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EFFECTIC DESIGNS wrote:randolphinshan wrote:zoom rader wrote:^^^ You will have PNM ppl defending caricom
ZR why u doh go back to school and learn some sense ras, i assuming u could read eh
Caricom/ regional integration is the only thing that will save these small island states you kant. Have you ever heard about the economies of scale theory ? You should just do like the other PP Gov't supporters and go drink some white oak and eat a doubles yea
What do these other islands do for us exactly? apart from support the PNM? ow wait.....
zoom rader wrote:EFFECTIC DESIGNS wrote:randolphinshan wrote:zoom rader wrote:^^^ You will have PNM ppl defending caricom
ZR why u doh go back to school and learn some sense ras, i assuming u could read eh
Caricom/ regional integration is the only thing that will save these small island states you kant. Have you ever heard about the economies of scale theory ? You should just do like the other PP Gov't supporters and go drink some white oak and eat a doubles yea
What do these other islands do for us exactly? apart from support the PNM? ow wait.....
Illegal immigration
drain health resources
Unable to pronounce indo names
Ignorant to indo trini culture .
Fuels crime, we still seeing the ills of laventille and beetham nearly after 60yrs
Unable to settle in.
Brings in violent Jamaica culture.
We don't know criminal background they have.
These illegal ppl are not positive and primitive.
All above are associated with the illegals.
The legal immgrants show the opposite attributes are more positive while making a useful contribution.
Wanna come to trini then do it the legal way.
zoom rader wrote:EFFECTIC DESIGNS wrote:randolphinshan wrote:zoom rader wrote:^^^ You will have PNM ppl defending caricom
ZR why u doh go back to school and learn some sense ras, i assuming u could read eh
Caricom/ regional integration is the only thing that will save these small island states you kant. Have you ever heard about the economies of scale theory ? You should just do like the other PP Gov't supporters and go drink some white oak and eat a doubles yea
What do these other islands do for us exactly? apart from support the PNM? ow wait.....
Illegal immigration
drain health resources
Unable to pronounce indo names
Ignorant to indo trini culture .
Fuels crime, we still seeing the ills of laventille and beetham nearly after 60yrs
Unable to settle in.
Brings in violent Jamaica culture.
We don't know criminal background they have.
These illegal ppl are not positive and primitive.
All above are associated with the illegals.
The legal immgrants show the opposite attributes are more positive while making a useful contribution.
Wanna come to trini then do it the legal way.
Dookeran and Carolyn out of this year’s polls
Renuka Singh
Published:
Friday, January 9, 2015
Winston Dookeran
Two senior members of the Congress of the People (COP) are out of the running for this year’s general election.
The party has decided to remove its founder, Tunapuna MP Winston Dookeran, and his long-time supporter, San Fernando West MP Carolyn Seepersad-Bachan, from its electoral line-up for the election, citing their failure to attend high-level talks regarding the party’s choices for election.
The decision comes after two letters were sent to Dookeran and Seepersad-Bachan notifying them they had until November 25 to respond to the request for a meeting.
In that letter, the COP executive said since the two did not respond to previous letters “the party will be constrained to assume that it is your intention not to seek re-election or be considered as a candidate in the general election 2015.”
But even as Seepersad-Bachan is denying she was invited to any meeting, the T&T Guardian understands that party leader Prakash Ramadhar is expected to announce their removal from the line-up after the party’s national council meeting on Sunday.
Party chair Nicole Dyer-Griffith said yesterday she could not discuss party matters but confirmed the national council meeting on Sunday.
In a telephone interview yesterday, Seepersad-Bachan said she never received any such letters from the party executive inviting her to any meetings.
Seepersad-Bachan also was surprised the party would be making a definitive statement on the issue on Sunday.
This is fresh contention between the Dookeran Seepersad-Bachan faction and the rest of the COP.
The two MPs were the only party members to a make a “conscience vote” against the Government during the Constitutional Amendment Bill and Dookeran also showed his support for Seepersad-Bachan when she challenged Ramadhar for the COP leadership election last year.
The T&T Guardian was told that Seepersad-Bachan’s supporters believed the bid to remove her was a bid by the United National Congress (UNC) to undermine the independence of the COP.
They say the UNC only recently established an office one block away from Seepersad-Bachan’s MP office on Harris Street, San Fernando, and has not been inviting her to constituency meetings held there.
The T&T Guardian was also told by party insiders that Dookeran has signalled his refusal to re-contest the Tunapuna seat in the upcoming election and that is the seat Dyer-Griffith has been eying for her bid as an MP.
“I am not sure this is the way to treat MPs, especially those who have been in leadership,” Seepersad-Bachan said.
Insiders close to the situation though have taken a different view, saying Seepersad-Bachan was aware of the letters because it was discussed with party general secretary Clyde Weatherhead.
This group also claimed that Ramadhar attempted to meet with Seepersad-Bachan on several occasions, making the requests verbally and in a mobile text but she claimed to be busy on those occasions.
Ramadhar and Dookeran did not respond to calls to their cellphones yesterday.
www.guardian.co.tt/news/2015-01-09/dook ... n-out-year’s-polls
Habit7 wrote:Why does anyone have to be able to pronounce Indo names? English is our official language, if someone has a name that isn't English then tough luck.
Habit7 wrote:Dookeran and Carolyn out of this year’s polls
Renuka Singh
Published:
Friday, January 9, 2015
Winston Dookeran
Two senior members of the Congress of the People (COP) are out of the running for this year’s general election.
The party has decided to remove its founder, Tunapuna MP Winston Dookeran, and his long-time supporter, San Fernando West MP Carolyn Seepersad-Bachan, from its electoral line-up for the election, citing their failure to attend high-level talks regarding the party’s choices for election.
The decision comes after two letters were sent to Dookeran and Seepersad-Bachan notifying them they had until November 25 to respond to the request for a meeting.
In that letter, the COP executive said since the two did not respond to previous letters “the party will be constrained to assume that it is your intention not to seek re-election or be considered as a candidate in the general election 2015.”
But even as Seepersad-Bachan is denying she was invited to any meeting, the T&T Guardian understands that party leader Prakash Ramadhar is expected to announce their removal from the line-up after the party’s national council meeting on Sunday.
Party chair Nicole Dyer-Griffith said yesterday she could not discuss party matters but confirmed the national council meeting on Sunday.
In a telephone interview yesterday, Seepersad-Bachan said she never received any such letters from the party executive inviting her to any meetings.
Seepersad-Bachan also was surprised the party would be making a definitive statement on the issue on Sunday.
This is fresh contention between the Dookeran Seepersad-Bachan faction and the rest of the COP.
The two MPs were the only party members to a make a “conscience vote” against the Government during the Constitutional Amendment Bill and Dookeran also showed his support for Seepersad-Bachan when she challenged Ramadhar for the COP leadership election last year.
The T&T Guardian was told that Seepersad-Bachan’s supporters believed the bid to remove her was a bid by the United National Congress (UNC) to undermine the independence of the COP.
They say the UNC only recently established an office one block away from Seepersad-Bachan’s MP office on Harris Street, San Fernando, and has not been inviting her to constituency meetings held there.
The T&T Guardian was also told by party insiders that Dookeran has signalled his refusal to re-contest the Tunapuna seat in the upcoming election and that is the seat Dyer-Griffith has been eying for her bid as an MP.
“I am not sure this is the way to treat MPs, especially those who have been in leadership,” Seepersad-Bachan said.
Insiders close to the situation though have taken a different view, saying Seepersad-Bachan was aware of the letters because it was discussed with party general secretary Clyde Weatherhead.
This group also claimed that Ramadhar attempted to meet with Seepersad-Bachan on several occasions, making the requests verbally and in a mobile text but she claimed to be busy on those occasions.
Ramadhar and Dookeran did not respond to calls to their cellphones yesterday.
http://www.guardian.co.tt/news/2015-01- ... n-out-year’s-polls
Tunapuna and Sando West....HOME!!!
UML wrote:1137 votes on cnc3 poll
96% satisfied with the PM address on the state of the economy. Doom and gloom!!!
2. Inflation has fallen. Headline inflation dropped to 5.6 percent in 2013, partly due to a change in methodology that eliminated a significant upward bias to food price inflation as of April 2013. Core inflation has remained within a narrow range of 2 to 3 percent. Recorded unemployment dropped to a record low of 3.7 percent in QI-2013, the latest data available, although a substantial amount of underemployment still goes unreported.
5. Although the external stability assessment indicates a large degree of overvaluation using official inflation data, there is a severe bias in measured inflation (Annex 1). Estimates calculated using the official CPI indicate exchange rate overvaluation of 8.1 to 25.6 percent in 2013. However, adjusting for the measurement bias in inflation reduces that to 2.6 to 8.5 percent. Other indicators, such as the stability of Trinidad and Tobago’s global share of non-energy exports, suggest that competitiveness may not yet be a critical problem. However, as energy resources dwindle, the country will need to rebalance exports towards the non-energy sector.
6. The foreign exchange market has become a focus of concern once again. The Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago (CBTT) administratively determines both the price of U.S. dollars (within a narrow range) and the marginal volume via its own sales (Box 1). The CBTT has historically responded to excess foreign exchange demand by adjusting sales quantities in subsequent auctions until the market clears, including a sale of $200 million into the market in late May, 2014.
7. However, market participants have reported fairly widespread and persistent foreign exchange shortages since the fourth quarter of 2013. The persistence of the shortages, in contrast to previous episodes, may suggest growing balance of payments pressures stemming from high domestic liquidity, rather than merely a temporary mis-calibration of short-term shifts in supply and demand. Banks reportedly favor providing foreign exchange for current transactions, but there is no data on the types of transactions for which shortages have arisen, or on the length of delays.
Several business associations have expressed concerns about foreign exchange shortages and the impacts on their members. Some have complained that their members are unable to pay foreign suppliers, risking adverse impact on their credit standing vis-à-vis foreign suppliers. In addition, repeated shortages have resulted in incentives to hoard foreign exchange. The CBTT reports that its most recent injection of $200 million was sufficient to clear unsatisfied demand queues for foreign exchange, although it acknowledges the market could return to a position of excess demand.
10. Social programs remain overlapping and poorly coordinated. The government is moving forward with reforms to better target vulnerable households and develop a central registry for some programs, to provide better client-service and to monitor and detect fraud.
12. The authorities intend to significantly outperform the FY 2013/14 deficit target. This is being accomplished by ad hoc measures, including larger than budgeted dividend from state-owned enterprises and by reining in current expenditures, notwithstanding election pressures.
In addition, the development budget is likely to be under-executed as in prior years. Overall, staff project the FY 2013/14 deficit at 1½ percent of GDP. Absent these factors, the deficit would be closer to 3½ percent of GDP, suggesting the underlying structure of fiscal policies remains accommodative.
21. The government has advanced on structural reforms, notably to improve rankings on global competitiveness indices. The government has reduced the average time to start a business from 43 days to 3 and to obtain construction permits from 42 weeks to 6. It is also reducing the time to clear shipments through customs and intends to establish appropriate insolvency frameworks, reform procurement legislation, expedite property registration and improve contract enforcement.
22. Elsewhere, structural reform progress is lagging. There has been little to no progress in improving public service efficiency (Box 4). Many officials express frustration at the slow pace of hiring, promotions and disciplinary actions. Personnel decisions are cumbersome, requiring actions from three public agencies, subject to excessive judicial challenges, and excessively centralized. In addition, government bodies, including special purpose vehicles, have proliferated.
23. Despite the low recorded unemployment rate, there is evidence of significant underemployment. The estimated elasticity of employment to GDP is low, suggesting that official data may underestimate the degree of slack in the labor market. Temporary make work programs reduce measured unemployment, but contribute little value added.
24. Finally, and critically, there has been little concrete progress in improving the statistical base. The Central Statistical Office (CSO) has yet to move into suitable quarters and remains woefully under-staffed and under-resourced. The production of critical data (including GDP, trade, and labor, as well as tourism statistics) continues to fall further behind, grinding to a halt in critical areas and rendering the conduct of surveillance ever harder (Box 5).
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr ... r14271.pdf
:lol::lol:UML wrote:I know ur a pnm costaatt candidate but u really can't count. Funny you would intentionally muss out certain points of rhe document which highlights the positive of this government. PNM Misinformation Propaganda hence the name propaganda nepotism misinformation/mismanagement
He listed 10 points of a 68 positive point (for government) document
UML wrote:I know ur a pnm costaatt candidate but u really can't count. Funny you would intentionally miss out certain points of the document which highlights the positives of this government. PNM Misinformation Propaganda hence the name Propaganda Nepotism Misinformation/Mismanagement
He listed 10 points of a 68 positive point (for government) document
Habit7 wrote:I pass up that comment every time I see it. I work for a Fortune 500 company with colleagues from all around the world. Only small minded trinis argue about who went UWI/UTT/COSTAATT, it is as relevant as boasting about your high school in university. Nobody really cares, once you have the accredited qualifications and can do the work. Your UWI is another man's COSTAATT.
Habit7 wrote:I pass up that comment every time I see it. I work for a Fortune 500 company with colleagues from all around the world. Only small minded trinis argue about who went UWI/UTT/COSTAATT, it is as relevant as boasting about your high school in university. Nobody really cares, once you have the accredited qualifications and can do the work. Your UWI is another man's COSTAATT.
Crackpot wrote:
All of the above is not just attributable to illegals btw, stop the assumptions and the stereotyping
You could make a good left-wing republican btw...why don't you join some other forum and try to stop immigration to the US and bad talk mexicans and lil-wayne
Crackpot wrote:Habit7 wrote:I pass up that comment every time I see it. I work for a Fortune 500 company with colleagues from all around the world. Only small minded trinis argue about who went UWI/UTT/COSTAATT, it is as relevant as boasting about your high school in university. Nobody really cares, once you have the accredited qualifications and can do the work. Your UWI is another man's COSTAATT.
These UNC agents of provocation have every chip on their shoulder imaginable
They would have you believe that every single thing wrong with society today can be blamed on one organisation
That is naive and also dangerous to follow the repetition of their discourse as you get a lesson in how to blame others and hate blindly. I have learned alot about how the UNC and their supporters really feel about alot of things in Trinidad that they did not implement and how they blame others for not being able to solve the things they said they would fix. First they said they could do the job, then when they got it, the previous man mess it up or it will take long to fix.
Lemme be real, the P.P has done some good stuff but the fact is that they do not come across as genuine neither do I feel a sense of trust that they really have the country at heart.
The Children's Life Fund was a excellent short term initiative, however I know that there has been no holistic improvements in the healthcare sector from 2010 to now. This is not from lack of will but an inability to bridge the gap between the structures of bureaucracy that exist via genuinely working with ppl ala Obama or Merkel. Now a comment like this would be like a gas pain for the sycophants who are in full blown cult mode to make but it does not always have to devolve to UML/ZR/duplicate account levels.
There are some other initiatives like the thrust to improve rural infrastructure,this is commendable but has been marred by obvious shoddy work in many areas thus having other contractors to take over hereby costing twice the amt and both the confirmed/alleged corruption and kickbacks that this gov't cannot seem to get away from. If executed properly, fairly and honestly for the majority of these projects nobody would have had anything to say but even this basic requirement cannot be met in alot of instances.
So I cannot see myself ever voting for anyone whom the above commenter's support because of their real feelings towards a large segment that is generally not reciprocated, yet still they want to govern us with their recalcitrant feelings similar to the above
De Dragon wrote:Habit7 wrote:I pass up that comment every time I see it. I work for a Fortune 500 company with colleagues from all around the world. Only small minded trinis argue about who went UWI/UTT/COSTAATT, it is as relevant as boasting about your high school in university. Nobody really cares, once you have the accredited qualifications and can do the work. Your UWI is another man's COSTAATT.
Yet here you are, day in, day out taking chain up fro zr and UML
Habit7 wrote:UML wrote:I know ur a pnm costaatt candidate but u really can't count. Funny you would intentionally muss out certain points of rhe document which highlights the positive of this government. PNM Misinformation Propaganda hence the name propaganda nepotism misinformation/mismanagement
He listed 10 points of a 68 positive point (for government) document
I didn't "muss" out anything. I posted the points that countered outlook the PM gave. Even if posted the positive points, they still don't vindicate the PM on the rose colored perception of inflation, unemployment, foreign exchange and policy the PM deceived you with.
false, misinformation....IRONIC!!
Furthermore I limited myself to the 24 points under Recent Development because the PM in her vagueness never referenced anything relevant to the other points. It should only take one point to show you that the PM tried to misrepresent our situation far better than it actually is, I however gave you ten.
But your book any criticism of the govt is propaganda whether it is PNM, IMF or Transparency International.
no shame!!!![\spoiler]1. Trinidad and Tobago is embarking on sustained growth after several years of weak
performance, attributable to the global crisis and energy sector supply-side slowdowns.
Growth estimated at 1.6 percent for 2013 was buoyed by 2.5 percent growth in the non-energy
sector. Although data limitations inhibit analysis, government subsidies and transfers appear to be
supporting consumption while public development spending supported construction.
2. Inflation has fallen. Headline inflation dropped to 5.6 percent in 2013, partly due to a
change in methodology that eliminated a significant upward bias to food price inflation as of April
2013. Core inflation has remained within a narrow range of 2 to 3 percent. Recorded unemployment
dropped to a record low of 3.7 percent in QI-2013, the latest data available, although a substantial
amount of underemployment still goes unreported.
3. The external position remains healthy given strong external buffers and a structural
current account surplus. External reserves grew from $9.2 billion at end-2012 to US$9.8 billion in
February 2014, helped by December’s $550 million external bond issue. The Heritage and
Stabilization Fund (HSF) grew to $5.1 billion (September 2013), due to contributions and earnings.
4. The estimated current account surplus rebounded to 11.8 percent of GDP in 2013.
Conclusions must be tempered by serious data deficiencies, but there are signs that excess bank
liquidity may be leaking into imports, especially automobiles.1
There is also a widespread view that
portfolio outflows are starting to respond to interest rate differentials that have moved marginally in
favor of U.S. dollar-denominated assets.2
5. Although the external stability assessment indicates a large degree of overvaluation
using official inflation data, there is a severe bias in measured inflation (Annex 1). Estimates
calculated using the official CPI indicate exchange rate overvaluation of 8.1 to 25.6 percent in 2013.
However, adjusting for the measurement bias in inflation reduces that to 2.6 to 8.5 percent. Other
indicators, such as the stability of Trinidad and Tobago’s global share of non-energy exports,
suggest that competitiveness may not yet be a critical problem. However, as energy resources
dwindle, the country will need to rebalance exports towards the non-energy sector.
6. The foreign exchange market has become a focus of concern once again. The Central
Bank of Trinidad and Tobago (CBTT) administratively determines both the price of U.S. dollars
(within a narrow range) and the marginal volume via its own sales (Box 1). The CBTT has historically
1
Official trade data from the Statistical Agency are available only up to February 2012. Data for the rest of 2012 and
2013 are the CBTT’s estimates using trading partner data (although the CSO has also recently provided some
unaudited trade data). In addition, the capital and financial account has incomplete coverage and lacks detail on
external assets and liabilities, resulting in a large and unexplained private capital account, equivalent to 10 percent of
GDP in 2011. The CBTT is enhancing its BOP compilation system to meet international standards. The CBTT’s plan has
been to fully transition from BPM5 to BPM6 by 2014, and subscribe to SDDS. However, progress has been very slow,
in significant part due to the challenges at the CSO, and significant delays are likely.
2
According to the CBTT, sales of new automobile increased by 16 percent in 2013, while those of motor vehicles and
parts are estimated to have grown 35 percent in 2013, Q1, yoy. TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 5
responded to excess foreign exchange demand by adjusting sales quantities in subsequent auctions
until the market clears, including a sale of $200 million into the market in late May, 2014.
7. However, market participants have reported fairly widespread and persistent foreign
exchange shortages since the fourth quarter of 2013. The persistence of the shortages, in
contrast to previous episodes, may suggest growing balance of payments pressures stemming from
high domestic liquidity, rather than merely a temporary mis-calibration of short-term shifts in supply
and demand. Banks reportedly favor providing foreign exchange for current transactions, but there
is no data on the types of transactions for which shortages have arisen, or on the length of delays.
Several business associations have expressed concerns about foreign exchange shortages and the
impacts on their members. Some have complained that their members are unable to pay foreign
suppliers, risking adverse impact on their credit standing vis-à-vis foreign suppliers. In addition,
repeated shortages have resulted in incentives to hoard foreign exchange. The CBTT reports that its
most recent injection of $200 million was sufficient to clear unsatisfied demand queues for foreign
exchange, although it acknowledges the market could return to a position of excess demand.
8. Fiscal policy was relatively expansionary in FY 2012/13 (October 2012–September
2013). The central government deficit was estimated at 3.5 percent of GDP. The outturn was lower
than the budget target of 4.6 percent as revenue outperformance exceeded expenditure overruns
(the latter incurred partly due to payment of previous multi-year wage settlements), but the degree
of over-performance fell compared to recent history.
9. Subsidies and transfers grew further. Energy subsidies rose by 1.6 percentage points of
GDP, which did not, however, prevent energy arrears from growing further.3
Unlike previous years,
capital expenditures exceeded the budget, in part due to a reallocation of resources from
underperforming projects to other areas of the public sector investment program.
10. Social programs remain overlapping and poorly coordinated. The government is moving
forward with reforms to better target vulnerable households and develop a central registry for some
programs, to provide better client-service and to monitor and detect fraud.
11. Debt remains moderate. Gross central government and nonfinancial public sector debt
ratios declined, to 16.0 and 30.7 percent of GDP, respectively (September 2013). Central government
external debt was only 6.2 percent of GDP at end-FY 2013, while HSF assets totaled 18.5 percent of
GDP at end-September 2013.
12. The authorities intend to significantly outperform the FY 2013/14 deficit target. This is
being accomplished by ad hoc measures, including larger than budgeted dividend from state-owned
enterprises and by reining in current expenditures, notwithstanding election pressures.4
In addition,
3
Fuel subsidy arrears to the state-owned energy company Petrotrin were estimated at 3.0 percent of GDP by the end
of FY 2012/13. Additional cash has been appropriated for petroleum subsidies in FY 2013/14 (totaling some
3¾ percent of GDP), both to finance ongoing subsidies and reducing arrears, which are expected to be eliminated by
the fiscal year’s end.
4
Dividends from nonfinancial SOEs, excluding the National Lotteries, already totaled 1¾ percent of GDP in the first
quarter of FY 2013/14, compared to 0.8 percent of GDP budgeted for the whole fiscal year. This includes a dividend
from the National Gas Company equivalent to ¾ percent of GDP. TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
6 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
the development budget is likely to be under-executed as in prior years. Overall, staff project the
FY 2013/14 deficit at 1½ percent of GDP. Absent these factors, the deficit would be closer to
3½ percent of GDP, suggesting the underlying structure of fiscal policies remains accommodative.
13. The authorities are making significant efforts to reduce arrears. Energy subsidy arrears
are being eliminated by netting them off against tax arrears from the state-owned energy company
Petrotrin. Budget allocations for VAT refunds have been increased to TT$500–600 million per month
in order to reduce arrears on refunds to TT$ 1 billion by end-FY 2013/14. The intention is to clear
them in FY 2014/15 and then change the system so only net VAT proceeds are remitted in future.
14. Fiscal revenues over-performed in FY 2012/13, and are set to do so this year too.5
Direct tax revenues are on track due to robust economic activity and improvements in tax
administration. Yields from indirect taxation were mixed as higher customs duties were more than
offset by lower net VAT yields, the latter reflecting in part the partial clearing of refund arrears. On
revenue policies, the authorities have begun the initial steps to eventually implement a property tax,
to be phased in over three years. The authorities also intend to reform the VAT, but preparatory
work has not yet significantly begun.
15. The National Insurance System (NIS) continues to run surpluses. While benefit
expenditures exceeded contributions for the first time in FY 2012/13, earlier than projected, portfolio
returns financed a continued accumulation in reserves.6
In line with the 8th actuarial review’s
recommendations, benefits were increased in 2013–14 by some 50 percent to compensate for
inflation since the previous review, while revenues were boosted by raising the maximum level of
income subject to contributions (which also raises future benefits), and by increasing the
contribution rate. However, further actuarial reforms will
be needed to make the system solvent over the long
term (Box 2).7
16. Monetary policy remains accommodative.
The CBTT has maintained its repo rate at a cyclical low
of 2.75 percent, mostly in view of contained core
inflation. Credit growth overall has been fairly moderate,
increasingly concentrated in consumer loans and
mortgages as business lending contracts
(-3.6 percent yoy through end-December). Weak
business credit reflects largely a lack of demand, given
considerable spare capacity in certain sectors, large cash
balances held by businesses, and a lack of confidence in a strong economic recovery.
5
Revenues have over-performed in recent years, especially reflecting conservative energy price assumptions when
projecting energy-sector revenues.
6
The NIS’s accumulated assets totaled TT$ 24.6 billion (13¾ percent of the staff’s estimated GDP) in June 2013.
7
Although the NIS is not a part of the general government, the government has a contingent legal liability to meet
benefit obligations. The system is administered by the National Insurance Board of Trinidad and Tobago (NIBTT),
which comprises representatives of government, employers and labor.
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Private Credit Growth, Banks and NBFIs
(percent change, y-o-y)
Total private credit
Mortgage loans
Business loans
Consumer loansTRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 7
17. The banking system appears sound. After-tax profits have recovered from cyclical lows
while system-wide NPL ratios have fallen 1.2 percentage points and capital is one-quarter of riskweighted
assets. Systemic liquidity, stemming from foreign exchange generated by the energy
sector and domestic liquidity injections from fiscal operations, remains high, rising to TT$ 7.5 billion
at end-March 2014, compared to an annual average of TT$3.6 billion in 2012.
18. The CBTT continues to absorb excess liquidity.
8
Treasury bonds totaling TT$ 1.56 billion
were issued in mid-2013 and commercial bank deposits with the CBTT were rolled over. After limits
on Treasury borrowing for liquidity sterilization were reached, they were increased in December
2013.9
Nonetheless, excess liquidity continues to challenge the abilities of the CBTT to absorb it.
19. Financial sector reform is advancing (Box 3). Securities legislation, passed at the end of
2012, has enhanced the powers of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and the CBTT and
SEC are collaborating on developing a new regulatory model for non-bank systemically important
financial institutions. Legislation to modernize insurance regulation, including introducing risk-based
regulatory capital, is anticipated for the summer of 2014, while laws on pension reform and bringing
credit unions into the central bank’s regulatory perimeter are still in the pipeline. The authorities
have also taken steps to improve crisis prevention and planning, including at the regional level.
20. The wind-up of CL Financial Corporation (which owned CLICO, a failed insurance
company) continues. A large majority of holders of government bonds issued after the collapse
took up the offer to exchange their bonds for shares in the CLICO Investment Fund, which had been
owned by CL Financial. Meanwhile, the government plans to recoup much of its remaining exposure
to CLICO by selling its traditional insurance operations, and has retained a consultant to value those
assets.
21. The government has advanced on structural reforms, notably to improve rankings on
global competitiveness indices. The government has reduced the average time to start a business
from 43 days to 3 and to obtain construction permits from 42 weeks to 6. It is also reducing the time
to clear shipments through customs and intends to establish appropriate insolvency frameworks,
reform procurement legislation, expedite property registration and improve contract enforcement.
22. Elsewhere, structural reform progress is lagging. There has been little to no progress in
improving public service efficiency (Box 4). Many officials express frustration at the slow pace of
hiring, promotions and disciplinary actions. Personnel decisions are cumbersome, requiring actions
from three public agencies, subject to excessive judicial challenges, and excessively centralized. In
addition, government bodies, including special purpose vehicles, have proliferated.
23. Despite the low recorded unemployment rate, there is evidence of significant
underemployment. The estimated elasticity of employment to GDP is low, suggesting that official
8
The Central Bank’s primary tools for liquidity absorption are open market operations through the issuance of
treasury bills, notes and bonds on behalf of the government and special fixed-term deposits with commercial banks.
The proceeds of the treasury sales are kept at the CBTT rather than being made available for Government spending.
9
The limits on Treasury bills were increased from TT$ 15 billion to TT$ 30 billion, and on Treasury notes from
TT$ 5 billion to TT$ 15 billion. TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
8 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
data may underestimate the degree of slack in the labor market. Temporary make work programs
reduce measured unemployment, but contribute little value added.10
24. Finally, and critically, there has been little concrete progress in improving the
statistical base. The Central Statistical Office (CSO) has yet to move into suitable quarters and
remains woefully under-staffed and under-resourced. The production of critical data (including GDP,
trade, and labor, as well as tourism statistics) continues to fall further behind, grinding to a halt in
critical areas and rendering the conduct of surveillance ever harder (Box 5).
RISKS AND MEDIUM-TERM OUTLOOK
25. Real growth is projected at near 2½ percent in 2014, as energy sector growth recovers
following the maintenance outages of recent years. Non-energy growth should remain buoyant due
to the high level of support from public expenditure.
26. Over the medium term, reduced slack in the labor market may become a binding
constraint. Non-energy growth should settle in around long-term potential estimated at 2 to
2½ percent per annum. Absent a wide-ranging program of reforms, structural impediments will
continue to hamper non-energy investment, and hence long-run potential output in that sector.
Real medium-term energy sector growth potential is estimated around 1 percent per annum.
27. Beyond the medium term, a recent pickup in energy sector investment may bear
significant fruit, especially if deepwater exploration proves as productive as hoped.
11 Foreign
direct investment in the energy sector reached a historical high of $2.3 billion in 2012, and capital
expenditure in the sector is expected to be around $3.3 billion in 2014.12 Core inflation should
remain relatively low, although demand-side pressures will have to be monitored carefully as the
output gap closes.
28. On unchanged policies, projected fiscal deficits would grow to 5.5 percent of GDP by
2019, given falling energy prices in the WEO baseline. This assumes no fiscal adjustment since
specific, quantified adjustment measures have not been announced. However, the authorities’ have
set a balanced budget target for 2016, and a range of measures is under discussion that could
provide considerable scope for consolidation.
10 See Box 1 on “Underemployment in Trinidad and Tobago” in Trinidad and Tobago: Staff Report for the 2013 Article
IV Consultation, IMF, October 2013.
11 The government has provided a range of fiscal incentives to the energy sector in recent years, including
accelerated capital allowances, that energy company executives credit with the recent pickup in investment in the
sector. In addition to the stimulus for new investment from such incentives, new technologies, such as Ocean Bottom
Cable (which greatly improves results from seismic surveys), also hold out hope for increased production from
previously developed provinces and improves prospects for Trinidad and Tobago’s unexplored deepwater fields.
12 The split of profits across the natural-gas value chain among upstream gas production, the National Gas Company,
which aggregates and distributes natural gas, and the downstream users of natural gas is expected to be an
important factor in determining the scale of investment in the industry. The government is currently drawing up a
Natural Gas Master Plan that will play a critical role in determining, among other things, pricing along the gas value
chain. TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 9
29. Even under the conservative baseline, a debt sustainability analysis indicates no major
concerns through the projection period (Annex 2). Although the central government’s debt
trajectory is of some concern, the debt ratio’s low initial level allows it to remain below 40 percent of
GDP. Moreover, external debt remains at less than 20 percent of GDP by the end of the projection
period, while the share of short-term debt is exceptionally low. Thus, rollover risks are limited and
debt metrics are relatively insensitive to changes in risk parameters.
30. The main external risk over the medium term would be a sustained decline in energy
prices (Annex 3). Prices for Trinidad and Tobago’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports have held up
well as it shifts its exports from the United States to Asia, Europe and Latin America.13 Technological
changes along with the development of a significant LNG export capacity from the United States
could pose a long-term threat if it significantly expanded global natural gas supplies. However, local
producers are confident that demand for natural gas will continue to outstrip supply.
31. There are significant elements of conservatism in the medium-term projections. Energy
price projections already embody market expectations about the impact of the shale revolution.
Moreover, staff projections are based on equally weighted (low) U.S. and (high) Asian gas prices,
even though Trinidadian natural gas is no longer sold to the United States. Estimated energy
reserves, based on past energy audits, appear conservative given the recent pick up in investor
interest in the sector.
13 The global energy market for natural gas remains significantly fragmented, with benchmark prices in the U.S.
averaging around $4 in 2013, while prices in Japan averaged around $17 in 2013.
Medium-Term Macroeconomic Framework (Baseline Scenario)
(In percent of GDP, unless specified otherwise)
Est. Projections
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Real GDP growth (in percent) -4.4 0.2 -2.6 1.2 1.6 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7
Energy -1.8 3.2 -3.9 -1.0 0.2 2.0 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9
Non-energy 1/ -6.1 -1.8 -1.6 2.8 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3
Inflation (end of period) 1.3 13.4 5.3 7.2 5.6 3.7 2.4 3.0 2.3 3.1 3.1
Revenue 2/ 28.6 34.1 32.3 29.7 30.1 29.6 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.0
Energy 14.5 18.4 19.0 16.6 15.6 15.2 14.8 14.2 13.7 13.3 12.9
Non-energy 14.2 15.7 13.2 13.0 14.5 14.5 14.2 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.1
Expenditure 34.2 33.9 32.4 30.7 33.6 31.1 32.6 32.8 33.0 33.3 33.5
Current 27.9 29.0 28.0 26.6 28.9 27.9 28.4 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.2
Capital expenditures and net lending 6.3 4.9 4.4 4.1 4.7 3.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3
Overall fiscal balance -5.6 0.1 -0.2 -1.1 -3.5 -1.5 -3.7 -4.2 -4.6 -5.1 -5.5
Overall fiscal non-energy balance -20.1 -18.2 -19.2 -17.7 -19.1 -16.6 -18.5 -18.4 -18.3 -18.4 -18.4
External current account balance 8.5 20.3 12.4 5.0 11.8 11.5 10.5 9.7 9.2 9.0 8.7
Central government debt 3/ 14.8 18.0 16.2 21.0 16.0 16.5 20.5 24.5 28.8 33.4 37.7
Public sector debt 3/ 30.6 35.8 33.4 37.2 30.7 30.9 34.6 38.5 42.6 47.0 51.1
Net of HSF deposits 4/ 16.7 17.8 15.4 18.6 11.9 12.3 15.6 18.7 22.2 25.9 29.6
Gross official reserves (US$ millions) 8,652 9,070 9,823 9,201 9,986 10,430 10,635 10,750 10,832 10,962 11,015
In months of imports 14.1 15.8 11.9 11.6 11.7 12.7 12.8 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.3
Sources: Ministry of Finance; Central Statistics Office; and Fund staff estimates and projections.
1/ Includes VAT and Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured (FISIM).
2/ Fiscal data is central government unless otherwise specified and refers to the fiscal year ending in September.
3/ Excluding debt issued for sterilization.
4/ Starting in 2013, assumes no additional contributions to the HSF.TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
10 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
32. The potential for spillovers from instability within the Caribbean is uncertain. Trade
links are limited, but there are significant gaps in knowledge about financial links.14 The Caribbean
Regional Financial Project will shed light on these links, with results expected in late 2014.
33. Domestic risks are likely to the upside. The baseline, which is based on current policies,
assumes neither fiscal consolidation nor significant structural reform. While the electoral cycle
suggests prospects for either are limited in the coming year, the authorities have set broad goals to
achieve both over the medium-term, Once implemented, policy reforms could serve as near-term
headwinds, but would also put the country on a more sustainable trajectory, help restore private
sector confidence and enhance competiveness and potential growth in the non-energy sector. On
the downside, failure to address an actuarial gap in the public pension system in the long term
would pose an increasing contingent fiscal burden.
POLICY DISCUSSIONS
The time is drawing near for a tightening of policies as the business cycle turns.
34. Staff noted the time may be drawing near for policy consolidation. Excess capacity in
the labor market has fallen with the unemployment rate dipping to 3.7 percent in 2013 Q1 and with
relatively solid growth since then. Although there appears to be significant underemployment
among low-skilled government workers, employers report shortages of skilled labor, which could
pressure wages higher.15 Core inflation remains low, but staff advised the authorities to remain
vigilant for incipient inflationary pressures in view of labor market developments, and the recent
pick-up in credit for consumer and real estate lending.
35. Fiscal policy is being tightened in FY 2013/14, but staff cautioned against excess
reliance on ad hoc measures and on raising dividends from state-owned enterprises. While the
government should reap rewards from its ownership of profitable enterprises, staff cautioned that
excess reliance on such dividends could, in the long-run, undermine company finances. Staff
welcomed the authorities’ intention to maintain discipline on current spending in the run-up to 2015
elections.
36. Staff pointed to some indicators that suggest tightening monetary policy fairly soon.
These include the fall in the unemployment rate, increases in credit to consumers and for real estate
and the shift in interest rate differentials in favor of U.S. dollar rates.
14 Of the eight licensed commercial banks, three are subsidiaries of large Canadian banks, which, along with the two
large indigenous banks, have extensive operations across the Caribbean region. Banks have foreign country exposure
of about 10 percent of total assets, of which about 40 percent is to Caribbean countries. The two largest domestically
owned banks (Republic Bank and First Citizens Bank) have substantial operations in the Caribbean: the former has
subsidiaries in Barbados, the Cayman Islands, Grenada, Guyana and St. Lucia, while First Citizens has operations in
Barbados, Costa Rica, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
15 In an inaugural business conditions index, released by the CBTT in April 2014, 17 percent of respondents reported
a shortage of skilled labor as a constraint to business. TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 11
37. The CBTT will have to consider how to tighten monetary policy. Given already high
excess liquidity, a repo rate hike would not work via dampening banks’ demand for liquidity, but it
could signal banks to raise the structure of interest rates. However, if banks do not follow suit, high
growth in consumer and real estate credit could continue. Thus, staff advised that the CBTT should
continue to closely monitor inflation and risks in the consumer and mortgage sectors and be
prepared to tighten prudential standards if necessary, along with interest rate hikes.
38. The authorities agreed with staff’s diagnosis of the conditions under which monetary
policy should be tightened. However, they felt that prudential standards were already sufficiently
conservative, notably with respect to mortgages and that there are no signs of incipient credit
deterioration. At the same time, supervisors have been advised to remain vigilant to prevent any
relaxation of current lending standards. While they noted that a significantly faster than expected
normalization of the monetary policy stance in the United States would force an undesirable pace of
tightening of their own stance, they expressed confidence that the pace of normalization would be
gradual enough not to be disruptive.
39. The CBTT will have to contend with a structural liquidity overhang for the foreseeable
future. For the moment, the CBTT has little choice but to continue to absorb liquidity using the
range of instruments at its disposal. However, the problem should ultimately be tackled at its source
with a move towards durable fiscal surpluses and structural reforms to encourage private
investment. The authorities agreed with the assessment, but are optimistic that business investment
will soon pick up.
40. The reported shortages of foreign exchange raise renewed concerns. The problem is at
root that the CBTT determines both the price of foreign exchange (within a narrow margin), and the
residual supply to the market. When the CBTT is caught by unanticipated mismatches in supply and
demand, foreign exchange shortages can result. In the past, shortages have been addressed
relatively quickly through increased allocations in future central bank sales. However, shortages in
the most recent episode appeared to be more persistent, although there has been no concrete
evidence that a parallel market in foreign exchange has arisen. In late May, 2014, the CBTT
responded to the shortages with a sale of US $200 million into the market, bringing total sales for
2014 to US $610 million with the objective of meeting existing estimated demand queues. The CBTT
also agreed with the Bankers Association of Trinidad and Tobago to further improvements in the
distribution of foreign exchange. The CBTT believes that these combined actions will help to restore
normalcy to the market and eliminate accumulated, unsatisfied demand.
41. The current system of foreign exchange allocation has imposed easily avoidable costs,
despite the high level of foreign exchange reserves. Uncertainty about foreign exchange
availability has led to an inefficient allocation of foreign exchange as it is hoarded (as evidenced in
the buildup of U.S. dollar deposits in the local banking system), further exacerbating the shortages.
If, notwithstanding the recent actions of the CBTT, shortages recur, Trinidadian businesses may
suffer damage from being unable to pay their foreign suppliers, and those parties unable to
purchase foreign exchange from authorized dealers at the official exchange rate could be
incentivized to pay a premium to purchase foreign exchange elsewhere. TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
12 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
42. A lasting solution to the shortages requires that the CBTT introduce greater flexibility
to the foreign exchange market. This could be achieved through an unconditional commitment to
meet foreign exchange demand or by allowing greater flexibility in the pricing mechanism (e.g. by
widening the limits on the exchange rate). Either way would likely restore confidence in the foreign
exchange market, eliminate shortages and hoarding, and provide authorities a rapidly responding
barometer of foreign exchange supply and demand conditions, thus providing useful signals about
macroeconomic policy. It may be that recent shortages are masking budding balance of payments
pressures, stemming from high government subsidies and transfers and bank credit for imported
goods (notably automobiles). Should there be continued pressures for foreign exchange,
notwithstanding the changes introduced by the CBTT in late May, a failure to introduce greater
flexibility into the foreign exchange market could lead to renewed shortages, indicating the
existence of an exchange restriction.
43. The authorities disagreed that foreign exchange shortages were a serious problem.
They believed that shortages were temporary and that concerns have been overblown. They also
believed changes to the system introduced on April 1 should be given more time to work, and that
there was sufficient flexibility in the current system, since the amounts to be auctioned off can be
changed over time. They oppose an unconditional commitment to meet all foreign exchange
demand, given their goal to continue to build foreign exchange reserves for the foreseeable future.
However, they have recently acknowledged that the changes on April 1 had not eliminated
shortages, and hence they took the further actions noted above.
Over the medium term, the fiscal position should move back into surplus.
44. Although growth is reviving, achieving a sustained pick up will require more balanced
growth. First, the country has achieved only limited success in diversifying its economy outside the
energy sector. Second, while data limitations do not allow for definitive conclusions, non-energy
growth appears to be concentrated in government and private consumption, rather than in the
investment required to enhance potential growth.
45. Staff affirmed its view that the fiscal
position should move towards surpluses
over the medium term. Saving and investing
the substantial resources extracted from the
energy sector would spread that resource
wealth over future generations. Within those
structural surpluses, spending should shift
from public consumption towards investment,
and fiscal consolidation should be based on
policy changes that durably improve the
structure of non energy-based revenues and
spending, rather than ad hoc measures.
0
5
10
15
20
2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048
Non-energy CG Fiscal Deficit/GDP
Baseline scenario
Active scenario
Annuity to draw wealth by 2050
Permanent income
Perm. income (with pensions)
Source: IMF staff estimates. TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 13
46. Staff recommended quickly moving to start ending fuel subsidies. Cheap fuels induce
excessive reliance on automobiles, leading to efficiency-killing traffic jams and environmental costs,
and disproportionately benefit the well-off. The government prefers to first make compressed
natural gas (CNG) widely available as a substitute for gasoline and diesel, while encouraging
conversion of vehicles to CNG use, before removing fuel subsidies. Staff noted, however, that
concurrent reduction of fuel subsidies would boost incentives to switch to CNG.
47. Staff welcomed the intention to rationalize social programs, notably through the
creation of a central benefits registry. This would help detect fraud and ensure that benefits are
provided as efficiently as possible. Staff also advocated more ex-post monitoring of program
effectiveness, given that many programs are not currently evaluated.
48. Staff encouraged making revenue generation more buoyant, efficient and equitable,
notably by broadening the non-energy tax base. The government has already started to adopt
some measures including property taxation and reforming transfer pricing. Reform of the VAT to
minimize exemptions and zero-ratings is critical to improve its efficiency and equity, and to ensure a
level playing field across economic activities. Other reforms such as redressing the erosion of excise
tax bases and enhancing personal and corporate income tax revenues could also be considered, if
needed. Finally, staff cautioned that tax incentives should be granted sparingly, with full
accountability and periodic reviews of such “tax-expenditures”.
49. As in previous discussions, the staff has developed a long-term fiscal path (active
scenario) that illustrates the impact of this set of policies through 2019. This includes (i) tax
measures that yield 3½ percent of GDP (more than compensating for the gradual decline in energy
revenues); (ii) current expenditure reductions of 4 percentage points of GDP, mainly through
reducing fuel subsidies and better targeting social programs and other transfers, and (iii) increasing
capital expenditures by 1¼ percent of GDP.
50. Staff continued to advocate setting fiscal policy in a long-term context, managed as
part of a national balance sheet. Thus, sustained transfers into the HSF should be conditioned on a
return to fiscal surpluses. Staff inquired whether HSF resources might be drawn down in the event of
an adverse shock to energy prices, but the authorities maintained that it was the intent to continue
building the HSF, emphasizing the saving aspect of the fund more than the stabilization aspect.
Actuarial reports suggest that the national insurance system is not yet on a sound long-term
footing, posing a sizable contingent fiscal liability. While welcoming the proposed expansion of the
system to include the self employed, further parametric reforms of the employee scheme will be
needed, whether on contributions or benefits, including possibly phasing in later retirement times as
people continue to live longer. TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
14 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
51. The authorities agreed with the need to continue medium-term fiscal consolidation
and to reallocate spending. They pointed to the revenue measures already in train and noted
preparatory work will be done to reverse erosion in the VAT base caused by extensive zero-ratings
and exemptions, though actual VAT reform is unlikely to take place in the next year or two. A
number of other measures will also be considered in time, including, on the expenditure side, to rein
in transfers and subsidies. The authorities maintained their position that while it is desirable to run
fiscal surpluses, they would continue making transfers to the HSF solely by considering excess
budgetary revenues from the energy sector. On pensions the authorities noted that, in addition to
extending the system to include the self employed, the National Insurance Board of Trinidad and
Tobago had adopted many corrective measures proposed under the latest actuarial review, and was
reducing the interval between reviews from 5 to 3 years to increase the scope for more frequent
parametric reforms.
Structural measures will be critical to achieve more balanced growth
52. Staff encouraged the authorities to continue to pursue an aggressive program of
structural reforms. These will be necessary to encourage growth in the non-energy sector. At
present, the business community reports that there are a number of critical impediments to
investment in that sector. These include an inefficient public service that slows government decisionmaking,
excessive regulations that inhibit business formation, governance concerns that lead to
perceptions of a non-level playing field, labor market distortions that inhibit human capital
formation and flexibility, and serious data shortcomings that subject business planning to great
uncertainties.
Medium-Term Macroeconomic Framework (Active Scenario)
(In percent of GDP, unless specified otherwise)
Est. Projections
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Real GDP growth (in percent) -4.4 0.2 -2.6 1.2 1.6 2.3 1.6 1.1 1.3 2.0 2.2
Energy -1.8 3.2 -3.9 -1.0 0.2 2.0 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9
Non-energy 1/ -6.1 -1.8 -1.6 2.8 2.5 2.6 1.7 1.2 1.5 2.7 3.0
Inflation (end of period) 1.3 13.4 5.3 7.2 5.6 3.7 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.3
Revenue 2/ 28.6 34.1 32.3 29.7 30.1 29.6 30.6 31.6 31.4 31.4 31.5
Energy 14.5 18.4 19.0 16.6 15.6 15.2 14.8 14.2 13.8 13.3 12.9
Non-energy 14.2 15.7 13.2 13.0 14.5 14.5 15.8 17.4 17.6 18.0 18.6
Expenditure 34.2 33.9 32.4 30.7 33.6 31.1 32.6 31.7 30.9 30.0 29.9
Current 27.9 29.0 28.0 26.6 28.9 27.9 27.9 26.5 25.4 24.5 24.4
Capital expenditures and net lending 6.3 4.9 4.4 4.1 4.7 3.2 4.8 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.5
Overall fiscal balance -5.6 0.1 -0.2 -1.1 -3.5 -1.5 -2.0 -0.1 0.5 1.4 1.6
Overall fiscal non-energy balance -20.1 -18.2 -19.2 -17.7 -19.1 -16.6 -16.9 -14.4 -13.3 -11.9 -11.3
External current account balance 8.5 20.3 12.4 5.0 11.8 11.5 11.4 11.6 11.6 11.9 12.2
Central government debt 3/ 14.8 18.0 16.2 21.0 16.0 16.5 18.9 19.0 18.5 17.8 16.8
Public sector debt 3/ 30.6 35.8 33.4 37.2 30.7 30.9 33.0 33.0 32.3 31.5 30.2
Net of HSF deposits 16.7 17.8 15.4 18.6 11.9 12.3 14.0 13.1 11.6 9.1 6.1
Gross official reserves (US$ millions) 8,652 9,070 9,823 9,201 9,986 10,408 10,915 11,584 12,409 13,441 14,448
In months of imports 14.1 15.8 11.9 11.6 11.7 13.5 14.4 15.2 16.1 16.5 16.2
Sources: Ministry of Finance; Central Statistics Office; and Fund staff estimates and projections.
1/ Includes VAT and Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured (FISIM).
2/ Fiscal data is central government unless otherwise specified and refers to the fiscal year ending in September.
3/ Excluding debt issued for sterilization. TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 15
53. Staff welcomed progress in financial sector reforms and removing the impediments to
doing business, but the public service remains beset with a range of serious problems. Staffing
in the public service is administratively cumbersome, subject to excessive judicial challenges and too
centralized. Staff urged the government to revisit legislative changes that had amplified the
litigiousness of personnel decisions and to explore ways to give greater autonomy in such decisions
to government agencies.
54. In addition, government bodies continue to proliferate. While often well-intended, such
proliferation leads to overlapping mandates, severe coordination challenges, and quite likely, overstaffing.
Staff noted that a serious effort to streamline the overall structure of government and
publically-owned bodies could yield substantial gains in efficiency.
55. Other important legislative reforms should be fast-tracked. Trinidad and Tobago
continues to fall short on governance indicators and perceptions of corruption and staff supported
calls from the business community for rapid progress on procurement reform. The government
should also move to establish appropriate insolvency frameworks, including corporate bankruptcy
and bank resolution legislation.
56. Staff expressed concerns that government temporary employment programs distort
the labor market. While data are insufficient to establish a strong causal link, there is a prima facie
case that employment in these programs is competitive with private sector jobs since they require
participants to work much less than the officially required hours.
57. Staff echoed widely-held views that social transfers and make-work programs may be
inculcating a sense of dependency on the part of the beneficiaries of those programs. While
social safety nets are critical to protecting the most vulnerable segments of society, inclusive growth
should be promoted through the provision of skills demanded by the economy and improved job
matching. Some combination of carrots and sticks may be needed to help move participants into
productive private sector employment, including via a greater role for training.
58. In the absence of concrete progress in lasting reforms to remedy data shortcomings,
data lags are growing, rendering surveillance ever harder. Staff urged the authorities to take
quick action to provide the CSO with the resources needed to begin to rebuild its capacity.
59. The authorities broadly agreed with the staff’s views on the need for wide-ranging
reforms. However, they cautioned that some problems had proved resistant to past attempts at
reform, and that meeting reform challenges will take time. For now, they pointed to a specific
emphasis on easing impediments to doing business. They did not see the temporary employment
programs as particularly distortionary to the labor market, pointing out that participants in those
programs do not have the skills to work in the private sector, and noting that these programs were
increasingly oriented towards providing skills-training, which would improve prospects for more
inclusive growth. They continue to acknowledge the problems with statistics and agreed that
strengthening the national statistical infrastructure was critical, although they believe the plan to
alleviate resource shortages on a temporary basis via a loan of staff from the CBTT will make some
difference. TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
16 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
60. Staff welcomed multi-agency efforts under way to prepare for the upcoming FATF
assessment of AML/CFT in early 2015. Continued focus and allocation of resources will be needed
in the coming months to ensure that the country meets the 2012 FATF standards.
STAFF APPRAISAL
61. In the near term, and recognizing that severe data limitations make any assessments
challenging, numerous signs point to a need to soon tighten the macroeconomic policy
stance. Fiscal policy is already being tightened this fiscal year, but in significant part through ad hoc
measures. Thus, there is a need to design and implement fiscal policies that durably improve the
structure of non-energy based revenues and spending, although some measures are in train.
Consideration will also have to be given to starting to tighten monetary policy, especially as the
normalization of the monetary policy stance in the United States draws nearer. In view of already
existing excess liquidity and a weak transmission mechanism, consideration should be given to
tightening already conservative prudential standards should signs of froth emerge in specific asset
markets.
62. Trinidad and Tobago is finally embarking on sustained growth, but diversifying the
economic base remains the most critical medium-term challenge. The recent strong renewal of
interest in exploration and development in the energy sector along with new technologies and the
opening up of potentially “game-changing” deepwater acreage holds out the promise of significant
increases in non-renewable resources. Nonetheless, sea-changes are continuing in the global energy
industry, and prudence suggests the government should be conservative in its long-term
assumptions about the sector’s potential.
63. Diversification will require reorienting government expenditure towards supporting
investment in the non-energy sector. To date, government spending has been concentrated on
supporting current consumption through an excessively generous and poorly targeted set of
subsidies and transfers, notably, regressive and expensive fuel subsidies. There is ample scope for
revenue and expenditure reforms to move to structural fiscal surpluses and create the fiscal space
for increasing public investment, while protecting the most vulnerable members of society. Further
parametric reforms will be needed to put the National Insurance System onto a sustainable longterm
footing, although there are no solvency concerns over the medium term.
64. Trinidad and Tobago’s external position remains healthy, with a large current account
surplus and a high level of external buffers. Although standard methodologies indicate a large
degree of overvaluation using official inflation data, it is difficult to conclude that there is a
significant exchange rate misalignment given the severe historical bias in measured inflation.
65. The government will need to build on recent successes in implementing structural
reforms to unlock the country’s full growth potential. There has been significant progress in
easing the impediments to doing business, although more remains to be done. However, there are
still critical needs to improve the efficiency of the public service and the functioning of labor
markets. TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 17
66. There has been much progress in financial reform, but there may still be a need to
introduce greater flexibility into the foreign exchange market. Important measures have been
made to modernize financial regulation and bring systemically important non-bank financial
institutions into the regulatory perimeter. However, the foreign exchange allocation system has led
to an apparently widespread and persistent recurrence of foreign exchange shortages that, while
recently eliminated according to the authorities, could indicate the existence of an exchange
restriction if they recur. It is hoped that the recent changes introduced by the CBTT will introduce
the required degree of flexibility into the foreign exchange allocation system to durably eliminate
these shortages. Staff will continue to monitor developments closely and follow up with the
authorities as needed to determine if an exchange restriction has arisen.
67. Critically, the lack of reliable and timely data is an overarching problem that hampers
public and private decision-making. Since the last Article IV discussions, there has been little
concrete progress in implementing lasting reforms to remedy data shortcomings. The CSO still has
no permanent quarters after its building was condemned last year and it remains starved of
resources, leading statistics production to seriously lag in critical areas. Data shortcomings now
severely constrain staff’s ability to conduct economic surveillance. Moreover, aside from the plan to
help alleviate resource shortages on a temporary basis, there are no concrete signs of implementing
an action plan to resolve the problems at the statistical agency, and there is therefore a critical and
urgent need to provide the CSO the resources needed to fulfill its mission.
68. It is proposed that the next Article IV consultation take place on the standard
12-month cycle.
De Dragon wrote:Habit7 wrote:I pass up that comment every time I see it. I work for a Fortune 500 company with colleagues from all around the world. Only small minded trinis argue about who went UWI/UTT/COSTAATT, it is as relevant as boasting about your high school in university. Nobody really cares, once you have the accredited qualifications and can do the work. Your UWI is another man's COSTAATT.
Yet here you are, day in, day out taking chain up fro zr and UML
UML wrote:being a PNM costaatt candidate, whose criteria for entry is RACE and not qualification....im sure u conveniently forget how MR ROWLEY insisted and put measures in place so that costaatt entry standards needed to be lowered for the little dunce black boys to get in.
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