Mid-year Review highlights at a glance

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

• There will be no drastic or sudden depreciation of T&T’s currency.

• Central Bank to give priority to manufacturing/trade whenever it intervenes in Forex disbursement to commercial banks.

• Government revenue for the year revised upward from $47.4 billion to $48.0 billion, due to increase of $575 million from petroleum companies’ taxes.

• Overall Government deficit for 2017 now projected at $5.9 billion compared with original projection of $6.0 billion.

•Increased $1b energy sector 2017 tax collections to $3.6 billion.

• Progress made towards bringing national accounts into balance.

• Gas production improvement in the first six months of 2017; natural gas prices strengthened.

• Oil production back up to almost 76,000 barrels daily

• Central Statistical Office says no official GDP estimates for 2017 or revised estimates for 2016 will be released until prior to 2018 Budget. Available evidence suggests real GDP “could show small increase” in 2017.

• Three new loans in 2017 - all $1b bonds for budgetary support; one new government-guaranteed $90m loan for completion of Brian Lara Stadium.

• Public sector programme implementation expected to increase based on US$300m Andean Bank loan.

• Income tax collections were $743 million - 11 per cent, higher than projected.

• Shortfall on projected VAT collections in the first half of the year of $669 million.

• Inflation remained subdued between 2.5 and 3.6 per cent.

• Food inflation down from 18.2 per cent in 2014 to 7.7 per cent in January 2017.

• Unemployment rate rose over half a per cent to 4.0 per cent at the end of 2016 from 3.4 per cent a year earlier. Number of unemployed rose to 25,500 by the end of 2016 from 21,900 the year before.

• Foreign Reserves fell by 12 per cent from US$10.4 billion in 2014 to US$9.1 billion in April 2017. Import cover fell from 12 months in 2014 to 10 months in 2017.

• Tax collections from petroleum companies increased.

• Government expenditure for the half year was $23.5B. - 14 per cent lower than projected.

• Public Servants’ backpay “largely satisfied.”

• HSF Fund balance increased by US$100 million, to US$5.54 billion at end of April.

• Public debt for the first six months of 2017 increased to $89.1 billion - an increase in T&T debt-to-GDP ratio of 1 percentage point from 60.1 per cent to 61.1 per cent.

• Gambling Industry Control Commission operationalised in fiscal 2018.

• FCB IPO yielded $1.025 billion.

• Sale of National Gas Company’s 40,248,000 Class B shares to be launched shortly.

• Divestment of Trinidad Generation Unlimited (TGU) advancing, with pursuit of Independent Power Producer (IPP) or other suitably qualified private sector investor for 40 per cent of TGU.

• IMF assisting legal/fiscal framework for oil/gas operations. Supplemental Petroleum tax review to increase revenues.

• Dragon Field’s first gas expected 2019-2020.

• Petrotrin-Finance talks to identify cost-effective solution for Petrotrin to meet 2019 debt service obligation without Government guarantee. Strategies include partial refinancing of its US$850m bond on domestic market, followed by international bond.

• Petrotrin review team’s report next month.

• World Bank visits in June for review of public expenditure in education, health, social protection and other sectors to inform fiscal consolidation programme.

• Final round of stakeholder talks ahead on legislation to separate HSF Fund.

• Arrangement with Fitch Ratings Inc to be finalised shortly for “more balanced perspective to T&T’s credit rating.”

• Parliamentary committee deliberations on Insurance Bill completed in June.

• Inland Revenue Board, Central Bank guidelines on point for Fatca deadlines. Banks indicate readiness including already obtaining client information for Fatca exchange.

• Opposition support needed for legislation to ensure T&T compliance with Global Forum information sharing commitment by 2018.

http://www.guardian.co.tt/news/2017-05- ... hts-glance

[4a70]

They didnt say anything directly about gate.... does anyone know whats going to be the situation for the next academic year when regestration happens in september?

[Dizzy28]

GATE will be whatever was announced last year r.e. Household income and a reduction in the assistance. That announcement was made with the intention for it to be effective from Sep 2017 which we are still 4 months off.

TBH given that the IMF has been here for a while and have made recommendations which if implemented would make the population hate the Government even more I think the PNM have done well to continue to insulate particularly the lower and middle class against what the real economic situation of the country is.

True they may be putting in a property tax but the IMF has hinted that our exchange rate is 50% undervalued at the REER model. {https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2016/cr16204.pdf]. Can you imagine what the cost of living increase would be to the lower and middle class if the exchange rate was to go to the equilibrium the IMF wants??

[sMASH]

remember they were pushing for the rapid rail...

they re introduced VAT on school books, spent money on a stadium that not going to recover its money anytime soon, causing havoc in tobago by employing slow small, ferry, that would cause a lot of repairs to the businesses who would need to recover those repair costs, found 250 mil for internet company, installing wifi on buses and junctions.
continued with the removal of subsidies on fuel prices..

but, they were pushing for rapid rail. that alone would tell u that they aint have a clue what they a doing.

that assness of of having an added tax for online purchases. a lot of people HAVE to buy stuff online because they can't get the stuff here. and i am talking about veterinarians, medical practitioners etc.
the only people who that online tax is helping are the friends of the ministers who have big business and can get USd easily, and the government themself cause plenty things still need to be bought online.

if they cause the USd to increase to its natural exchange rate, they could reduce the hemaorage of USd, and allow the big man and the little man to compete on the same level, with respect to pricing.

[Dizzy28]

remember they were pushing for the rapid rail...

they re introduced VAT on school books, spent money on a stadium that not going to recover its money anytime soon, causing havoc in tobago by employing slow small, ferry, that would cause a lot of repairs to the businesses who would need to recover those repair costs, found 250 mil for internet company, installing wifi on buses and junctions.
continued with the removal of subsidies on fuel prices..

but, they were pushing for rapid rail. that alone would tell u that they aint have a clue what they a doing.

that assness of of having an added tax for online purchases. a lot of people HAVE to buy stuff online because they can't get the stuff here. and i am talking about veterinarians, medical practitioners etc.
the only people who that online tax is helping are the friends of the ministers who have big business and can get USd easily, and the government themself cause plenty things still need to be bought online.

if they cause the USd to increase to its natural exchange rate, they could reduce the hemaorage of USd, and allow the big man and the little man to compete on the same level, with respect to pricing.

The inflationary impact of a devaluation by 50% would take quite a toll on the middle and lower class. Given that everything we consume is imported and even the inputs into almost all manufacturing is imported as well we would immediately see a reduction in spending power as well the value of savings.

TBH I rather see they curtail US$ spending through taxes such as online taxes and other means such as duties and tariffs as it is essentially a choice tax---(you don't buy online you don't pay the tax, you buy little you pay little tax, you buy a lot you pay a lot of tax) rather that a wholesale devaluation in which case everything goes up in the country. Those on lower incomes (and who don't purchase online or purchase online a lot) would be very much affected by a "natural exchange rate" rather disproportionately to their earning power.

[sMASH]

poor people could eat cassava and yam.. plenty comin out from the countryside. when u go market, some stuff from foreign, but a lot from local. the point of the OPT was to force customers to buy local and reduce spending. the problem with that is that many of the stuff bought online are either too expensive down here, not simply not available. but food, we have a lot being produced locally, and many retrenched people are getting into farming, so a lot more producers will come on the market soon.
the people who need to count pennies will be able to buy local.

we can and do produce a lot of food. the people who can't afford imported food, can make do with local food.

the OPT taxes are just allowing big businesses to mark up their goods to match what a single online shopper will have to pay to bring it in. making the rich man richer and reducing the purchasing power of the smaller man unnecessarily.





u want them to keep the USd price low, but impose taxes on certain things. who will decide what will be taxed? what will determine if the tax is varied for importer to importer, or good to good?

all very subjective avenues and opens up a lot of room for unfair, preferential treatment( bobol)

making the USd real in price gonna force EVERY ONE from big to small, minister friend to non minister friend, to see if they really need to buy foreign goods or not.


i see ur point, but INSHAN ISHMAEL was saying that we waste too much money as citizens who poor, we asking for food card and have 40" flat panel tv in the house. we begging for cepep wuk and every month is a boat cruise.
so, we have to cut down on foreign imports, but by makeing the big man also subject to the hard decisions as to if to buy the USd or not.
ur way, only the small man will feel it.

[The_Honourable]

Kevin Ramnarine on the mid-year review:



Mariano Brown on the mid-year review: