COVID-19 in Trinidad & Tobago (Local Updates & Discussions Only)

[redmanjp]

yes

seems our media not so smart to pickup on this reduced testing strategy of the govt
even though our tests/population is very low and has been highlighted somewhat in various reports but
nobody taking them to task on it.

no, Terry say the WHO chief suggestion of "test, test and more testing" is a bad protocol

he say we not going to test ppl just like that, we only testing ppl with symptoms who show up at health centres
or unless a positive person was in direct contact eg workplace then they will test the coworkers immediately

^the downside to not testing asymptomatic ppl who were exposed is they may also be spreading it and creating more cases- what if on day 10 or 12 of quarantine they become contagious but no symptoms- by day 15 they finish quarantine thinking they fine but possibly still contagious

so only direct primary contacts getting tested?

explains why i eh get no call or test despite 16 ppl in my office including myself on 14 day 'stay home'

[redmanjp]

MOH have time to post this on FB but no Covid update:

Citizens residing in Nariva/Mayaro and environs no longer have to travel 64 km to Sangre Grande or 43 km to San Fernando to access dialysis care.

The Eastern Regional Health Authority launched dialysis services at the Nariva/Mayaro Satellite Dialysis Unit on 4th August 2020.

[K74T]

7 new cases

[elec2020]

^ nice analysis. Very detailed. I like it. I cannot disagree with any points raised. Interestingly enough imf predicts tnt to experience deflation in 2020 or 2021. I think the latest value for inflation is 0.4 per cent. If we fo experience deflation low aggregate demand would serve to worsen prospects for gdp.

I haven't been following TTO inflation closely but I would not be surprised by deflation.

I would expect reductions in exports of cement, processed food, plastics, and services, etc.; and reductions in consumer imports because of sentiment, income and Customs House practices, etc.. That would drive down profits and employment.

Real wages will fall, consumer rents will fall and commercial spaces will empty.

The US dollar is becoming weaker, so export oil prices will increase because of pricing oil in USD; a weaker dollar will effectively devalue the TTD with rest of world transactions, also.

Essentially we in for a massive fall in economic activity. That said i am a bit cautious on the increase in energy revenues as it can be anticipated that energy prices will remain subdued till countries (particularly china) return to their produvtion levels post covid.

[elec2020]

^ nice analysis. Very detailed. I like it. I cannot disagree with any points raised. Interestingly enough imf predicts tnt to experience deflation in 2020 or 2021. I think the latest value for inflation is 0.4 per cent. If we fo experience deflation low aggregate demand would serve to worsen prospects for gdp.

Just to add that the oil import would be for the refinery...so imports of oil should drop by about 2B USD per year.

Also- to the extent that oil produced here is now exported as opposed to feeding the refinery that increase the exports-weve exported 7.1M BBLS of crude of which Heritage is 4.4M

The above would be netted off by the total importation of Fuels...45% about is for local consumption....the rest is resold for export.

Noted. But correct me if i am wrong. But production across the energy sector has fallen in 2020 and well our oil goes for less on the international market. Still, the demand for oil is low over this period due to the fall in global production during the pandemic. So it can be anticipated that while we may be in a better position to export oil (as the refinery is no longer consuming our oil) the depressed global environment will negatively impact the price and amount of oil that is in fact sold.

[Redman]

Well
Oil production has been in decline since 2004 ish....but yep general decline- that said---Export volumes would have exponentially more than historically -because no refinery.

Also it isnt hard to grow production of oil. Free up the blocks-get independent producers going and they will make a tidy business.


Generally there isnt a problem to sell our oil given the configuration of the refineries in the Western Hemisphere... so while demand for crude would have contracted ....certain specs of crude are in short supply-in this case weve benefited from Venez heavier crudes being off line.

[Dohplaydat]

7 new cases
FB_IMG_1596815757409.jpeg

I thought shakes say it was more cases than this? They waiting to release it later?

[redmanjp]

i wonder if MOH leave d bad news for the afternoon update- that is why dey was late- dey was contemplating which update to tell we d bad news

[aaron17]

What are the total number of cases pending Epidemiological investigations?

[Dohplaydat]

What are the total number of cases pending Epidemiological investigations?

30 in total since July 21st

[pugboy]

no press conference today ?

[ron_28]

no press conference today ?

Tomorrow. Rowley said on Wednesday the next one will be on Saturday

[xtech]

Was listening a radio program the other day on BBC an interesting interview where a COVID testing center in the states was grouping around 30 test samples into a single test to maximize efficiency of the limited available tests.

The plan is if the test comes back negative nobody is sick in that test group. But if they do have one they have to retest each sample in smaller batches of 5 till they find the batch with the sick person then actually test each of the 5 to find the sick person in the batch.

So instead of doing 30 tests they only actually did about 11.

[pugboy]

Yeah, I think China been doing from the earlies
That’s how they keep tabs on cities, keep testing the ppl in a locale repeatedly with grouped tests.
From the moment a group test is positive they lock down that community.

Was listening a radio program the other day on BBC an interesting interview where a COVID testing center in the states was grouping around 30 test samples into a single test to maximize efficiency of the limited available tests.

The plan is if the test comes back negative nobody is sick in that test group. But if they do have one they have to retest each sample in smaller batches of 5 till they find the batch with the sick person then actually test each of the 5 to find the sick person in the batch.

So instead of doing 30 tests they only actually did about 11.

[redmanjp]

What are the total number of cases pending Epidemiological investigations?

30 in total since July 21st

they were able to link a couple of cases

[adnj]

^ nice analysis. Very detailed. I like it. I cannot disagree with any points raised. Interestingly enough imf predicts tnt to experience deflation in 2020 or 2021. I think the latest value for inflation is 0.4 per cent. If we fo experience deflation low aggregate demand would serve to worsen prospects for gdp.

I haven't been following TTO inflation closely but I would not be surprised by deflation.

I would expect reductions in exports of cement, processed food, plastics, and services, etc.; and reductions in consumer imports because of sentiment, income and Customs House practices, etc.. That would drive down profits and employment.

Real wages will fall, consumer rents will fall and commercial spaces will empty.

The US dollar is becoming weaker, so export oil prices will increase because of pricing oil in USD; a weaker dollar will effectively devalue the TTD with rest of world transactions, also.

Essentially we in for a massive fall in economic activity. That said i am a bit cautious on the increase in energy revenues as it can be anticipated that energy prices will remain subdued till countries (particularly china) return to their produvtion levels post covid.

If you mean the published estimate for economic contraction, perhaps. I would not be surprised by -10% GDP.

But that contraction has already occurred and I would expect modest contraction followed by a slow shift to improvement by Q2 2021. It is simply how macroeconomics works.

I would also expect bars, gyms, schools and large groups to be restricted by Aug 15th -- further delaying a quick economic rebound.

[pugboy]

Maybe aug 11

They give the bars a free pass so far

^ nice analysis. Very detailed. I like it. I cannot disagree with any points raised. Interestingly enough imf predicts tnt to experience deflation in 2020 or 2021. I think the latest value for inflation is 0.4 per cent. If we fo experience deflation low aggregate demand would serve to worsen prospects for gdp.

I haven't been following TTO inflation closely but I would not be surprised by deflation.

I would expect reductions in exports of cement, processed food, plastics, and services, etc.; and reductions in consumer imports because of sentiment, income and Customs House practices, etc.. That would drive down profits and employment.

Real wages will fall, consumer rents will fall and commercial spaces will empty.

The US dollar is becoming weaker, so export oil prices will increase because of pricing oil in USD; a weaker dollar will effectively devalue the TTD with rest of world transactions, also.

Essentially we in for a massive fall in economic activity. That said i am a bit cautious on the increase in energy revenues as it can be anticipated that energy prices will remain subdued till countries (particularly china) return to their produvtion levels post covid.

If you mean the published estimate for economic contraction, perhaps. I would not be surprised by -10% GDP.

But that contraction has already occurred and I would expect modest contraction followed by a slow shift to improvement by Q2 2021. It is simply how macroeconomics works.

I would also expect bars, gyms, schools and large groups to be restricted by Aug 15th -- further delaying a quick economic rebound.

[elec2020]

^ nice analysis. Very detailed. I like it. I cannot disagree with any points raised. Interestingly enough imf predicts tnt to experience deflation in 2020 or 2021. I think the latest value for inflation is 0.4 per cent. If we fo experience deflation low aggregate demand would serve to worsen prospects for gdp.

I haven't been following TTO inflation closely but I would not be surprised by deflation.

I would expect reductions in exports of cement, processed food, plastics, and services, etc.; and reductions in consumer imports because of sentiment, income and Customs House practices, etc.. That would drive down profits and employment.

Real wages will fall, consumer rents will fall and commercial spaces will empty.

The US dollar is becoming weaker, so export oil prices will increase because of pricing oil in USD; a weaker dollar will effectively devalue the TTD with rest of world transactions, also.

Essentially we in for a massive fall in economic activity. That said i am a bit cautious on the increase in energy revenues as it can be anticipated that energy prices will remain subdued till countries (particularly china) return to their produvtion levels post covid.

If you mean the published estimate for economic contraction, perhaps. I would not be surprised by -10% GDP.

But that contraction has already occurred and I would expect modest contraction followed by a slow shift to improvement by Q2 2021. It is simply how macroeconomics works.

I would also expect bars, gyms, schools and large groups to be restricted by Aug 15th -- further delaying a quick economic rebound.

If we do not lockdown again recovery can commence in 2021 q2. But given public outcry and demand for a lockdown government may bend the knee. Worsening the current slide in economic activity as well as prolonging when we can anticipate a recovery in economic activity. A key driver of economic recovery will also be confidence. It is no secret that economic uncertainty is high. With high economic uncertainty individuals and businesses will be less inclined to consume and invest. To bolster optimism fiscal and monetary playmakers need to make some moves. But if they have the space or well room to make those moves remains to be seen. There are many ifs and buts however our luckiest bet at a quick recovery is solely dependent on the government. Sober thinking for monday.

[Dohplaydat]

You don't need a full lockdown we never did. I argued against the strictness of the full lockdown as all it does is buy you time. You're supposed to flatten the curve not avoid it.

We need a balance, I assume the government is attempting that now. But I can assuredly tell you trinis have not adopted much hygienic practices.
Washing your hands and waring masks in groceries is all well and good but the majority of spread happens at:
Public gatherings like campaigning and religious ceremonies. Offices, house limes, schools and them bars. Gyms can remain open if persons wear masks and they avoid over crowding.

We need to educate people more on how it's spread. I'm seeing ppl wiping down groceries but not wearing any masks when at work. Or going over to lime by people house because apparently restaurants not safe.

PNM has wasted so much media time by not educating people on these things. Now they want to blame people for spreading it.

What we need to do now is limit the spread. Work from home should be encouraged as much as possible. Schools unfortunately will have to remain closed until we get a vaccine. We can keep mostly everything open, even bars. But bars will have to avoid overcrowding as well.

Who ever wins needs to get this vaccine asap. I still can't forgive Keith for declining Trinidad to be part of the 4th phase trial for the Oxford Zeneca vaccine. We could have been Covid free in September and get back to life as normal. Steups.

[Dohplaydat]

Was listening a radio program the other day on BBC an interesting interview where a COVID testing center in the states was grouping around 30 test samples into a single test to maximize efficiency of the limited available tests.

The plan is if the test comes back negative nobody is sick in that test group. But if they do have one they have to retest each sample in smaller batches of 5 till they find the batch with the sick person then actually test each of the 5 to find the sick person in the batch.

So instead of doing 30 tests they only actually did about 11.

Heard about this idea too and given our failed attempts to improve testing rates we should adopt this method.

[pugboy]

so what is the mark for the next moh update ?

[redmanjp]

at what time do they post the afternoon update ?

[K74T]

at what time do they post the afternoon update ?

6pm

[K74T]

[K74T]

8 new cases pending epidemiological investigation. Total of 15 cases today!

[Dohplaydat]

8 new cases pending epidemiological investigation. Total of 15 cases today!

FB_IMG_1596837934605.jpeg

No community spread here folks, everything is under control.

[pugboy]

yup, no need for any community testing either
only come in for a test when you feeling sick WITH symptoms

8 new cases pending epidemiological investigation. Total of 15 cases today!

FB_IMG_1596837934605.jpeg

No community spread here folks, everything is under control.

[pugboy]

the way things going everyday more than one important public office that the country needs to run on - ttps, ministries etc
are gonna be closed for sanitizing

[The_Honourable]

Everything good why allyuh worried? Go and vote on monday... if we get back in then we'll lock allyuh down

[MaxPower]

You don't need a full lockdown we never did. I argued against the strictness of the full lockdown as all it does is buy you time. You're supposed to flatten the curve not avoid it.

We need a balance, I assume the government is attempting that now. But I can assuredly tell you trinis have not adopted much hygienic practices.
Washing your hands and waring masks in groceries is all well and good but the majority of spread happens at:
Public gatherings like campaigning and religious ceremonies. Offices, house limes, schools and them bars. Gyms can remain open if persons wear masks and they avoid over crowding.

We need to educate people more on how it's spread. I'm seeing ppl wiping down groceries but not wearing any masks when at work. Or going over to lime by people house because apparently restaurants not safe.

PNM has wasted so much media time by not educating people on these things. Now they want to blame people for spreading it.

What we need to do now is limit the spread. Work from home should be encouraged as much as possible. Schools unfortunately will have to remain closed until we get a vaccine. We can keep mostly everything open, even bars. But bars will have to avoid overcrowding as well.

Who ever wins needs to get this vaccine asap. I still can't forgive Keith for declining Trinidad to be part of the 4th phase trial for the Oxford Zeneca vaccine. We could have been Covid free in September and get back to life as normal. Steups.

Hello DPD,

Yet again, another top class write up.

The PNM i agree, has their faults.

But it could have easily been worse.