THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL WEATHER THREAD 2025

[paid_influencer]

Now another one behind Beryl

two_atl_7d0-1.png

lol



going to plug in my rechargeable fan now

[mero]

Good thing is it looking like the Northern not getting much rain so not expecting much flooding if any

Passed on the EMR just now. Caura barely flowing so the Northern Range still dryish

Yea, rain up in the hills is a good way to know how bad the majority of the EWC and central gonna get it

[redmanjp]

Beryl is now a Hurricane according to NHC. Set to become a major (Cat 3) Hurricane when it hits the islands!
God be with them. And Tobago as well.

[maj. tom]

[redmanjp]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM AST Sat Jun 29 2024

...BERYL IS NOW A HURRICANE AND FORECAST TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE
TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 49.3W
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* St Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands
* Grenada

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Dominica
* Tobago

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor
the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings will likely
be required for portions of this area this evening.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 49.3 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h). A relatively quick
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected
to move across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued steady to rapid strengthening is
forecast, and Beryl is expected to become a dangerous major
hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area beginning Sunday night. Hurricane conditions are possible in
the hurricane watch areas Sunday night or Monday morning.
Devastating wind damage is expected where the eyewall of Beryl
moves through portions of the Windward Islands.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
areas by Monday morning.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore flow near where Beryl makes landfall in the hurricane
warning and watch areas. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands Sunday night into
Monday. This rainfall may cause flooding in vulnerable areas.

Showers and thunderstorms well north of Beryl may produce 1 to 4
inches of rain over portions of southeastern Puerto Rico Monday
night into Tuesday.

Rainfall from Beryl may impact portions of southern Hispaniola
Tuesday into Wednesday, with 2 to 6 inches of rain possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Beryl, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Beryl are expected to reach the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

[PariaMan]

Just post the link lol

[paid_influencer]

Beryl is now a Hurricane according to NHC. Set to become a major (Cat 3) Hurricane when it hits the islands!
God be with them. And Tobago as well.

mora says this is the first hurricane since 1933 to hit the islands in June.

season shaping up
massy had a good sale on toilet paper and paper rolls today. place rampack since opening
shoulda stock uppp

[K74T]

[paid_influencer]

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view ... -61.424,6z

Beryl has some size

[pugboy]

so the storm watch tobago was under today didn’t have a name?
and the real storm watch coming monday?

[redmanjp]

so the storm watch tobago was under today didn’t have a name?
and the real storm watch coming monday?

Today had a Tropical wave which was the reason an Adverse Weather Alert was issued which is now discontinued. Separate and apart from the Tropical Storm Watch for Tobago which is still in effect.

[redmanjp]

Most of the watches are now warnings including Tropical Storm Warning for Tobago which means higher chance of impact and within 36 hrs.

[pugboy]

most ppl associated both together today
guess they will realize monday is diff

Most of the watches are now warnings including Tropical Storm Warning for Tobago which means higher chance of impact and within 36 hrs.

[maj. tom]

So the new forecast cone is predicting it will be at least a Cat 3 Hurricane by 2am Monday before reaching Barbados. That's a monster. Gonna get the feeder bands here.

[redmanjp]

^ some of the islands in for some dangerous weather and major damage.

[pugboy]

from pic Duane posted, its is more than wide enough to give us a nice piece of rain coming and going
unless god is a trini and it swing north plenty tomorrow

So the new forecast cone is predicting it will be at least a Cat 3 Hurricane by 2am Monday before reaching Barbados. That's a monster. Gonna get the feeder bands here.

[redmanjp]

Them feeder bands like 10 times d size of Trinidad we definitely gonna get some heavy downpours and flood. And that's the size now - as it strengthens it gets bigger with Tropical Storm force winds further out from the center.

[PariaMan]

Maximum of 2 to 4 inches over north trinidad and Tobago expected .

Winds max in Trinidad expected 30

Wind max of 70 expected Tobago

Big issue will be wind in Tobago

[bluefete]

This is not looking good for Tobago. Distance between Barbados and Trinidad is 206 miles.

https://barbadostoday.bb/2024/06/30/sto ... ane-beryl/



The Barbados Meteorological Services (BMS) has advised that the current projected track of Hurricane Beryl is slightly south of the previous forecast and the center of Beryl is now expected to pass 65 miles (106 km) south of Barbados.

The system however continues to rapidly intensify and is expected to become a major hurricane before reaching the island late Sunday night. Therefore, a hurricane warning remains in effect for Barbados.

In its latest update the BMS said: “Hurricane Beryl continues to strengthen, developing a small eyewall… and at 11 p.m., Saturday, June 29 was located near 10.4N 51.2W or about 955 km (595 miles) east-southeast of Barbados.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 85 MPH (140 Km/h). Present movement is towards the west at 20 MPH (31 Km/h). The minimum central pressure is 986mb. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 km (15 miles) from the center and tropical storm-forced winds extend outward up to 110 km (70 miles). “

The island is expected to feel the impacts associated with this system as early as late Sunday night into early Monday morning July 1.

The forecasters warn that during the passage of Beryl, hurricane-force winds and heavy rainfall will cause flash flooding and severe thunderstorm activity is likely to result in damage to some structures and multiple interruptions to power utilities and services. Marine conditions will be hazardous ahead of and during the passage of Beryl and therefore a small craft and high surf warning remains in effect for above-normal sea swells.

[bluefete]

The one after Beryl - heading west - 70% chance of formation in 7 days.

[bluefete]

Tobago now at Orange level Tropical Storm Warning

Tropical Storm Warning #4 for Tobago - ORANGE LEVEL
Tropical Storm
Sat, Jun 29, 2024 8:00 PM to Mon, Jul 1, 2024 12:00 PM

Tobago is presently under a Tropical Storm Warning. This means there is a higher potential for tropical storm conditions, including sustained winds of 63-118 km/h, within the watch area, within the next 30 hours.

As of 5 am today, Hurricane Beryl was located near 10.7°N 53.1°W, approximately 828km E of Tobago, moving westward near 33 km/h.

As Beryl approaches the southern Windwards on Monday, there is a medium chance (45-55%)of tropical storm force winds impacting Tobago. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely from Monday, and sea conditions can become choppy and rough. The next update will be at 8 am today (Sunday 30th June 2024) or earlier if necessary.

https://www.metoffice.gov.tt/early_warning

[shake d livin wake d dead]

Just read on nhc that beryl could bet a cat 4 when it passes over the islands. That's insane!

[PariaMan]

Trinidad and Tobago in green for both wind and rain

However Tobago in orange for wind

Do not get you all panties in a bunch

The attachment Screenshot_20240630_060158_Chrome.jpg is no longer available

[PariaMan]

Wind

[maj. tom]

@ 0715hrs

Watch where the eye is and the predicted path. Trinidad getting some of that.
This is a well developed Cat 3 Hurricane, not small breeze like the times before.

The winds will be coming from the North and West sides of that anti-clockwise arm.






Breakdown: What is the strongest side of the hurricane


https://www.actionnews5.com/2018/09/16/breakdown-what-is-strongest-side-hurricane/

[snowman]

These systems swinging lower and lower every year. I love the chaos though.

[PariaMan]

Still to far north for trinidadians to be badly affected.

[maj. tom]

@8:20 North Trinidad will get some wind gusts but not too bad ~ 40 - 50km/hr. But expect the heavy rain.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=

[Dizzy28]

Tobago now at Orange level Tropical Storm Warning

Tropical Storm Warning #4 for Tobago - ORANGE LEVEL
Tropical Storm
Sat, Jun 29, 2024 8:00 PM to Mon, Jul 1, 2024 12:00 PM

Tobago is presently under a Tropical Storm Warning. This means there is a higher potential for tropical storm conditions, including sustained winds of 63-118 km/h, within the watch area, within the next 30 hours.

As of 5 am today, Hurricane Beryl was located near 10.7°N 53.1°W, approximately 828km E of Tobago, moving westward near 33 km/h.

As Beryl approaches the southern Windwards on Monday, there is a medium chance (45-55%)of tropical storm force winds impacting Tobago. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely from Monday, and sea conditions can become choppy and rough. The next update will be at 8 am today (Sunday 30th June 2024) or earlier if necessary.

https://www.metoffice.gov.tt/early_warning

Tobago is under a Hurricane Warning as at 8am today