The 2020 General Election Thread (AUGUST 10TH)

[RedVEVO]

a old saying

One of the most famous sayings attributed to Abraham Lincoln is about deception:

You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.


but in T&T politicians keep fooling d ppl time after time ....

Politicians NOT fooling anybody ..

Trini People are very segregated in their thinking ..

Trini do not prescribe or believe any sensible or logical procedure ..

Or in other words : Trini do not TRUST any Gov't but vote per race ..

Well accept former PNM government minister Peter Taylor - He vex with Row Row over a woman

https://guardian.co.tt/news/kamla-pnm-s ... 8db5c29035

[shake d livin wake d dead]

This poll is sheit...what about the non voters....that will surpass everything

[aaron17]

One thing u have to admit, Rowley did give everybody their Covid cheque, even the SELFEMPLOYED

There is noway he losing this election after handing out all that free money to EVERYBODY.

Everything just simply align for him to be re-elected.

Rowley's re election campaign will be basically

1) Give everybody thousands of dollars for free to stay home and relax and protect their health.

2) Saved the country from Covid and defeated COVID in Trinidad atleast, squashed and flattened the curve.

3) Saved Trinidad from the IMF who would have forced the government to cut all our subsidies.

Yes I know there are lots of reason to hate the PNM but the swing voting electorate is going to look at this through transparent lens the type that people like us do not posses with our partisan lens.

They will re-elect him, he will continue to lead and govern Trinidad for the next 5 years.

Kamla will resign from politics, a new partnership will form with PEP and others, UNC will get an African leader making them the most progressive party breaking barriers of race relations.

By 2025 election UNC will win and some of us here reading this are likely not going to be alive as Covid will probably kill some of us, I will go for sure if I catch it and allyuh will rejoice since allyuh does be praying for meh to dead. An asteroid will hit earth in the year 3020 and the cure for aging will be developed just before this happens but humanity will be saved because we would have Teraformed Mars by then.

People will finally realize there was never any God and will inherit Mars in all her glory humans will then come to the realization that their true lord and savior is Elon Musk

Flat Earthers and Flat Marsers will still be a thing

In a Trillion Trillion Trillion Trillion years to be precise, the last star will die and then finally the last remnant of the last pulsar will finally go dim and the universe will cease to exist.

ED...the local Nostradamus.

[elec2020]

Is Kamla proposing to devalue the TT dollar? While understandable... given forex shortages... the last thing we need now is a higher cost of living (keeping in mind that most of what we consume is imported)... further shouldnt the need for a more competitive exchange rate diminished as the parties pushing for greater acess to foreign exchange (the business community) not getting the demand for their goods and services that they used to get (as evidenced by several closures)... so why the need for this devaluation now? It only seems to benefit the hoarders of foreign exchange (banks and private individuals)... this proposed policy change imo is flawed

https://trinidadexpress.com/business/lo ... ium=social

[Dizzy28]

Is Kamla proposing to devalue the TT dollar? While understandable... given forex shortages... the last thing we need now is a higher cost of living (keeping in mind that most of what we consume is imported)... further shouldnt the need for a more competitive exchange rate diminished as the parties pushing for greater acess to foreign exchange (the business community) not getting the demand for their goods and services that they used to get (as evidenced by several closures)... so why the need for this devaluation now? It only seems to benefit the hoarders of foreign exchange (banks and private individuals)... this proposed policy change imo is flawed

https://trinidadexpress.com/business/lo ... ium=social

One of the consequences of that subsidy is the depletion of T&T’s foreign reserves at the rate of US$1.5 billion a year. What is worse is that the subsidy of the US dollar perpetuates the population’s taste for foreign goods, which properly should be out of the financial reach of all but T&T’s wealthiest households. The ability of middle-income households to log on and purchase the trinket they saw on cable television the night before and then have the item shipped to their door is sucking the lifeblood out of the country.

Wow!!!
Yea the income and wealth of this country should only be for those at the upper echelons and not everyone

[elec2020]

^ that part of the article wasnt in inverted commas... so i think that was the author's words not Kamla... still it goes to show u how much we try to fight down one another... middle and lower class must always catch ass... but upper class... clear the way for them u peasants... this devaluation is unneccessary right now and imo i see no way how it helps to stimulate economic activity as... while a devaluation makes your exports more competitve... businesses are cutting staff... so even if u make their products more competitive who is to say they even have the productive capacities to make the most out of the supportive trade environment... moreover... higher exchange rate will have a far reaching negative impact on all aspects of everyday life... example... higher exchange rate will increase the cost of fuel (remember we import our fuel now)... if this is not subsidized we will get the higher price at the pumps and what happened in 2015 shortly after PNM rose gas prices... everything went up... can we handle that again when people losing their jobs... hetting their salaries cut... and just generally catching their nen nen... i wonder if these people does have economists on their campaign teams... no economist worth his/her salt would advise u to raise the exchange rate under these conditions

[5onDfloor]

^^^^ to split d unc votes ? cause we know pnm votes doh get split ...

Most likely , and how come PNM votes don't split? What inspires such loyalty that UNC and others can't match? Even along purely racial lines, why is the UNC vote so vulnerable to being split with third parties?

As Eric Williams said.... put up a crappo for the PNM and they will vote for it. Most base PNM supporters vote along racial lines, UNC people vote for other reasons.... therefore if there is a better prospect that can create change for the better they would vote accordingly.

The PNM base is just pure blind loyalty

Can you explain the PNM loyalist vote in 1986 (33-3)? and if that is too far back for your memory how about 2010 (29-12)?

2015? UNC voters unanimously supports their party sink or sail so what are the other reasons for the UNC voters to stay loyal to their Indian party other than race?

[shake d livin wake d dead]

Iirc, the last poll done on tuner on this same topic resulted in unc being the popular choice and they loss the election. Looks to be the same right now as well

[Dizzy28]

^^^^ to split d unc votes ? cause we know pnm votes doh get split ...

Most likely , and how come PNM votes don't split? What inspires such loyalty that UNC and others can't match? Even along purely racial lines, why is the UNC vote so vulnerable to being split with third parties?

As Eric Williams said.... put up a crappo for the PNM and they will vote for it. Most base PNM supporters vote along racial lines, UNC people vote for other reasons.... therefore if there is a better prospect that can create change for the better they would vote accordingly.

The PNM base is just pure blind loyalty

Can you explain the PNM loyalist vote in 1986 (33-3)? and if that is too far back for your memory how about 2010 (29-12)?

2015? UNC voters unanimously supports their party sink or sail so what are the other reasons for the UNC voters to stay loyal to their Indian party other than race?

Total votes does not win you an election (similar to USA where popular vote means nothing i.e. Trump)
In 2002 PNM won 298,629 votes, in 2007 (year of the COP) 299,885 and in 2010 at their lowest period since 1986) they obtained 284,244 votes.

UNC on the other hand had 273,028 in 2002, 202,538 in 2007 and 430,711 (PP) in 2010.

In 2015 PNM got 374,892 votes to the UNC's 337,316.

However you can clearly see the UNC lost more votes when there was a valid 3rd choice r.e. the 2007 COP. PNM actually increased their total votes in 2007.

OFC the chaNging size of the demographics needs to be taken into account but Jack Warner winning Chagauanas West which usually gives UNC thier largest margin of victory (difference between them and the PNM) also gives credence to the less sheep like nature of the yellow followers

[zoom rader]

^^^^ to split d unc votes ? cause we know pnm votes doh get split ...

Most likely , and how come PNM votes don't split? What inspires such loyalty that UNC and others can't match? Even along purely racial lines, why is the UNC vote so vulnerable to being split with third parties?

As Eric Williams said.... put up a crappo for the PNM and they will vote for it. Most base PNM supporters vote along racial lines, UNC people vote for other reasons.... therefore if there is a better prospect that can create change for the better they would vote accordingly.

The PNM base is just pure blind loyalty

Can you explain the PNM loyalist vote in 1986 (33-3)? and if that is too far back for your memory how about 2010 (29-12)?

2015? UNC voters unanimously supports their party sink or sail so what are the other reasons for the UNC voters to stay loyal to their Indian party other than race?

The NAR was seen as a black party and that's why PNM ppl turned.

It was also due to vast PNM corruption coming from Francis Prevat , Jonny O, Hugh Francis and the recession.

Had the NAR been a perceive indo party no way in hell they wining in 1986. The afro popular was and is still not mature in their voting and thinking patterns

TT Africans are still lock in to tribal voting.

[eliteauto]

Ensure you're registered to vote, you can check here:
https://www.ebctt.com/electoral-process ... n-look-up/

[Penguin]

UNC is more tribal than PNM, but it doesn't matter. Things evolve and change, what happened in the 80s, 2010 etc wasn't normal voting dynamics.

And it's easily seen in Trinidad that once we have a respectable 3rd party that appeals to the COP/NAR and disenchanted UNC/PNM supporters they will win hands down.

However, it takes the right mix of persons combined with massive disenchantment with an incumbent.

I'm heavily interested in politics and have gathered information from many well-connected persons and this is the consensus. Are these the facts? No, just a small sample size of persons working in top-level positions at a few state enterprises.

1. PP in 2010 did a lot of good, far better than PNM has done since 2015. However, the first 3 years of PP were different to the last 2.
2. PP is NOT UNC, and this new UNC is filled with incompetent inexperienced racists crooks.
3. UNC is relying solely on disenchantment with the PNM
4. PNM while doing relatively little to better our lives, perhaps making it worse in many ways, has been a more responsible government with better long term planning (compared to new UNC's ideas, not PP, PP is irrelevant now).
5. PNM is corrupt, however not as a corrupt as the UNC elements of PP were (Jack, Anil, Anand, Roodal)
6. PNM or UNC will privatize state companies, have mass layoffs, offer sh*tty VSEP packages (to some)
7. Both will devalue (in fact TTGov's economic recovery time is recommending a devalue to 7.2 later this year).
8. There are no intellectual minds, thinkers, experienced policymakers, and managers within UNC right now. Everyone who had capability has been thrown out.

[zoom rader]

UNC is more tribal than PNM, but it doesn't matter. Things evolve and change, what happened in the 80s, 2010 etc wasn't normal voting dynamics.

And it's easily seen in Trinidad that once we have a respectable 3rd party that appeals to the COP/NAR and disenchanted UNC/PNM supporters they will win hands down.

However, it takes the right mix of persons combined with massive disenchantment with an incumbent.

I'm heavily interested in politics and have gathered information from many well-connected persons and this is the consensus. Are these the facts? No, just a small sample size of persons working in top-level positions at a few state enterprises.

1. PP in 2010 did a lot of good, far better than PNM has done since 2015. However, the first 3 years of PP were different to the last 2.
2. PP is NOT UNC, and this new UNC is filled with incompetent inexperienced racists crooks.
3. UNC is relying solely on disenchantment with the PNM
4. PNM while doing relatively little to better our lives, perhaps making it worse in many ways, has been a more responsible government with better long term planning (compared to new UNC's ideas, not PP, PP is irrelevant now).
5. PNM is corrupt, however not as a corrupt as the UNC elements of PP were (Jack, Anil, Anand, Roodal)
6. PNM or UNC will privatize state companies, have mass layoffs, offer sh*tty VSEP packages (to some)
7. Both will devalue (in fact TTGov's economic recovery time is recommending a devalue to 7.2 later this year).
8. There are no intellectual minds, thinkers, experienced policymakers, and managers within UNC right now. Everyone who had capability has been thrown out.

What a load of bull5hit

Take you PNM horse5hit to the PNM mob.

Elite wey you does get these imps from.

[Dizzy28]

^^ How does one measure who more corrupt-
# of corrupttion scandals/# of years in power
Value of corruption per capita??
Some other measure?

I always like to know how does one determine this or is it just feels and totes

[zoom rader]

^^ How does one measure who more corrupt-
# of corrupttion scandals/# of years in power
Value of corruption per capita??
Some other measure?

I always like to know how does one determine this or is it just feels and totes

The guy is a clown and pushing a PNM agenda.

[Penguin]

^^ How does one measure who more corrupt-
# of corrupttion scandals/# of years in power
Value of corruption per capita??
Some other measure?

I always like to know how does one determine this or is it just feels and totes

Impossible to measure, there is a perceived corruption but that is obviously biased.

But ZR et al, tell me why did Kamla throw out her best most respected MPs, yet keep Roodal?

[redmanjp]

UNC winning by a landslide according to poll? or is mostly UNC supporters here on tuner? only 15 votes so far though

[elec2020]

^ i didnt realize the site had such a strong UNC base... no wonder PNM does get so much hate... lol... also explains why my comment on the article on Kamla's intent to devalue the currency was overlooked... que sera sera

[NR8]

Ensure you're registered to vote, you can check here:
https://www.ebctt.com/electoral-process ... n-look-up/

Put this in OP please.

[Dizzy28]

Interesting take on marginal constituencies

In 2002, Ghany designed a formula for the calculation of the outer limit of marginality. The inner limit of marginality will always be zero; but the outer limit is a moving target from election to election. Utilising his formula and applying it to the 2015 election results, constituencies won by a margin of 3,400 votes or less represent (based on the data) marginal constituencies.
As a result, the following are the marginal constituencies for the 2020 general elections:
Barataria/San Juan (540);
Chaguanas East (1,424);
Cumuto/Manzanilla (3,179);
La Horquetta/Talparo (2,822);
Mayaro (2,894);
Moruga/Tableland (533);
Pointe-a-Pierre (1,506);
San Fernando West (3,310);
St Joseph (1,633)

https://wired868.com/2020/07/09/st-jose ... TUQ2sUyeFM

[shake d livin wake d dead]

UNC winning by a landslide according to poll? or is mostly UNC supporters here on tuner? only 15 votes so far though

Mostly unc supporters on tuner...last poll in 2015 was the same and pnm won

[zoom rader]

^^ How does one measure who more corrupt-
# of corrupttion scandals/# of years in power
Value of corruption per capita??
Some other measure?

I always like to know how does one determine this or is it just feels and totes

Impossible to measure, there is a perceived corruption but that is obviously biased.

But ZR et al, tell me why did Kamla throw out her best most respected MPs, yet keep Roodal?

I am not a member of any party , so your guess is as good as mine.

[zoom rader]

UNC winning by a landslide according to poll? or is mostly UNC supporters here on tuner? only 15 votes so far though

Maybe a mudslide.

Election fraud will keep them at bay

[bluefete]

Really? Roger Hosein and some other economists always running their mouth about devaluing the dollar.

^ that part of the article wasnt in inverted commas... so i think that was the author's words not Kamla... still it goes to show u how much we try to fight down one another... middle and lower class must always catch ass... but upper class... clear the way for them u peasants... this devaluation is unneccessary right now and imo i see no way how it helps to stimulate economic activity as... while a devaluation makes your exports more competitve... businesses are cutting staff... so even if u make their products more competitive who is to say they even have the productive capacities to make the most out of the supportive trade environment... moreover... higher exchange rate will have a far reaching negative impact on all aspects of everyday life... example... higher exchange rate will increase the cost of fuel (remember we import our fuel now)... if this is not subsidized we will get the higher price at the pumps and what happened in 2015 shortly after PNM rose gas prices... everything went up... can we handle that again when people losing their jobs... hetting their salaries cut... and just generally catching their nen nen... i wonder if these people does have economists on their campaign teams... no economist worth his/her salt would advise u to raise the exchange rate under these conditions

[VexXx Dogg]

^^ How does one measure who more corrupt-
# of corrupttion scandals/# of years in power
Value of corruption per capita??
Some other measure?

I always like to know how does one determine this or is it just feels and totes

Corruption Perception Index?
https://www.transparency.org/en/countri ... and-tobago

I cant find a country score over time, and I don't have time to scrape the data and do a chart to show our CPI over the last n years.

[Penguin]

Interesting take on marginal constituencies

In 2002, Ghany designed a formula for the calculation of the outer limit of marginality. The inner limit of marginality will always be zero; but the outer limit is a moving target from election to election. Utilising his formula and applying it to the 2015 election results, constituencies won by a margin of 3,400 votes or less represent (based on the data) marginal constituencies.
As a result, the following are the marginal constituencies for the 2020 general elections:
Barataria/San Juan (540);
Chaguanas East (1,424);
Cumuto/Manzanilla (3,179);
La Horquetta/Talparo (2,822);
Mayaro (2,894);
Moruga/Tableland (533);
Pointe-a-Pierre (1,506);
San Fernando West (3,310);
St Joseph (1,633)

https://wired868.com/2020/07/09/st-jose ... TUQ2sUyeFM

Added in the results:

Barataria/San Juan (540); PP 2010, UNC 2015
Chaguanas East (1,424); PP 2010, UNC 2015
Cumuto/Manzanilla (3,179); PP 2010, UNC 2015
La Horquetta/Talparo (2,822); PP 2010, PNM 2015
Mayaro (2,894); PP 2010, PNM 2015
Moruga/Tableland (533); PP 2010, PNM 2015
Pointe-a-Pierre (1,506); PP 2010, UNC 2015
San Fernando West (3,310); PP 2010, PNM 2015
St Joseph (1,633); PP 2010, PNM 2015

I would add Tunapuna as well as Sangre Grande, though they both definitely slant toward PNM now.

Toco/ Sangre Grande; PP 2010, PNM 2015
Tunapuna; PP 2010, PNM 2015

These are the seats UNC will need to win back, remember they need 3 to win. (18 were won in 2015).

Of these 3, it's possible St Joseph, Moruga/Tableland will go back to UNC. However, I doubt they can win anything else.

[VexXx Dogg]

Really? Roger Hosein and some other economists always running their mouth about devaluing the dollar.

^ that part of the article wasnt in inverted commas... so i think that was the author's words not Kamla... still it goes to show u how much we try to fight down one another... middle and lower class must always catch ass... but upper class... clear the way for them u peasants... this devaluation is unneccessary right now and imo i see no way how it helps to stimulate economic activity as... while a devaluation makes your exports more competitve... businesses are cutting staff... so even if u make their products more competitive who is to say they even have the productive capacities to make the most out of the supportive trade environment... moreover... higher exchange rate will have a far reaching negative impact on all aspects of everyday life... example... higher exchange rate will increase the cost of fuel (remember we import our fuel now)... if this is not subsidized we will get the higher price at the pumps and what happened in 2015 shortly after PNM rose gas prices... everything went up... can we handle that again when people losing their jobs... hetting their salaries cut... and just generally catching their nen nen... i wonder if these people does have economists on their campaign teams... no economist worth his/her salt would advise u to raise the exchange rate under these conditions

Populists won't touch it.
Economists who are true to to their trade are saying it is the only sustainable move

[Penguin]

Really? Roger Hosein and some other economists always running their mouth about devaluing the dollar.

^ that part of the article wasnt in inverted commas... so i think that was the author's words not Kamla... still it goes to show u how much we try to fight down one another... middle and lower class must always catch ass... but upper class... clear the way for them u peasants... this devaluation is unneccessary right now and imo i see no way how it helps to stimulate economic activity as... while a devaluation makes your exports more competitve... businesses are cutting staff... so even if u make their products more competitive who is to say they even have the productive capacities to make the most out of the supportive trade environment... moreover... higher exchange rate will have a far reaching negative impact on all aspects of everyday life... example... higher exchange rate will increase the cost of fuel (remember we import our fuel now)... if this is not subsidized we will get the higher price at the pumps and what happened in 2015 shortly after PNM rose gas prices... everything went up... can we handle that again when people losing their jobs... hetting their salaries cut... and just generally catching their nen nen... i wonder if these people does have economists on their campaign teams... no economist worth his/her salt would advise u to raise the exchange rate under these conditions

We need to devalue for our survival, it's been long overdue.

[elec2020]

Really? Roger Hosein and some other economists always running their mouth about devaluing the dollar.

^ that part of the article wasnt in inverted commas... so i think that was the author's words not Kamla... still it goes to show u how much we try to fight down one another... middle and lower class must always catch ass... but upper class... clear the way for them u peasants... this devaluation is unneccessary right now and imo i see no way how it helps to stimulate economic activity as... while a devaluation makes your exports more competitve... businesses are cutting staff... so even if u make their products more competitive who is to say they even have the productive capacities to make the most out of the supportive trade environment... moreover... higher exchange rate will have a far reaching negative impact on all aspects of everyday life... example... higher exchange rate will increase the cost of fuel (remember we import our fuel now)... if this is not subsidized we will get the higher price at the pumps and what happened in 2015 shortly after PNM rose gas prices... everything went up... can we handle that again when people losing their jobs... hetting their salaries cut... and just generally catching their nen nen... i wonder if these people does have economists on their campaign teams... no economist worth his/her salt would advise u to raise the exchange rate under these conditions

That was before the covid shock... now... in an environment where businesses and individuals are feeling it... the last thing needed atm is an increase in prices... this will exaserbate the suppressive conditions... multiplying job losses, economic hardships and business closures... hosein was right... we needed a devaluation years ago... as the positive effects from boosting the trade competitiveness of the manufacturing sector would have cancelled out the negarive effects of an increase in prices... but as stated earlier... in this current climate... it is highly unlikely that manufacturers will boost production to the level needed to benefit from the devaulation given that several exporters have shut up shop or cut staff

[The_Honourable]

^^^^ to split d unc votes ? cause we know pnm votes doh get split ...

Most likely , and how come PNM votes don't split? What inspires such loyalty that UNC and others can't match? Even along purely racial lines, why is the UNC vote so vulnerable to being split with third parties?

As Eric Williams said.... put up a crappo for the PNM and they will vote for it. Most base PNM supporters vote along racial lines, UNC people vote for other reasons.... therefore if there is a better prospect that can create change for the better they would vote accordingly.

The PNM base is just pure blind loyalty

Can you explain the PNM loyalist vote in 1986 (33-3)? and if that is too far back for your memory how about 2010 (29-12)?

2015? UNC voters unanimously supports their party sink or sail so what are the other reasons for the UNC voters to stay loyal to their Indian party other than race?

The NAR was seen as a black party and that's why PNM ppl turned.

It was also due to vast PNM corruption coming from Francis Prevat , Jonny O, Hugh Francis and the recession.

Had the NAR been a perceive indo party no way in hell they wining in 1986. The afro popular was and is still not mature in their voting and thinking patterns

TT Africans are still lock in to tribal voting.

Raw but truth as usual. PNM not afraid of any indo party because they know the tribal dynamics will play off during elections. What they are afraid of and would not tolerate in any circumstances is a charismatic afro forming a party and getting popular especially among pnm strongholds. That is why PNM targeted Jack Warner from the beginning and now Watson Duke. If Jack didn't do his fifa foolishness, he would have split the PNM vote while he was in UNC or under ILP. If Watson takes Tobago, his party can now come Trinidad and work among the pnm strongholds. Once that happens you will see frothup. You understand why Rowley is uncomfortable and talking stupidness about not forgiving tobago if dey vote Duke?