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End of ICE (Internal Combustion Engines)

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Re: End of ICE (Internal Combustion Engines)

Postby PariaMan » September 27th, 2018, 9:32 pm

randolphinshan wrote:Meh Porsche 911 or nothing for me. Gotta keep saving
Not even a tesla 3 for say 300000 tt

500km range and 0 to 60 in 5.5 seconds and loaded with features

To each his own

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Re: End of ICE (Internal Combustion Engines)

Postby PariaMan » September 27th, 2018, 9:34 pm

The tesla 3 is basically cornering the luxury car market in the US right now

BMW and the rest are very afraid

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Re: End of ICE (Internal Combustion Engines)

Postby supernedd » September 27th, 2018, 10:47 pm

what about buying a used ev car . when the battery life dies n need replacing ..pricing

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Re: End of ICE (Internal Combustion Engines)

Postby PariaMan » September 27th, 2018, 11:15 pm

supernedd wrote:what about buying a used ev car . when the battery life dies n need replacing ..pricing
10 years and more with negligible losses then again if my hilux engine goes it is 40000 for a use one

The battery is made up if many small cells usually it is just some not all that needs changing

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Re: End of ICE (Internal Combustion Engines)

Postby maj. tom » February 8th, 2019, 9:46 pm

PariaMan wrote:
supernedd wrote:what about buying a used ev car . when the battery life dies n need replacing ..pricing
10 years and more with negligible losses then again if my hilux engine goes it is 40000 for a use one

The battery is made up if many small cells usually it is just some not all that needs changing


So Toyota uses either a NiMH or Li-ion battery in their various vehicles right now. The 4 to 5 year old RORO Hybrids we're getting now in TT is NiMH. I've heard plenty people saying that it's just a cell or two that would need changing. But according to this, each cell in the battery is calibrated with each other with software, circuitry, etc., to optimize it for power and safety. Changing the entire battery for the Prius is about $2000 USD with shipping and DIY if you have the tools in the video. Battery comes from an authorized service that offers a warranty. eg https://www.electronautomotive.com/prod ... te-battery
Dealer was offering $4000 USD for this complete service. It's a lot of work, but I think it can be done in a day with the correct tools by the average person with not much experience.






Hybrid is definitely here to stay. Full Electric Vehicles will be mainstream in 20 or 30 years. Gas stations will be replaced by battery swap stations. Drive in, swap the Universal Power Battery out with a charged one at the "gas" station, pay for the electric charge of the battery. Probably will have an upfront fee for a battery pack like how we currently buy Ramco gas tanks. It will probably be as simple as unscrewing a module and screwing back in another in a consumer accessible compartment.

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Re: End of ICE (Internal Combustion Engines)

Postby ruffneck_12 » February 8th, 2019, 11:07 pm

Thought this was about the ICE forum

which is also dead

welp

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Re: End of ICE (Internal Combustion Engines)

Postby adnj » February 9th, 2019, 8:21 am

maj. tom wrote:So Toyota uses either a NiMH or Li-ion battery in their various vehicles right now. The 4 to 5 year old RORO Hybrids we're getting now in TT is NiMH. I've heard plenty people saying that it's just a cell or two that would need changing. But according to this, each cell in the battery is calibrated with each other with software, circuitry, etc., to optimize it for power and safety.


NiMH and NiCad typically do not have as elaborate a charging balance circuit as LiIon chemistries nor do they suffer from catastrophic failure.
Last edited by adnj on January 28th, 2021, 2:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: End of ICE (Internal Combustion Engines)

Postby syringe78 » January 28th, 2021, 2:25 pm

Any recommendations for someone who services and repairs hybrids? eg. BMW e drive

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Re: End of ICE (Internal Combustion Engines)

Postby adnj » January 28th, 2021, 2:43 pm

General Motors plans to exclusively offer electric vehicles by 2035

DETROIT — General Motors wants to end production of all diesel- and gasoline-powered cars, trucks and SUVs by 2035 and shift its entire new fleet to electric vehicles as part of a broader plan to become carbon neutral by 2040, the company said Thursday.

The company plans to use 100% renewable energy to power its U.S. facilities by 2030 and global facilities by 2035 — five years ahead of a previously announced goal.

GM’s announcement comes a day after President Joe Biden signed a series of executive orders that prioritize climate change across all levels of government and put the U.S. on track to curb planet-warming carbon emissions.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/28/general ... -2035.html

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Re: End of ICE (Internal Combustion Engines)

Postby redmanjp » January 28th, 2021, 2:50 pm

no more vroom vroom

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Re: End of ICE (Internal Combustion Engines)

Postby bluefete » February 3rd, 2021, 8:45 am

Gasoline is becoming worthless

Rick Newman·Senior Columnist
Updated Tue, February 2, 2021, 5:06 PM

You still have to pay a couple bucks for a gallon of gas (more in California, as always), but automakers are discovering that gas-powered cars may be a liability that detracts from their valuations, instead of an asset that enhances values.

New research from Morgan Stanley argues that traditional internal combustion engines—the mainstay of automobiles for more than a century—are destined to become money-losers as early as 2030. “We believe the market may be ascribing zero (or even negative?) value for ICE-derived revenues at GM and Ford,” auto analyst Adam Jonas wrote in a Jan. 29 analysis. He lists a variety of factors likely to “transform what were once profit-generating assets into potentially loss-making and cash-burning businesses.”

In late January, General Motors (GM) said it plans to stop selling vehicles with tailpipe emissions by 2035. That means GM won’t sell any gas- or diesel-powered vehicles, the types of cars that now account for nearly all GM sales and profit. That would require an all-electric fleet, powered off the electrical grid, as with most current electrics, or perhaps through on-board fuel cells powered by hydrogen. While most automakers are developing electric vehicles, GM is the first big one to commit to a full transition.

Ford (F) hasn’t gone as far as GM, but it, too, plans an aggressive rollout of EVs to complement and replace current models. Most other automakers are doing the same. Dozens of EVs will flood the market in coming years, including a Ford F-150 pickup, the Ford Mustang Mach-E, the GMC Hummer and the Cadillac Lyriq.


Shares of GM and Ford have surged recently, as investors seem to believe each old-line automaker is progressing toward EVs in earnest. GM shares are up 51% during the last three months, with Ford up 41%. Neither can touch Tesla (TSLA), up 126% during the last three months and a stunning 575% during the last year. But investors are now giving Detroit’s Big Two more credit for electrification plans they’ve been skeptical about, until recently.

Marketplace support
Joe Biden’s win in the November presidential election is part of the EV equation for GM and Ford. Biden supports an aggressive transformation toward green energy, with a goal of achieving net-zero carbon emissions in the U.S. economy by 2050. Tailpipe emissions are a major source of carbon pollution, with sharp reductions necessary for meaningful progress on climate change. President Trump questioned the science on climate change and instituted policies meant to favor carbon energy, such as lowering fuel economy standards that his predecessor, President Obama, raised.

Part of Trump’s pro-carbon policy was a lawsuit meant to force California and several other states, which have gas-mileage standards higher than federal levels, to lower them to the national standard. GM joined the Trump administration’s suit against California. But GM flipped after Trump lost in November, withdrawing from the suit on Nov. 23, when it was clear the Biden administration would end the suit anyway. Since then, GM has announced a variety of electrification plans, with investors bidding the stock higher.

Marketplace support for green technology is crucial, because government policy alone will fail if it raises costs, inconveniences consumers or creates inefficiencies. The Morgan Stanley analysis suggests market forces may now drive a move from carbon-fueled vehicles to electric ones, at least as much as government policy.




On the hood of an electric car, California Gov. Gavin Newsom signs an executive order requiring all new passenger vehicles sold in the state to be zero-emission by 2035 after a press conference on Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2020, at Cal Expo in Sacramento. It's a move the governor says would achieve a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. California would be the first state with such a rule, though Germany and France are among 15 other countries that have a similar requirement. (Daniel Kim/The Sacramento Bee via AP, Pool)

Image
On the hood of an electric car, California Gov. Gavin Newsom signs an executive order requiring all new passenger vehicles sold in the state to be zero-emission by 2035 after a press conference on Sept. 23, 2020, at Cal Expo in Sacramento. (Daniel Kim/The Sacramento Bee via AP, Pool)



The investing firm recently surveyed institutional investors on the value of internal-combustion technology at GM and Ford. Seventeen percent said ICE technology had no value or negative value today. Sixty percent rated ICE technology as slightly positive, while 23% said it was a significantly positive value. That’s with electrification technology still in the early innings: total market share for fully electric vehicles is still less than 2%.

Risk in adapting too slowly
But essentially all of the growth in powertrain adoption in coming years will be electric, while ICE powertrains are certain to decline. The risk for automakers isn’t adapting too quickly and getting ahead of the market. It’s adapting too slowly and becoming overly reliant on dying technology consumers may no longer want as electrics get cheaper and range improves. That extends to factory capacity, with ICE assembly lines possibly becoming stranded assets with no market value. It would cost automakers money to disassemble or convert them to valuable use, thus the possibility of negative value.


Image
A Tesla Model S, front, and Model Y charge at a Tesla supercharging site outside Colorado Mills outlet mall late Monday, Dec. 21, 2020, in Lakewood, Colo. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

“We fall into the camp believing that ICE technology is worth near zero today, which could potentially crystalize into a net liability,” Jonas wrote.

GM has better prospects than Ford at the moment. It’s been building EVs since the Chevy Volt went on sale in 2010, and its Ultium battery technology could become an industry standard used by other automakers. It also owns 70% of Cruise, the self-driving venture experimenting with new types of transportation. Seventeen equity analysts surveyed by S&P Capital IQ have an average 12-month price target for GM of $61, about 16% above the stock’s current level.

Ford doesn’t seem to be as far along on battery and self-driving technology, which may be why it hasn’t yet fixed a date on its plans to go all-electric. Seventeen analysts surveyed by S&P Capitalist IQ have an average price target of $10.34 for Ford, slightly below the current price of $10.90.

Investors, of course, are looking further into the future than most consumers are, and guessing about changes that haven’t happened yet. Most people who buy a car during the next five years will buy a gas-powered vehicle. Electrics still have premium prices and are inconvenient for long trips, which have to be structured around charging opportunities. They’re still nowhere near as convenient as gas models that can be fueled at almost every highway exit in five minutes.


Image
General Motors Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Mary Barra speaks next to a autonomous Chevrolet Bolt electric car Thursday, Dec. 15, 2016, in Detroit. General Motors has started testing fully autonomous vehicles on public roads around its technical center in suburban Detroit. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)


But changes at the laboratory and factory level will presage changes in the showroom. With investors viewing internal-combustion powertrains as a dying technology, there’s likely to be little new investment, with research dollars flowing instead to the electrification efforts investors value. That will speed innovation and lower costs. Charging stations will proliferate and get faster, minimizing the inconvenience of electrics. At some crossover point, gas stations will start to disappear, and electric cars will start to seem like the obvious choice for just about everybody. Whenever that happens, it will be the wrong time to be hawking V-6 and V-8 engines.

Rick Newman is the author of four books, including “Rebounders: How Winners Pivot from Setback to Success.” Follow him on Twitter: @rickjnewman. You can also send confidentital tips, and click here to get Rick’s stories by email.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/gaso ... 36353.html

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Re: End of ICE (Internal Combustion Engines)

Postby Les Bain » February 3rd, 2021, 9:07 am

I dig how style is being applied to electric cars and they looking less and less like an Apple mouse. Although it's controversially being applied now in some ICE cars, I wouldn't mind having piped in engine sounds for an electric car. Feel like driving something with a CAT engine one day, a Ferrari V12 the other, and a Jalopy put-put engine the next, no problem.

I just wonder about the balance being upset once petrol is ditched and everybody plugging in to full up. Hopefully the eggheads working hard at figuring this out.

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Re: End of ICE (Internal Combustion Engines)

Postby MG Man » February 3rd, 2021, 9:16 am

for better or worse, the push toward mass EVs by 2030 is going full speed ahead
As for how green this whole thing really is, we'll see
What bothers me most (on a local scale) is while the world is rushing toward renewable / alternative energy, our 'leaders' seem bent on milking hydrocarbons as long as possible, with mot much in the way of contingency when that gravy train is (already) over

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Re: End of ICE (Internal Combustion Engines)

Postby VexXx Dogg » February 3rd, 2021, 9:23 am

MG Man wrote:for better or worse, the push toward mass EVs by 2030 is going full speed ahead
As for how green this whole thing really is, we'll see
What bothers me most (on a local scale) is while the world is rushing toward renewable / alternative energy, our 'leaders' seem bent on milking hydrocarbons as long as possible, with mot much in the way of contingency when that gravy train is (already) over


Truth

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Re: End of ICE (Internal Combustion Engines)

Postby Yofoot » February 3rd, 2021, 9:38 am

There are about 5 Tecla's here in Jamaica, plus there seems to be plans to set up charging stations in different parts of the country.
I was able to drive and made a video recently with a Tesla in Jamaica.

Shameless plug

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ie_ZZ12dLkc[/youtube]

(Somebody help me embed na?)
Last edited by Yofoot on February 3rd, 2021, 9:44 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: End of ICE (Internal Combustion Engines)

Postby bluefete » February 3rd, 2021, 9:41 am

MG Man wrote:for better or worse, the push toward mass EVs by 2030 is going full speed ahead
As for how green this whole thing really is, we'll see
What bothers me most (on a local scale) is while the world is rushing toward renewable / alternative energy, our 'leaders' seem bent on milking hydrocarbons as long as possible, with mot much in the way of contingency when that gravy train is (already) over


We do not have strategic thinkers in government!

You know that we are a reactive and not a proactive society.

T&TEC did a study a few years ago and realized the trend is towards EVs. But if the politicians have any say, this will not end well.

But it is encouraging to see charging stations being set up.

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Re: End of ICE (Internal Combustion Engines)

Postby Les Bain » February 3rd, 2021, 10:15 am

Yofoot wrote:There are about 5 Tecla's here in Jamaica, plus there seems to be plans to set up charging stations in different parts of the country.
I was able to drive and made a video recently with a Tesla in Jamaica.

Shameless plug




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Re: End of ICE (Internal Combustion Engines)

Postby adnj » February 3rd, 2021, 11:54 am

Global Oil Supply & Demand Outlook to 2035

Over the long term, we expect to see average oil prices in the USD65-75/bbl range, with supply growth primarily from OPEC, US shale, and a few offshore basins that break even below USD75/bbl. However, we also anticipate that demand growth will hit its peak in the early 2030s due to slow chemicals growth and peak transport demand driving down oil consumption. Still, to meet demand, E&P companies will need to add >40 MMb/d of new crude production, mostly from offshore and shale unsanctioned projects. Roughly 4-5% of this new production will need to come from yet-to-find resources.

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil ... k-to-2035#

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Re: End of ICE (Internal Combustion Engines)

Postby rebound » February 3rd, 2021, 12:01 pm

Allyuh backward... Trinidad moving forward with CNG..

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Re: End of ICE (Internal Combustion Engines)

Postby MG Man » February 3rd, 2021, 12:11 pm

sad that Hydrogen never really caught on

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Re: End of ICE (Internal Combustion Engines)

Postby bluefete » February 3rd, 2021, 2:48 pm

MG Man wrote:sad that Hydrogen never really caught on


Years ago, I used to say that was the next thing.

However, building the infrastructure proved to be prohibitively expensive.

Around 2017, Toyota and Shell entered into a partnership to build hydrogen fuel stations in California. But that is where it would stay. I do not see it moving beyond California because of the costs.


https://pressroom.toyota.com/shell-toyo ... structure/

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Re: End of ICE (Internal Combustion Engines)

Postby aaron17 » February 3rd, 2021, 2:58 pm

Toyota with that new solid state battery is it.

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Re: End of ICE (Internal Combustion Engines)

Postby sMASH » February 3rd, 2021, 3:20 pm

Trinidad in talks to build a hydrogen plant.
That was in papers yesterday on fb.
It's fairly easy to make Hydrogen a few ways, compared to normal fuel.

Hydrogen fuel cells is the future it just overshadowed by tesla hype.
Just like how gasoline and diesel have their place, battery and fuel cell will have their respective places.


Hydrgen is easy to refill, just like cng, which is very simple like normal liquid fuel. It would be good for longer commutes like trucking or outdoors, exploration.

Battery good fir shorter range circuits like cities or towns. More routine routes.

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Re: End of ICE (Internal Combustion Engines)

Postby bluefete » February 3rd, 2021, 3:47 pm

sMASH wrote:Trinidad in talks to build a hydrogen plant.
That was in papers yesterday on fb.
It's fairly easy to make Hydrogen a few ways, compared to normal fuel.

Hydrogen fuel cells is the future it just overshadowed by tesla hype.
Just like how gasoline and diesel have their place, battery and fuel cell will have their respective places.


Hydrgen is easy to refill, just like cng, which is very simple like normal liquid fuel. It would be good for longer commutes like trucking or outdoors, exploration.

Battery good fir shorter range circuits like cities or towns. More routine routes.


But that is specifically to be used at the Pt. Lisas estate. Not for fuelling vehicles. Most countries have moved away from looking at mass production hydrogen powered vehicles to EV's. The infrastructure is still very expensive.

This was in the news since early 2020 (FB kinda late - LOL).

https://newsday.co.tt/2020/02/13/new-ge ... eneration/

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Re: End of ICE (Internal Combustion Engines)

Postby sMASH » February 3rd, 2021, 5:31 pm

All infra structure is expensive initially.
The first real car had to buy fuel from a pharmacy/chemist shop.


It's relatively easy to modify existing process plants to extract some hydrogen.
Thats ur sources

The devices used to refuel hydrogen is practically the same as lpg/cng.

So that wheel doesn't need to reinvent.

It's just working vehicles comparable to regular vehicles, Toyota needs to push.


There are already some hobbiest fuel cells u can buy off of ebay.
They not that effective, but its a start to get the wider community showing demand.
Individuals will have to make their own h2, but once it picks up, some body will sell kits, and then bigger people will join in.




What Toyota will need to do is, set up a small town to facilitate the system, and let people see its real world potential.


Industrial production of hydrogen skips the back half of the plant, so already can fairly cheaper to produce.
But u will only make that investment, once it has a demand. Toyota has to create the demand.

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Re: End of ICE (Internal Combustion Engines)

Postby bluefete » February 3rd, 2021, 6:40 pm

If only it was so simple.

https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/hydro ... ner-future

The Hydrogen Fuel Cell Car: A Bumpy Ride to a Cleaner Future
One driver’s three-year experiment with an imperfect but promising technology


Image

BY SCOTT LERNER | DEC 13 2020
It’s a hundred degrees in Hollywood on the first Saturday of October.

With 11 miles left on our tank and a 35-mile trip ahead of us to get back home, my wife and I pull our Toyota Mirai hydrogen fuel cell car into a busy ARCO at the corner of Hollywood Boulevard and Wilton Place.

Beyond the gas pumps, on a sliver of asphalt abutting an alleyway, we find what we’re looking for: a True Zero hydrogen station, with its distinctive blue-and-white awning arcing into the hot sky.

Two cars are ahead of us, one parked atop a painted blue rectangle that reads “True Zero Fueling Only.” There’s only one pump at this station, so we must wait in line to refuel. But that’s fine. We are used to waiting.

After a few minutes of no movement, I notice that the lead car has not yet begun to fuel. In fact, the nozzle isn’t even attached to the vehicle. We shift in our seats, rubbernecking to see what the holdup is. I check the station’s status on h2-ca.com—a site developed by fuel cell driver Doug Dumitru to monitor “not only stations that have fuel but whether they are likely to still have fuel when you get there.” H2-ca.com reveals that in the 30 minutes it took us to drive from Claremont, a Los Angeles suburb, to Hollywood, the station has for some unnoted reason gone from online, with enough fuel to fill the tanks of at least 25 cars, to offline.

“Did you check before we left the house?” my wife asks.

The answer is yes, almost obsessively. I’ve navigated to h2-ca.com so frequently over the past three years that my phone recognizes it as one of my most-viewed sites. It’s now an official Siri suggestion, alongside Google, The New York Times, and a reminder to text my mom.

I see a technician working on the backside of the pump, which gives us hope. Then the lead car departs without having refilled—an ominous sign—and I wonder if this will be the one time, in 34 months of driving one of the nearly 9,000 hydrogen fuel cell cars on California roads, that I finally run out of fuel.

*

I was so excited after I leased my Mirai … that I started a blog to chronicle my participation in California’s hydrogen vehicle experiment. I made the car an Instagram account, as if it could be photographed … like a dog.

I was a teenager in 2003, when President Bush called for investment into zero-emission “hydrogen-powered automobiles.” The following year, Governor Schwarzenegger kicked the ball downfield by proposing a Hydrogen Highway for California. His plan called for lining the state’s existing, well-traveled routes with hydrogen refueling stations. Cars driving those highways would look and perform just like normal cars—only five minutes at the pump would afford the driver 300 miles of range. But these cars would run on hydrogen, a fuel touted for its abundance atmospherically—and commercially—and for the fact that tailpipe emissions amount to a trickle of water.

The technology fascinated me. Though I’d developed a passion for classic American muscle cars growing up, the coming climate crises figured heavily into my consciousness. 2003 was the year the Cedar Fire claimed dozens of victims as they were attempting to escape in their cars. An Inconvenient Truth reverberated in our household, prompting spirited dinnertime discussions. Protestors at my high school chanted “No War for Oil” as the US prepared to invade Baghdad. In 2005, Hurricane Katrina and its horrific aftermath foretold a perilous future.

Hydrogen, alternatively, promised cleaner air in our cities and would cut the tether to oil, reducing CO2 emissions. Particularly in Southern California, hydrogen offered an environmentally friendly way to navigate the infamous urban sprawl that necessitates a car to get around with any sort of reliability.

By 2018, I’d forgotten all about hydrogen fuel cell cars. I drove a hybrid and drafted lengthy, impassioned emails to my landlord, attempting to persuade him to upgrade our property’s breaker to support the installation of a 240-volt electric car charger. Then I saw a Mirai on the highway. I assumed it must be an experimental vehicle out for a real-world test, but no: An internet search revealed that California’s Hydrogen Highway was beginning to take shape around me, in Orange County, and in the urban centers of the state.

Nearly 40 stations were a part of an emergent network—the largest of its kind in the world. I consulted the California Fuel Cell Partnership’s map of stations and discovered that I’d pass four on my way to work at UC Irvine, where I teach a writing class that focuses on climate advocacy. It thrilled me to learn that even without access to a 240-volt charger, I could still drive a zero-emissions vehicle. I wanted in.

I was so excited after I leased my Mirai—replete with HOV access stickers, a $5,000 state government rebate, and a $15,000 prepaid card to cover the cost of fuel for three years—that I started a blog to chronicle my participation in California’s hydrogen vehicle experiment. I made the car an Instagram account, as if it could be photographed at the slopes or beach or park, like a dog. Over the course of three years, I planned to visit as many stations as possible.

Under the hood, Car and Driver explains, the “Mirai is powered by what’s called a fuel-cell electric powertrain, meaning that hydrogen (which could actually come from cow manure, among other sources) is converted into electricity by the on-board fuel cell—essentially a chemical laboratory on wheels.” Hydrogen is stored in two bulletproof tanks beneath the carriage of the car. (Video that proves the tanks are in fact bulletproof posted to blog? Check.) Advocates hope that this same reaction will one day provide reliable power to much larger endeavors, such as semi-trucks, barges, trains, planes, and even cities.

Image
THIS DIAGRAM FROM THE TOYOTA MIRAI TECHNOLOGY BROCHURE EXPLAINS HOW THE FUEL CELL SYSTEM WORKS. | COURTESY OF TOYOTA

Mirai means "future" in Japanese, and indeed this is the first car of its kind to be brought to the general market. For the driver—a “trailblazer,” to use Toyota’s marketing term—the car itself feels less futuristic and more like a very nice sedan produced by a company with a reputation for producing very nice cars. Trailblazing implies that uncharted territory lies ahead and that someone is charting it. For me, this initially appeared to involve contending with a limited number of stations—that is, not a station at every freeway exit or just around the corner from my house. However, I began learning about the truly experimental nature of the endeavor the first time I attempted to refuel the car.

It was eight at night. I’d checked the Station Operational Status System (SOSS) website before heading to the UCI station after work and then checked the station status again as I stood in front of a pump that read “see attendant.” Only I was in a parking lot on the outskirts of UC Irvine’s campus. This was not a gas station, and there certainly were no attendants nearby. Out of curiosity, I swiped my Mirai fuel card. Nothing happened. Then I called Air Products, the company that operates the station. A nice person on the other end of the line confirmed that the pump was, in fact, offline, and had been so for some time. No one had reported it to them, and so they hadn’t reported it to the SOSS—the only way the news could have reached me.

When similar incidents happened with greater frequency, and eventually with regularity, I wondered if I’d entrenched myself in something far thornier than I’d realized.

Shane Stephens, founder and CDO of True Zero, acknowledges that there have been substantial infrastructural “growing pains.” The primary issue seems to be streamlining the mechanisms of producing and delivering fuel to stations. More than half of the state’s stations are operated by True Zero’s parent company, First Element, which does not produce or distribute fuel. For most of my time as a driver, that task has fallen to Air Products, a publicly traded company that “provides atmospheric gases, process and specialty gases, equipment, and services worldwide.” (Its support staff is always pleasant and informative, I should add.) Other station operators include Air Products, Air Liquide, Iwatani, and Shell.

“The number one cause of downtime,” Stephens told me when I called him last February, was that “stations were running out [of fuel] on a regular basis.”

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A SCREEN CAPTURE OF THE DIAMOND BAR STATION, WHICH SHOWS THAT IT IS EXPERIENCING A TECHNICAL ISSUE.

As of this writing, there are 42 hydrogen fueling stations in California. Most are located in L.A., Orange County, and the Bay Area. At any moment on any given day, roughly 25 to 50 percent of stations are offline. (The week of October 19 saw 78 percent “statewide availability” according to h2-ca.com.)

But there have also been other issues, each adding some disruption to my life and the lives of other drivers. Some 3,500 in the Bay Area were severely impacted during an incident in June 2019, when a fire at an Air Products facility disrupted the hydrogen supply for months. The event became known, in the Mirai Owners Facebook group, as the Hydropocalypse.

Often there are long lines at popular stations, most of which operate, like the one in Hollywood, with one pump, serving one customer at a time. Waiting for three or four people to fill ahead of you can extend what Toyota promises to be a three- or four-minute fill time to half an hour or more. Then there are the nozzle freezes, which can take a minute or 10 to defrost.

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NOZZLES CAN FREEZE DURING REFUELING, THOUGH NEW NOZZLES NOW IN USE AIM TO REDUCE OR ELIMINATE THE PROBLEM.

Compressors have to keep the hydrogen at sub-freezing temperatures. On hot days a station not designed to keep up with current demand can require a two- or three- or five-minute compressor reboot between fills. During my first year driving the car, station status updates did not register this downtime as temporary. Unless you monitored a station over the course of at least 15 minutes—the time between updates to the site—you could easily mistake a “temporarily down” station for an empty or malfunctioning one. This happened often to me. I’d be driving to a station that appeared online, only to arrive and find it offline. Before understanding this problem, I’d drive off, frustrated by the wasted trip and the wasted fuel.

*

At the Hollywood station, we’re still second in line. The technician has disappeared into a building behind the pump. The driver of the Mirai ahead of us steps out and shields the pump’s screen with his hand. He then turns to us and shrugs, hands expressing what’s hidden behind the surgical mask.

“So I guess the station’s down?” my wife asks, sardonically.

I apologize before turning off the car to preserve what little fuel we have left. The heat is oppressive, especially when wearing a three-ply cotton mask. We open the doors and grow increasingly irritated—and worried.

“We might really need a tow,” I say, imagining all the ways being towed is going to be an enormous and potentially dangerous endeavor in the time of COVID.

(I know what you’re thinking: Why did you let your tank get so low? Amateur move! Well, the station nearest to my house, Diamond Bar (15 miles distant), was offline that morning due to a mechanical issue. Another station that was closer is now permanently closed. According to Keith Malone, who runs communications for the CAFCP, that station was operated by “thoughtfully funded small business owners” who struggled with maintenance and upkeep.)

I step out of my car to find some shade and chat with the driver ahead of us. He reports that he’s “on zero.” He wouldn’t even make it to the Fairfax station four miles southwest. I tell him I’m thinking about heading there.

“Allegedly they have plenty of fuel,” I say, “but if I make the trip and can’t refuel, I’m four miles farther from my house and equally stranded.”

He nods. He knows.

We continue to chat at a distance. Sure, his plans have been delayed. But this young guy appears inured to and at peace with the inconvenience. Like us, he has no choice but to wait.

*

There’s no denying that what’s happening here will inform all future hydrogen expansion throughout the world.
It’s important to note that the Hollywood station is part of the old guard: a spate of “stations not set up for market growth,” according to Stephens. A new station in Fountain Valley, where four cars can refuel simultaneously, is a rather encouraging example of what the near future holds. Because of increased storage capacity, the station can comfortably provide fuel for 400 cars per day. This is a tremendous leap forward. A new nozzle in use there should reduce freezing events. I’ve tried it, and it is a marked improvement. It’s also a beautiful station where hydrogen pumps take up almost as much real estate as those dispensing gasoline. The station relies on liquid hydrogen, which is stored onsite and requires fewer deliveries per week. And, to avoid future hydropocalypses, “every new station has to have a second backup source of hydrogen,” according to Malone.

“We’ll be in good shape in 12 to 18 months,” Stephens assured me back in February. His company is “aggressively deploying the learning of those growing pains.”

Toyota plans to release the second-generation Mirai soon. Honda is likewise taking big steps towards hydrogen, as are other major players like Shell (think of that what you will). Infrastructure is expanding in Germany, England, Japan, South Korea, and Hawaii. Saudi Arabia is looking toward a hydrogen “new future.” State policy here in California outlines plans to fund 100, 200, and even 1,000 stations capable of serving 1 million vehicles. These policies envision a viable path for hydrogen alongside electric vehicles, each serving different drivers in different circumstances—especially those without access to electric chargers or who can’t wait for long charging times. Stephens reports that by 2030 the market will be able to “sunset all government support.” California is the leader in deploying and testing this technology right now. There’s no denying that what’s happening here will inform all future hydrogen expansion throughout the world. Already, the Orange County Transit Authority is debuting a hydrogen bus fleet pilot program.

But older stations are still the backbone of today’s network. Some have notable reliability, staying online almost 100 percent of the time during any given week. Others hover around 50 or 60 percent uptime. It’s sobering to learn that new stations can take 18 months to construct if, as Malone told me, “everything goes as planned.” Each can cost well over a million dollars. This is to say that change comes slow to the hydrogen highway, and with a hefty price tag.

*

Twenty minutes later, with a line of cars snaking into the street, the onsite technician joins us near the pump and explains the problem. On a hot day, the compressor could not stay cool. He had been adding coolant, hoping to help it along.

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MY MIRAI, SECOND IN LINE. THE TRUE ZERO TECHNICIAN TALKS TO A DRIVER AND EXPLAINS THE ISSUE THE STATION IS EXPERIENCING.

“Do you think we’ll be able to fill up?” I ask.

“I won’t leave until everyone has refueled,” he says, gesturing toward the five cars that had formed a line snaking dangerously into the street. “I’ll be here until I can get you all on your way.” He wears an overshirt in the heat and talks about working overtime because there are essential workers, doctors, and nurses who rely on their cars to get to the hospital and save lives. Right. I thought, they rely on transportation just as we rely on them. They have no time for faulty compressors, frozen nozzles, or late deliveries of hydrogen. I am reminded of the days when I wasn’t working from home, when hunting for fuel or futzing with a frozen nozzle was near the bottom of my list of enjoyable after-work activities.

For the car ahead of us, the pump works slowly but eventually provides three kilograms, which is about a three-quarter fill. Then it’s our turn. The technician stands beside the pump as I swipe my card and connect the nozzle. A fill begins but then stops abruptly: 0.2 kilograms. We try it again and the same thing happens.

“Hold on one second,” the technician says, as he kneels behind the pump and tinkers. Then, “try it again.”

We watch as the gauge climbs past a half, then one, then two kilograms. Four minutes later, our tank is full. We thank the technician and drive away, 250 miles distant from our next refueling trip.

*

As much as this experiment is fraught with disruption today, we can be certain that future disruptions wrought by a changing climate will be far more severe.
Like all systems in beta, there are bound to be glitches with the hydrogen fuel cell car experiment. Some present tolerable inconveniences, and some disrupt the normal order of life to such an extent that some regret being an early adopter. One driver I spoke to on the phone, who lives in Morgan Hill, California, and works in a first-level trauma unit, described her experience with hydrogen-induced transportation insecurity as “emotional turmoil.”

Other drivers I’ve talked to seem unfazed and remain committed to the cause. “Electric cars have their own series of headaches,” Malone noted when we spoke. Such an attitude softens the frustration of a post-work fuel hunt, assuming your kids aren’t stranded on the playground because you’re in line for fuel.

For my family, the unpredictability of fuel availability has prompted us to drive my wife’s Subaru Forester on weekends or on short trips around town. We lament this dependence on oil’s hegemony. Occasionally I cancel trips or factor an extra hour into my commutes. I’ve started to be highly conscious of every mile I drive, regarding fuel as scarce. While scarcity is not the promise of hydrogen, it’s a fundamental truth of a future reliant on fossil fuels. As much as this experiment is fraught with disruption today, we can be certain that future disruptions wrought by a changing climate will be far more severe. What are we willing to tolerate by our own choice? Do we want to tolerate inconveniences now, before we are forced to endure future disruptions certain to be far worse? The truth is that none of us have the time to wait for some magical, faultless technology to emerge and solve our transportation-driven climate crisis.

I remind myself of hydrogen’s promises when the lines are long, when my car payment seems criminally high, and when the driver in front of me struggles to work the not-yet-perfected nozzle. Perhaps I need to remind myself a little more frequently.

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sMASH
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Re: End of ICE (Internal Combustion Engines)

Postby sMASH » February 3rd, 2021, 7:07 pm

from what i heard, that sounds like how cng was initially, in trinidad. i fell in quite recently and its not like that any more. but u still have some places without cng. yet still, people in those areas have cng, they just refill before they go back home.

u cant have one pump, thats just retardedness. they mismanaging the system and it will force it to collapse.

the article does say, other places developing h2 systems, so prolly they can do better at normalizing it.

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Re: End of ICE (Internal Combustion Engines)

Postby bluefete » February 4th, 2021, 10:05 pm

This is what I was looking for. It still comes down to a (currently) very expensive infrastructure for hydrogen fuels.

Are hydrogen fuel cell vehicles the future of autos?
California is the only state that currently sells FCEVs.

ByMorgan Korn
12 December 2020

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The all-new 2021 Toyota Mirai gets up to 402 miles of range.

What if your electric vehicle could be refueled in less than 5 minutes? No plug, no outlet required. The range anxiety that's stymied sales of EVs? Forget about it.

Three EVs can meet these demands and allay concerns about owning an emissions-free vehicle.

There's just one drawback. You can only find them in California.

Welcome to the world of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). A tiny market that includes Toyota's Mirai, Hyundai's Nexo and Honda Motor's Clarity Fuel Cell, these "plug-less" EVs are the alternative to their battery electric cousins. Drivers can refuel FCEVs at a traditional gasoline station in less than 5 minutes. The 2021 Mirai gets an EPA estimated 402 miles of range on the XLE trim with the Nexo close behind at 380 miles. Neither cold weather nor heated seats deplete the range, another added bonus.

"Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are superior driving machines compared to traditional vehicles," Jackie Birdsall, senior engineer on Toyota's fuel cell team, told ABC News.

Toyota sees tremendous upside in fuel cell technology, which it has been perfecting for 25 years. More than 6,500 Mirais have been sold or leased in California since its launch in 2015. The second generation Mirai, on sale next month in San Francisco and Los Angeles, can store more hydrogen than its predecessor, giving the sleek sedan a 30% increase in range.

"When people hear electric they only think battery electric," Birdsall said. "The BEV [battery electric vehicle] market is pretty saturated. If we want to have sustainability and longevity we need to be diverse."

'A lot of progress'

FCEVs work like this: Electricity is generated from an onboard supply of hydrogen. That electricity powers the electric motor. When hydrogen gas is converted into electricity, water and heat are released. An FCEV stores the hydrogen in high-pressure tanks (the Mirai, for example, has three). Non-toxic, compressed hydrogen gas flows into the tank when refueling.

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Toyota Motor
FCEVs, like the Mirai, can produce their own electricity from the on-board supply of hydrogen

"If we can build the stations, we can sell the cars," Keith Malone of the California Fuel Cell Partnership, an industry-government collaboration founded in 1999 to expand the domestic FCEV market, told ABC News. "These vehicles have met all the same safety standards globally. The tanks have undergone armor piercing bullet tests. There are no dangers."

Malone, a longtime advocate of hydrogen-powered vehicles, did concede that the nascent industry has more hurdles to clear before it's widely accepted.

"We are an early market and these cars are not cheap for lease or sale," he said. "Most stations are concentrated in urban areas in California. But we've seen a lot of progress. The real challenge is rolling out the fueling network. But the vehicles are here. They're good, people love them."

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Hyundai
NEXO is the technological flagship of Hyundai's growing eco-vehicle portfolio.

.R. DeShazo, director of the Luskin Center for Innovation at UCLA, remembers when Arnold Schwarzenegger, the former governor, vowed to revamp California's highways as "Hydrogen Highways" in 2004. The infrastructure to support hydrogen fuel for transportation never materialized. DeShazo doubts it ever will.

"If there were stations everywhere, hydrogen would be an obvious solution," he told ABC News. "Refueling stations are really expensive and require significant economies of scale to be cost effective and compete with gasoline and electricity."

Betting on batteries

There are currently 42 hydrogen fueling stations in California though not all are online. The average price of hydrogen is $16 a kilogram versus $3.18 for a gallon of gasoline in the state. At least 8,890 FCEVs are on the road today, a far cry from the 53,000 the California Fuel Cell Partnership projected by the end of 2017.

"I don't see a lot of automaker interest in hydrogen," DeShazo argued. "Most automakers are betting on battery electric vehicles for the passenger market and delivery trucks."

John Voelcker, the former editor of Green Car Reports who now covers electric cars and energy policy as a reporter and analyst, may be one of the industry's most outspoken detractors. In a recent article for The Drive, he laid out the case for why FCEVs have not delivered on their many promises.

"Despite more than half a century of development, starting in 1966 with GM's Electrovan, hydrogen fuel-cell cars remain low in volume, expensive to produce, and restricted to sales in the few countries or regions that have built hydrogen fueling stations," he wrote.

When asked if hydrogen was the future of the automotive industry, Voelcker was unequivocal: "Absolutely not," he told ABC News.

"If China suddenly decided its auto industry will adopt hydrogen vehicles, things might change," he went on. "I am not a believer of FCEVs. It costs tens of billions of dollars to set up a hydrogen fueling network that has industrial strength compression equipment" to fuel these vehicles, he said.

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Toyota Motor
Inside the hood of the 2021 Toyota Mirai fuel cell electric vehicle.

Both Voelcker and DeShazo pointed out that the production of hydrogen -- if not made from renewable energy such as natural gas or solar -- causes greenhouse emissions.

"If the goal is reducing climate change gas per mile driven, electricity is simply better at doing that," Voelcker said. "More CO2 is associated with hydrogen cars."

MORE: Hummer electric pickup truck unveiled: What you need to know
Mixed outlook for automakers

Not all automakers are convinced that hydrogen can help them meet their emissions targets. Audi will stop development of its hydrogen-powered vehicles, including its flashy h-tron concept that was expected to hit the market in 2025, according to German newspaper Die Zeit.

"We will not be able to produce sufficient quantities of the hydrogen required for propulsion in the next few decades in a CO2-neutral manner. I therefore do not believe in hydrogen for use in cars," Markus Duesmann, Audi's CEO, said in an interview.

Volkswagen has also decided against the technology, with Herbert Dies, the company's chief, telling industry insiders in July: "It doesn't make a lot of sense at this point to think about bringing hydrogen into passenger cars."

Unlike its German counterparts, BMW has not ruled out hydrogen. The Bavarian automaker said in a tweet that it would produce an X5 SUV with its second generation hydrogen fuel cell powertrain by 2022. General Motors, along with partner Honda, said it remains "committed to fuel cells as a complement to battery-electric propulsion" and the manufacture of fuel cells will take place at the company's facility in Brownstown, Michigan. GM will also supply its Hydrotech fuel cell systems to electric start-up Nikola's heavy duty semi-trucks.

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Honda Motor
The 2021 Honda Clarity Fuel Cell has an EPA range rating of 360 miles on a full tank of hydrogen

Whether hydrogen can succeed depends on how willing the stakeholders -- automakers, station developers and local governments -- are willing to invest in the technology. Honda has only sold 1,617 Clarity Fuel Cell vehicles in nearly four years and the company is "pursuing multiple ZEV (Zero Emission Vehicle) pathways" in an effort to reduce CO2 emissions, a spokesperson said. Toyota is actively working with elected officials, NGOs, utilities and energy companies to increase the access to hydrogen. A number of refueling stations have been built or are almost complete in the Northeast with Colorado, Oregon, Washington state and Texas eyed as the next growth areas.

Toyota engineer Birdsall said 2021 Mirai owners will receive $15,000 in free hydrogen, or enough money to cover the first 67,000 miles. It costs about $90 to fill up the car's 5.6 kilogram tank. These giveaways could help change consumers' minds -- at least in California -- to try an FCEV. Hydrogen's limitations, however, may be too much for any automaker to overcome in the long term.

"We don't want to put all our eggs in one basket," Birdsall noted. "Both BEVs and hydrogen fuel cells are the future."

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/hydroge ... d=74583475

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88sins
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Re: End of ICE (Internal Combustion Engines)

Postby 88sins » February 6th, 2021, 9:35 am

Anyone locally ever tried to convert a car from the typical gasoline engine to electric motor?

I halfway done with one project, looking for the next one.
If I can find a suitable electric motor (I already have something very specific in mind) and of course a sufficient means of powering it I don't mind giving it a shot.

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Re: End of ICE (Internal Combustion Engines)

Postby adnj » February 6th, 2021, 8:32 pm

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