The official tropical weather thread - 2012

[SR]

so today is not a good day for caura then??

[hustla_ambition101]

hope allyuh banning all the wrong info trolls

[Hook]

so today is not a good day for caura then??

lol prolly not...'twas raining heavily up there up to half hr ago

[Hook]

hope allyuh banning all the wrong info trolls

dan I does want to deactivate dey account, delete all their posts, trach them down and punch them in the throat for that stupidness, but the whole "power = responsibility" thing nuh

Anyway, today's weather is NOT associated with the low and the senior meteorologists are convening as we speak. Official word at midday. Stay tuned.

firstchoicett please STFU

[pablo_tt]

I know this is sort of a long shot, but any thermal imagine in the area of the system? Once you know the temperature of the waters in the area of the sytem that could also determine what the storm will do

[Hook]

Those NWP models have already been run and all projected paths have been determined.

Meteorologists are meeting now to decide which model is likely to be applicable to our situation, what may happen and that warning action should be taken.

You can't just call a shot like that just so. Remember the fallout from Tomas a couple years back?

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

Normal weather forecasted for today with the chance of the isolated thundershower

ISSUED AT: 10:20AM
Date:Wednesday 01st of August 2012

Meteorologist: Bagwandeen Ramdatt

FOR THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE Southern Windwards:
Light to moderate showers in broad area is
expected with some improvement from evening until
midnight. The isolated thundershower is likely
this afternon.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
Sunny spells this afternoon... Mostly clear
tonight.


SEAS: Slight to Normal
WAVES: 1.0m to 1.5mIN OPEN WATERS
Near calm IN SHLTD AREAS

Temperature Units:Celsius



FORECAST MAX TEMP.
Piarco: 31 Crown Point: 29
Tides ISSUED AT: 05:42PM
Date:Tuesday 31st of July 2012

Port of Spain HIGH 2:55am 3:59pm LOW 9:29am 9:38pm
Scarborough HIGH 2:42am 3:46pm LOW 9:22am 9:27pm

[pablo_tt]

Those NWP models have already been run and all projected paths have been determined.

Meteorologists are meeting now to decide which model is likely to be applicable to our situation, what may happen and that warning action should be taken.

You can't just call a shot like that just so. Remember the fallout from Tomas a couple years back?

I remember, is not to call a shot just so really, but so we the lay people can also make our decisions too.

[Hook]

Those NWP models have already been run and all projected paths have been determined.

Meteorologists are meeting now to decide which model is likely to be applicable to our situation, what may happen and that warning action should be taken.

You can't just call a shot like that just so. Remember the fallout from Tomas a couple years back?

I remember, is not to call a shot just so really, but so we the lay people can also make our decisions too.

Well yeah, but even though you'll definitely have enough time to adjust your plans, we're all supposed to be prepared for it in any event. My place is always stocked and ready for it around this time of year (so I don't have to rush out for anything), and I'm prepared to drop everything and head to the office if and when that time comes.

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

^ I read that last part and pictured Hook in a cape and Captain Weather Man costume yes.

[Rainman]

We've down manned 6 platforms in the last 24hours, we are at minimum activity with no non-essential personnel on board. Waiting for updates from our crisis management team as we speak.

[Hook]

and tights...doh forget mih tights

[SUPAstarr]

AHAHAHAHAHHAAHAHHH agreed duane, i see it most time, Hook in a cape, givin tuner updates

[maj. tom]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/gis/kml/

Official Google Earth kml layers from the National Weather Service in Fl

The one to look at is Tropical Cyclone forecast models

Load directly into Google Earth and then save the kml in Temporary places.
Should put this in the front page too, since it's official and constantly updated.

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

:lol: and tights...doh forget mih tights

and jockey shorts on the outside

Seriously though
A few questions for the edification of everyone here:

Currently this system is considered what? A tropical depression?

Once it continues to develop it will become a tropical storm at which point it will be given a name (Ernest) and further development if conditions are favorable it will be upgraded to a category 1 hurricane. Correct?

How similar to Tomas is this system looking?

[Hook]

:lol: and tights...doh forget mih tights

and jockey shorts on the outside

Seriously though
A few questions for the edification of everyone here:

Currently this system is considered what? A tropical depression?
It's presently considered as "an area of disturbed weather" until more information becomes available.

Once it continues to develop it will become a tropical storm at which point it will be given a name (Ernest) and further development if conditions are favorable it will be upgraded to a category 1 hurricane. Correct?
Correct. If it gets to TD status first, it will be given a number.

How similar to Tomas is this system looking?
Tomas developed really quickly, completely bypassing TD stage, this one, not so much, but info still coming in.

[maj. tom]

Current average speed is 35-36 knots.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_Hurricane_Scale

It has entered Tropical Storm. Hurricane Hunters will get more info later.


Edit: Official Bulletins/Discussions: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/011201.shtml?


BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.


A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 14N44W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR
10N45W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-13N
BETWEEN 43W-48W. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW/WAVE IS ABOUT 870 NM TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 13 TO 17 KT. INTERESTS IN THE
WINDWARD ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[janfar]

nice link Maj

[pablo_tt]

Lol @ Hook superhero costume.

Thanks for the ino and will have my eyes peeled for any changed

[MISHI]

Watching the imagery, seems like it it having a slight (SLIGHT) turn to the WNW...

(awaits my empty stag bottle busshead from HOOK)

[Hook]

nah, d man in d street done start to talk storm and hurricane talk already

An area of low pressure associated with an activeTropical Wave is located approximately 1500 km east of the Southern Windward Islands and moving West near 25km/hr.

Current analyses as well as data from Numerical Weather Prediction models indicate that this area of disturbed weather has become better organized over the last 24 hours and environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development.

Over the next 48 hours, as this system moves closer to the Windward Islands it is forecast to intensify and possibly become a Tropical Cyclone.

All interest in the Windward Islands and in particular, Tobago, Grenada and its dependencies and Trinidad should closely monitor the progress of this system and further updates emanating from the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service.

AT THIS TIME, WE WISH TO EMPHASISE THAT TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO AND GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES ARE NOT UNDER ANY TROPICAL STORM THREAT, WATCH OR WARNING.

The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service is closely monitoring the progress of this weather system and will issue another update at 6:00 pm. today.

Visit www.metoffice.gov.tt/information-bulletin for your updates.

Please note that any weather experienced today is NOT associated with this system.

[Rainman]

it going and have a storm wrapped up in a hurricane like a bean and cheese burrito and all ah we gwwaaann dead, I forking say so

Seems legit

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

computer models have been updated

[janfar]

Looks like itsd slowly moving to the northwest...

[Hook]

it going and have a storm wrapped up in a hurricane like a bean and cheese burrito and all ah we gwwaaann dead, I forking say so

Seems legit

definitely

[Alexy]

Don't place all your faith in God's supposed nationality.

ROFLMAO

for real

thats sig material there

Da man is wearing red, white and black today!


i hope

[hustla_ambition101]

TD five has formed

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

WTNT35 KNHC 012354
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
800 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 49.8W
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/H...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE NEAR THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON
THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ON FRIDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

[gt4tified]

so today is not a good day for caura then??

lol prolly not...'twas raining heavily up there up to half hr ago

It was at that time but the rain subsided and the firesides were relit...had really nice weather for the rest of the day....level Chivas, double dog and danraj sound clash.

[Toyopet]

With these new models, with the activity to our north, what does this mean for us? Can we expect near unbearable heat?