COVID-19 in Trinidad & Tobago (Local Updates & Discussions Only)

[adnj]

sweden's mortality is twice that of ours, an ours is based on our official rate of sampling, which every one will agree was very limited. sweden limited gatherings to no more than 50, masks and social distancing were recommendations as opposed to hard enforced rules. they do acknowledge that a significant portion of their deaths occurred in the old age homes.
they also have their borders open.
last i know they haven't acheived herd immunity, but it is their target, and they say u get that from 40 to 60% of the population getting anitbodies, and thus enough of the population woudl not be able to transmit it again.

their economy slowed down because citizens were choosing to reduce their activity as well as their trade partners not trading as much. contrasting our lock down, and maintenance of such.

what do you mean Sweden's mortality rate is twice that of ours?
Sweden has suffered 3,698 deaths in a population of 10 million as of today
T&T has suffered 8 deaths in a population of 1.4 million as of today
What are you checking? percentage of those infected?

based on confirmed cases. they had like 29,600~ cases.

Yes it's over 30,000 now. But I am trying to understand your maths when you say "sweden's mortality is twice that of ours".

probably outright mortality is incorrect to use. but was comparing it according to infected, not sure what term to use for that.

just seeing how deadly the virus is to those who contract it. is it a death sentence or is it escapable. so if u can risk some infection because its somewhat survivable, and let the majority continue, until herd is achieved.

Case fatality rate (CFR) is the death rate of detected cases.

Infection fatality rate (IFR) is the death rate from the extrapolated number of infections in a population.

Herd immunity is possible for Corona viruses after a 50% to 70% rate of infection.

CFR varies by region because of testing methods and reporting procedures.

IFR had not been determined for SARS-CoV2 because the infections were not sufficiently widespread until recently.

The current IFR is 0.4% and could be as high as 1.3%

Herd immunity will require 0.2% to 0.3% of the population to die. 2600 to 3900 additional deaths in TT. In the USA, about 700K to 1050K, about ten times the current models' projections of deaths. That also assumes a robust medical care system with no facilities shortages that will make the numbers even higher.

The death toll in TT could be as high as 12,000 to reach herd immunity; and 3.2 million in the USA.

-----------

Research team determines COVID-19 infection fatality rate

 May 4, 2020 , University of Bonn


The IFR is different to the case fatality rate (CFR). For various reasons, the IFR is considered the more reliable parameter and there is an international demand to have a more accurate understanding of the fatality of SARS-CoV2. "For the first time, our data enables us to estimate how many people have been infected after the superspreading event. Approximately 15 percent of Gangelt had been infected. The total number of infections allows us to determine the infection fatality rate. In Gangelt, the IFR after the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak is 0.37 percent," says lead investigator Prof. Dr. Hendrik Streeck, Director of the Institute for Virology at the University Hospital Bonn.

https://www.healthleadersmedia.com/covi ... ty-rate-13

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05- ... ality.html

[pugboy]

has there in history ever been a case on "waiting until herd immunity" purposely ?

granted we may not have a choice until a vaccine if/can be developed.
but the costs of losing older folks, family, parents makes it not as simple as saying we should look to herd immunity.

I think with mers or sars the R contagious factor was not as high as c19 so it waned out on its own
c19 definitely not going to do that, it has proven to be much much more contagious than a flu

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronav ... h-flu.html

The death rate from seasonal flu is typically around 0.1% in the U.S.

Researchers from Colombia University recently estimated that only 1 in 12 cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. are documented, which they said would translate to an infection fatality rate of about 0.6%
South Korea initially reported a case fatality rate of 0.6% in early March, but it later rose to 1.7% by the beginning of April,

It's important to note that there is no one death rate for COVID-19; the rate can vary by location, age of person infected and the presence of underlying health conditions

Among reported COVID-19 cases in the U.S., nearly 6% have died. This is what's known as the case fatality rate, which is determined by dividing the number of deaths by the total number of confirmed cases. But the case fatality rate is limited for a few reasons. First, not everyone with COVID-19 is being diagnosed with the disease — this is in part due to testing limitations in the U.S. and the fact that people who experience mild or moderate symptoms may not be eligible for or seek out testing. As the number of confirmed cases goes up, the fatality rate may decrease.

The flu has an R0 value of about 1.3.

Researchers are still working to determine the R0 for COVID-19. Preliminary studies estimated an R0 value for the new coronavirus to be between 2 and 3. Some studies suggest COVID-19 has an even higher R0 value. For example, a study published April 7 in the journal Emerging Infectious Disease used mathematical modeling to calculate an R0 of nearly 6 in China.

[Dohplaydat]

has there in history ever been a case on "waiting until herd immunity" purposely ?

granted we may not have a choice until a vaccine if/can be developed.
but the costs of losing older folks, family, parents makes it not as simple as saying we should look to herd immunity.

I think with mers or sars the R contagious factor was not as high as c19 so it waned out on its own
c19 definitely not going to do that, it has proven to be much much more contagious than a flu

It wasn't as high, but also the contagiousness (word?) of Covid is due to the asymptomatics whereas in SARS or MERS I don't believe there were many asymptomatic cases and also it was only contagious when symptoms were being shown.

The Spanish Flu is an example of waiting or herd immunity, took 3 years btw.

[redmanjp]

has there in history ever been a case on "waiting until herd immunity" purposely ?

granted we may not have a choice until a vaccine if/can be developed.
but the costs of losing older folks, family, parents makes it not as simple as saying we should look to herd immunity.

I think with mers or sars the R contagious factor was not as high as c19 so it waned out on its own
c19 definitely not going to do that, it has proven to be much much more contagious than a flu

It wasn't as high, but also the contagiousness (word?) of Covid is due to the asymptomatics whereas in SARS or MERS I don't believe there were many asymptomatic cases and also it was only contagious when symptoms were being shown.

The Spanish Flu is an example of waiting or herd immunity, took 3 years btw.

and it killed 50 million people worldwide, which may have been about 3% of the population back then.

Now if it weren't for a high R0 perhaps caused by asymptomatic spread we in T&T could open back faster, but with a high R0 it means even 1 or 2 unknown cases can easily explode to say 100 after a few weeks, unlike the flu.

Asymptomatic spread is what worrying the Govt or more so the CMO. He says it's very low, but it isn't 0 either.

https://trinidadexpress.com/newsextra/cmo-explains-why-t-t-is-reopening/article_d926169e-9925-11ea-bb0e-934bb6b13c51.html

CMO explains why T&T is reopening
Khamarie Rodriguez 3 hrs ago


Dr. Roshan Parasram


The chances of asymptomatic spread of COVID-19 in Trinidad and Tobago is extremely low.

This according to the Chief Medical Officer Dr Roshan Parasram who spoke at a virtual press conference on Monday, during which he assured members of the public that the phased reopening of the country was a decision made based on epidemiological evidence.

According to Parasram, the recommendations given to the Government by medical experts concerning the lifting of restrictions that began on May 10, were based on community testing, viral illness numbers and other relevant factors.

“I think we took the decisions that we took in terms of advising the Prime Minister and other ministers regarding the epidemiological progress of this disease based on what we were seeing, based on testing, based on the number of acute viral illnesses that were coming into our facilities, based on the number of deaths that we were seeing. There are a number of factors that we took into consideration,” he said.

Parasram said that international statistics indicate that asymptomatic spread can present new cases within the primary contacts of the carrier. This data is based on serological or antibody testing which shows the presence of the virus post infection. As a result, he said that in a single household, an asymptomatic carrier would transmit the virus to at least one primary contact.

“When you deal with asymptomatic carriers we are talking about international statistics, it is a brand-new virus and the data is coming forward as to what level of asymptomatic carriers you’re getting. A lot of the data is based on serological testing which is antibody testing saying that there is an antibody present ten to 15 days post-infection because the PCR result for an asymptomatic person is generally negative, which we have seen in Trinidad as well.”

“If you have asymptomatic carriers there would be for instance if there is one person in a household who is asymptomatic, carrying the disease, chances are that their primary contact which is their household members, one of the other persons will present with illness,” he said.

Based on this, he said that there has been no observed evidence of a large-scale presence of asymptomatic carriers as there have been no presenters of the virus in 23 days.

“We haven't seen any evidence of a large scale in Trinidad at least. As our numbers continue to be very low even in people coming in to seek attention and testing, the expected outcome is that the level of transmission in the country as a whole, whether it be asymptomatic, mildly symptomatic is extremely low. Just to go back to the fact that we had our last 116 case 23 days ago there has been no presentation of a severe case, a mild case or anything of the sort. That is going very close to now two incubation periods in length,” he said.

The recommendations made to reopen, he said would not have been made without the evidence needed to support it. Without evidence of asymptomatic spread, he said that experts felt comfortable with the phased reopening. He added that if there was a present risk of transmission, the reopening would not have been recommended.

“I think we are comfortable and we would not have made the recommendation to the other Ministers if we were not comfortable that the level of transmission in the country was significantly low to allow for increased mobility of people. It would have been putting us all at risk. We make recommendations based on what we see before us epidemiologically. We will not put the population at risk in any form or fashion. If we thought there was a risk of transmission, we would not have recommended that we do the phased opening at this time,” he said.

[pugboy]

right now we should be most worried about the venes bringing it over
more than enough time has passed with our official borders locked down.

the moh idiots keep harping on local spread controls which is fine but they have no idea the numbers of venes coming in everyday.

the far reaches of brazil have been infected badly and they dont have a clue over there so its only a matter of time before the vene outbreak starts accelerating, unless delcy and stuey have things under control

[shogun]

right now we should be most worried about the venes bringing it over

Word.

Should be the potential point of entry in focus, right about now.

[sMASH]

^^ now?

[MaxPower]

Once again folks...it was pure luck that saved T&T.

We can safely say that the virus was never here.

So unfair for a country that is so irresponsible to get away from pandemics and natural disasters.

A wake up call is needed....it wont be funny and i will not like it, but allyuh really need something.

EHH???

Harsh eh?

No one likes to hear the solution for change.

It probably inflaming your chest that given your ad nauseam attacks on "allyuh Trinis" and their unhygienic practices, that the outbreak wasn't worse, and we didn't end up like Venezuela ent?

Unhygienic practices should have come with a penalty.

In this crisis, the TTPS and army should have been out charging and arresting people for not complying with restrictions and measures. T&T needs discipline.

And for both you and my boy shakes, had this virus been a lot more deadly, all the irresponsible Trinis would have dropped like flies. T&T would have been a better place overnight. Again, i am not proud to say it, but i guarantee you the societal change that will follow. No need to reply, i get both your points.

Keep well.

[redmanjp]

Is this like the THIRD time someone meet their death due to breaching the Covid restrictions?

https://trinidadexpress.com/news/local/how-the-brothers-drowned/article_3cbfa408-9977-11ea-b606-0bd27b9bd299.html?fbclid=IwAR3CpmtuQDlnbS8wXKEeHqfqwfsJ6mN9uBM85vcR9vQZ4akMx0QS3ammiwc#utm_campaign=blox&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social

[paid_influencer]

Is this like the THIRD time someone meet their death due to breaching the Covid restrictions?

https://trinidadexpress.com/news/local/how-the-brothers-drowned/article_3cbfa408-9977-11ea-b606-0bd27b9bd299.html?fbclid=IwAR3CpmtuQDlnbS8wXKEeHqfqwfsJ6mN9uBM85vcR9vQZ4akMx0QS3ammiwc#utm_campaign=blox&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social

^ and is mostly children dying, too

[redmanjp]

passed on edward st POS, workers at a certain arabian food place not wearing masks, then i whizzed by a computer shop nearby supposedly 'CLOSED', but i see a lady talking to someone through the door about some item she bought from them

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

[redmanjp]

is that 2647 total tests= unique patients?

[paid_influencer]

interesting that Trinidad and Grenada have the same number of tests, but we have 10x their population.

Barbados has 1,000+ more tests than us with 1/5 the population

[Dizzy28]

is that 2647 total tests= unique patients?

No. This morning's release from MoH is 2308 unique patients.

[redmanjp]

[pugboy]

moh was stingy with testing in the earlies, I know persons who were sick and refused.

now with ian alleyne publicity nobody wants to get lockup for 3-4 weeks sleeping on hard bed even if your case negative

interesting that Trinidad and Grenada have the same number of tests, but we have 10x their population.

Barbados has 1,000+ more tests than us with 1/5 the population

[Rajeevr84]

I've actually done some charting for cases, testing, and some other stuff for our region.

These are the Tests Per Million:
Click here to see it animated over time -> https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/2070859/


These are the raw Test Numbers. I can't say if it's being given as raw numbers or individual tests (for T&T it's raw tests numbers).
Click here to see it animated over time -> https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/2070941/


Raw cases and cases per million are here:
Click here to see it animated over time ->https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1990701/

Click here to see it animated over time ->https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1992478/


Our tests conducted per million is certainly quite low. However, I do think if our positive tests grew more quickly there'd be a bigger push to increase tests.

You can see our growth stagnated quite quickly compared to others in the region.

[redmanjp]

moh was stingy with testing in the earlies, I know persons who were sick and refused.

now with ian alleyne publicity nobody wants to get lockup for 3-4 weeks sleeping on hard bed even if your case negative

interesting that Trinidad and Grenada have the same number of tests, but we have 10x their population.

Barbados has 1,000+ more tests than us with 1/5 the population

but dey ha wifi & cable now.. flow hook dem up

[paid_influencer]

those are good graphs rajveer

also, mask breath is real


why is maskbreath real?

when you exhale, your body is releasing waste products - mainly air that has too little oxygen and too much carbon dioxide. when you wear a mask, you re-breathe in that exhaled air - so the oxygen levels in your mouth become lower. Lower oxygen levels cause bad breath bacteria to replicate and make your breath funky.

[MaxPower]

those are good graphs rajveer

also, mask breath is real


why is maskbreath real?

when you exhale, your body is releasing waste products - mainly air that has too little oxygen and too much carbon dioxide. when you wear a mask, you re-breathe in that exhaled air - so the oxygen levels in your mouth become lower. Lower oxygen levels cause bad breath bacteria to replicate and make your breath funky.

Yeh boi juhhhh,

And Trinis done already dont brush their teeth.

Ting to burn hole through dem mask, better they wear a basin or sumn.

Under all seriousness maskbreath happens.

Drinking water often helps though.

[pugboy]

I still ain’t hear deal Singh say anything bout masks with exhale valves
Those less likely to smell up with bad breath

[shogun]

[FrankChag]

Thought the main risk was opening boarders to the US.. covid-infected (new) illegal Venezuelans is a risk I honestly didn't consider until now.

Anyone has any hard facts on whether that is being better managed now?
(ie, Venezuelans coming in illegally, icacos border control, etc)

[adnj]

Some have tested positive for COVID-19 after recovering. What does that mean?

May 19, 2020, 6:32 PM EDT

By Erika Edwards

At least 14 sailors aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt who had recovered from COVID-19 have tested positive for a second time, raising questions about immunity and whether people can catch the coronavirus shortly after getting better.

Experts said the perplexing test results don't necessarily establish that a person can become infected twice — the positive results following negative tests may be a quirk related to the type of test that was used.

Nearly all of the diagnostic tests for COVID-19 in the U.S. look for snippets of the virus' RNA, or genetic code. (Another type of diagnostic test, called an antigen test, looks for proteins from the virus.)

But according to guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, "detection of viral RNA does not necessarily mean that infectious virus is present." In other words, the test may be picking up a piece of the viral RNA that's been left behind, rather than a fully intact, infectious virus particle.

A second positive test after a negative result may mean the virus is simply taking its time leaving the body, doctors said, and is no longer able to infect others.

"It's possible that people could shed remnants of the virus for some period of time. That doesn't mean anything is wrong with them or that they are contagious," said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Nashville.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... s-n1210361

[greggle71]

The scary proposition in the story above is, were those supposedly recovered sailors actually reinfected or did the virus just go dormant in their system and can reload itself to a detectable form based on other health factors?

[adnj]

Coronavirus research updates: An antibody blocks the new coronavirus and an older relative

19 May — An antibody blocks the new coronavirus and an older relative

An antibody discovered in the blood of a person who survived SARS could help others to fight COVID-19.

The coronavirus that caused the 2003 SARS outbreak is a distant relative of SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for the current pandemic. The newfound antibody, dubbed S309, recognizes and blocks both viruses, report David Veesler at the University of Washington in Seattle, Davide Corti at Vir Biotechnology in Bellinzona, Switzerland, and their colleagues (D. Pinto et al. Nature https://doi.org/dv4x; 2020).

The antibody is an immune signalling molecule that attaches to a viral protein called spike, which both viruses use to enter human cells. The team’s structural analysis shows that S309 binds to a location on spike that is distinct from the attachment site of some of the person’s other coronavirus-targeted antibodies. Two cocktails, each combining one of these two antibodies with S309, were better at blocking the virus than was each antibody alone.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00502-w

[hondablood]

Thought the main risk was opening boarders to the US.. covid-infected (new) illegal Venezuelans is a risk I honestly didn't consider until now.

Anyone has any hard facts on whether that is being better managed now?
(ie, Venezuelans coming in illegally, icacos border control, etc)

still coming and going normal,Quinam,Beach rd Palo Seco, ,Morne Diablo,Bunsee Trace Penal,Oropouche.Cremation site etc.

[Dizzy28]

Thought the main risk was opening boarders to the US.. covid-infected (new) illegal Venezuelans is a risk I honestly didn't consider until now.

Anyone has any hard facts on whether that is being better managed now?
(ie, Venezuelans coming in illegally, icacos border control, etc)

Misspelling border seems to be quite common place here and on social media. A boarder is
1. A person who receives regular meals when staying somewhere, in return for payment or services.
2. A pupil who lives in school during term time
3. A person who forces their way on to a ship in an attack

The boundaries of the country is Border.