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Stand your ground legislation + moar FUL'sGladiator wrote:There are ramblings that the overlords have summoned PM... election soon???
sMASH wrote:Stand your ground legislation + moar FUL'sGladiator wrote:There are ramblings that the overlords have summoned PM... election soon???
Gladiator wrote:There are ramblings that the overlords have summoned PM... election soon???
Habit7 wrote:Rowley is going out with a bang with the boast that he left it better than he found it
Habit7 wrote:Gladiator wrote:There are ramblings that the overlords have summoned PM... election soon???
Let’s be honest, you have no ears on the ground in Balisier House. You are just parroting something you saw on UNC FB.
The PNM is preparing for election but one that will be in 2025. They have several projects that will be ribbon cutting ready by 2025 in time for the campaign: Sangre Grande Hospital, Central Block POSGH, Sangre Grande Hwy, New Tobago Airport, Min of Social Develop HQ and Rehabilitation Centre POS, Manatee Gas and a couple others. Rowley is going out with a bang with the boast that he left it better than he found it. At least he could make that argument economically, on the crime front, no so much.
But even while early elections normally hurt the PNM, the competition isn’t that much of a threat. PNM beat Kamla 2x unless something changes within the UNC, history might repeat itself. There is no pressure for an early election, win/lose/draw Rowley will bask the fact that he served 2 entire 5 yrs terms. Nobody is forcing his hand to do otherwise.
Habit7 wrote:Gladiator wrote:There are ramblings that the overlords have summoned PM... election soon???
Let’s be honest, you have no ears on the ground in Balisier House. You are just parroting something you saw on UNC FB.
The PNM is preparing for election but one that will be in 2025. They have several projects that will be ribbon cutting ready by 2025 in time for the campaign: Sangre Grande Hospital, Central Block POSGH, Sangre Grande Hwy, New Tobago Airport, Min of Social Develop HQ and Rehabilitation Centre POS, Manatee Gas and a couple others. Rowley is going out with a bang with the boast that he left it better than he found it. At least he could make that argument economically, on the crime front, no so much.
But even while early elections normally hurt the PNM, the competition isn’t that much of a threat. PNM beat Kamla 2x unless something changes within the UNC, history might repeat itself. There is no pressure for an early election, win/lose/draw Rowley will bask the fact that he served 2 entire 5 yrs terms. Nobody is forcing his hand to do otherwise.
On Tuesday, the PM was half-way through his passionate speech when the venue went silent owing to a power outage, his security detail becoming visibly uneasy as HDC workers frantically tried to resolve the issue. Within a few minutes, Rowley was back behind the podium, warning families about harboring criminals and calling their support unacceptable.
Mmoney607 wrote:https://newsday.co.tt/2024/03/24/mitchell-i-collect-no-rent-from-pan-trinbago/
This is the same man who steups at a homeless woman who wanted a house but he have people using his building for free. And out of all the buildings in Trinidad, just coincidentally, that's the one that the real estate agent recommended.
Well, all projections are speculation.. everybody is guessing .wing wrote:Investment bank downgrades T&T’s economic outlook
Imbert rubbishes ‘uninformed’ analysis
A United Kingdom-based investment bank last week downgraded its economic outlook for Trinidad and Tobago, predicting a widening fiscal deficit for 2024, weakening foreign exchange reserves and a smaller surplus on the country’s current account due to lower natural gas prices.
BancTrust and Company, located in London, specialises in emerging markets debt and focuses on markets in Latin America, the Caribbean, Central & Eastern Europe, and the Middle East & Africa. Its research team has won several awards for their economic forecasts.
However, contacted for comment on the BancTrust report, Finance Minister Colm Imbert yesterday dismissed the analysis, saying the investment bank was neither a credit rating agency nor an arm of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and that the report was “grossly inaccurate.”
“I am amazed that you would do a story based on uninformed speculation from an unknown company that has no relationship with the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago, no access to official information, no communication with the authorities in Trinidad and Tobago, no track record in rating Trinidad and Tobago and so on,” Imbert said.
Imbert said that potential investors would be more inclined to trust ratings from international agencies like Standard and Poor’s and Moody’s rather than some “unknown obscure entity.”
“When we go on Bloomberg, nobody is interested in uninformed speculation from non-rated entities. They insist on S&P and Moody’s because these rating agencies are recognised,” he said.
Imbert rubbished the BancTrust report after reviewing its contents.
“It’s rubbish. It’s grossly inaccurate. And that is what happens when you have no official information,” he said.
On Wednesday, BancTrust released its Trinidad and Tobago Economics and Strategy report.
“We revised our 2024 current account surplus forecast to 4.3% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product), from 6.2% and the overall fiscal deficit forecast to 2.9% of GDP from 2.2%,” the bank told potential investors.
BancTrust said the global decline in gas prices not only took its toll on T&T’s external and fiscal accounts but also left the country too exposed to oil prices.
“According to our calculations, the fiscal deficit could widen by 0.7ppts (percentage points) of GDP in 2024 for each 10ppts decrease in oil prices, while the current account surplus would shrink by 0.6ppts of GDP,” said the BancTrust research document.
It also cautioned that T&T’s foreign exchange crunch could get considerably worse if international commodity prices remain soft for a protracted period.
Net outflows from the financial account (excluding net public external indebtedness and net HSF withdrawals) averaged 11% of GDP in the last 10 years, the report said, even while the current account balance averaged a 7% of GDP surplus in the same period.
“At today’s GDP, this 4ppts difference implies a US$1.2 billion consumption of external buffers per year. Considering that the sum of Central Bank reserves and the HSF net asset value amounts to US$11.5bn, T&T’s external buffers would be enough to finance the balance of payments for 9.6 years,” the investment bank said.
It admitted that the calculation does not include future public sector borrowing or possible positive Heritage and Stabilisation Fund returns, which would extend the life of the buffers.
“The 9.6 years period could be shortened by lower current account balances in the future, a non-negligible probability event. This outlook is aggravated by the downside risks to exports,” the report read.
This outlook contrasts with a prediction from the IMF that T&T was on a sustainable growth path.
Imbert expressed uncertainty regarding the sources of information BancTrust used to conduct its analysis, noting that while the IMF engages in “intensive missions” to consult with the country, he was unsure about BancTrust’s data sources.
He said while the IMF’s analysis was “informed”, BancTrust’s was “completely uninformed” and as such, this newspaper was being “deliberately negative and mischievous” to report its analysis.
In its report, BancTrust reminded investors that Trinidad and Tobago’s economy is heavily dependent on its energy sector, particularly oil and gas.
“Slumping gas prices expose Trinidad and Tobago’s Achilles’ heel... Trinidad and Tobago’s economy is heavily dependent on its energy sector, particularly oil and gas. However, production has been steadily declining for more than a decade and the authorities have so far failed to reverse this trend, despite announcements of several new projects,” the document stated.
“While benefiting from the tailwind of high oil and gas prices between the second half of 2021 and 2023—which allowed the accumulation of massive current account surpluses—the country’s external sustainability has become increasingly dependent on high commodity prices,” BancTrust stated.
BancTrust, however, warned: “But good fortune does not last forever.”
It noted that at the US Henry Hub natural gas prices had fallen sharply in recent months, registering a 31.8% decrease year to date (YTD). However, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price, the marker for US crude, increased by 8.2% YTD, partially compensating for the plunge in gas prices.
This oil price is lower than the Government predicted and with crude production in T&T at a mere 54,000 barrels of oil per day (bo/d), it cannot make up for the shortfall in gas prices. Even though the Government is also getting a higher price than Henry Hub due to some links to the Japan Korea marker (JKM) and the Dutch Title Transfer (TTF) prices, it is still much lower than Imbert had used to peg the 2024 budget on.
Even before the fall in gas prices and after running a double-digit current account surplus, the country was already showing signs of difficulties in the build-up of international reserves, the report said.
“Financial outflows are massive and have been draining all inflows from the current account, slowly depleting the stock of international reserves and FX proceeds from public sector indebtedness,” the bank told investors.
Financial outflows also consumed part of the stock of the sovereign wealth fund (Heritage and Stabilisation Fund, HSF) that was tapped in the context of the pandemic, it read.
“Therefore, a decline in oil prices would leave the country in a very fragile situation,” the bank said.
It told investors that leaving aside the difficulties of projecting external sector flows due to statistical weaknesses, some simple calculations allow it to understand the worrying trend.
“Risks are skewed to the downside, which makes us sceptical about T&T’s sustainability in the medium term... Broadly speaking, prices of the four export commodities mentioned above would need to remain 40% below the current level to exhaust the external buffers by the end of 2026, assuming flagging production trends ahead,” the report stated.
What the IMF said last week
The BancTrust report came out two days after the IMF released its staff concluding statement of the 2024 Article IV Mission to this country.
During the period February 26 to March 8, an IMF staff team, led by Camilo E Tovar, visited Port of Spain and held discussions on the 2024 Article IV consultation with Trinidad and Tobago’s authorities.
The IMF stated that for the first time in a decade, Trinidad and Tobago was undergoing a gradual and sustained economic recovery.
“Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rebounded in 2022 and is estimated to have further expanded by 2.1% in 2023. This reflects the strong performance of the non-energy sector, which was partially offset by a contraction in the energy sector. Inflation has declined sharply to 0.3% in January 2024, after peaking at 8.7% in December 2022, mainly due to declining food and imported goods inflation. Banks’ credit to the private sector continues to expand and the financial sector appears sound and stable. The current account is estimated to have remained in a surplus in 2023, and foreign reserves coverage is adequate at 8.3 months of prospective total imports,” it stated.
The IMF stated that the country’s economic growth is projected to gain momentum in 2024.
“Real GDP is expected to expand by 2.4% in 2024, supported by the non-energy sector and new energy projects coming onstream—which will help offset the structural decline in energy production. Over the medium term, the delivery of several planned natural gas projects is expected to boost growth in the energy sector, while supporting economic activity in the non-energy sector. Inflation is projected to hover around two percent in line with international prices. The current account surplus is expected to stabilise in the medium term, exceeding 6% of GDP. Foreign reserve coverage is expected to remain adequate at 6.6 months of prospective total imports by 2029,” it stated.
According to the IMF, this country’s balance of risks is tilted to the downside in the near term but to the upside in the medium term.
“In the near term, downside risks stem from external factors affecting energy markets (e.g., an abrupt global slowdown) and disappointments in domestic energy production (e.g., delays in new projects or unexpected disruptions in current production). In the medium term, the balance of risks is to the upside, stemming from additional new natural gas projects and the implementation of planned structural reforms, which could boost growth. Downside risks emanate from a faster-than-expected global transition to net-zero emissions, which could put pressure on the energy sector,” it stated.
NOpugboy wrote:when i hear about the debts the country in
i wonder if we will ever get out of them
pugboy wrote:when i hear about the debts the country in
i wonder if we will ever get out of them
pugboy wrote:post a pic if debt amounts over the years nah
pugboy wrote:if our debt paying ability so good
why public servants police can’t get paid yet and vat refunds take forever ?
like them rating agency doh know bout that or wha?
pugboy wrote:if our debt paying ability so good
why public servants police can’t get paid yet and vat refunds take forever ?
like them rating agency doh know bout that or wha?
Habit7 wrote:pugboy wrote:if our debt paying ability so good
why public servants police can’t get paid yet and vat refunds take forever ?
like them rating agency doh know bout that or wha?
The rating agencies can show the data that made them give their rating.
What is the data that made you express your concern about our debt?
matix wrote:pugboy wrote:if our debt paying ability so good
why public servants police can’t get paid yet and vat refunds take forever ?
like them rating agency doh know bout that or wha?
They’re given information that doesn’t reflect the real state of affairs.
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