The official tropical weather thread 2017

[bluefete]

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... -caribbean

A tropical disturbance, Invest 97L, between Africa and the Windward Islands, could develop into the next Atlantic named storm later this week, and may pose a threat into next week in the Caribbean basin and possibly beyond.

For now, this tropical wave is located roughly halfway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa. It's a tropical "wave" because winds at the surface do not exhibit a closed low-pressure circulation, but rather shift from northeasterly ahead of the wave to southeasterly behind the wave.

The National Hurricane Center has tentatively scheduled the first Hurricane Hunter mission into Invest 97L for Tuesday afternoon.

First Stop: Windward Islands

Steered by the subtropical ridge of high pressure known as the Bermuda-Azores high, Invest 97L will arrive in the Windward Islands, bringing showers, some locally heavy rain and gusty winds by Wednesday, according to our latest forecast.


Five Day Possible Formation Area

The National Hurricane Center has given this system a high chance for formation into a tropical depression over the next 2 to 5 day period as it nears the Lesser Antilles into the Caribbean. The next named storm in the Atlantic would be Matthew.

It should be noted this disturbance is starting out at a fairly low latitude, south of 10 degrees. Therefore, showers and gusty winds are expected in such locations as St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, perhaps even coastal Venezuela later this week.


Caribbean Questions

By Thursday, the system, either still a tropical wave, depression, or Tropical Storm Matthew, will move into the eastern Caribbean Sea.

Again, given the potential far southern track, there could be rain and gusty winds in the typically drier "ABC Islands" – Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao – Thursday.

Beyond that, uncertainty is high on this system's future.

There are currently west to northwest winds aloft over the Caribbean Sea, providing some wind shear, which is typically hostile to the development and intensification of tropical cyclones.


Current Satellite, Wind Shear
Areas of high wind shear are shown in the purple contours.


However, that wind shear is not much stronger than average for late September. Assuming the shear diminishes, the "future Matthew" may be able to intensify in the Caribbean Sea.

(MORE: Just Because It's Fall Doesn't Mean We Shouldn't Pay Attention to the Tropics)

The reason that this tropical system has generated so much interest is that some model guidance has been indicating for several days that an intensifying tropical cyclone would be in the Caribbean Sea.

However, as The Weather Channel hurricane expert, Michael Lowry eloquently put it in a recent blog post:

"The science tells us there’s no skill in seven-to-ten day forecasts of tropical systems that haven’t formed (like invests)."

Therefore, it's much too early to tell what other areas of the Caribbean Sea may be impacted by this system and whether any mainland U.S. locations will eventually be threatened.

Since we have plenty of time to watch this system, check back with us at weather.com for the latest updates.

Now is a good time to make sure you're prepared, before the storm. Are you #HurricaneStrong?

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

The computer models this morning are putting it north of T&T

[S_2NR]

If that hits Trinidad sheit will be epic. Unfortunately I will not be back in Canada till after. Trinidad is a jokey country. No preparation, everyone will just wait till last minute and go wow. Littering is still a huge problem. Good luck Trinidad.

[Dizzy28]

Sucks to be located where Hispaniola and Jamaica are!!!

[shake d livin wake d dead]

Update

[shotta 20]

If that hits Trinidad sheit will be epic. Unfortunately I will not be back in Canada till after. Trinidad is a jokey country. No preparation, everyone will just wait till last minute and go wow. Littering is still a huge problem. Good luck Trinidad.

Where d Firetruck allyuh so does come out from ???

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

If that hits Trinidad sheit will be epic. Unfortunately I will not be back in Canada till after. Trinidad is a jokey country. No preparation, everyone will just wait till last minute and go wow. Littering is still a huge problem. Good luck Trinidad.

Where d firetruck allyuh so does come out from ???

Canada apparently. He should have stayed.

[meccalli]

lol anyways,
take a look at the winds, seems to be headed down our way.
http://www.meteoearth.com/

[TriP]

223pm Monday - Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service

[pete]

Satellite images look like it's already swinging north.

[meccalli]

http://www.trinidadexpress.com/20160926 ... not-coming

A storm is NOT coming
...don't panic says chief met officer



“Armchair meteorologists” on social media have to stop spreading panic, because Trinidad and Tobago is not under any tropical storm, tropical depression, or tropical cyclone watch or warning.

This is the word from chief meteorologist at the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service (Met Office) Shakeer Baig, and chief executive officer (CEO) at the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Management (ODPM) Dr Stephen Ramroop.

According to Baig, the Met Office is monitoring a tropical wave with an associated area of low pressure which is now located near 1,800 kilometres east south east of the Windward Islands. The area of bad weather is located east of Trinidad and Tobago.

[.:PROZAC:..]

If that hits Trinidad sheit will be epic. Unfortunately I will not be back in Canada till after. Trinidad is a jokey country. No preparation, everyone will just wait till last minute and go wow. Littering is still a huge problem. Good luck Trinidad.

will have to keep an eye on my flight also coming in on the 30th /red eye. It should be good fun though as long as the power doesn't go out. Was there in 93 for Brett. total waste of time.

[S_2NR]

If that hits Trinidad sheit will be epic. Unfortunately I will not be back in Canada till after. Trinidad is a jokey country. No preparation, everyone will just wait till last minute and go wow. Littering is still a huge problem. Good luck Trinidad.

will have to keep an eye on my flight also coming in on the 30th /red eye. It should be good fun though as long as the power doesn't go out. Was there in 93 for Brett. total waste of time.

defer flight if you can i guess. there may be delays/cancellations. just guessing here depending on the severity of the situation in the region. good luck.

[joker]

Beat had some nice floods....

[joker]

Beat had some nice floods....

Sorry Brett

Beat had some nice floods....

[bluefete]

Updated 7:05 p.m.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/vi ... itor-picks

Which country is most prominent in the video????

And the odpm man in the news says don't worry.

Okay then. I won't worry but I will prepare, just in case.

[DTAC]

The amount of people I heard today say, "what storm?" is shameful.

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

the models are pointing all over the place

but this one is crazy

http://wfla.com/2016/09/25/tracking-the ... caribbean/

[shake d livin wake d dead]

Honestly odpm should have people taking precautionary measures just in case...telling people doh worry is nothing serious is total bs...just have a look at those graphics...would really like to see our response to chasos after this thing pass through.

[PapaC]

If they have people jumping up and down by saying the sky is falling you know people would still not be happy.

[bluesclues]

http://www.trinidadexpress.com/20160926 ... not-coming

Man just call allyuh ah set of armchair meteorologists.

Allyuh goin and take that.. sitting down? Lol

[aaron17]

Budget day and storm approaching ..coincidence?

[Mark!]

GOD IAAA TRINI. GOD ISSSA TRINI. ISSSSA KEWLIEE

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

Still a tropical wave and it has moved further north

[ST Auto]

[ST Auto]

[goalpost]

so...basically...we gonna ded

[cherrypopper]

In a nutshell yes. .

[.:PROZAC:..]

this is gonna be some good fun. Is that bad I excited?

[teems1]

So are we under a storm watch as yet?

If it will impact us late tonight into Wednesday morning, shouldn't we have heard something from the Met Office by now?