The official tropical weather thread 2020

[shake d livin wake d dead]

Lets see how this goes

[maj. tom]

Well it could be worse than Karen from last year.
http://floodlist.com/america/trinidad-t ... ember-2019


btw, where sells the plastic blue water barrels? I really need one to store some clean water for flood times.

[redmanjp]

Well it could be worse than Karen from last year.
http://floodlist.com/america/trinidad-t ... ember-2019


btw, where sells the plastic blue water barrels? I really need one to store some clean water for flood times.

if it hit we as a strong storm i hope the shelters providing masks when everybody crowded together

[shake d livin wake d dead]

Well it could be worse than Karen from last year.
http://floodlist.com/america/trinidad-t ... ember-2019


btw, where sells the plastic blue water barrels? I really need one to store some clean water for flood times.

A place in sooman avenue malabar has them selling for $200

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

National Hurricane Centre estimates the arrival of tropical-storm force winds to Trinidad around Friday night into Saturday morning

[redmanjp]

^assuming it doh go north that is

normal practice is to issue watches 48 hrs in advance so we'll see by tomorrow night.

[shake d livin wake d dead]

By tomorrow morning that gonna swing north

[redmanjp]

probability of tropical storm force winds is only 5-10% for trinidad, but 10-20% for tobago

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

There is a mass of Saharan dust north of the tropical depression that may affect it

[matr1x]

We will get outerbands

[shake d livin wake d dead]

Already swinging north....might just get ah lil rain ....nothing much to talk about

[SPK1983]

Already swinging north....might just get ah lil rain ....nothing much to talk about

It's actually straightening out, not swinging north.

First advisory had its directional angle at 300 degrees. Since the 11pm advisory however, it's leveled out to 285 degrees, and the models are indicating it will likely hold this path for the next 24-48 hours.

With that said, I do believe that we will most likely get feeder band interactions. Tobago may be in the firing line however.

[brickman]

Windy app is predicting a direct hit on Tobago.

[Dizzy28]

Windy app is predicting a direct hit on Tobago.

Finally organized enough to be named

[fokhan_96]

Wonder if trinis started panic buying yet or they waiting until Saturday morning.

[redmanjp]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT2+shtml/221248.shtml?

Tropical Storm Gonzalo Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
850 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN BECOMES TROPICAL STORM GONZALO...

Satellite data indicate that Tropical Depression Seven has
strengthened and is now Tropical Storm Gonzalo with 45 mph
(75 km/h) winds. The intensity forecast will be updated in the
regular advisory at 11 AM AST...1500 UTC.

SUMMARY OF 850 AM AST...1250 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.9N 43.1W
ABOUT 1250 MI...2010 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Dave]

Pricesmart was laughing all the way to the bank experiencing growth in their Barbados and Trinidad markets the late 1st QTR to 2 nd QTR this year.

[Dizzy28]

TS Gonzalo is the earliest ever 7th named storm in the Atlantic

[shake d livin wake d dead]

Just ah lil rain, strong winds etc...nothing to worry much about

[killercow]

I doh want this storm anywhere near Trinidad (because surely we'll flood among other things). But then I really wanna take that entire storm and shove it down all WASA dams.

[redmanjp]

Just ah lil rain, strong winds etc...nothing to worry much about

ppl roof does blow off in ah lil 'freak storm' though- anything more and is problems fuh a lot of ppl

[shake d livin wake d dead]

Just ah lil rain, strong winds etc...nothing to worry much about

ppl roof does blow off in ah lil 'freak storm' though- anything more and is problems fuh a lot of ppl

Ah trying to be hopefull bai

[Cantmis]

Gonzalo fete ?

[redmanjp]

Gonzalo fete ?

if u want to get charged under covid regulations sure

[redmanjp]

hurricane by tomorow
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/221438.shtml?

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
1100 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020

...GONZALO CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.9N 43.6W
ABOUT 1205 MI...1935 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was
located near latitude 9.9 North, longitude 43.6 West. Gonzalo is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A general westward
motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Gonzalo is expected to become a hurricane
by Thursday.

Gonzalo is a small tropical cyclone, as tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward only up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

[sMASH]

how the wind profile looking on its route, any kinda upper level wind sheer(sp) that could break it up?

[fokhan_96]

Something really strange about this. Here is the statement that was issued by nhc on monday...

"a weak area of low pressure and its associated tropical wave are located roughly midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for development of this system during the next couple of days while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic. Late this week, however, less favorable conditions should limit additional development."

...And now possible hurricane development . Things changing real fast.

[PariaMan]

Is the weather bai it happens

[bluefete]

Just ah lil rain, strong winds etc...nothing to worry much about

I hope you are so right.

But then we had a l'il rain and some breeze about 2 weeks ago and look at damage it caused. Roof blown off etc.

[bluefete]

Something really strange about this. Here is the statement that was issued by nhc on monday...

"a weak area of low pressure and its associated tropical wave are located roughly midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for development of this system during the next couple of days while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic. Late this week, however, less favorable conditions should limit additional development."

...And now possible hurricane development . Things changing real fast.

Weather forecasting is an inexact science. How many times have Seigonie gotten it wrong (well, the Met office anyway)?