*** The 2025 GENERAL ELECTION thread***

[The_Honourable]

Canadian research company predicts UNC General Election win

A recent data-driven forecast by Canadian consultancy firm Dunn Pierre Barnett and Company (DPBA) has predicted a narrow victory for the United National Congress (UNC) in the upcoming General Election on Monday.

The independent comprehensive report, which analysed over 5000 voter sentiment surveys, constituency-level data, and AI-assisted projections, suggested that the UNC, led by Kamla Persad-Bissessar, is poised to edge out the incumbent People’s National Movement (PNM) amid what it described as widespread socio-economic dissatisfaction and waning support among Afro-Trinidadian voters for the PNM.

In an interview with Guardian Media yesterday, Director of Research Dr Justine Pierre said the projection was determined by slim margins.

“Based on our data and analysis we are predicting that the UNC would be victorious over the PNM.”

The company, which has a record in predictive analysis, has projected the UNC to win 21 seats and the PNM, 20.

Previously, the DPBA has successfully conducted political forecasting, labour market research, and socio-economic studies across Canada, the Caribbean, and Africa.

Notably, DPBA has provided electoral predictions for countries such as Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Lucia, Grenada, and Barbados, achieving an accuracy rate exceeding 90% in past election cycles.

It said this survey regarding T&T’s General Election was not commissioned by any entity or political party, but the DPBA said it took it upon itself to commission the poll because of previous work it has done in the Caribbean.

“We conducted the Caricom human trafficking study and Trinidad was our pilot. We conducted the PAHO/WHO migration study of the Caribbean where we did a lot of work in almost all the Caribbean islands. What makes our company a little more special is that we have maybe one of the largest databases in the world. We have data of maybe over 60 million people in about 40 different countries including Trinidad and Tobago.”

Afro voters shifting to UNC

According to the study’s political overview, the recent resignation of now former prime minister Dr Keith Rowley and the subsequent appointment of Stuart Young introduced new dynamics into the political landscape. It said the redrawing of constituency boundaries by the Elections and Boundaries Commission (EBC) added complexity to the electoral process.

Pierre noted that the study employed a mixed-methods approach, incorporating survey data from 5,013 respondents conducted between March 20 and April 15, 2025, historical voting trends, AI-assisted predictive models and constituency-level analyses.

Data was also collected and analysed from a recent poll conducted by Political Scientist Dr Hamid Ghany and published by Guardian Media.

DPBA said in 11 marginal constituencies, the UNC leads with 45% support compared to the PNM’s 30%. Third-party support stands at 13%.

“We looked at the persons who lived within the 41 constituencies and analysed them based on their age, gender, ethnicity, and socio-economic status. We also looked at the voter universe of which there are 18 components and we looked at that. In terms of error, our margin of error was about 2- 2.9 per cent.”

Pierre also drilled down into the key factors influencing the 2025 polls.

He said 71% of DPBA survey respondents believe a change in government will improve socio-economic conditions. There were also concerns with crime and public safety (68%), economic decline (59%), foreign exchange shortages (52%) and energy sector crisis (45%).

He also noted that there was dissatisfaction among PNM voters with new leadership in the party.

“Most people historically voted along racial lines. However, when we looked at the analysis and asked people about their voting history, we found out most UNC members traditionally voted for the UNC of a specific ethnic group. However, when we looked at the Afro group we found there was a large shift in the choice from the PNM to the UNC. From those we interviewed about 47% of a specific ethnic group indicated they will give their vote to the UNC.”

Pierre also explained that the UNC has managed to assert itself better on social media when compared to the other political parties.

He also stated that the role of AI and the use of scientific data during an election was critical for an electorate to make an informed decision.

“It is important that accurate data be presented because we need to make decisions based on data. Gone are the days where we make decisions based on how we feel, that decision should be grounded in specific scientific data.”

Attempts by Guardian Media to contact Prime Minister Stuart Young as well as United National Congress Political Leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar to respond to the findings of the predictive analysis were unsuccessful up to late yesterday evening.

Political Leader of the National Transformation Alliance (NTA), Gary Griffith said, “It is a whole mess, there is absolutely no way anybody can say what the outcome is going to be until Monday night. Having said that it shows the need for our media to get actual scientific polls done.”

NACTA says race too close to call

Meanwhile, a recent North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA) poll showed that Monday’s General Election is too close to call, with the PNM and UNC locked in a tight race.

The survey, coordinated by Dr Vishnu Bisram and based on interviews with 1,200 likely voters across Trinidad, suggested that key swing constituencies remain highly competitive, and a small percentage of undecided voters could tip the balance.

While the UNC has a slight edge in overall support and rising confidence in its leadership, the NACTA poll said the outcome will likely depend on results in a few battleground seats.

The findings suggested that minor parties are not expected to win but could influence tight races. NACTA said among smaller parties, the Progressive Front (PF) holds 4% support, the National Transformation Alliance (NTA) 2%, and other parties and independents less than 1%. In Tobago, the PNM leads in the West, while the East remains up for grabs.

https://www.guardian.co.tt/news/canadia ... 4c7316204f

[pugboy]

only found out today that you get back your deposit if you don’t collect a certain amount of votes

[death365]

Ammm I forget to say my prediction is UNC for the win but kamla may pass away in office (unfortunately).

One of the more unpredictable things is them 2 Tobago seats... TPP (blue party) might take it.

The others up for a grab really are

St. Joseph (NTA & Panday shift it to PNM's favour)
Tunapuna
Grande
Lopinoit Bon Aire
Maybe Chaguanas East

[hover11]

I could see Saddam taking over

Ammm I forget to say my prediction is UNC for the win but kamla may pass away in office (unfortunately).

One of the more unpredictable things is them 2 Tobago seats... TPP (blue party) might take it.

The others up for a grab really are

St. Joseph (NTA & Panday shift it to PNM's favour)
Tunapuna
Grande
Lopinoit Bon Aire
Maybe Chaguanas East

[fokhan_96]

The only way UNC winning this election is if PNM voters abstain from voting... which is highly unlikely.

[hover11]

If ppl stupid to vote PNM then I hope they don't complain when the hardship continues

[bluefete]

Just yesterday, Friday, I was saying that for once, we were having a GE with no paper plastered all over lightpoles, people's walls and concrete slabs.

This morning I drove out my house and is only nastiness all over the place. One set of red and some yellow paper stuck up on poles walls and even on a tree.

Nasty, nasty, nasty. That mindset must change.

[Dave]

Now the PNM has left and the NTA has converged.

[Dave]

And then the UNC truck bounces in the NTA party

[hover11]

$300 for a vote

[paid_influencer]

$300 for a voteFB_IMG_1745695213812.jpg

nothing wrong with giving ppl grocery voucher tbh. Things real hard for poor people.

but what I donno if it make sense to vote for a party that snarling any time you talk about "baby milk"
no i serious. try to find a video of them talking about baby grant
what they have so against poor ppl getting $500 to buy baby milk, i don't know

[paid_influencer]

CODE YELLOW Rally start !!

[hover11]

Can someone tell me what there is to look forward to with five more years of PNM ? Nobody answering that question

[The_Honourable]

PNM big red rally at eddie hart grounds

[paid_influencer]

Can someone tell me what there is to look forward to with five more years of PNM ? Nobody answering that question

well it is good from an accelerationist pov

[death365]

Not much ... come to think bout it. Nothing at all.

Unless you consider retirement age going to 65 is good.

Other people consider paying more for electricity good too.

Can someone tell me what there is to look forward to with five more years of PNM ? Nobody answering that question

[paid_influencer]

they won't devalue the dollar... which is good if you are one of those ppl who can get us$ from the bank

yesterday a man sell me a $100 us dollar for 7:1.

i feel like a bandit oui

[The_Honourable]

Excuses set for whichever party loses the election...

PNM - voter suppression of afro trinidadians

UNC - corruption in the EBC

Patriotic Front - voter harassment and intimidation

NTA - "people who wanted to vote for the NTA encountering problems at the polling station"

APP - We get the wrong forms

THC - Babylon system

[Mmoney607]

PNM big red rally at eddie hart grounds

Lady Lava performing fits perfectly with pnm demographic

[alfa]

Excuses set for whichever party loses the election...

PNM - voter suppression of afro trinidadians

UNC - corruption in the EBC

Patriotic Front - voter harassment and intimidation

NTA - "people who wanted to vote for the NTA encountering problems at the polling station"

APP - We get the wrong forms

THC - Babylon system

Don't even know who the last two are lol.
But I see a guy with an NJAC tee shirt today in point, looking brand new to

[hover11]

Excuses set for whichever party loses the election...

PNM - voter suppression of afro trinidadians

UNC - corruption in the EBC

Patriotic Front - voter harassment and intimidation

NTA - "people who wanted to vote for the NTA encountering problems at the polling station"

APP - We get the wrong forms

THC - Babylon system

Don't even know who the last two are lol.
But I see a guy with an NJAC tee shirt today in point, looking brand new to

ALL PEOPLE PARTY is kezel Jackson party you know the one Watson Duke pushed his foot inside of ......yeah that joker

[hover11]

Anita Haynes is at the PNM rally


Is how PNM accepting all the rejected ppl from UNC. Like dogs they eating shite

[paid_influencer]

ANOTHER BIG ACQUISITION BY THE PNM

Anita Haynes !!



edit

Anita Haynes is at the PNM rally

Is how PNM accepting all the rejected ppl from UNC. Like dogs they eating shite

lol

[j.o.e]

Anita Haynes is at the PNM rally


Is how PNM accepting all the rejected ppl from UNC. Like dogs they eating shite

To be fair Anita had a bright future in the UNC. She’s smart and has no dirty laundry not sure why KPB purged her … she and Saddam were a good foundation for the UNC future.

[hover11]

Politics has a morality of its own-Basdeo Panday.

This is the same woman who spoke out against the divers situation and the inaction of the government also concerning bullying in schools yet she sides and now aligns herself with the same party who doesn't care about either. Sometimes the trash really takes itself out. Meanwhile, where is the payment for the divers family?????

[hover11]

IF VOTED INTO GOVERNMENT, THE UNC IS PROMISING TO REGULARIZE CONTRACT WORKERS in the Public Service and State Enterprises.

This according to Public Services Association (PSA) president Felicia Thomas.

[Mmoney607]

Anita Haynes is at the PNM rally


Is how PNM accepting all the rejected ppl from UNC. Like dogs they eating shite

To be fair Anita had a bright future in the UNC. She’s smart and has no dirty laundry not sure why KPB purged her … she and Saddam were a good foundation for the UNC future.

Anita make unc lose the last election

[Mmoney607]

Amery Browne say it have traffic, that's why pnm really so empty

[hover11]

Ah hearing about a surprise guest UNC bringing... this is going to be interesting

[j.o.e]

Anita Haynes is at the PNM rally


Is how PNM accepting all the rejected ppl from UNC. Like dogs they eating shite

To be fair Anita had a bright future in the UNC. She’s smart and has no dirty laundry not sure why KPB purged her … she and Saddam were a good foundation for the UNC future.

Anita make unc lose the last election

Can’t remember this one. Refresh me