The *Official* LOCAL Election Thread (2013)

[rfari]

Well while UNC ministers on the platform poor scorn on PNM rule, in international press they claim ownership of PNM policies.
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2013/11/03/trin ... s-economy/

Borrow and spend ftw

Typical. Forgery and skulduggery is all they know

[RASC]

Oh yes. We are but 4 mins away from another PNM victory

Someone keep a close eye on ZoomRader Et Al. Its gonna be a bumpy road of butt hurtness and tears.

[rocknrolla]

word is st joseph dont even know who the pnm representative is.. neither by name, nor face lol

[zoom rader]

Oh yes. We are but 4 mins away from another PNM victory

Someone keep a close eye on ZoomRader Et Al. Its gonna be a bumpy road of butt hurtness and tears.

I kinda love when PNM smell a lil power cause it means more Afros suffers under PNM that any other goverment. Worst if you was classed as a lick bottom afro from PNM.

[RASC]

Oh yes. We are but 4 mins away from another PNM victory

Someone keep a close eye on ZoomRader Et Al. Its gonna be a bumpy road of butt hurtness and tears.

I kinda love when PNM smell a lil power cause it means more Afros suffers under PNM that any other goverment. Worst if you was classed as a lick bottom afro from PNM.

[RASC]

word is st joseph dont even know who the pnm representative is.. neither by name, nor face lol

[DFC]

this thread has rustled so much jimmies.
And its only now begun.


Early congrats Mr. Ian Alleyne.

[Habit7]

Did ILP really split the vote?
Published: Monday, November 4, 2013
Nigel Henry

If the Independent Liberal Party (ILP) did not “split” the vote—as is the prevailing interpretation of the local government elections results go—instead of winning eight of the 14 corporations, the People’s National Movement (PNM) would have won seven of the 14 corporations. That’s right. Even if all 102,814 votes cast for the ILP in the local government elections were added to the People’s Partnership (PP) total, the PNM would still control the Por-of-Spain, San Fernando, Arima, Point Fortin, Diego Martin, San Juan/Laventille and Tunapuna/Piarco Corporations today.
Those who have emphasised that the PNM failed to win a majority of votes cast do have a valid point. In many cases—17 districts to be exact—a PNM candidate was elected councillor when a majority of people wanted someone else.

The fact that a candidate can win with a plurality, rather than a majority, of votes is considered by many to be a major flaw in the first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system, which can only be cured by strategic voting or conversion to another electoral system such as a run-off system or proportional representation (PR). The concept of the split vote is simple. Suppose 40 of 100 voters prefer candidate A, and the other 60, while opposed to candidate A, are split 35-25 in support between candidates B and C. In the FPTP system, supporters of candidate C must choose between voting for their preferred candidate “to make a statement,” or voting for candidate B to avoid candidate A from winning. Such a vote for the “lesser of two evils” is called “strategic voting.” Of course, strategic voting requires accurate pre-election measurement (polling) and a sophisticated and informed electorate. A two-round “run-off” voting system solves this problem by allowing voters to choose the candidate or party of their preference on the first ballot, and then return to the polls to chose between the two front runners in cases where no candidate wins a majority on the first ballot.

This system ensures that the winner is elected by a majority vote, and still allows the preferences of the electorate to accurately reflect in the results of the first ballot. So what happened in the local government elections? How would the results have differed if voters were able to chose between two candidates, without the impact of a confounding third choice? It is very difficult to decipher voter intent without asking them directly (in other words a poll), but we can look for hints in the data we have. When compared against the 2003 local government election results, which were nearly identical to this year’s results in terms of the district-level outcomes, the PNM lost 11 points from 53.3 per cent in 2003 to 42.2 per cent this year. The United National Congress (UNC)/National Alliance for Reconstruction (NAR) accommodation lost 12 points from 46.4 per cent to 34.5 per cent this year for the PP. This means that each party or coalition contributed roughly equally in terms of historical supporters to the ILP’s 23 per cent support in 2013.


However, there is no question that the ILP) performed better in historically UNC areas, than historically PNM areas. There is a very strong positive correlation between the ILP vote and the UNC vote, and a very strong negative correlation between the ILP vote and the PNM vote. The ILP did best in Chaguanas and Couva/Tabaquite/Talparo and worst in Port-of-Spain and San Fernando.
It takes some tricky analysis to see how the two can be true at the same time. The answer is that in PNM-dominated areas the ILP took most of their votes from historical PNM supporters, in UNC-dominated areas the ILP took a large chunk of votes from historical UNC supporters, and in battleground areas such as those in Siparia and Mayaro/Rio Claro, the ILP actually performed quite poorly. In 42 competitive three-way races, defined as districts in which no candidate won a majority, the People’s Partnership won 23, the PNM 17 and the ILP 2. Of those 42 seats, 11 were won by the PNM in corporations that the PNM would have won anyway, and 18 were won by the PP in corporations that the PP would have controlled anyway.

For example, nine of these “split-vote” seats fell in PP-dominated Couva/Tabaquite/Talparo Corporation, and the PP claimed eight of these nine. In other words, the analysis shows that there probably already is a fair degree of strategic voting in the population. Everyone wants their vote to be counted, and nobody wants their vote to be “wasted.” In terms of turnout, there is a great correlation between the districts where there is significantly larger turnout, and the districts where the ILP did well. Of the top one-third of districts with greatest increase in turnout over the last local government elections three years ago, the ILP captured 25 per cent of the vote, compared to 21 per cent in the districts where turnout was marginal higher or stagnant. This compares with a vote difference of +2 per cent for the PNM and -7 per cent for the PP in districts with the highest increase in turnout. This hints that the emergence of the ILP had some impact on creating the record-breaking voter turnout this year. While the evidence suggests that vote “splitting” did not affect the overall result of the local government elections, there were some areas where it did. Two of the most fiercely competitive three-way races were in San Juan East and Valsayn/St Joseph. These are two of the four districts that intersect with the parliamentary district of St Joseph that votes today. Valsayn is particularly friendly to third-party candidates where Congress of the People (COP) candidate Gillian Lucky actually captured more votes than her two competitors in a losing effort in 2007.

This article was written by Nigel Henry of Solution by Simulation, a private firm that uses computer modelling to provide insight into political contexts. Solution by Simulation accurately predicted the outcome of the Tobago House of Assembly election, published in our January 14 edition.

http://www.guardian.co.tt/news/2013-11- ... split-vote

This is why I love Solution by Simulation, analytical, factual information and not just regurgitated platform rhetoric.

I do like that run off system though, I think it is fairer than the proportional representation system that was foisted on us in an attempt to give COP and UNC a chance in ethnically heterogeneous areas but failed and still saw PNM giving them a red wash.

[rfari]

Nice article
Solution by simulation is the future. The guys knw their stuff.

In the meantime
ST JOSEPH! HOME!
*drinks another bottle of rhum and talks crap for concession speech*

[New_SPECIES]

New_species aka mr monkey logic in le ched yo!

Imagine... even Monkey Logic to advanced for an illiterate PNM racist like yourself.

[rfari]

New_species aka mr monkey logic in le ched yo!

Imagine... even Monkey Logic to advanced for an illiterate PNM racist like yourself.

*too
Idiot

[img]http://static.fjcdn.com/large/pictures/43/41/4341ad_3700236.jpg[/img]

[ilove3]

So from all this, I have learnt that kjaglal76 is an epic racist #$%@ of little intelligence who eat ah lil peice ah chain up fuh de true imps in him to jump out; rfari and habit7 is pnm till Jesus comes and Pioneer stop trolling as much... and Aunty Ian is ah opportunist who proally start bullin fuh money. Or vice.

[nemisis]

^^^ it's Ian so why not both?

[16 cycles]

Hope pnm releases an authentic "dear kamla/jack" letter after victory...would be epic..

[ilove3]

^^^ it's Ian so why not both?

And position fuh sure too...

[Habit7]

Wow, I voted in one general election and so now I have been instantly pigeonholed into a "PNM till ah dead."

ilove3 I think you are just as guilty of the superficial stereotyping you are accusing kjaglal76 of.

[rfari]

I studying to make meh first tattoo a baliser with a dr eric williams in the foreground. Nothing too big. Prolly on my lower arm.
If not that then a baliser wrap around my voting finger. Small as well. Nothing too big

[kjaglal76]

I studying to make meh first tattoo a baliser with a dr eric williams in the foreground. Nothing too big. Prolly on my lower arm.
If not that then a baliser wrap around my voting finger. Small as well. Nothing too big

[rfari]

srs ting mamoo.

[eliteauto]

I studying to make meh first tattoo a baliser with a dr eric williams in the foreground. Nothing too big. Prolly on my lower arm.
If not that then a baliser wrap around my voting finger. Small as well. Nothing too big

[ilove3]

Wow, I voted in one general election and so now I have been instantly pigeonholed into a "PNM till ah dead."

ilove3 I think you are just as guilty of the superficial stereotyping you are accusing kjaglal76 of.

Habit7, yuh could ever see yuhself voting fuh anybody else other than the PNM?

[zoom rader]

I studying to make meh first tattoo a baliser with a dr eric williams in the foreground. Nothing too big. Prolly on my lower arm.
If not that then a baliser wrap around my voting finger. Small as well. Nothing too big

pretty soon all party members will need the PNM tattoo to get anything done and handouts. Party cards will be no more, Nazis also had their SS tattoos .

[ilove3]

I studying to make meh first tattoo a baliser with a dr eric williams in the foreground. Nothing too big. Prolly on my lower arm.
If not that then a baliser wrap around my voting finger. Small as well. Nothing too big

Take he orn. De last time I see he, he had three drops of de rising sun tatooed under he lef eye

[rocknrolla]

if jack warner becomes leader of the pnm. will pnm till a deads still vote pnm?

[Habit7]

Wow, I voted in one general election and so now I have been instantly pigeonholed into a "PNM till ah dead."

ilove3 I think you are just as guilty of the superficial stereotyping you are accusing kjaglal76 of.

Habit7, yuh could ever see yuhself voting fuh anybody else other than the PNM?

Yeah, UNC, COP, DNA I can vote for them if the put up the best candidate backed by a competent leader. I cant ever see myself voting for ILP though.

If Rowley (Alleyne's first choice) had put up Mr. Wetting as a candidate for my constituency, definitely he wont get my vote.

[ilove3]

Wow, I voted in one general election and so now I have been instantly pigeonholed into a "PNM till ah dead."

ilove3 I think you are just as guilty of the superficial stereotyping you are accusing kjaglal76 of.

Habit7, yuh could ever see yuhself voting fuh anybody else other than the PNM?

Yeah, UNC, COP, DNA I can vote for them if the put up the best candidate backed by a competent leader. I cant ever see myself voting for ILP though.

If Rowley (Alleyne's first choice) had put up Mr. Wetting as a candidate for my constituency, definitely he wont get my vote.

Fair enough. But what about the foreseeable future?

[Habit7]

I am willing to try Rowley, his track record on integrity and performance altogether compared to others makes him the best viable candidate for PM. But if he fails, whether I am still here on tuner or in my public life, I will be just as critical and will vote him out for a better candidate.

[kjaglal76]

Wow, I voted in one general election and so now I have been instantly pigeonholed into a "PNM till ah dead."

ilove3 I think you are just as guilty of the superficial stereotyping you are accusing kjaglal76 of.

Habit7, yuh could ever see yuhself voting fuh anybody else other than the PNM?

Yeah, UNC, COP, DNA I can vote for them if the put up the best candidate backed by a competent leader. I cant ever see myself voting for ILP though.

If Rowley (Alleyne's first choice) had put up Mr. Wetting as a candidate for my constituency, definitely he wont get my vote.

Fair enough. But what about the foreseeable future?

wasnt d man answer clear enough for u? u basically asking him the same question twice, ilove3 are u the PNM duncee head my honorable leader was tlkin about?

[ilove3]

Wow, I voted in one general election and so now I have been instantly pigeonholed into a "PNM till ah dead."

ilove3 I think you are just as guilty of the superficial stereotyping you are accusing kjaglal76 of.

Habit7, yuh could ever see yuhself voting fuh anybody else other than the PNM?

Yeah, UNC, COP, DNA I can vote for them if the put up the best candidate backed by a competent leader. I cant ever see myself voting for ILP though.

If Rowley (Alleyne's first choice) had put up Mr. Wetting as a candidate for my constituency, definitely he wont get my vote.

Fair enough. But what about the foreseeable future?

wasnt d man answer clear enough for u? u basically asking him the same question twice, ilove3 are u the PNM duncee head my honorable leader was tlkin about?

Very much so... You apparently are not. Everyone trinbagonian here, including our PM was educated by the PNM. But clearly you were not. So STFU and let EDUCATED people like rfari, Habit7, Zoom Rader and even Pioneer share their points of view without people like you trying to poison the country.

[Habit7]

So STFU and let EDUCATED people like .... and even Pioneer