Trump Down AgainTrump’s odds took a big hit overnight during a week in which they had been mostly stable since Monday. He dropped to a +170 underdog Thursday morning, down from +150. Biden’s odds improved again and he’s now back near his all-time high at the betting shops as a -200 favorite, up from -177 Wednesday.
Trump now trails Biden by nine points nationally, according to a series of polls released Wednesday, and still needs to gain ground in numerous swing states.
If you take all the states in which Biden currently leads by five points or more, it adds up to more than 270 electoral votes. If you take all the states in which he leads by any margin, it adds up to more than 350 electoral votes.
Swing state betting odds tell a similar story. Biden is threatening to flip a number of states that Trump won in 2016, all of which were crucial to his upset victory. Biden is a -139 favorite in Arizona, -278 favorite in Michigan, -121 favorite in North Carolina, -250 favorite in Pennsylvania and -240 favorite in Wisconsin.
Trump just regained a narrow lead as a -121 favorite in Florida, a state he won by less than one point in 2016.
Wednesday’s Fox News poll is very much in sync with the betting odds, showing Trump trailing by 12 points in Michigan, five points in Pennsylvania and five points in Wisconsin. It also showed Trump hanging on as the favorite in Ohio, where he now holds a three-point lead after winning the state by eight points in 2016.
Trump lashed out at Fox News Thursday morning in response to said polls.
The concern for Trump & Co. here is that they don’t need just one or two polls to be wrong. They don’t just need to flip the betting odds in a mere one or two states. They need to make up a national deficit hovering around double digits in almost every respected poll. And they need to pull off upsets in a number of states that currently show Biden in the lead.
Even if Trump wins every state in which he’s currently up big, and you give him North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania, Texas, Georgia and Iowa, it only adds up to 268 electoral votes. A candidate needs 270 to win. Biden can lose all those states and still take the election by winning Michigan, Minnesota, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada.
Those are the facts with the election just 12 days away, as Trump enters Thursday’s debate in desperate need of picking up more votes in the aforementioned states.
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