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Each week my team from elance runs hundreds of queries on various surnames which we have been tracking since July. We revised our model based on the actual user announcements made by Google on July 13th and Oct 13th. Here is what the tracking shows so far:
July 13 – 10 million
August 1 – 20.5 million
September 1 – 24.7 million
October 1 – 38 million (Larry Page announced “more than 40m users on Oct 13th)
November 1 – 43 million
December 1 – 50 million
December 27 – 62 million
January 1 – 65.8 million (forecast)
February 1 – 85.2 million (forecast)
Strauss wrote:Moving from My Space to Facebook was easy.
But from FaceBook to Google+ ?
I mean.. I'm on both, but so much is on facebook. And facebook is deep in so many places. It's going to be tough.
But the bottom line is $$$
Facebook has the edge here for at least another 6 months.
Swisha wrote:they also said:
Gmail wouldn't become more popular than hotmail and yahoo
Android wouldn't become more popular than iOS and BlackBerry
...
(to be continued)
Strauss wrote:
2. Apple's iOS (iPhone, iPod, AppleTV, iPad) holds on to 60% of the total worldwide market on mobile and internet devices while Android is at 32% total.
Has Android Already Failed?
I'm starting to get seriously worried about the fate of Android, the open-source smartphone OS that was supposed to bring democracy, uniformity, and competition to the mobile world. Instead, it's just bringing a lot of vaporware.
Android was supposed to appear on dozens of different devices from a bunch of different manufacturers. It was supposed to be more flexible than RIM's BlackBerry OS, more widely available than Apple's OS X, and less expensive than Microsoft's Windows Mobile.
But the Android pipeline seems terminally clogged. Six months after T-Mobile released the G1, there's a grand total of one more Android phone available: the HTC Magic, which looks like a G1 with the keyboard snapped off. That's not about to burn up the marketplace.
Android seems to be a perfect example of something that looks great on paper. An open-source, customizable, Linux-based OS with an app store and Google's backing? Sign me up. But to actually build devices, you need a solid SDK, a clear idea of Google's role, and a development ecosystem that's at least as cozy as Windows Mobile's.
Industry insiders have told me that Android makes better theory than practice. The SDK started out spotty, I've heard, and Google has taken a while to decide what its role should be in product development.
Google has just spun out the Android 1.5 SDK, which includes support for soft keyboards, speech recognition, and third-party widgets on the home screen. None of those features are game-changing blockbusters, so Android's strengths remain the same: It's meant to be cheaper, more customizable, and more flexible than other smartphone OSs.
If Android is so cheap and so customizable, why isn't anyone releasing Android phones? Google's hardware partners keep making polite noises, but none of them are showing off hot, upcoming Android devices. Huawei "showed" one in February that wouldn't turn on. Sony Ericsson has admitted that it has punted its Android phones off into the future. Motorola killed speculation last week that it was building an Android-powered set-top box.
Android's customizability was supposed to appeal to wireless carriers, but most carriers seem unimpressed. Verizon proclaimed support for Android in 2007 and never followed up. AT&T says it's still mulling it over. Sprint is focused on the Palm Pre, for now. That's a pretty weak show of support.
PC Mag
3.7 million Android devices activated over Christmas weekend
Andy Rubin continues to use his Twitter account as the broadcasting platform for Android's latest statistical achievements. This time, he's letting us know that a magnificent 3.7 million new Android devices were activated over the holiday weekend. The 1.85 million daily average more than doubles Android's current rate of 700,000 daily activations and marks a rather successful period for vendors of Google's mobile OS.
The Verge
Vic Gundotra wrote:Never forget skeptics. They are sincere, but they just can't see past now. I remember reading this article: http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2345788,00.asp
At over 700,000 activations a day, my how things have changed in 2 years. I guess staying focused and executing sometimes works.
Congratulations to the best software team on the planet. Go Team Android.
Vic Gundotra wrote:Never forget skeptics. They are sincere, but they just can't see past now.
Swisha wrote:Strauss i eh fighting yuh down yuh know, i was just replying to the fact that allyuh dismissing Google+ already the same way others have dismissed Gmail/Chrome/Android etc. etc. before.
but it's all good, as Vic said:Vic Gundotra wrote:Never forget skeptics. They are sincere, but they just can't see past now.
Strauss wrote:
Been following, but I'll get back to you in *detail* later. In fact if you taking a drink later, we could hook up. I feeling to take this discussion to the BAR !!
You made a point about it two things being more popular. Gmail and Android.
Now things become "popular" because people CHOOSE that product/service over the others. In terms of Hotmail, it might less of a choice because the average Windows user will most likely use what their PC comes with — MSN — therefore sign up for Live. They might try out other emails then go back to Hotmail. The real winner is Yahoo! because of 1. Time in the market and 2. people actually choose to NOT use what they had for something better.
In terms of Android vs iOS, there are those who choose the Google's OS vs Apple's OS but most who really choose their best brand of wireless device. I love my Sony. You may love your HTC. There were the Motorola fans. In the other corner we have Nokia then somewhere is RIM.
People choose brands.
If you love Nokia, you'd buy Nokia with whatever OS they give you, once the brand continues to satisfy your needs. I love me my Sony. What does that mean? It means I will be using Android. Did I choose Android over iOS? No.... I choose Sony over Apple. That's the key about marketing here. Now I'm not forgetting those who switched from e.g. Blackberry OS to Android OS. That's a clear Android choice.
What about PCs? Do you really THINK about if your PC will come with Windows? No you don't. You buy a BRAND you like (HP, DELL) or build your own and guess what... it comes with Windows. BAM! Windows has a 85% market share. However people *choose* to buy a Mac over windows. That's a real choice.
How about cars? What if Yamaha made engines for ALL cars. And Porche made engines for themselves and make Subaru? Would people really choose a VVT over a Boxer? No they'd choose BRAND... and then Yamaha would be king of market share.
Wait.. I'm rambling. I need a drink.
It all started with Apple/TechCrunch blogger M.G. Siegler making a huge fuss over something he didn't understand, and while that in and of itself isn't particularly interesting, one of the outcomes of this little internet drama is a comment on Google+ (the tenth one) that so perfectly encapsulates just how important Android is for the world that I felt the need to share it with you. It's the holiday season after all.
As some of you may recall, way back in the day, Steve Jobs said Google's use of the word "open" was disingenuous, and that Google's use of the term in relation to Android was just smokes and mirrors. While the dripping, almost gelatinous irony of Steve Jobs accusing another company of abusing a term for marketing purposes certainly wasn't lost on me, I personally wasn't particularly happy with the lack of a public source code release for Honeycomb either; in the end, however, it didn't change anything about the openness of Android - technically speaking, that is. No licenses were violated, and all the source code that had to be released was properly released (all GPL code, for instance, was readily available).
Still, Andy Rubin, Google's Android chief, felt the need to address Steve Jobs' comments, and opened a Twitter account. His first tweet gave the definition of open - a definition as rock-solid now as it was back then. As most of us will realise, this is the sequence of commands that downloads and compiles the Android source code.
the definition of open: "mkdir android ; cd android ; repo init -u git://android.git.kernel.org/platform/manifest.git ; repo sync ; make"
A few days ago, Rubin posted a tweet about how on December 24 and 25, 3.7 million Android devices were activated. A pretty impressive number, especially since unlike, say, Apple's numbers, this covers devices actually bought and activated by customers, but excludes devices which aren't Android certified, like the Kindle Fire or many Chinese products running Android derivatives (Apple's numbers, on the other hand, only cover shipped devices - not sold devices, like many erroneously believe. Apple uses "sold" rather... Disingenuously by redefining "shipped" to "sold" in its SEC filings).
In any case, Siegler noticed that Rubin's first tweet had been deleted - conspiracy! Proof Android isn't open! Man the trebuchets! "Where did the initial tweet go? Who knows. But it sure looks like he deleted it. Deleted it in an 'open' way, I'm sure," Siegler writes, "Luckily for us all, I saved Rubin's real first tweet from October 19, 2010." Can you imagine if he hadn't saved it for us all? What a relief!
There's no conspiracy here, of course. The simple fact of the matter is that the instructions for downloading and building Android which were given in Rubin's first tweet were outdated. After the kernel.org root server was compromised, many code repositories, including Android's, were moved away from kernel.org. In other words, Rubin's commands simply don't work any more, and as such, the tweet was deleted. Again, the irony of Siegler making a fuss about this isn't lost on me.
In case you were wondering, the new definition of open:
$ repo init -u https://android.googlesource.com/platform/manifest -b android-4.0.3_r1
All this is remarkably uninteresting, but there's one upside to all this. In a comment posted on Google+ (the tenth one; how do you link to Google+ comments?), Clinton DeWitt explains the importance of open source in mobile, and the effect Android will have (and already is having) on the mobile industry in places other than the rich west. For the first time, a smartphone operating system is going to impact more than rich people in the US and Europe, and that is pretty darn revolutionary.
"I believe what Android is accomplishing is truly revolutionary. Mobile is the way that billions of people will one day access the Internet. And through that access, we will soon start to narrow the massive knowledge gap that currently divides the richest from the poorest populations," DeWitt explains, "That there's now an eminently capable open source mobile operating system, one that is free to use and free to fork, means that the knowledge advantage can be better and more evenly distributed across the planet than ever before."
"For some pundits, it's all about which companies are building the fanciest and most feature-rich handheld computers. Which, if we're being honest about it, are devices for those that already have everything. When you're at the top, it's great to see the tech giants going head-to-head and competing for our dollars like this. Having a few dollars, I benefit from that, too," he adds, "And yet in spite of that, I'm even more excited about seeing a $25 mobile device that has access to a killer web browser and endless mobile apps, and watching that device appear in the hands of a billion school children over the next 10 years."
The iPhone is heralded as the most revolutionary mobile phone in human history, but the cold and harsh truth is that for all the cheering and punditry, the iPhone's impact on the world is negligible. Sure, it had a huge impact on the smartphone market in rich countries - but it didn't have such an impact on the world.
For all the bad jokes directed at the company during its trying times, Nokia is the technology company that truly changed the world. Nokia put a mobile phone within every person's reach. Even people in some of the poorest places on earth were given the ability to communicate wirelessly, thanks to Nokia making the mobile phone affordable to everyone. Personally, I see this as one of the greatest achievements of the technology world, but sadly, it's often overlooked because "ooh Apple has pinch-to-zoom!!!1!"
What Nokia did for the mobile phone, Android is doing for the smartphone. It's not Apple that's going to put a smartphone in every corner of the globe - it's not Microsoft; heck, not even Google, but Android. In ten to fifteen years' time, we will look back and regard Android as the technology that enabled even the poorest people in this world to have access to the web (and thus, knowledge), just like we regard Nokia as the company that put the mobile phone in every corner of the globe.
Of all the features, of all the first world problem whining, of all the lawsuits, of all the lacking updates, of all the antennagates, of all the pentile matrix nonsense, of all the large displays, of all the design patents, of all the everything - that is what makes Android revolutionary.
And that's worth ten billion BS bounce-back scrolling software patents.
They do count shipments to carriers/operators/resellers as a sale(aka revenue)
To quote the SEC 10K filing from Apple:
Part II. Item 7. Page 26
Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates > Revenue recognition
Net sales consist primarily of revenue from the sale of hardware, software, digital content and applications, peripherals, and service and support contracts. The Company recognizes revenue when persuasive evidence of an arrangement exists, delivery has occurred, the sales price is fixed or determinable, and collection is probable. Product is considered delivered to the customer once it has been shipped and title and risk of loss have been transferred. For most of the Company’s product sales, these criteria are met at the time the product is shipped. For online sales to individuals, for some sales to education customers in the U.S., and for certain other sales, the Company defers recognition of revenue until the customer receives the product because the Company retains a portion of the risk of loss on these sales during transit.
M_2NR wrote:now i feeling to get a sgs ii lol
M_2NR wrote:now i feeling to get a sgs ii lol
S_2NR wrote:ICS is pure win!
Loving it thus far.
Btw ICS on SII looking the same as gingerbread.
They rape that with Touchwizz
S_2NR wrote:M_2NR wrote:now i feeling to get a sgs ii lol
u fedup of the iphone
M_2NR wrote:Hopefully in iOS 6 we get an app drawer so i can slap all those apps that i hardly use but are still essential into.
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