The official tropical weather thread 2017

[streetbeastINC.]

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 11N39W to 01N42W, moving west at 10 to 15 knots within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable wind shear, is in a mostly very moist environment with some patches of dry air according to CIRA LPW and is under a region of middle level divergence. These factors support scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms from 0N to 11N between 33W and 45W. A tropical wave is within 165 nm E of the Lesser Antilles. Its axis extends from 14N57W to inland Guyana, moving west at 15 knots within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable wind shear. However, extensive intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust hinder convection at the time.NHC

[bluesclues]

Nah.
Bret followed the itcz . When it hit Trinidad, it was still weak and would follow the energy, which was the energy Columbus channel .

As the itcz drifts north , we well go back to seeing them veer northward, generally.

Well let's hope you're right and the itcz moves north and takes the storm paths with it.

[janfar]

[ADONI]

Fuh real man, the lower off from Africa, it tends to come our way...

[shake d livin wake d dead]

like God get deported from Trinidad

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

Update

[X_Factor]

if that follows a similar path we in some trouble

[bluefete]

like God get deported from Trinidad

We kicked him out. But he has not abandoned us. We need a little shake up because if we don't get it, things will get much worse. Always remember that God could not find, other than Lot and his family, one good person in Sodom and Gomorrah. No matter how much Abraham begged, there was none.

We have not reached there as yet. There are many good people still living in T&T (and on Tuner).

Now, back to the weather.

I want to see, given that they have more than enough time, what the government will do differently this rounds.

Is short man going to release funds to clear water courses? How come the Cipero River, which was not cleaned for 7 years could be cleaned in 1 day? I wonder whose constituency it runs through.

If this is our year for weather trials, we should be very thankful that Bret was not much worse notwithstanding the suffering of the people in south and central.

The government needs to ensure that the people who have responsibility for these things are EMPOWERED to do their jobs.

Why must Rowley have to tour before things are put in place?

Anyway, try and stay dry.

[bluefete]

if that follows a similar path we in some trouble

It depends on what we put in place this time around.

Is the gov't only going to give us a bunch of telephone numbers to call where no one will answer?

[bluefete]

And you have muffler bearings who say that God is not real. I live for the day a man can come and tell he he controls the weather and can do what Bret did TWICE!

not only that but the storm track showed it veered south last min. passin through just south and through the columbus channel.....had it maintain original path destruction would hav been more

Bret#1 then went on to wreak havoc in Venezuela where more than 100 people died.

Trinidad and Tobago Tropical Storm Bret Aug 1993 UN DHA Information Report 1
Report
from UN Department of Humanitarian Affairs
Published on 07 Aug 1993
DHA-GENEVA 93/0306

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
TROPICAL STORM BRET
DHA-GENEVA INFORMATION REPORT NO. 1
7 AUGUST 1993

1. THIS MORNING, SATURDAY, 7 AUGUST, TROPICAL STORM BRET PASSED BETWEEN THE ISLANDS OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO AND SOUTH OF GRENADA. RAINS AND WINDS (WELL BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH) CAUSED POWER CUTS. SOUTHERN END TOBAGO AND SOME HOUSES IN LOW-LYING CENTRAL
TRINIDAD SUFFERED MINOR DAMAGE DUE TO FLOODING AND FALLING OF TREES.

2. BRET NOW MOVING WEST WITH WINDS UP TO 50 MPH (85 KMPH). STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR VENEZUELAN COAST/ISLANDS, ARUBA, BONAIRE AND CURACAO.

DEPARTMENT OF HUMANITARIAN AFFAIRS - GENEVA +

http://reliefweb.int/report/aruba-nethe ... ion-report

[bluefete]

I am looking for one of those metaphysical posts from Bluesclues that was 'nail on head'.

When I get it i will post.

[dude2014]

"Is short man going to release funds to clear water courses? How come the Cipero River, which was not cleaned for 7 years could be cleaned in 1 day? I wonder whose constituency it runs through".

Is not for short man, is for he boss to give the instructions.

[Monkey Man]

Update

wazeeeeee, i hav esome best plans for the weekend. it mite get sqish yes.

[dude2014]

Generally more and more roofs are being constructed to withstand greater wind force/speed and that probably accounted for a lower number of roofs being blown off. It would be wise to note that during the year roofs are blown off by localised tornadoes, gusty winds. Most of those that get blown off has defects in the way it was constructed.

Persons with faulty roof construction, or who feel the need to reinforce - DO SO NOW !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Even though I had done some roof repairs a while back, the winds reminded me there are a few areas I should pay attention to. Also the neighbour who had water ponding all about their yard heeded the storm warning and got a relative to quickly open some channels for water otherwise the ground floor would have seen some flooding.

While I cannot do everything around I have been able to get the CTTRC to assist with some drainage works and a developer on the other side put in some drains. These helped to drain the water quickly and the place is drying nicely so I do not have to worry about the soil becoming saturated ...............

[TurboSingh12]

Just heard the Caroni river burst its banks and water is crossing the road

[ADONI]

Yea it on ODPM FB page, they sending home South people by me.

[MADMAN1]

Media saying something different...

https://www.facebook.com/CNC3Television ... ED&fref=nf

[teems1]

Media saying something different...

https://www.facebook.com/CNC3Television ... ED&fref=nf

Persons are posting pics showing water on the road. Not sure if it's the highway...

Either way, the media houses should do their due diligence before posting on fb.

[babygirl]

[sMASH]

If we could see the atmospheric pressure in 3d instead of 2d, it would make a difference... Temperature too.

[matr1x]

God is an idea that people used to explain how storms missed. Sad part is the false sense of security. And the delusion is shattered

[maj. tom]

The days of flooding reaching a point now where we can have disease outbreaks. Mosquitoes, helminths and even cholera.

[bluesclues]

Screenshot_20170622-155806.jpg

Satellite imagery seems to show a band of pressure systems passing south of trinidad close to itcz range. This latest development should follow that band into southamerica and not head straight for trinidad.

[shake d livin wake d dead]

3rd graphic on page 1 seems interesting

[Joshie23]

It's a bit long but a good read; open link to see photos in question.. https://www.facebook.com/TTWeatherCente ... 5890248456

Fact Versus Fiction Regarding Tropical Waves East of Trinidad.
Due to Tropical Storm Bret’s widespread effects still being felt across Trinidad, the general public has generally been paying more attention to weather systems east of Trinidad. Specifically, regarding the publicly available satellite images from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s websites.
Additionally, private sector forecasts from Wilken’s Weather Technologies regarding tropical waves currently east of Trinidad and Tobago has also made it’s way into the public’s hands. Wilken’s Weather Technologies is a private weather forecasting company, based in Houston, Texas providing forecasts specifically for offshore and marine forecasting for the oil & gas and petrochemical industries.
This forecast was posted by Agricultural Minister, Clarence Rambharat (See here: https://www.facebook.com/clarenceformay ... =3&theater) with the attached caption “As we move into Clean Up and Recovery, we need to pay attention to these two weather systems, South East of Trinidad. The closer system can bring rain on the weekend. The second system is still being examined. With certain areas already waterlogged and watercourses high, more rains can slow the recovery and clean up effort, but also raise water levels in the key watercourses.”
EDIT: To be clear, "With certain areas already waterlogged and watercourses high, more rains can slow the recovery and clean up effort, but also raise water levels in the key watercourses." This information is correct.
A story was then run by the Trinidad and Tobago Express titled “More Bad Weather Could Be Headed To TT” using Senator Rambharat’s post as it’s source. (See story here: http://www.trinidadexpress.com/…/more-bad-weather-could-be-…)
Now that we’ve established where information has been coming from that has made it’s way into the public discourse, lets talk about what’s true and what isn’t.
FACT: Trinidad and Tobago is NOT under any Tropical Storm (or any storm for that matter) threat, watch or warning.
FACT: Two (now three) tropical waves do currently exist east of Trinidad and Tobago.
These are normal as they have been occurring throughout the month of May and will continue throughout the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Very few waves survive it’s trek across the Atlantic Ocean and even fewer develop to become organized tropical cyclones. Tropical Storm Bret was a very rare occurrence.
FACT: Additional rainfall will exacerbate flooding or flooding will be likely in areas where small tributary or river levels remain high.
FICTION: Trinidad and Tobago is expecting “bad” weather this weekend.
No to bad weather but yes to tropical waves moving into the region.
It is true that these waves will move into the region. The first wave will move into the Lesser Antilles later tomorrow and the following wave will move into the region Monday into Tuesday. What is not being talked about is the overall conditions of the environment when these waves interact with Trinidad. A plume of dry Saharan Air is currently leaving the coasts of Africa (Image 2) and dry Saharan air is currently over Trinidad and Tobago (Image 1).
That being said, isolated showers are still possible due to surges of moisture brought along by tropical waves. These will not be widespread and will not cause widespread flooding similar to Tropical Storm Bret. Localized street flooding is possible in heavy showers.
Rainfall is possible Sunday night into Monday.
FICTION: Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service did not monitor the tropical wave, which eventually became Tropical Storm Bret adequately and they issued very late warnings.
Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service had been monitoring, at the time an area of disturbed weather, diligently. They issued their first weather bulletin, Information Bulletin #1, at 9:45AM June 16th, 3 days before the system began to interact with Trinidad and Tobago (See here: https://www.facebook.com/TTWeatherCente ... =3&theater)
We at the Trinidad and Tobago Weather Center relayed information as it became available from the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service and the National Hurricane Center as early as June 14th with continued updates through Tropical Storm Bret’s dissipation (See here: https://www.facebook.com/TTWeatherCente ... =3&theater)
In the past, tropical storm watches and warnings could not be issued by neither local governmental meteorological services nor the National Hurricane Center until there is a system that has formed. However, it frequently became the case that systems were being designated tropical storms at very late notice to the population and warnings had to be issued as late as 9 hours before landfall. To account for this, Potential Tropical Cyclones became the National Hurricane Center’s way to issue tropical storm advisories on systems that have not formed yet. (See more on Potential Tropical Cyclones here: https://anumetservice.wordpress.com/…/the-advent-of-potent…/)
First warnings were issued by the National Hurricane Center for Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines at 5PM on June 18th. One hour later, Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for Trinidad, Tobago, Grenada and it’s dependencies. Tropical Storm Warnings are issued when tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours. Tropical Storm Watches are issued when tropical storm conditions are expected within 48 hours, which is why this advisory was skipped and a warning was issued.
________________________________________________
The Bottom Line: No widespread, severe weather is expected this weekend through the beginning of next week.
Lastly, to reiterate:
Trinidad and Tobago is NOT under any storm threat, watch or warning.
Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service is the only government organization responsible for issuing weather warnings to Trinidad, Tobago, Grenada and its dependencies.
Trinidad and Tobago Weather Center will relay all information from Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service.
For the latest information on weather, please visit http://www.metoffice.gov.tt/forecast

[matr1x]

You know how trinis are. A storm pass through, and everything gets hyped

[bluesclues]

With the itcz so far south of us now it would be easy to spot any formations breaking away to head toward trinidad. Increasing windspeed and organization are indicators of possible cyclone formation of breakaway systems. We should experience regular rain and storms associated with the rainy season otherwise.

[streetbeastINC.]

Too much sahara dry air, will dissipate

[Slartibartfast]

You know how trinis are. A storm pass through, and everything gets hyped

I waiting to hear them use the storm as a reason to raise the price of doubles.

On a side note... I only just realise how little bit I eat doubles since the price raised to $5. Hmm.

[redmanjp]

So apparently there was a change in policy to issue watches and warnings before a cyclone is formed. Previously this did not happen- under the old policy the storm warning would have only been issued at 5pm on Monday when NHC confirmed that a storm had formed- just about 2-3 hrs before storm conditions started and giving absolutely no time to prepare or stock up especially as it was a holiday supermarkets could already have been closed. So this was a good move by both NHC and the local Met Office