THE OFFICIAL TROPICAL WEATHER THREAD 2025

[paid_influencer]

blown north, as predicted

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

Most of the rain appears to have passed us

[PariaMan]

Yea we really blessed. It looked like it was a bit organized before and after us

[Chimera]

Yea we really blessed. It looked like it was a bit organized before and after us

Big up all the trini obeah men and women for keeping us safe from the elements.

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

NHC is tracking this wave in the Atlantic

[PariaMan]

Again we just on the edge of projected path should be ok

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

2:00 PM - The Atlantic is coming alive as we track multiple tropical waves across the basin.
Tropical Wave 14, now #Invest94L, has a low chance of developing as it moves into the Western Caribbean Sea. This wave produced gusty winds across Tobago and Grenada earlier this week as it moved across the Windwards.
Looking to our east, while a weak tropical wave (Tropical Wave 15) is set to move across T&T on Friday, our attention is focused on Tropical Wave 16, which has been tagged for development by the National Hurricane Center.
It currently has a medium chance of development over the next seven days, with the National Hurricane Center stating, "Some development is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form over the tropical Atlantic by the end of the week or this weekend while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph."
Currently, it is too soon to tell what exact impacts this system will bring, but forecast models indicate this system will track across the Windwards, mainly north of Trinidad, between late Sunday night and Monday night.
For T&T, regardless of development, at this time, the main threat will remain heavy rainfall and locally gusty winds, while overall heavier rainfall and stronger winds remain north of the country.
An in-depth update will be posted later tonight on https://ttweathercenter.com/

[DMan7]

Will veer north as per usual. Nothing to be concerned about.

[paid_influencer]

oh chit it coming straight at we

[sMASH]

High pressure and low pressure zones arranged in a way to pull that up as it supposed to pass over us. We gonna get the the peripheral weather
Sry for the lesser antillies

[paid_influencer]

oh chit it coming straight at we

[shake d livin wake d dead]

oh chit it coming straight at we

449280786_4047637745453718_4164316301472473252_n.jpg

By Friday, it would head north as usual. Some showers here and there if anything.

[paid_influencer]

oh chit it coming straight at we

449280786_4047637745453718_4164316301472473252_n.jpg

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

National Hurricane Center
Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive, and development of this system is anticipated. A
tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form this weekend
several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands while the system
moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[bluefete]

Barbados might get a lash and we might get the tail end.

We really need the rain.

[paid_influencer]

up to 90% now

it happening

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

https://ttweathercenter.com/2024/06/27/ ... windwards/

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

Thundershowers today

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

[shake d livin wake d dead]

Looks like we in the clear with that potential ts... Swinging north

[redmanjp]

100% chance- likely forming today

2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A low pressure system located about 1400 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands is becoming better defined and the associated
showers and thunderstorms are increasing in organization. If these
trends continue, a tropical depression will likely form later today.
This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph and
approach the Windward Islands by the end of the weekend, and
Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches could be required for portions
of that region tonight or early Saturday. For more information,
including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

i wonder why they shorten the red one while the yellow one longer

[redmanjp]

TD2 formed

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM AST Fri Jun 28 2024

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.1N 41.9W
ABOUT 1225 MI...1970 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the
progress of this system. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will
likely be required for portions of the area tonight or early
Saturday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 9.1 North, longitude 41.9 West. The depression
is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A relatively
quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the
next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to
move across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm tonight or early Saturday and a hurricane
in a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Two is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands.
This rainfall may produce localized flooding in vulnerable areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Depression Two, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to reach the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

[redmanjp]

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

[redmanjp]

my prediction is TS warning for tobago based on this

[PariaMan]

Doubt it . Too far north

[redmanjp]

Doubt it . Too far north

it shows a 30-40% chance of tropical storm conditions which may be enough for a watch/warning. remember a storm is not the centre alone- it has winds reaching outwards for some distance.

[paid_influencer]

them storm forming in quick procession

[redmanjp]

them storm forming in quick procession

if we doh get 1 we might get the other

[shaneelal]

Persons in Barbados for T20 final may need to prepare.