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Ba2 equals junkHabit7 wrote:Moody's Ratings changes outlook on Trinidad & Tobago to stable, affirms Ba2 ratings
14 Jun 2024
Moody's Ratings
New York, June 14, 2024 -- Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has today changed the Government of Trinidad & Tobago's outlook to stable from positive and affirmed the Ba2 long-term local and foreign currency issuer and senior unsecured ratings.
The change in the outlook to stable is driven by increasing external vulnerability risks as highlighted by the accelerated pace of liquid foreign exchange reserves drawdown observed over the first four months of 2024. The drawdown is the result of declining energy receipts owing to declining gas prices and significant capital outflows, indicating higher than previously anticipated macroeconomic and fiscal adjustment costs for the next two years until large new natural gas developments are projected to come onstream starting 2026 or 2027. These downside risks balance upside risks resulting from the government's continued economic and fiscal revenue diversification effort in light of a mature domestic energy sector and volatile natural gas prices. At the Ba2 rating level, Moody's expects the credit profile to be resilient to potential project delays and increased capital flow volatility around current foreign exchange reserve levels that Moody's expects over the next two years.
The Ba2 rating is supported by a return to sustained positive growth mainly driven by the non-energy sector, following several years of contraction owing to the weak energy sector performance. Fiscal risks related to a relatively high debt burden are mitigated by significant buffers consisting of the Heritage and Stabilization Fund amounting to 20% of GDP, plus cash buffers at a similar amount. The Ba2 rating also takes into account Trinidad & Tobago's moderate external vulnerability, with falling reserves despite large current account surpluses; and moderate institutional and governance strength.
Local currency (LC) and foreign currency (FC) country ceilings remain unchanged at Baa2 and Ba1, respectively. The three-notch gap of the LC ceiling at Baa2 with the sovereign rating reflects the economy's significant exposure to the hydrocarbon sector with spillovers to activity in the non-energy sector, balanced by low exposure to domestic and geopolitical risk. The FC ceiling remains at Ba1. The two-notch gap with the LC ceiling captures potential transfer and convertibility risks reflected in the track record of balance of payments weakness over the past few years, which contributed to reported foreign exchange shortages and has the potential to affect the import capacity of small and medium-sized businesses in the non-energy sector.
RATINGS RATIONALE
RATIONALE FOR THE STABLE OUTLOOK
INCREASING EXTERNAL VULNERABILITY RISKS BALANCE CONTINUED ECONOMIC AND FISCAL REVENUE DIVERSIFICATION EFFORTS
Following a period of foreign exchange reserve stability in 2022 until mid-2023, liquid foreign exchange reserves (defined as gross reserves excluding gold and SDR, FX reserves) have resumed a decade-long downward trend that has further accelerated over the first four months of 2024. This drawdown of FX reserves to $4 billion in April 2024 from $4.9 billion in December 2023 is mainly driven by declining energy receipts owing to declining gas prices and significant capital outflows, exacerbated by the persistent interest rate differential with the US.
Compared to one year before, FX reserves as of April have declined by an unprecedented 28%, indicating a higher than previously anticipated degree of capital flow volatility during the transition phase until large new natural gas developments are projected by the government to come onstream starting 2026 or 2027. The weaker level of FX reserve coverage that Moody's estimates at 5.5 months of imports (based on goods and services imports as of Q3 2023) reduces the economy's external shock absorption capacity in case this trend persists.
These increased downside risks mitigate upside credit pressure related to the government's continued economic and fiscal revenue diversification efforts in light of a mature domestic energy sector and volatile natural gas prices. For instance, despite lower than budgeted energy revenue projected for fiscal 2024 (ending September 2024) according to the government's mid-year review, Moody's projects the fiscal deficit to remain close to the budgeted 2.7% of GDP in light of the government's spending reduction and non-energy revenue raising efforts.
The government is expected to continue fiscal consolidation through revenue enhancing measures such as the establishment of the new Revenue Authority (TTRA), as well as the implementation of property and gaming and gambling taxes. The government also continues to make progress with the gradual phasing out of remaining fuel, electricity and water subsidies with the objective to increase the operational efficiency of public utilities to ultimately reduce the large transfer and subsidies bill which was recorded at about 17% of GDP in fiscal 2023.
RATIONALE FOR THE Ba2 AFFIRMATION
The Ba2 rating is supported by a return to positive growth mainly driven by the non-energy sector and significant fiscal buffers. The Ba2 rating also takes into account Trinidad & Tobago's moderate institutional and governance strength and moderate event risk, including external vulnerability risk. At the Ba2 rating level, Moody's expects the credit profile to be resilient to potential project delays and increased capital flow volatility around current FX reserve levels.
The return to positive growth is mainly driven by the non-energy sector, following several years of contraction owing to the weak energy sector performance as existing fields mature and major new projects are scheduled to come onstream in 2026. The establishment of the EXIM Bank has helped channel scarce foreign exchange for intermediate goods imports for the development of new export markets in particular in the manufacturing sector.
The government's diversification strategy to mitigate mounting carbon transition risks over the next decade includes the launch of a green hydrogen road map in December 2022, as well as the installation of a combined 112-megawatt solar power project — the largest in the Caribbean — to help decarbonize power generation and free up gas for export.
On the fiscal side, Moody's projects the adjusted general government debt ratio (defined as debt of the central government debt plus guaranteed debt of non-self serviced state-owned enterprises and statutory authorities) to increase to 73.4% in fiscal 2024, a relatively high level, and stay at similar levels in fiscal 2025 before declining thereafter, driven by a stronger energy production profile and improved revenue generation capacity. Moody's assessment of fiscal strength and the rating also takes into account the benefits to the government balance sheet from significant fiscal buffers via the Heritage and Stabilization Fund at about 20% of GDP—plus cash buffers at a similar amount—which mitigates fiscal risks.
A solid strength of civil society and the judiciary assessment supports Trinidad & Tobago's institutions and governance strength, reflecting its constitutional system of checks and balances, and institutional transparency. Meanwhile, external vulnerability risk drives the sovereign's moderate event risk exposure, capturing falling FX reserves despite large current account surpluses, together with banking sector risk reflecting potential risks to the government balance sheet stemming from the size of the domestic banking sector and credit unions in case of a systemic crisis.
ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND GOVERNANCE RISKS
Trinidad and Tobago's ESG Credit Impact Score at CIS-4 reflects the credit profile's exposure to environmental risk derived from carbon transition risk as a mature carbon producer.
Trinidad & Tobago's (T&T) E-5 assessment is driven by carbon transition risk. T&T is a mature hydrocarbon producer facing a natural production decline, with proven gas reserves covering about 11 years of production. Several large projects that are either underway or that will materialize with a high likelihood over the next five years underpin our expectation of a broadly stable energy production profile over the next decade, including by leveraging T&T's Atlantic LNG infrastructure as regional hub for gas from other producers in the region. However, the overall weak energy production trend weighs on T&T's growth outlook and on the ability to replenish the economy's foreign exchange reserve buffers that have declined over the past decade.
Exposure to social risks at S-3 indicates that social considerations historically have not materially impacted Trinidad and Tobago's credit profile, supported by an ample social safety net and a "very high" tier ranking in the Human Development Index. However, Trinidad and Tobago also records a comparatively high crime rate with almost 30 homicides per 100,000 population in 2021 that could adversely impact the business environment in the future.
The influence of governance on Trinidad and Tobago's credit profile is not material (G-3 issuer profile score) but benefits from significant efforts in recent months to improve data reporting and reduce data limitations and institutional constraints that limit the government's capacity to execute fiscal policy.
GDP per capita (PPP basis, US$): 31,330 (also known as Per Capita Income)
Real GDP growth (% change): 2.4% (2023) (also known as GDP Growth)
Inflation Rate (CPI, % change Dec/Dec): 0.7% (2023)
Gen. Gov. Financial Balance/GDP: -1.4% (2023) (also known as Fiscal Balance)
Current Account Balance/GDP: 8% (estimated 2023) (also known as External Balance)
External debt/GDP: 56.1% (estimated 2023)
Economic resiliency: ba1
Default history: No default events (on bonds or loans) have been recorded since 1983.
On 12 June 2024, a rating committee was called to discuss the rating of the Trinidad & Tobago, Government of. The main points raised during the discussion were: The issuer's economic fundamentals, including its economic strength, have not materially changed. The issuer's institutions and governance strength, have increased. The issuer's fiscal or financial strength, including its debt profile, has not materially changed. The issuer's susceptibility to event risk has not materially changed but external vulnerability risk has increased.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
T&T's rating would likely be upgraded if government measures prove effective in addressing the weakening energy production trend with a boost to domestic oil or gas production or by accessing gas supplies from neighboring countries. These elements would support growth and economic resiliency, providing the government with additional room to make continued progress with the structural economic diversification agenda, while containing external vulnerability risks. A track record of continued primary surpluses as targeted by the government that places adjusted general government debt/GDP on a downward trajectory would further strengthen the sovereign credit profile.
Conversely, a further substantial drawdown of foreign-exchange reserves as a result of capital outflows would adversely affect the sovereign credit profile, as would the stalling of fiscal reforms — for example, fuel subsidy reform and tariff liberalization — resulting in a sustained build-up in the debt ratio.
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys- ... -PR_488648
U cant spin ur PNM bullśĥît propaganda here.Habit7 wrote:I am glad to see your faith in T&T data restored. Nevertheless, it is still a recent, balanced and external assessment of our economy.
The_Honourable wrote:alfa wrote:zoom rader wrote:Habit7 is a home invasion a crime?
I noticed he has not answered. Says a lot about this bad habit
He has outstanding questions to answer and when cornered, he switches topicHabit7 wrote:adnj wrote:Whatever crime home invasion is charged as, apparently burglary and break in isn't always charged.
Quick reminder. The TTPS data I have been citing is reported crimes. So TTPS receive a report, if they have a suspect They are arrested under a certain law, and if the DPP sees fit they are charged and prosecuted under a certain law. It is possible at all three stages the law can be different.
eg. Christ Must List was arrested under the Anti Gang Act but was charged with Sedition.
Therefore posting a bunch of home invaders being prosecuted as robberies is irrelevant as it doesn't deny what they were initially reported to the TTPS as. Many times the DPP would choose a lesser or greater charge based on the strength or ease of the case.
Nevertheless, as home invasion is not an offence in TT law, the TTPS measures its rise or fall by Burglaries and Breakings. But even if you want to extend it to Robberies, Robberies are also down 1 Jan to 30 Apr 2024 in comparison to the same period last year.
It still doesn't give credence to the claim that home invasions are increasing, which was the premise of the reporter's question.
Sneaking in your deceptive claims again... again please answer:
From our lowest in 2021 at 1,331 to 1,677 in 2023, is that an increase or decrease?
121 in December 2023 to 137 in April 2024, is that an increase or decrease?
Is Rowley and Hinds using the same stats you are using?
The_Honourable wrote:Now I can argue that according to TTPS stats, Breakings and Burglaries are on the rise since December 2023 from 121 reported to 137 reported as of April 2024. But i don't like month to month as May 2024 can show a lower number where you would be the first to bawl out "iT oN de dEcreAsE, aH juSt foLlOwiNg d sTaaaaaaTS".
Habit7 wrote:adnj wrote:Whatever crime home invasion is charged as, apparently burglary and break in isn't always charged.
Quick reminder. The TTPS data I have been citing is reported crimes. So TTPS receive a report, if they have a suspect They are arrested under a certain law, and if the DPP sees fit they are charged and prosecuted under a certain law. It is possible at all three stages the law can be different.
eg. Christ Must List was arrested under the Anti Gang Act but was charged with Sedition.
Therefore posting a bunch of home invaders being prosecuted as robberies is irrelevant as it doesn't deny what they were initially reported to the TTPS as. Many times the DPP would choose a lesser or greater charge based on the strength or ease of the case.
Nevertheless, as home invasion is not an offence in TT law, the TTPS measures its rise or fall by Burglaries and Breakings. But even if you want to extend it to Robberies, Robberies are also down 1 Jan to 30 Apr 2024 in comparison to the same period last year.
It still doesn't give credence to the claim that home invasions are increasing, which was the premise of the reporter's question.
Repost:
Home Invasion is not specifically defined in TT. As a consequence, the incident will be charged according to the components involved (e.g. burglary, armed robbery, assault, and murder).
It is impossible to know the number of home invasions without a count specific to that act.
adnj wrote:Whatever the final charge, it certainly won't be "Home Invasion
Other tuners can fend for themselves and though ur BullŚhitHabit7 wrote:adnj wrote:Whatever the final charge, it certainly won't be "Home Invasion
Dont say that too loud. ZR will hear you.
U only stand on PNM propagandaHabit7 wrote:That's it right there. I stand refuted.
zoom rader wrote:Up to now Habit7 cant cant answer a simple question
Screenshot_20240621_121527_WhatsApp.jpg
sMASH wrote:Thst 5.3% and 13% is not put in context that the 2022 plants online is about 50% compared to 2015.
Is not that non manufacturing driving growth , Is really the eneegry sector still crunched, with a decline of 3% in natgas supply , that the other parts of the ecconmy now occupy a greater part of the economy .
Any way , Lefffff foot ritttttte foot like it so...IMG_20240621_140856.jpg
sMASH wrote:It only have 10 years of gas at present rates.
By the time u develop , the easy gas done and I the harder expensive gas... That gonna be competing with renewables...
Lol.
Thats why pnm throwing out construction and refurbishment contracts... To squeeze the treasury dry as fast as they could before the bubble burst.
Habit7 wrote:UNC united in opposing Whistleblower Bill
by
11 hours ago
20240613
Gail Alexander
Senior Political Reporter
The Opposition doesn’t support the whistleblower legislation which will be debated in Parliament tomorrow. The Bill requires support from four Opposition MPs for passage, however, United Patriots supporters Rushton Paray, Rodney Charles and Rai Ragbir say they will be guided by their Chief Whip’s instructions about voting.
Yesterday UNC deputy leader Roodal Moonilal made it clear the party won’t support the Anti-Corruption Bill as it did in 2022 when it was first brought to Parliament.
Debate on the legislation was adjourned in that year and the bill was carried over into the 2023 and 2024 sessions of Parliament.
Debate resumes at 1.30 pm tomorrow and it’s expected that a vote will be taken.
The Bill is aimed at combatting corruption and other wrongdoings by encouraging and facilitating disclosures of improper conduct in the public and private sectors. It seeks to protect persons making those disclosures from detrimental action and regulate receiving, investigating or otherwise dealing with disclosures of improper conduct.
At last Friday’s sitting of the House of Representatives, Leader of Government Business Camille Robinson-Regis said the Bill would be debated this Friday and if there was time, she said the debate on another bill dealing with polygraph and drug testing for the security sector and other personnel would also be done.
Robinson-Regis didn’t reply to questions about why the debate of the Whistleblower Bill is continuing now, whether there are any changes and about Opposition support.
The previous debate was piloted by Prime Minister Dr Keith Rowley.
So far, approximately 19 Government and Opposition MPs have participated in the bill, particularly party frontliners and attorneys on both sides. After others speak today, it’s expected the vote will be taken.
Sections of the Bill are inconsistent with Sections Four and Five of the Constitution and require a three-fifths majority for passage.
Government sources said the special majority requires 26 votes in support of the legislation. That means in addition to the PNM’s 22 MPs, the votes of four UNC MPs are needed for passage.
Moonilal, who spoke in the debate of the Bill in 2022, said: “The Opposition has very, very serious concerns about this Bill in the context of constitutional rights where fairness, justice and the right to confront accusers as well as other aspects are concerned.
“The PNM has no moral authority to speak about whistleblowers when they fire, hunt down and witchhunt people who bring information to the public on corruption and mismanagement. Prime Minister Keith Rowley is in his last political days. Whether this bill passes or not won’t change anything, they’ve proven incapable of dealing with everything from law and order to finance and the economy.”
Moonilal took issue with Finance Minister Colm Imbert’s statement in the Senate on Tuesday that the Budget deficit isn’t expected to be as high as $9 billion, although he gave the $9 billion deficit projection during the House of Representatives debate last Friday.
“We therefore cannot believe a word Imbert says. It’s one thing last week and another thing this week. With inconsistent statements you have to believe the economy has indeed collapsed,” he said.
“We particularly cannot believe Imbert given the crisis with public accounting, vis a vis the Auditor General and them bullying her. UNC leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar has produced an explosive Cabinet note which suggests the economy has collapsed and they intend to use shock treatment. Therefore the only thing that will bring change is changing the Government.”
UNC dissidents toeing party line
Moonilal said he expected all UNC MPs to be in Parliament for tomorrow’s debate.
In the party division caused by campaigning for the party’s national executive election on Saturday, Persad-Bissessar who is backing the incumbent Star team, recently complained that MPs supporting the rival UP slate colleagues had absconded from Parliament during last month’s vote on matters involving the Auditor General.
UNC sources said Chief Whip David Lee sent an email to all MPs last weekend telling them to be prepared for the debate.
On Tuesday Paray said he will be attending Parliament tomorrow and continues to “operate under the hand of the Whip and will be guided accordingly.”
UP supporter Rodney Charles also said he is attending.
“I’ve already spoken in the Whistleblower Bill debate in a previous parliamentary session and therefore will not be expected to speak tomorrow,” he said.
“I’ll be guided by the party whip as to how we’ll vote on the bill. Last Friday I was, like my colleagues Rambally, Haynes and Rushton, fully prepared to speak in Parliament on the mid-year review debate but was not selected by the whip to speak. Part of my intended submission dealing with the Government’s overreliance on a rosy IMF report was subsequently sent to the media via a release.”
Another UP supporter, Cumuto/Manzanilla MP Rai Ragbir said: “Yes, I’m attending Parliament. I’m not sure of the party’s position at this time. I wait like my other parliamentarian colleagues to be guided by political leader Mrs Kamla Persad-Bissessar and the chief whip David Lee.”
Chaguanas West MP Dinesh Rambally said he is attending Parliament but did not say whether he would support the bill, while Tabaquite MP Anita Haynes-Alleyne didn’t respond to calls for comment.
https://guardian.co.tt/news/unc-united- ... 2ac981b279
Ragbir breaks ranks with UNC, votes with Govt in House
by
2 hours ago
20240621
Opposition MP Dr Rai Ragbir has broken ranks with his party, the United National Congress, and voted in favour for the passage of the Whistle-Blower Protection Bill.
During the vote at Friday's sitting of the House of Representatives, Dr Ragbir was the only Opposition member to support the Government in amending clauses within the Act “to combat corruption and other wrongdoings, by encouraging and facilitating disclosures of improper conduct in the public and private sector, to protect persons making those disclosures from detrimental action, to regulate the receiving, investigating or otherwise dealing with disclosures of improper conduct and to provide for other matters connected therewith.”
Opposition Leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar was absent from the House during the vote.
Dr Ragbir was recently identified as one of several dissident members of the UNC for calls on the party leader to trigger the national executive elections. Persad-Bissessar previously threatened to expel party members who vote against party lines in the Parliament.
The government did not need Opposition support to pass the bill. It eventually passed 22 for, 15 against and no abstentions.
When asked to comment on his decision, Dr Ragbir said:
"Persons must be encouraged to feel confident in raising serious concerns at the earliest opportunity when they suspect illegal, immoral or fraudulent activities at the workplace private or public. Making a disclosure or blowing a whistle will have repercussions such as being dismissed or demoted in their job. And to add to that the individual will experience psycho-social issues [that] need to [be] dealt with. I am at a moral crossroads where I must align my actions with my values—spiritual and moral. Country first."
In a response to the development, Opposition Leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar told Guardian Media she was not shocked by Dr Rai Ragbir's decision to vote against party lines.
"Not surprised at all,” she said. “For us in the UNC it’s business as usual because I told everyone during the internal campaign that some of the dissidents were working with the PNM and would go to the PNM after getting rejected by the membership in the internal elections. So said, so done."
https://guardian.co.tt/news/ragbir-brea ... eca9939914
No max u have it wrong,MaxPower wrote:All this hating on PNM.
Why allyuh fooling allyuhselves?
PNM rallies RAM out.
16 cycles wrote:Rent boss got SC?
What's the run rate with cases won and lost??
Habit7 wrote:The_Honourable wrote:alfa wrote:zoom rader wrote:Habit7 is a home invasion a crime?
I noticed he has not answered. Says a lot about this bad habit
He has outstanding questions to answer and when cornered, he switches topicHabit7 wrote:adnj wrote:Whatever crime home invasion is charged as, apparently burglary and break in isn't always charged.
Quick reminder. The TTPS data I have been citing is reported crimes. So TTPS receive a report, if they have a suspect They are arrested under a certain law, and if the DPP sees fit they are charged and prosecuted under a certain law. It is possible at all three stages the law can be different.
eg. Christ Must List was arrested under the Anti Gang Act but was charged with Sedition.
Therefore posting a bunch of home invaders being prosecuted as robberies is irrelevant as it doesn't deny what they were initially reported to the TTPS as. Many times the DPP would choose a lesser or greater charge based on the strength or ease of the case.
Nevertheless, as home invasion is not an offence in TT law, the TTPS measures its rise or fall by Burglaries and Breakings. But even if you want to extend it to Robberies, Robberies are also down 1 Jan to 30 Apr 2024 in comparison to the same period last year.
It still doesn't give credence to the claim that home invasions are increasing, which was the premise of the reporter's question.
Sneaking in your deceptive claims again... again please answer:
From our lowest in 2021 at 1,331 to 1,677 in 2023, is that an increase or decrease?
121 in December 2023 to 137 in April 2024, is that an increase or decrease?
Is Rowley and Hinds using the same stats you are using?
I now seeing this stupidness.
You cannot arbitrarily choose a year to justify an increase or decrease. Why did you choose 2021? Why not 2019, 2018, 2017, etc. You are the one being deceptive. 2021 was mostly a self-imposed SoE. Nearly all our crime stats went down. Nobody could boast that their actions suppressed crime in 2020 or 2021. The only dishonest person who does that is Gary Griffith with 2020 data. I am not answering your dishonest question because it data manipulation. If you want to take win for that go ahead.
Likewise arbitrarily choosing a month in 2023 to make the case that there was an increase now is dishonest as well. Plus you agreed it was dishonest when you thought I would make that point but I didn't. So now you are contradicting yourself and want me to go along with you. I won't, take win.The_Honourable wrote:Now I can argue that according to TTPS stats, Breakings and Burglaries are on the rise since December 2023 from 121 reported to 137 reported as of April 2024. But i don't like month to month as May 2024 can show a lower number where you would be the first to bawl out "iT oN de dEcreAsE, aH juSt foLlOwiNg d sTaaaaaaTS".
You need to ask Rowley and Hinds that. I am using TTPS data the most authoritative data on the issue, not Rowley or Hinds.
None of you all are yet to show year on year or year to date (the standard way we measure all crime) ANYWHERE that home invasions are increasing. I have responded and refuted every post on the matter. The best you can do is deceptively say "Well, if you measure it from 4:43 pm on Sat 18 August in 2021 up until now there has been an increase!" Cool, but nobody does that unless they are being deceptive.
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