FCB IPO

[pugboy]

doesn't the stock exchange list the outstanding bid offers of what people willing to buy at and what people willing to sell at ?
if so we should see the higher price that sellers offering at

[Redman]

Ray,it's called painting the tape.

The question is whether the trading activity reflects the reality of the market.

The few ipos I've been involved with were managed and structured to pop in the first days.
This is no different.
It's an open secret.
I'm sure the TTSEC has no mechanism or desire to investigate this one.

[snatman]

when this approaches $35, SELL!!!
unsustainable valuations over $35

this type of manipulation is nothing new, its easy to do when a share is hot and supplies limited.

FCB up $3.79 today to close at 29.09. While I’m happy as an investor to have gotten a 30% return over 2 days, I'm wondering if this is a case of market manipulation. Is the brokerage arm of FCB is executing these trades at minimal amounts of shares to hike up the price?

[snatman]

I believe the two debt exhanges are already priced into the share price. When the ccmb amalgamation is properly streamlined, and the banking license formalised, i believe JMMB can zoom up

Snatman,
I wouldn’t recommend investing in Jamaican financial companies at present. IMF keeps pressuring the govt to reduce the interest its paying on government bonds. They’ve had 2 debt exchanges already where the govt reduced the coupon rate on its outstanding bonds, most of which are held by Jamaican financial companies and pension plans. This results in a markdown on the market value of the bonds which the bondholders have to absorb as a loss on their books.
Most analysts don’t expect a recovery any time soon (unemployment is at or close to an all time high), so I expect there’s a lot more pain to come, particularly for the finance industry.

[zoom rader]

FCB is waiting on their end of year financial report which is early next year. After that expect shares to clock around $45-50 .

[snatman]

up by the maximum 15% for the third day running, and now approaching overvaluation.

I would sell @ $35, which is around its proper valuation.

unless you plan to hold for a few years, don't get caught up in the *irrational exuberance... take your gains and run.

[snatman]

Using local stock market valuations, a fair price for fcb is between $32-37. I don't think its sustainable over that range.

Why would you sell? Do you expect the value to drop?

[zoom rader]

Using local stock market valuations, a fair price for fcb is between $32-37. I don't think its sustainable over that range.

Why would you sell? Do you expect the value to drop?

Wait till next year for the financial report the it will climb a bit further

[snatman]

The IPO documentatation included estimated year end financials, ($2.35 earning per share) so that's already in the public domain. If the price is ~$40 when the financials are released, and the EPS is as estimated, the share price will drop.

Using local stock market valuations, a fair price for fcb is between $32-37. I don't think its sustainable over that range.

Why would you sell? Do you expect the value to drop?

Wait till next year for the financial report the it will climb a bit further

[ray d saint]

Its all in the cycle... there is no 'market muniplation'



that is the market at close today. 23,952 shares traded @ 33.45

wanna bet it trades @ 38.46 tomorrow.... lol

[redmanjp]

so what's the minimum amt u have to invest to start?

[ray d saint]

^^^ That varies with brokerage houses.

[White CZ4A]

I bid and got 20% of what I wanted.
Was very oversubscribed.

[pugboy]

well it is indeed turning out to have been a good speculative buy on initial IPO
the limit of shares available certainly helped that and making more demand now.

[Redman]

Its all in the cycle... there is no 'market muniplation'



that is the market at close today. 23,952 shares traded @ 33.45

wanna bet it trades @ 38.46 tomorrow.... lol

So the question should be -was the IPO underpriced?

If you have heavy oversubscription, and big run up on light volume-does that say that the IPO was under priced?

And if so does this now raise the question -WHO is really supposed to benefit from the IPO???

Just for the record I dont own any,didnt apply for any and would not have regardless of the pricing.

[zoom rader]

^^^ it's good to see tuners investing money and understanding the local stock market.
More state own companies will soon go on the market, so keep cash in hand to buy.

[snatman]

the rare local IPOs are usually deliberately underpriced, so as to encourage full subscriptions... who benefits? whoever was smart enough to grab some shares.. along with mutual fund investors.

Its all in the cycle... there is no 'market muniplation'



that is the market at close today. 23,952 shares traded @ 33.45

wanna bet it trades @ 38.46 tomorrow.... lol

So the question should be -was the IPO underpriced?

If you have heavy oversubscription, and big run up on light volume-does that say that the IPO was under priced?

And if so does this now raise the question -WHO is really supposed to benefit from the IPO???

Just for the record I dont own any,didnt apply for any and would not have regardless of the pricing.

[Redman]

Here is the thing uh..snatman

The purpose of the IPO is to raise cheap funds for the company in this case FCB.
the fact that you have the stock traded up 50% means that FCB could have gotten more money from the offering.

If I was a non govt co and this happens I would sue the IPO manager and the underwriter.
Cuz this tells me I could have gotten more from the IPO .
And we talking here 50% more cash.

[pugboy]

utc and them places that got their big lots must be very happy now

[snatman]

But armmmm redman

If the ipo was set at a higher price, there woulda been less demand.

If it was set at $34 nobody woulda want it, it woulda been undersubscribed, you ent think so?

[pugboy]

it woulda still be oversubscribed for a number of reasons apart from valuations
$34 is still small money for a lot of people to spend and they still would not consider that high value risk

[Redman]

But armmmm redman

If the ipo was set at a higher price, there woulda been less demand.

If it was set at $34 nobody woulda want it, it woulda been undersubscribed, you ent think so?

I eh know.
With the way things are.. I would say that the market could have with stood 27-30 and still popped to 35.
In this environment the lack of investment alternatives mean that within reason anything would be oversubscribed.
The underwriters are supposed to find an equilibrium where demand and supply meet-and maybe discount it to there is upside.

The stock you got was bought from an entity that received 22 per share from you.
2 days later and the stock is up 50% -you benefit.
At the expense of those that sold you the stock-company insiders/the company.

Since this is a Govt entity that was brought public by its own subsidiary then nobody cares.
As we evolve it will be an issue when x company uses y brokerage to go public to raise funds.
Which is the normal reason for an IPO.

[ray d saint]

ohhh look how the market has changed....

it did trade as high as 38.47

[ray d saint]

traded thus far 579,203 shares a total value of $ 21,772,101.76

[snatman]

Just as i predicted,

sell @ ~35

[Redman]

50% isnt a bad days work.
Take it and run

[zoom rader]

damm, money in the bank !

[snatman]

you changed your mind re- waiting til next year?

:D damm, money in the bank !

[zoom rader]

^^^ Gonna offload some now and wait till next yr

[AllTrac]

i still waiting on my statement from stock exchange from the first set of fcb ipo shares.

Im wondering if to buy now