THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL WEATHER THREAD 2025

[maj. tom]

The storm chasers at Carriacou got back online.
Galvanize roof just ripping away like paper.

Nobody house safe in that kind of wind. Dunno how we wudda cope if that happen here.

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

^ wow that's intense!

4:45 PM - As Hurricane #Beryl moves west, thunderstorms off the northern coast of Venezuela are being pulled northward as forecast, producing frequent lightning, locally heavy rainfall and possibly gusty winds. These thunderstorms are forecast to move across southern Trinidad as we near nightfall, with intense activity possible in the Gulf of Paria.

Forecast: https://ttweathercenter.com/2024/06/30/ ... 20Tropical

An Adverse Weather Alert is in effect for T&T until 6 PM: https://ttweathercenter.com/2024/07/01/ ... es-tobago/

Meanwhile, feeder bands trailing Beryl are producing frequent lightning, gusty winds up to 74 KM/H, and locally heavy rainfall across St. Lucia, Martinique, and Dominica

[matix]

Wait nah what kind of iron man wakanda technology ting Barbados using here!!

Yuh made me laugh with that

[redmanjp]

Adverse Weather Alert extended till tomorrow.

Updated Issuance time #10 (local time) Mon, Jul 1, 2024 5:34 PM
Start date (local time) Mon, Jul 1, 2024 2:25 PM
End date (local time) Tue, Jul 2, 2024 10:00 AM
Headline Adverse Weather Alert #3 – YELLOW LEVEL

Description
There is a medium to high chance (60-70%) of isolated heavy showers or thunderstorm activity, accompanied by gusty winds near 55 km/h. These wind gusts can further agitate sea conditions. Street flooding is likely during heavy downpours and landslides/landslips are possible in areas so prone.

Instructions
Monitor weather conditions before venturing out. Secure loose outdoor objects and livestock. Mariners should continue to exercise extra caution. Do not venture into flood waters. Monitor official news sources and weather updates from www.metoffice.gov.tt. Follow instructions of government officials.

Area description
Trinidad & Tobago and surrounding coastal waters

[maj. tom]

[Gladiator]

Wait nah what kind of iron man wakanda technology ting Barbados using here!!

Yuh made me laugh with that

Meanwhile MET Office website was down the whole time

[redmanjp]

Wait nah what kind of iron man wakanda technology ting Barbados using here!!

Yuh made me laugh with that

Meanwhile MET Office website was down the whole time

was up the few times i checked it tho

[redmanjp]

beryl keeps getting stronger, nearing Cat. 5

Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
800 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND BERYL EVEN STRONGER AS IT MOVES
QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 64.0W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM ESE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 910 MI...1460 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

[pugboy]

heavy rain in pos now

[abbow]

since 230 in south....heavy rain...

[brickman]

That was a mini storm tbh,expected it when beryl passed but it never happened.Radar showing clouds building & hearing thunder from the east & south.

[bluefete]

[shake d livin wake d dead]

Beryl now a cat 5...records broken!

[maj. tom]

It starting to look like Jamaica lining up for licks. Clocking >265 km/h winds right now.

[Dohplaydat]

It starting to look like Jamaica lining up for licks. Clocking >265 km/h winds right now.

Damn this is going to be a major disaster wherever it hits

[paid_influencer]

might blow out to sea and dissipate, blood of jesus covering the islands amen

[shake d livin wake d dead]

Watching the aftermath at Carricacou... Literally flattened!

5 months to go in the season and we already have a cat 5 creating history. Be prepared folks!

[abbow]

anyone remember what happened to Grenada back in 2004 i think it was?

[Dizzy28]

On a positive note the tropical wave behind Beryl which would have had a similar path seems to be dropping in it's percentage probability of developing into a TS or further.

7 day chance of development now 30%

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

On a positive note the tropical wave behind Beryl which would have had a similar path seems to be dropping in it's percentage probability of developing into a TS or further.

7 day chance of development now 30%

And the main set of cloud structure is already north of us

[sMASH]

It starting to look like Jamaica lining up for licks. Clocking >265 km/h winds right now.

Windy.com more or less saying the same ting.

But I thinking after Jamaica , it might turn up and cross Cuba instead of Yucatan peninsula .

Not willing to put money... I testing a hypothesis

[Dizzy28]

Scientists: Creates multiple models for predicting the path of Hurricanes using historical and current data, maths and computers
Smash: I have ah hypothesis!!!

[PariaMan]

A lot of computing power for several different models suggest this path .The most you can expect is slight deviations. Not as huge as what you are suggesting

[maj. tom]

[sMASH]

Scientists: Creates multiple models for predicting the path of Hurricanes using historical and current data, maths and computers
Smash: I have ah hypothesis!!!

A lot of computing power for several different models suggest this path .The most you can expect is slight deviations. Not as huge as what you are suggesting

I am NOT willing to put money at this point .

[paid_influencer]

mora mentioned in the live that meterologists do not predict weather. they forecast, which is a different thing to predicting.

A forecast refers to a calculation or an estimation which uses data from previous events, combined with recent trends to come up a future event outcome.

A prediction is an actual act of indicating that something will happen in the future with or without prior information.

so what smash did is make a prediction, which is different to what they meterologists do

i think predictions should be accompanied by self-bans, morally, if believed strong enough. many of my predictions come with a self ban if wrong

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

[sMASH]

mora mentioned in the live that meterologists do not predict weather. they forecast, which is a different thing to predicting.

A forecast refers to a calculation or an estimation which uses data from previous events, combined with recent trends to come up a future event outcome.

A prediction is an actual act of indicating that something will happen in the future with or without prior information.

so what smash did is make a prediction, which is different to what they meterologists do

i think predictions should be accompanied by self-bans, morally, if believed strong enough. many of my predictions come with a self ban if wrong

Hypothesis ...
I jess using tuner as a notary.

[pugboy]

allyuh saw yesenia vids ?
is she a forecaster or predictor?

[maj. tom]