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The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

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hover11
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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby hover11 » June 29th, 2022, 9:12 am

Not after the joke of a met office we have....99.9 percent wrong , how?

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby teems1 » June 29th, 2022, 9:24 am

hover11 wrote:Not after the joke of a met office we have....99.9 percent wrong , how?


NHC is part of the US Weather Service.

Met Office is just piggybacking off their info.

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby VexXx Dogg » June 29th, 2022, 9:29 am

If you were following their updates, they weren't wrong at all.
The storm changed course as it moved closer and they adjusted their models and forecasts to suit.

Areas in Tobago got hit, but not bad because it wasn't TS strength winds - I think they said 75kph recorded.

Just because areas were spared impact due to the shift, does not minimise the efforts by NHC/TTMET/TTWC.

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby Dohplaydat » June 29th, 2022, 10:23 am

Why was the forecast wrong? Here's what I know.

Many of the models for weather prediction of storms are not accurate.

Hurricane/storm models have high variability and often the model you see is the average of many models. However, many probably don't account for the effects of having the Orinoco river emptying out just south east of Trinidad, skewing the results.

Model forecasts also take a while to generate, therefore whatever you see online was done on data available a few hours before.

Therefore, as soon as I saw the storm slightly shift upwards I knew all models forecasting a direct hit would be wrong.

My 2cents. I am not a weatherman.
Last edited by Dohplaydat on June 29th, 2022, 11:17 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby shake d livin wake d dead » June 29th, 2022, 11:58 am

hover11 wrote:Not after the joke of a met office we have....99.9 percent wrong , how?


For once the met office can't shoulder the blame here. Almost every single international weather station were reporting a direct hit to us. The NHC had their expectations as well. That's just the weather for you.

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby Chimera » June 29th, 2022, 12:08 pm

god like hes really a trini yes

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby SuperMan9999 » June 29th, 2022, 12:54 pm

Although the weather is not linear but chaotic, MET should have been better at communicating with the general public it was common knowledge this storm was never gonna hit us again as soon as it was 5 PM furthermore we are outside of the hurricane belt.

A bunch of people on this forum drinking rum were better at predicting the weather than MET, not a good image for them.

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby xtech » June 29th, 2022, 1:18 pm

If our Doppler radar was working it would of helped the forecasters make a better forecast model.

they had to increase the range of the radar system in Barbados to cover TNT since our system is dead.

https://www.barbadosweather.org/

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby redmanjp » June 29th, 2022, 1:18 pm

SuperMan9999 wrote:Although the weather is not linear but chaotic, MET should have been better at communicating with the general public it was common knowledge this storm was never gonna hit us again as soon as it was 5 PM furthermore we are outside of the hurricane belt.

A bunch of people on this forum drinking rum were better at predicting the weather than MET, not a good image for them.


Grenada not too far from us but they got the brunt of it -hurricane force gusts! and ivan mash them up years ago. so we still cant take these storms for granted:

OFFICIAL STATEMENT
The Tropical Storm Warning was lifted as of 11:00pm Tuesday 28th June, 2022. The centre of the disturbance which was a strong tropical wave, made its way across Trinidad during the early night hours, however impactful weather was minimal. The low – latitude and brisk movement speed of the system made it difficult for organization and development into a Tropical Storm to take place. Whilst parts of Tobago and eastern Trinidad received rainfall from this event, Grenada got the brunt of it, with flooding reported in some areas and wind gusts of up to 118 km/hr. As of 5:00am this morning the system was located at 11.3N 65.4W, with maximum sustained winds of 35kt. Since entering the Caribbean sea, the system looks more defined, but it still remains labelled as Potential Tropical Cyclone #2.

After the passage of this strong tropical wave, the atmosphere remains generally moist and unstable so there is still the likelihood for impactful weather today. As a result, an Adverse Weather Alert is in effect until 6:00pm.

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby Duane 3NE 2NR » June 29th, 2022, 1:33 pm

Multiple internatinional models put the center of the system as passing straight across Trinidad up to yesterday evening.
The system became disorganised which makes it difficult to track.
A large part of the system developed west of Grenada yesterday evening causing a new center to form north of us.
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MET Office wasn't any more off than the international forecasters

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby Chimera » June 29th, 2022, 1:45 pm

To tell you the truth my knee wasn't hurting anymore than usual. Daz when I know it wsnt going to hit

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby MaxPower » June 29th, 2022, 2:25 pm

j.o.e wrote:Another miss as expected my only concern is that trinis never gonna take a storm warning serious


As with everything else.

But when the time does come, it gonna be chaos.

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby Les Bain » June 29th, 2022, 2:30 pm

MaxPower wrote:
j.o.e wrote:Another miss as expected my only concern is that trinis never gonna take a storm warning serious


As with everything else.

But when the time does come, it gonna be chaos.


Purely anecdotal but in my corner of the world people took it seriously. Highway and neighborhood looked and sounded like a throwback to the curfew last night - even the noise pests.

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby j.o.e » June 29th, 2022, 2:37 pm

Les Bain wrote:
MaxPower wrote:
j.o.e wrote:Another miss as expected my only concern is that trinis never gonna take a storm warning serious


As with everything else.

But when the time does come, it gonna be chaos.


Purely anecdotal but in my corner of the world people took it seriously. Highway and neighborhood looked and sounded like a throwback to the curfew last night - even the noise pests.


That’s the thing this is the first time I’ve seen people take it seriously. Had no setta liming in bars etc.
so now we will regress.

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby Dohplaydat » June 29th, 2022, 2:41 pm

Duane 3NE 2NR wrote:Multiple internatinional models put the center of the system as passing straight across Trinidad up to yesterday evening.
The system became disorganised which makes it difficult to track.
A large part of the system developed west of Grenada yesterday evening causing a new center to form north of us.
Image
MET Office wasn't any more off than the international forecasters


I used to have more trust in these models, but I've seen countless times how inaccurate they are, especially when approaching land, things get very chaotic.

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby redmanjp » June 29th, 2022, 2:46 pm

the system was disorganized and had reformed the centre way higher so was hard to track.

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby PariaMan » June 29th, 2022, 2:47 pm

We are at the Edge of the hurricane belt for a reason

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby hover11 » June 29th, 2022, 3:58 pm

PariaMan wrote:We are at the Edge of the hurricane belt for a reason
God issa trini....we in paradise

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby aaron17 » June 29th, 2022, 4:48 pm

Which God you all talkin bout? the rum God?

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The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby MaxPower » June 29th, 2022, 4:50 pm

Now friends it have a next piece of weather approaching.

No need to panic, it is no setta weather really.

Use the down time to start preparing for many other weather developments.

Allyuh Trinis dont wait for the night before na to be dotishly and annoyingly scrambling and causing a set of disorder and chaos.

Start preparing from now. Rather than buying a blasted bottle of rum, buy a first aid kit, buy a flashlight, fire extinguisher, insulated handle tools, fix yuh blasted roof before it fly off and damage someone or property. Clean the drains to get free flowing water and get that stink smell out.

Come on Trinis.
Last edited by MaxPower on June 29th, 2022, 4:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby pugboy » June 29th, 2022, 4:51 pm

the current constant rain is also cause for concern

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby SuperMan9999 » June 29th, 2022, 5:08 pm

MaxPower wrote:Now friends it have a next piece of weather approaching.

No need to panic, it is no setta weather really.

Use the down time to start preparing for many other weather developments.

Allyuh Trinis dont wait for the night before na to be dotishly and annoyingly scrambling and causing a set of disorder and chaos.

Start preparing from now. Rather than buying a blasted bottle of rum, buy a first aid kit, buy a flashlight, fire extinguisher, insulated handle tools, fix yuh blasted roof before it fly off and damage someone or property. Clean the drains to get free flowing water and get that stink smell out.

Come on Trinis.


You appear to be a person who speaks from the heart I do not know why other members of this forum seek to attack you.

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby j.o.e » June 29th, 2022, 5:09 pm

pugboy wrote:the current constant rain is also cause for concern


It’s not called rainy season for nothing

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby SuperMan9999 » June 29th, 2022, 5:10 pm

PariaMan wrote:We are at the Edge of the hurricane belt for a reason


indeed the good lord is a Trini, this was first evident to me when he sent Mr Imbert to steer this ship clear during the harsh storm of Covid and he delivered we are free from the IMF and Mr Imbert is now rebuilding this country, to me this is a sign of our Lord Christ sending the right people to keep us afloat.

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby teems1 » June 29th, 2022, 5:17 pm

Heavy rain in Chaguanas.

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby pugboy » June 29th, 2022, 5:31 pm

keep the sandbags in place

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby Chimera » June 29th, 2022, 6:21 pm

Heavy constant rain in aranguez

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby DMan7 » June 29th, 2022, 6:22 pm

Yea boi ^

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby VexXx Dogg » June 29th, 2022, 6:30 pm

Waterloo took about 45 mins of constant heavy rain.

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby st7 » June 29th, 2022, 6:35 pm

SuperMan9999 wrote:
MaxPower wrote:Now friends it have a next piece of weather approaching.

No need to panic, it is no setta weather really.

Use the down time to start preparing for many other weather developments.

Allyuh Trinis dont wait for the night before na to be dotishly and annoyingly scrambling and causing a set of disorder and chaos.

Start preparing from now. Rather than buying a blasted bottle of rum, buy a first aid kit, buy a flashlight, fire extinguisher, insulated handle tools, fix yuh blasted roof before it fly off and damage someone or property. Clean the drains to get free flowing water and get that stink smell out.

Come on Trinis.


You appear to be a person who speaks from the heart I do not know why other members of this forum seek to attack you.


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