | Survey

In a new global survey, executives see positive momentum building in the economy. But the pandemic still persists as an outsize risk to growth.

One year after the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic, the results of our newest McKinsey Global Survey signal greater optimism about the economy and corporate prospects than respondents have expressed since the crisis began—and on a few fronts, than they have in several years. Still, weak demand continues to threaten corporate growth, and the pandemic remains the biggest risk to growth in respondents’ countries.

Image

https://www.mckinsey.com/business-funct ... sentiment#

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby sMASH » April 11th, 2021, 10:01 am

hover11 wrote:But on a serious note, he is right. Why would the IMF say our economy will experience that amount of growth? What are we exporting? Who is investing? As a matter of fact just yesterday there was an article where investor confidence is down.

what are they measuring and guestimating that we dont see....

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby zoom rader » April 11th, 2021, 10:05 am

adnj wrote:The coronavirus effect on global economic sentiment

March 30, 2021 | Survey

In a new global survey, executives see positive momentum building in the economy. But the pandemic still persists as an outsize risk to growth.

One year after the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic, the results of our newest McKinsey Global Survey signal greater optimism about the economy and corporate prospects than respondents have expressed since the crisis began—and on a few fronts, than they have in several years. Still, weak demand continues to threaten corporate growth, and the pandemic remains the biggest risk to growth in respondents’ countries.

Image

https://www.mckinsey.com/business-funct ... sentiment#
Poor excuse for the red government mis management to blame it on Covid

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby elec2020 » April 11th, 2021, 11:18 am

the imf originally predicted a V shaped recovery for national economies. that was based on the premise of the vaccines ending restrictions. but as we see thus far... even in some countries with high vaccination numbers... restrictions are still in place. idk if IMF ever made public the assumptions and metrics behind their forecasting approach. but i think its more than just looking at our oil and gas numbers. i doubt their models will be so individualistic given that there are over 190 countries in the world. so imf would predict GDP for each country in the world given what governments say they expect the output of their key economic sector to be. so for instance, they will predict: Barbados' GDP based on governments expectations on tourist arrivals; Signapore's GDP based on governments expectations on manufacturing: Chile's GDP based on governments expectations on mining? that seems like something that would require too much effort as u essentially need over 190 unique econometric models

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby SuperiorMan » April 11th, 2021, 12:30 pm

88sins wrote:He saying "the country is almost broke"
I got no idea why he put the "almost" in there.

We are a tiny island with a low rate of production and a high rate of consumption, and have a very strong affinity for goods we don't produce here that we need to import, and we have absolutely no desire or intention to alter that dynamic. Is only so long that can keep going on before the inevitable collapse comes.


Just curious when do you think that collapse will be? How soon?

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby elec2020 » April 11th, 2021, 12:31 pm

î give it ending 2022... early 2023

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby SuperiorMan » April 11th, 2021, 12:32 pm

elec2020 wrote:î give it ending 2022... early 2023


How come so early? and what kind? do you think venezuela level collapse?

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby Dohplaydat » April 11th, 2021, 12:33 pm

elec2020 wrote:the imf originally predicted a V shaped recovery for national economies. that was based on the premise of the vaccines ending restrictions. but as we see thus far... even in some countries with high vaccination numbers... restrictions are still in place. idk if IMF ever made public the assumptions and metrics behind their forecasting approach. but i think its more than just looking at our oil and gas numbers. i doubt their models will be so individualistic given that there are over 190 countries in the world. so imf would predict GDP for each country in the world given what governments say they expect the output of their key economic sector to be. so for instance, they will predict: Barbados' GDP based on governments expectations on tourist arrivals; Signapore's GDP based on governments expectations on manufacturing: Chile's GDP based on governments expectations on mining? that seems like something that would require too much effort as u essentially need over 190 unique econometric models


Wait a few months before making conclusions on recovery, first world nations will come out of this booming. The vaccines are making a huge difference, look at the UK.

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby Dohplaydat » April 11th, 2021, 12:38 pm

elec2020 wrote:î give it ending 2022... early 2023


What are you guys defining an economic collapse as?

Anyway, if it's inevitable, expect an election to be called before the effects are really felt, possibly 2023.

Before a 3rd party gets a good footing.

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby elec2020 » April 11th, 2021, 12:55 pm

SuperiorMan wrote:
elec2020 wrote:î give it ending 2022... early 2023


How come so early? and what kind? do you think venezuela level collapse?


there is no plan to revitalise the economy. the recovery plan when i went into it spoke about construction being the driver of the recovery effort. however, construction does not generate for ex (unless u can now export highways). any economy lives and dies by how much for ex it can generate. and there is no real plan to get back for ex. as dr. farell put it, the hope is basically that oil and gas will help us to recover. but that is a naïve given push to greener energies. tnt can no longer rely on this sector as the bread winner. additionally, there is no plan to get out of lockdowns. and lockdowns has cost job and businesses leading to less taxes. the longer lockdowns persist the more businesses are turning to tech to reduce staff dependence. resulting in less employment. and ironically less business sales. imo we in a sheit storm and its only a matter of time till we get found out

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby elec2020 » April 11th, 2021, 12:57 pm

Dohplaydat wrote:
elec2020 wrote:î give it ending 2022... early 2023


What are you guys defining an economic collapse as?

Anyway, if it's inevitable, expect an election to be called before the effects are really felt, possibly 2023.

Before a 3rd party gets a good footing.


um i would define it as a significant contraction in economic growth as well as official reserves. and a massive increase in unemployment and emigration

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby elec2020 » April 11th, 2021, 1:05 pm

Dohplaydat wrote:
elec2020 wrote:the imf originally predicted a V shaped recovery for national economies. that was based on the premise of the vaccines ending restrictions. but as we see thus far... even in some countries with high vaccination numbers... restrictions are still in place. idk if IMF ever made public the assumptions and metrics behind their forecasting approach. but i think its more than just looking at our oil and gas numbers. i doubt their models will be so individualistic given that there are over 190 countries in the world. so imf would predict GDP for each country in the world given what governments say they expect the output of their key economic sector to be. so for instance, they will predict: Barbados' GDP based on governments expectations on tourist arrivals; Signapore's GDP based on governments expectations on manufacturing: Chile's GDP based on governments expectations on mining? that seems like something that would require too much effort as u essentially need over 190 unique econometric models


Wait a few months before making conclusions on recovery, first world nations will come out of this booming. The vaccines are making a huge difference, look at the UK.


if it was so succesful then why is the government pushing for a covid passport system? if the vaccine works so well then why do u have to ban those who do not have the vaccine from everyday activities? the vaccine was meant to protect the most vulnerable? no?

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby 88sins » April 11th, 2021, 1:17 pm

SuperiorMan wrote:
elec2020 wrote:î give it ending 2022... early 2023


How come so early? and what kind? do you think venezuela level collapse?

If the course isn't corrected, probably about mid-end 2022, and this course cannot be corrected by taxation of the local population. Trying to do so would be just as effective as a person standing in a bucket and trying to lift said bucket off the ground. We may end up doing the usual beg and borrow thing, digging the hole a bit deeper, and praying things turn around in the energy sector. Or, we may be able to renegotiate with our creditors, deferring or reducing payments.
We have to keep in mind, our main problem is forex, specifically the lack thereof, and that we import the bulk of what we consume, and we pay for those imports with forex. Without addressing our dependence on imports, it would be at best very difficult to fix the problem.

As regards the severity of the outcome, (and this is just an idea of what one can expect, not a prediction), us ending up in a position akin to Venezuela is very possible. Eventually, one can expect shortages of basic commodities like flour, rice, sugar, oil, meds, fuel, etc. Also, the eventual decline in production and ultimate shutdown of several local companies, causing a swift uptick in unemployment levels. When it starts, the negative effects will probably be seen to happen in quick succession and have the appearance of a cascade effect on local production and by extension the wider population.


For now, all the public can do is watch and wait and brace for impact, and pray that God is really a Trini.

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Re: Economist: The country is almost broke

Postby zoom rader » April 11th, 2021, 1:22 pm

Boy oh boy red government made a total f up and then who suppprt these crooks turn around and blame kams.

Good going

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