.::The Official General Election 2015 Thread::.

[EmilioA]

LFMAO at the pseudo stats experts here.
Sample size matters significantly here. Are we sampling from the same data set? Every constituency has a different distribution. Hence, 1000 for the entire country equates to roughly 25 per constituency (assuming they sampled uniform random draws).....leaves high error low confidence intervals. For safe seats this is may be fine, but for marginals, you need at least 250 to draw a meaningful conclusion. However, some marginals are within 1% of the each other and no poll can give an answer at high confidence there.

Secondly, polling methodology is flawed in the HBB poll. Asking whom do you support as prime minister is different to asking who will you be voting for.

Thirdly, EmilioA, the reason i give more credit to NACTA is purely based on the fact that it was a constituency poll and not national, which is what determines the election outcome. In retrospect sample size had nothing to do with HBB being inaccurate. I just thought people may extrapolate HBB to a constituency level which is clearly flawed.

I'm starting to wonder if Daran can actually read.

From the article

The poll reflects the opinions and choices of the population as a whole and not individual constituencies.

Thus your first paragraph is irrelevant .

From the article

When asked which party they intended to vote for, 37 per cent of respondents said the PNM, while 30 per cent said the PP/UNC. The undecided respondents accounted for 31 per cent, while two per cent said Independent Liberal Party (ILP).

So your Second paragraph just plain wrong

And You previously said

Nacta is more reliable but those sample sizes are too small to draw definitive answers

So in the third paragraph you just plain lying.

[Allergic2BunnyEars]

Daran doesn't read. He said it before himself. Makes his posts irrelevant.

[Allergic2BunnyEars]

In fact I'm surprised he reads posts.

[Daran]

EmilioA, Take win, I did not read the previous post with the poll article. I had just the article about NACTA in the papers and on facebook, then I mixed up some of the info with HBB's poll. Regardless, it doesn't change the fact that a national poll of 1000 people is a poor predictor of the election outcome, which I'm sure they are fully aware of. Also, saw something on facebook on NACTA using 230 sample size. Anyone know if that was for the entire country or marginals only?

[megadoc1]

lol @ "Idid not read"

[Daran]

lol @ "Idid not read"

steups...a nickname in the making here?

[EmilioA]

EmilioA, Take win, I did not read the previous post with the poll article. I had just the article about NACTA in the papers and on facebook, then I mixed up some of the info with HBB's poll. Regardless, it doesn't change the fact that a national poll of 1000 people is a poor predictor of the election outcome, which I'm sure they are fully aware of. Also, saw something on facebook on NACTA using 230 sample size. Anyone know if that was for the entire country or marginals only?

Man, I know that becuase I posted that already. Steups , You really dont read.

Exactly. Now you can criticize the HHB poll on the basis that we dont actually have a single National Election. We have 41 Constituency elections. So a poll that doesn't account for constituencies is kinda useless for determining the winner of a parliamentary election.

But sample size ? I doubt Daran even read the article since Nacta didnt even post their sample size.

[Habit7]

Nacta is more reliable but those sample sizes are too small to draw definitive answers. In the end it's too close to call.

OAS meeting rejects Vishnu Bisram as credible pollster

AUGUST 24, 2009 | BY KNEWS | FILED UNDER FEATURES / COLUMNISTS,FREDDIE KISSOON 

The OAS hosted its annual Peer Review Meeting at the Miami International University in Florida. The confabulation was held to examine general conditions in the Caribbean and specifically to look at election campaign finance legislation in the Caribbean.

Those presenting case studies at the sessions were: Kenneth Monplaisir, Chairman of the St. Lucia Elections Commission; Peter Wickham of the Caribbean Development Bank; Steven Grinder, Advisor to the General-Secretary of the OAS; Paul Spenser and Pablo Zuniga representing the US Department of State; Professors Trevor Munroe and Cynthia Barrow-Giles of the UWI, Ramesh Deosarran of the Trinidad Senate and Sheila Holder of the Parliament of Guyana.

One of the conclusions of the sessions is that the countries of CARICOM should not recognize the poll results of Mr. Bisram of Guyana and Mr. Ramsamoosh of Trinidad.

The conclusions were that both men are working for Indian political parties and are inventing polls to serve the purposes of those parties. The sessions heard a complaint for a Barbadian pollster who told the gathering that his poll results were lifted whole-scale and presented as the work of a so-called pollster in the region. The meeting agreed to form a Caribbean Association of Pollster to be funded by the OAS.

The decision was taken to investigate both Bisram and Ramsamoosh. Guyanese media workers who need to know more about the discrediting of Mr. Bisram at this important conference of the OAS should contact Mrs. Holder who represented the Guyana Parliament.

It says nothing good for this country when other high-ranking officials from other countries could indict Mr. Vishu Bisram but right here in Guyana we could not see through the games this gentleman was playing even though Mr. Bisram’s findings were facetious, comical, incredible and highly unbelievable.

Mr. Bisram should have been sent packing last week after he did the most ridiculous thing – found that Dr. Leslie Ramsammy was the most popular Cabinet Minister. Ordinary people, but not us in the media, immediately latched on to this bizarre explanation.

The ordinary folks that go about their business without any pretense at being political observers came up to me and said, “Freddie, this is the same man de sey killed Waddell?” In a country dangerously divided like ours along racial lines, half of our population would not see Ramsammy in a good light. Even the Stabroek News Editorial yesterday took the position that Ramsammy’s credibility is in jeopardy.

Yesterday, in his column, Ravi Dev, perceived in this country among many as an Indian supremacist, came to the rescue of his long-standing friend and fellow Indian supremacist, Vishu Bisram. Let me quote Dev, and I will ask readers as they digest the following statement from Dev that they should reflect on the type of politicians we have produced in this country and that want to rule us.

It must be remembered that Dev is the leader of a political party that is represented in the Guyana Parliament. Here is Dev in his own words; “Whatever problems Mr. Kissoon may have about Mr. Bisram’s polls, he ought not to be influenced by Mr. Bisram’s place of employment.”

Mr. Dev knows perfectly well, and I stress the adverb, perfectly, that when we become opinion-makers, public figures and politicians, the public is entitled to know about us – how we earn a living, are we educated enough to engage in the occupation we possess; what is our track record so they can judge us.

Mr. Dev is either ignorant or feigning ignorance in that he knows that Mr. Bisram wrote more than twenty three times (I researched it) that he has been conducting polls for an organization named Nacta over a 20-year period and that all his life he has been a teacher.

Mr. Dev has to be silly not to know that when asked more than ten times where he teaches, Mr. Bisram goes back thirty years into his life and answered the question that he went to Corentyne High School with Khemraj Ramjattan. Mr. Dev has to be foolish not to know that no one can find in New York, a group called Nacta that has been conducting polls for over 20 years.

Mr. Dev once wrote that I should see a psychiatrist. I replied that I didn’t know where Mr. Dev earned his income but now I know he is a psychiatrist. Mr. Dev’s friend, Vishu Bisram is also a psychiatrist because everyday in last week, he has published a daily letter in the Chronicle examining my mental state using words that I hope Mr. Dev didn’t allow his children to read. But you know the old Guyanese saying; “Show me your company, I’ll tell you who you are.”

http://www.kaieteurnewsonline.com/2009/ ... -pollster/

[Kewell35]

That's all well and good what OAS said in 2009 but NACTA under Bisram was the only polling organization to predict the right results in Trinidad in 2007 and it also was accurate in 2010. They have gotten the results right in the past. No amount of words can detract that from them.

http://www.stabroeknews.com/2007/opinio ... -trinidad/

http://www.stabroeknews.com/2010/opinio ... correctly/

[Trinispougla]

The funny thing is that 2007 and 2010 were two of the easiest elections to predict. In 2007, the COP was an offshoot of the UNC. It was a new commodity on the political market and had credible faces as their representatives. That being said, they still were a product essentially of the UNC. Therefore even in UNC heartland, they were able to make ground. That however led to the splitting of votes in the marginals and the UNC safe seats,Chaguanas east is really a UNC seat but it became marginal only due to the COP votes which split UNC votes. I don't think anybody thought that the government would have changed due fractured nature of the opposition. The 2010 election was very different but also very easy to predict. The election was in itself a referendum on Mr Manning. The opposition this time was united and anti-Manning sentiment was at fever pitch levels. In addition too that, an election was called two and a half years before it was due. That gave the population a virtual license too change administrations. This is why even in so-called safe seats for the then government, the race to the end was very close. I think Colm Imbert only won his seat by a hundred or so votes and he only knew he won the next morning. There were very few undecideds in that election and voter turn out was very high, if I'm not mistaken something like 70 percent. This election though is very diffeent. Something like 31 percent of potential voters are undecided or at least say they are undecided. We don't know if these people are really undecided or are the simply holding their cards close to the chest. It would be foolhardy to say the poll will be the election result. I think we will know on the election datej

[Kewell35]

The funny thing is that 2007 and 2010 were two of the easiest elections to predict. In 2007, the COP was an offshoot of the UNC. It was a new commodity on the political market and had credible faces as their representatives. That being said, they still were a product essentially of the UNC. Therefore even in UNC heartland, they were able to make ground. That however led to the splitting of votes in the marginals and the UNC safe seats,Chaguanas east is really a UNC seat but it became marginal only due to the COP votes which split UNC votes. I don't think anybody thought that the government would have changed due fractured nature of the opposition. The 2010 election was very different but also very easy to predict. The election was in itself a referendum on Mr Manning. The opposition this time was united and anti-Manning sentiment was at fever pitch levels. In addition too that, an election was called two and a half years before it was due. That gave the population a virtual license too change administrations. This is why even in so-called safe seats for the then government, the race to the end was very close. I think Colm Imbert only won his seat by a hundred or so votes and he only knew he won the next morning. There were very few undecideds in that election and voter turn out was very high, if I'm not mistaken something like 70 percent. This election though is very diffeent. Something like 31 percent of potential voters are undecided or at least say they are undecided. We don't know if these people are really undecided or are the simply holding their cards close to the chest.

1. The 2007 election wasn't as easy as it sounds. Many people as well as the polls felt that the bigger rival to PNM was actually COP. COP getting 0 seats was not a common belief.

2. Even if it did, their methodology proved sound during those 2 elections.

[desifemlove]

The funny thing is that 2007 and 2010 were two of the easiest elections to predict. In 2007, the COP was an offshoot of the UNC. It was a new commodity on the political market and had credible faces as their representatives. That being said, they still were a product essentially of the UNC. Therefore even in UNC heartland, they were able to make ground. That however led to the splitting of votes in the marginals and the UNC safe seats,Chaguanas east is really a UNC seat but it became marginal only due to the COP votes which split UNC votes. I don't think anybody thought that the government would have changed due fractured nature of the opposition. The 2010 election was very different but also very easy to predict. The election was in itself a referendum on Mr Manning. The opposition this time was united and anti-Manning sentiment was at fever pitch levels. In addition too that, an election was called two and a half years before it was due. That gave the population a virtual license too change administrations. This is why even in so-called safe seats for the then government, the race to the end was very close. I think Colm Imbert only won his seat by a hundred or so votes and he only knew he won the next morning. There were very few undecideds in that election and voter turn out was very high, if I'm not mistaken something like 70 percent. This election though is very diffeent. Something like 31 percent of potential voters are undecided or at least say they are undecided. We don't know if these people are really undecided or are the simply holding their cards close to the chest.

in 2007, Panday would have won, or would have been 20-21. COP clearly split the vote...UNC in 2002 got near 300,000 votes nd in 2007 got 190,000. 2010 was different, Manning was a sheit and lost votes in his heartlands.

[rfari]

Who are Kamala's choices for the nation's highest award tmmrw???

[megadoc1]

how come the UNC is not campaigning as hard as they did for the last four elections they lost?

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

how come the UNC is not campaigning as hard as they did for the last four elections they lost?

they are campaigning online more than ever before though!
Sign of the times maybe.

[shogun]

how come the UNC is not campaigning as hard as they did for the last four elections they lost?

True this.

Last election they had trucks/music followed by supporters. This year, just a single truck, playing music and no supporters trailing the the trucks. *shrugs*

[rfari]

In TNT , what's the online penetration of social media by age demographics?

[zoom rader]

In TNT , what's the online penetration of social media by age demographics?

PNM areas and PNM Ppl affected the most as they not computer literate.

[K74T]

In TNT , what's the online penetration of social media by age demographics?

PNM areas affected the most as they not computer literate.

Nah more of the rural UNC/PP areas where there isn't any Internet.

[janfar]

In Trinidad, I'm sure close 99% of the people who cannot use a PC or social media (older folk) have already made up their mind on who to vote for. Hell, even Mrs. Putthehighwaybetweensheleg voting Kamla.

They are bombarding the youths, the young voters with propaganda, stylishly designed ads and blogs/ vids.

Daran will come an delve deeper into this as I'm sure he was the one that advised both parties to conduct their campaigns bin such a manner.

[zoom rader]

Well look thing PT Fortin is now a marginal .

[RASC]

Two ministers getting awards tomorrow:?::!:

[rfari]

Two ministers getting awards tomorrow:?::!:

Correct

[Kewell35]

Well look thing PT Fortin is now a marginal .

Where you get that from?

[janfar]

Two ministers getting awards tomorrow:?::!:

Which 2 ministers?

[EmilioA]

More poll.

A new poll by Political Scientist Dr. Hamid Ghany has indicated that the People's Partnership is leading in four out of six marginal constituencies and more persons want to see Kamla Persad-Bissessar return as Prime Minister.

The poll was conducted from the 21st to 24th of August and saw 2,328 questionnaires administered across the St. Joseph, Tunapuna, La Horquetta/Talparo, Toco/Sangre Grande, San Fernando West and Point Fortin constituencies, with a plus or minus margin of error of 3%.

When asked which group or party they would vote for, 42.3% said they would vote for the People's Partnership, 35.4% for the PNM, 5.4% for the ILP, 7.5% said they were Not Sure and 9.1% Did Not Know.

"So we have about 16% who are undecided in the polling that was done by the Constitutional Affairs and Parliamentary Studies Unit at the University of the West Indies which I lead.

In terms of the actual constituencies, those six, the Partnership is leading in four, so we are finding they are leading in St. Joseph, they are leading in Tunapuna, they are leading in Point Fortin and they are leading in La Horquetta/Talparo and there are two constituencies which are too close to call because it's inside the margin of error.

The PNM is slightly ahead in San Fernando West but it is inside the margin of error, so it's too close to call, and the Partnership is slightly ahead in Toco/Sangre Grande but it's inside the margin or error so it would be too close to call. So of those six, the Partnership is leading in four and it's too close to call in two of them."

http://ctntworld.com/cnews2/index.php?o ... Itemid=707

[hustla_ambition101]

The only poll that matters is on sept 7th...people can say anything on a questionaire or phonecall

[Kewell35]

More poll.

A new poll by Political Scientist Dr. Hamid Ghany has indicated that the People's Partnership is leading in four out of six marginal constituencies and more persons want to see Kamla Persad-Bissessar return as Prime Minister.

The poll was conducted from the 21st to 24th of August and saw 2,328 questionnaires administered across the St. Joseph, Tunapuna, La Horquetta/Talparo, Toco/Sangre Grande, San Fernando West and Point Fortin constituencies, with a plus or minus margin of error of 3%.

When asked which group or party they would vote for, 42.3% said they would vote for the People's Partnership, 35.4% for the PNM, 5.4% for the ILP, 7.5% said they were Not Sure and 9.1% Did Not Know.

"So we have about 16% who are undecided in the polling that was done by the Constitutional Affairs and Parliamentary Studies Unit at the University of the West Indies which I lead.

In terms of the actual constituencies, those six, the Partnership is leading in four, so we are finding they are leading in St. Joseph, they are leading in Tunapuna, they are leading in Point Fortin and they are leading in La Horquetta/Talparo and there are two constituencies which are too close to call because it's inside the margin of error.

The PNM is slightly ahead in San Fernando West but it is inside the margin of error, so it's too close to call, and the Partnership is slightly ahead in Toco/Sangre Grande but it's inside the margin or error so it would be too close to call. So of those six, the Partnership is leading in four and it's too close to call in two of them."

http://ctntworld.com/cnews2/index.php?o ... Itemid=707

PP leading in Point Fortin? I find that hard to believe.

[trinibourbon]

More poll.

A new poll by Political Scientist Dr. Hamid Ghany has indicated that the People's Partnership is leading in four out of six marginal constituencies and more persons want to see Kamla Persad-Bissessar return as Prime Minister.

The poll was conducted from the 21st to 24th of August and saw 2,328 questionnaires administered across the St. Joseph, Tunapuna, La Horquetta/Talparo, Toco/Sangre Grande, San Fernando West and Point Fortin constituencies, with a plus or minus margin of error of 3%.

When asked which group or party they would vote for, 42.3% said they would vote for the People's Partnership, 35.4% for the PNM, 5.4% for the ILP, 7.5% said they were Not Sure and 9.1% Did Not Know.

"So we have about 16% who are undecided in the polling that was done by the Constitutional Affairs and Parliamentary Studies Unit at the University of the West Indies which I lead.

In terms of the actual constituencies, those six, the Partnership is leading in four, so we are finding they are leading in St. Joseph, they are leading in Tunapuna, they are leading in Point Fortin and they are leading in La Horquetta/Talparo and there are two constituencies which are too close to call because it's inside the margin of error.

The PNM is slightly ahead in San Fernando West but it is inside the margin of error, so it's too close to call, and the Partnership is slightly ahead in Toco/Sangre Grande but it's inside the margin or error so it would be too close to call. So of those six, the Partnership is leading in four and it's too close to call in two of them."

http://ctntworld.com/cnews2/index.php?o ... Itemid=707

PP leading in Point Fortin? I find that hard to believe.

The amount of HDC houses they gave away about 5 months ago that isn't surprising totally.

[RASC]

Who in their right mind would believe that poll?

Tunapuna?
Sando West?
Point Fortin?

Those by everyone else's estimations are going the way of the PNM.
This is the FIRST and ONLY poll that is preaching the opposite.
Featured on CNMG none the less-