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adnj
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Re: Gas prices to raise, again.

Postby adnj » June 10th, 2022, 8:26 am

sMASH wrote:
K_J_R wrote:
bluefete wrote:.....


i thought their selling electric cars because most manufacturers are swithing to electric an hybrid all arond d world.

?
To fork out money for a whole new platform, u have to make the old one too expensive to maintain.


The reason for the OEMs' switch to EV is due to the continued cost increases for ICE vehicle production.
ICE vehicle production costs have been creeping up for nearly 100 years due in most part to the cost of the engine and transmission.

The EV Price Gap Narrows

June 25, 2021 | Colin McKerracher, Head of Advanced Transport, BloombergNEF

Electric vehicles should be cheaper to buy on average than combustion vehicles in about five years, without subsidies. That’s the main conclusion from new analysis from BNEF, but the high-level summary hides a lot of nuance, and I want to highlight some of that here.

First, a note on what EV ‘price parity’ is and isn’t: “price parity” refers to the point at which an automaker can theoretically build and sell an EV with the same margin as a comparable combustion vehicle, assuming no subsidies are available.

In practice, actual vehicle pricing strategies will vary by automaker. Just last month Ford announced that its electric F-150 Lightning would start at a similar price in the U.S. to the traditional F-150, even though the manufacturing cost is likely still higher. There are also a lot of government policies and subsidies affecting the market right now. In markets like Norway for example, EVs are already cheaper up front because of favorable taxation.

For its analysis, BNEF looked at all of the different components that go into a vehicle and evaluated those that would be affected by a shift to EVs; it also measured how those costs would change over time. There are the obvious parts, like the drivetrain, but there are also less obvious ones like wiring (which can be cheaper in an EV) and the heating and ventilation system (likely more expensive on the EV because of the lack of thermal output from the engine).

Image

One of the most interesting results of the analysis was that battery pack prices need to drop well below $100 per kilowatt hour (kWh) for EVs to reach parity — that rate has long been held out as the benchmark for reaching this point. But given consumer preferences for higher ranges and heavier vehicles the magic number looks closer to $80/kWh in Europe and the U.S., and even lower in some other markets with cheaper vehicles. Taking it a step further, $60/kWh is a good benchmark for when EVs are cheaper than combustion vehicles in all segments and countries. BNEF expects battery prices to reach $80/kWh in 2026 and $60/kWh in 2029, down from $137/kWh in 2020.

Image

https://about.bnef.com/blog/the-ev-price-gap-narrows/

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Re: Gas prices to raise, again.

Postby bluefete » June 10th, 2022, 8:47 am

adnj: Great read. Thanks.

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Re: Gas prices to raise, again.

Postby adnj » June 10th, 2022, 9:01 am

bluefete wrote:adnj: Great read. Thanks.
You're welcome.

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Re: Gas prices to raise, again.

Postby MaxPower » June 10th, 2022, 10:06 am

bluefete wrote:adnj: Great read. Thanks.


X3000

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Re: Gas prices to raise, again.

Postby bluefete » June 11th, 2022, 8:51 pm

Fortune
You may be stuck paying high gas prices for years as a global metals shortage sabotages the electric car revolution


Tristan Bove
Fri, June 10, 2022, 6:30 AM
Metals are quickly becoming the new oil as fossil fuels are phased out and replaced with clean energy and electric cars.

The green energy transition relies on mining to produce enough lithium, cobalt, and nickel for the expected boom in solar panels, wind turbines, and electric car batteries over the next decade.

The only problem is that most of those metals are already in short supply. Paltry investments by governments in mining, the complexity of recycling rare metals, and geopolitical trade squabbles are already hampering metal production.

In a recent note to investors, Bank of America analysts warned of a shortage of many critical elements, including rare earth metals that are harder to produce, just as demand is starting to soar.

Many of these metals are abundant in the Earth’s crust, but tend to be in low concentrations and are expensive to separate and refine. And while soaring use of these elements has pushed their prices to record highs, it’s feared that modest increases in mining will be unable to meet the demand.

“Commodity prices have risen, making it more attractive for investors,” Liesbet Grégoir, a metals and mining researcher at Belgian University KU Leuven, told Fortune. “But there is not enough in the pipeline yet. Developing mining projects takes time, and there is a real risk we’re not starting early enough.”

‘A very precarious supply-demand imbalance’
To meet their goals for reducing carbon emissions, countries are depending on the clean energy revolution, which will include huge demand for renewable energy infrastructure and electric vehicles.

The booming interest in electric vehicles over the next decade will see demand for lithium—a crucial metal in EV battery manufacturing—increase 40 times, according to a report last year from The International Energy Agency, a global energy watchdog. Demand for other metals used in batteries and solar panels, like graphite, cobalt, and nickel, is expected to multiply 20 to 25 times current levels.

“Rare earth materials are fundamental building blocks and their applications are very wide across modern life,” Matt Schloustcher, senior vice president of communications and policy at rare earth mining operator MP Minerals, told Fortune. But he added that “one third of the demand in 2035 is not projected to be satisfied based on investments that are happening now.”

MP Minerals operates the Mountain Pass Mine in Nevada, the only rare earth mining and processing facility in the U.S. Around 15% of the world’s rare earth element supply is sourced from Mountain Pass, according to MP Minerals. In February, the facility received $35 million in federal funding to expand its rare earth separating and processing operations.

The global clean energy transition has pushed automakers to make massive investments to electrify their cars, but the industry is set to run into a brick wall sooner rather than later. At current extraction rates, carmakers will need more mining to hit industry forecasts of as many as 300 million electric vehicles on the road worldwide by 2030, as will countries to meet their commitments to achieve net-zero carbon emissions.

Many of the metals that are necessary for the energy transition can only be obtained as byproducts after refining other minerals, an expensive and lengthy project. For instance, tellurium, an important element in certain solar panel manufacturing processes, is primarily a byproduct of copper refining. And as many as nine metals and rare earth elements critical to manufacturing LED lights are byproducts of aluminum, copper, zinc, and lead production.

Unless more investment is redirected towards these processes, the production of byproduct metals will fail to keep up with rising demand.

“That investment in the downstream is not being matched by investment in the upstream,” Schloustcher said. “There's a very precarious supply-demand imbalance for the critical minerals that are the inputs that enable these technologies.”

Running out of time
With demand from automakers and renewable energy companies expected to surge in the next decade, fixing these upstream supply issues is an immediate concern for mining companies worldwide. But the huge expense of new mining projects, which can require years to set up, are only part of the problem. The other issue is geopolitics.

China controls 80% of the global rare earth metal refining industry. While the U.S. has ramped up its own domestic production targets, China’s dominance means that the West risks being cut out of the supply chain entirely.

Last year, China tightened regulations on rare earth exports to the U.S., and implemented laws that gave Beijing more control over global supply chains. In 2019, the U.S. received 80% of its rare earth minerals from China, while Europe depended on China for 98% of its supply.

“A great many factors influence the potential for shortages,” a U.S. Geological Survey spokesperson told Fortune. “International trade tensions and conflict are well-known reasons, but there are many other possibilities. Disease outbreaks, natural disasters, and even domestic civil strife can affect a country’s mineral industry and its ability to export mineral commodities to the U.S.”

A key factor in stabilizing the metal supply could be recycling, but many experts agree that while technically possible and likely necessary, it is underdeveloped. To recycle lithium, nickel, and cobalt used in electric vehicle batteries, for instance, automakers must either shred and burn dead batteries or dissolve them in acid before extracting the metal. Neither process is very efficient, however, as smelting is energy-intensive and acid baths can corrode and damage the metal.

Research on recycling metals is progressing, and several startups are working on more efficient methods. But progress has been slow, with the Energy Department estimating in 2019 that lithium-ion batteries are collected and recycled at a rate of less than 5%.

“Over the medium- to long-term, recycled or end-of-life metals can become a very valuable source of feedstock that complements the mining of raw material,” Schloustcher said. “But what we're looking at in the near-term is demand for rare earths basically tripling.”

Through 2050, improved recycling of metals could help supply chains stabilize. But that necessary infrastructure is still a long way off, and experts say the critical time to fix the supply-demand imbalance is now.

“By 2050, we might be okay if recycling efforts kick in,” said KU Leuven’s Grégoir. “But the real challenge is the next decade where recycling can’t play a role yet. There is a serious risk that serious efforts to ramp up clean technologies will be hampered by metal shortages.”

Schloustcher added: “There is not enough material in operation today where a closed loop recycling system, even if everything was 100% recycled, could meet this growing demand. Recycling is very important, but we're gonna need a lot more mining to meet the demand that most analysts project is on the horizon in the near term.”

Some Comments:

Paul
1 day ago

Gee, I like it when these plans to transition to an all electric vehicle fleet are so well thought out.

We will just wave a wand and by decree we will have an all electric vehicle fleet in less than twenty years and we will just plug them in at home to recharge them.

Of course we will just ignore a few things like:
A completely different set of raw materials will be needed and at much higher quantities than currently available
Not all people live in their own homes. What about renters and especially people that live in apartments and condominiums?
The transition from gasoline to electricity will require about a 50% increase in electric generating capacity in order to meet this new demand
How will this electricity be generated?
What capacity increases will be needed in the local T&D electricity systems?
This is just a start. More to come later.


Throw More Decoys
1 day ago

"Global metals shortage sabotages the electric car revolution"?
Nonsense. Our high-tech dreams are not being sabotaged.
The scarcity of lithium, cobalt, and rare earth metals mining sites, as well as their toxic refining processes, have been well known for over a century. They were named "rare" for that reason!
Electric car manufacturers are dreaming of an Earth that does not exist.
Mass production of vehicles requiring these metals is unlikely to be cost competitive until gasoline becomes rare as well. I would like to be proven wrong.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/may- ... 00938.html

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Re: Gas prices to raise, again.

Postby st7 » June 11th, 2022, 8:53 pm

inb4zoom

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Re: Gas prices to raise, again.

Postby Numb3r4 » June 11th, 2022, 10:25 pm

You could look into the current state of affairs between China and BHP in the Congo.

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Re: Gas prices to raise, again.

Postby Chimera » July 5th, 2022, 12:22 pm

My padna have a hybrid 2016 fielder.
The hybrid battery gone thru. He mostly uses gas. But if he uses a obd scanner and clears the error code he gets about 2 hours of battery run time out of it. It always shows 0% though. After a while it reverts back to gas only and he just clears the code again. ( he's using a Bluetooth obd tool linked to his phone to clear it as need be)

I see it have people refurbishing/re conditioning battery packs.. would that make any sense?
Would the car completely fail after a while or can it run on gas completely

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Re: Gas prices to raise, again.

Postby sMASH » July 5th, 2022, 12:44 pm

Phone Surgeon wrote:My padna have a hybrid 2016 fielder.
The hybrid battery gone thru. He mostly uses gas. But if he uses a obd scanner and clears the error code he gets about 2 hours of battery run time out of it. It always shows 0% though. After a while it reverts back to gas only and he just clears the code again. ( he's using a Bluetooth obd tool linked to his phone to clear it as need be)

I see it have people refurbishing/re conditioning battery packs.. would that make any sense?
Would the car completely fail after a while or can it run on gas completely

if it make up like how the tesla ones make up, with individual cells, the bad ones can be changed out... once u can get to them easily. i watched a vid once with the nissan battery break down, it seemed a bit tedious.

but, seeing that, i seeing a small niche set up, to buy partially bad packs, separating all for the resting voltage, and refurbishing slightly damaged ones

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Re: Gas prices to raise, again.

Postby kamakazi » July 5th, 2022, 1:29 pm

Phone Surgeon wrote:My padna have a hybrid 2016 fielder.
The hybrid battery gone thru. He mostly uses gas. But if he uses a obd scanner and clears the error code he gets about 2 hours of battery run time out of it. It always shows 0% though. After a while it reverts back to gas only and he just clears the code again. ( he's using a Bluetooth obd tool linked to his phone to clear it as need be)

I see it have people refurbishing/re conditioning battery packs.. would that make any sense?
Would the car completely fail after a while or can it run on gas completely


Iirc, when you look at the inner workings of the power split device (transmission). The car will not move if the battery completely fails... Even if the engine is running

At present the gearing of the system might be limited due to the reduced battery output

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Re: Gas prices to raise, again.

Postby Dave » July 5th, 2022, 1:48 pm

If your driving habits are good and you have a well maintained vehicle then.......
1772539737.jpeg

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Re: Gas prices to raise, again.

Postby nick639v2 » July 5th, 2022, 3:00 pm

Dave wrote:If your driving habits are good and you have a well maintained vehicle then.......
1772539737.jpeg


Yup this is what I’m getting easily on the new forester as well

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Re: Gas prices to raise, again.

Postby Dave » July 5th, 2022, 4:16 pm

My tank isn't as big as a Forester.
nick639v2 wrote:
Dave wrote:If your driving habits are good and you have a well maintained vehicle then.......
1772539737.jpeg


Yup this is what I’m getting easily on the new forester as well

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Re: Gas prices to raise, again.

Postby kamakazi » July 5th, 2022, 5:07 pm

Dave wrote:If your driving habits are good and you have a well maintained vehicle then.......
1772539737.jpeg
So what vehicle is it?

And how much did it cost to fill your tank with super/premium
Last edited by kamakazi on July 5th, 2022, 5:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Gas prices to raise, again.

Postby maj. tom » July 5th, 2022, 5:11 pm

Better to post mpg or km/L so it's a comparable, calculable metric.

Also driving habits are one thing, but you can't drive economically in traffic everyday. Gas burns going nowhere in idle. On a fill up on I can get 26 km/L on highway and after 2 days in the perpetual life of traffic it drops to 15 km/L.

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Re: Gas prices to raise, again.

Postby agent007 » July 5th, 2022, 7:56 pm

Looks like a B17...dunno if it has a HR16 or MRA8 in it.
kamakazi wrote:
Dave wrote:If your driving habits are good and you have a well maintained vehicle then.......
1772539737.jpeg
So what vehicle is it?

And how much did it cost to fill your tank with super/premium

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Re: Gas prices to raise, again.

Postby xtech » July 6th, 2022, 8:16 am

kamakazi wrote:
Phone Surgeon wrote:My padna have a hybrid 2016 fielder.
The hybrid battery gone thru. He mostly uses gas. But if he uses a obd scanner and clears the error code he gets about 2 hours of battery run time out of it. It always shows 0% though. After a while it reverts back to gas only and he just clears the code again. ( he's using a Bluetooth obd tool linked to his phone to clear it as need be)

I see it have people refurbishing/re conditioning battery packs.. would that make any sense?
Would the car completely fail after a while or can it run on gas completely


Iirc, when you look at the inner workings of the power split device (transmission). The car will not move if the battery completely fails... Even if the engine is running

At present the gearing of the system might be limited due to the reduced battery output


It will eventually trigger a bigger fail safe code where it will run on engine power alone. It will be running high rpm’s and drive very slowly. Same time it will drain the battery pack instead of charging. If he is able to clear that code to get where ever he is going and turns off the system it will not reboot the hybrid side since the battery was drained and is needed to start turn the motor that starts the engine….car will need to be towed or battery replaced on the spot.

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Re: Gas prices to raise, again.

Postby Chimera » July 6th, 2022, 8:31 am

As it is now the car works with gas only . All the hybrid features with battery percentage etc are not visible and everything is in Japanese...only when he clears the error codes that the ev features show up on the dashboard and it turns to English and shows battery at 0%

Before that it doesn't shoe battery at all. Its just blank

He is able to run it normally with gas only though
Its only last week he got the obd Bluetooth tool and for 3 or 4 months he driving it as gas only

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Re: Gas prices to raise, again.

Postby Dizzy28 » July 6th, 2022, 9:21 am

kamakazi wrote:
Dave wrote:If your driving habits are good and you have a well maintained vehicle then.......1772539737.jpeg
So what vehicle is it?

And how much did it cost to fill your tank with super/premium


Dave drives a Sentra IIRC

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Re: Gas prices to raise, again.

Postby dogg » July 18th, 2022, 11:36 am

LPG subsidies staying put.

Cap on Fuel subsidy...

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Re: Gas prices to raise, again.

Postby daring dragoon » July 18th, 2022, 11:39 am

but baldhead say world oil and gas price low. how does that explain high local premium and super? i cant believe you all believing what coming out of he mouth.

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Re: Gas prices to raise, again.

Postby Monk BANzai » July 20th, 2022, 1:31 pm

IMG-20220720-WA0045 (002).jpg

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Re: Gas prices to raise, again.

Postby maj. tom » July 20th, 2022, 1:47 pm

They also published this in the Gazette yesterday. I don't understand the context, can someone explain what this means to the public please?

Image

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Re: Gas prices to raise, again.

Postby Dizzy28 » July 20th, 2022, 1:56 pm

^ Fuel prices changed downward based on the order Banzai posted and the margins have also been changed to keep the current retail prices in place??

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Re: Gas prices to raise, again.

Postby Monk BANzai » July 20th, 2022, 2:33 pm

Dizzy28 wrote:^ Fuel prices changed downward based on the order Banzai posted and the margins have also been changed to keep the current retail prices in place??


exactly.. i pulled that from a forwarded message on the Whatsapp network...and inno how ppl like to make fake docs and send a false positive out there...

Need clarity.

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Re: Gas prices to raise, again.

Postby bluefete » July 20th, 2022, 3:10 pm

Looks like the price at the pump is supposed to go down but the margins have me a bit confused.

One reason for an early 2nd September budget?

Edit: Just saw Banzai's confirmation above.

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Re: Gas prices to raise, again.

Postby rollingstock » July 20th, 2022, 7:56 pm

Dizzy28 wrote:^ Fuel prices changed downward based on the order Banzai posted and the margins have also been changed to keep the current retail prices in place??


That's basically what was done. Adjust the margin to compensate for current prices to keep the cost at the pump the same.

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Re: Gas prices to raise, again.

Postby Kickstart » July 20th, 2022, 8:42 pm

bluefete wrote:Looks like the price at the pump is supposed to go down but the margins have me a bit confused.

One reason for an early 2nd September budget?

Edit: Just saw Banzai's confirmation above.
I guess the voters like it so

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Re: Gas prices in Trinidad & Tobago

Postby redmanjp » July 20th, 2022, 9:30 pm

so increased margin means gas station owners getting more profit?

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Re: Gas prices in Trinidad & Tobago

Postby NR8 » July 20th, 2022, 10:01 pm

Privatisation of NP stations incoming :?:

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