What is the PNM's plan for the economy?

[eliteauto]

ZR and Dragon keep it real Habit moving like a public servant, he musbe take he bank time this morning

[racedriverpro]

^^ I eh saying no but...habit shud start work on time to get zoom rolling...I prefer to get a few giggles over a headache from reading habit7's posts.

[Habit7]

Nah my CEPEP gang just finish wackering a median, we were out from since 5am.

I done my work for the day.

[drchaos]

No wonder Habit defending the gov on every turn ... He frighten they don't renew his CEPEP contract.

[Trinispougla]

Still don't see the correlation between attempting to balance the budget and somehow go from -2 to +2 percent growth in a year.

Also our public debt is now at much higher levels ... again not blaming the PNM alone here some of it is inherited.

This is a forecast for next year. Public debt must be higher. We spent way too much in the last ten years. One economist has said the country was really in recession since 2009/ 2010 and we didn't know it. That is because since 2007, we have witnessed significant shortfalls in our export of natural gas. The severe trauma to the economy however took place in 2014 when the price of all three major commodities halved I.e oil, natural gas and hydrocarbons.Add to all this, the gas to liquids plant,the highway and the waste water treatment plant and the reasons we are in recession are simple even to a form 4 accounting student. If you add all this together, then a recession as severe on the energy sector(where the vast majority of the job losses are taking place) as the 1980s trial was inevitable. I'll tell you somethin, 3/4 of the companies on the estate are running on severe losses right now. Not just the Trinidadian companies but also the fortune 500 companies and the multinationals. It is only because TT has been very good to them and they have a hint of gratitude unlike Lakshmi Mittal that they are staying and taking the beating with us

[bluesclues]

No wonder Habit defending the gov on every turn ... He frighten they don't renew his CEPEP contract.

But they say is lie I does lie.

[rspann]

Wait nah ,all the time I thought Habit 7 was Malcolm Jones.

[drchaos]

Still don't see the correlation between attempting to balance the budget and somehow go from -2 to +2 percent growth in a year.

Also our public debt is now at much higher levels ... again not blaming the PNM alone here some of it is inherited.

This is a forecast for next year. Public debt must be higher. We spent way too much in the last ten years. One economist has said the country was really in recession since 2009/ 2010 and we didn't know it. That is because since 2007, we have witnessed significant shortfalls in our export of natural gas. The severe trauma to the economy however took place in 2014 when the price of all three major commodities halved I.e oil, natural gas and hydrocarbons.Add to all this, the gas to liquids plant,the highway and the waste water treatment plant and the reasons we are in recession are simple even to a form 4 accounting student. If you add all this together, then a recession as severe on the energy sector(where the vast majority of the job losses are taking place) as the 1980s trial was inevitable. I'll tell you somethin, 3/4 of the companies on the estate are running on severe losses right now. Not just the Trinidadian companies but also the fortune 500 companies and the multinationals. It is only because TT has been very good to them and they have a hint of gratitude unlike Lakshmi Mittal that they are staying and taking the beating with us

Yeah an engineer who returned from Dubai was saying the national yearly budget of Dubai was 10 billion USD which is the same as we have been spending ... Look at what we have to show for it.

I figure out why the IMF think the Economy will grow next year ... Gov is the primary driving force behind the economy and things improve when they spend spend spend. It's all very unsustainable ...

PNM have decided to start spending from the H&S fund ... the injection of these funds into the system will push some level of unsustainable growth until the money done ofc.

[Habit7]

Still don't see the correlation between attempting to balance the budget and somehow go from -2 to +2 percent growth in a year.

Also our public debt is now at much higher levels ... again not blaming the PNM alone here some of it is inherited.

This is a forecast for next year. Public debt must be higher. We spent way too much in the last ten years. One economist has said the country was really in recession since 2009/ 2010 and we didn't know it. That is because since 2007, we have witnessed significant shortfalls in our export of natural gas. The severe trauma to the economy however took place in 2014 when the price of all three major commodities halved I.e oil, natural gas and hydrocarbons.Add to all this, the gas to liquids plant,the highway and the waste water treatment plant and the reasons we are in recession are simple even to a form 4 accounting student. If you add all this together, then a recession as severe on the energy sector(where the vast majority of the job losses are taking place) as the 1980s trial was inevitable. I'll tell you somethin, 3/4 of the companies on the estate are running on severe losses right now. Not just the Trinidadian companies but also the fortune 500 companies and the multinationals. It is only because TT has been very good to them and they have a hint of gratitude unlike Lakshmi Mittal that they are staying and taking the beating with us

Yeah an engineer who returned from Dubai was saying the national yearly budget of Dubai was 10 billion USD which is the same as we have been spending ... Look at what we have to show for it.

I figure out why the IMF think the Economy will grow next year ... Gov is the primary driving force behind the economy and things improve when they spend spend spend. It's all very unsustainable ...

PNM have decided to start spending from the H&S fund ... the injection of these funds into the system will push some level of unsustainable growth until the money done ofc.

If you actually read the IMF report you with see the positive projection of real growth are a result of the large positive projections of energy growth with new assets coming on stream.

An injection TT$2.5b cannot result in projected growth for the next 5years.

http://m.guardian.co.tt/columnist/2016- ... round-2017

[Trinispougla]

Still don't see the correlation between attempting to balance the budget and somehow go from -2 to +2 percent growth in a year.

Also our public debt is now at much higher levels ... again not blaming the PNM alone here some of it is inherited.

This is a forecast for next year. Public debt must be higher. We spent way too much in the last ten years. One economist has said the country was really in recession since 2009/ 2010 and we didn't know it. That is because since 2007, we have witnessed significant shortfalls in our export of natural gas. The severe trauma to the economy however took place in 2014 when the price of all three major commodities halved I.e oil, natural gas and hydrocarbons.Add to all this, the gas to liquids plant,the highway and the waste water treatment plant and the reasons we are in recession are simple even to a form 4 accounting student. If you add all this together, then a recession as severe on the energy sector(where the vast majority of the job losses are taking place) as the 1980s trial was inevitable. I'll tell you somethin, 3/4 of the companies on the estate are running on severe losses right now. Not just the Trinidadian companies but also the fortune 500 companies and the multinationals. It is only because TT has been very good to them and they have a hint of gratitude unlike Lakshmi Mittal that they are staying and taking the beating with us

Yeah an engineer who returned from Dubai was saying the national yearly budget of Dubai was 10 billion USD which is the same as we have been spending ... Look at what we have to show for it.

I figure out why the IMF think the Economy will grow next year ... Gov is the primary driving force behind the economy and things improve when they spend spend spend. It's all very unsustainable ...

PNM have decided to start spending from the H&S fund ... the injection of these funds into the system will push some level of unsustainable growth until the money done ofc.

Thing is, dubai is one of the meccas of capitalism, the private sector is alot more willing to put their money where their mouths are in dubai. Also, the UAE has been in the oil game longer than TT, they started getting the benefits in the 30s and that transformed the peninsula from a tribal backwater to serious development. Secondly dubai has been in serious debt, in fact unable to pay its creditors since 2009 and in November last year, there was an exit of several banks who fear a financial Armageddon. In tesponse, the emirate was forced to cut expenditure which is probably why their budget has been so small. But coming back to my first point, thanks to being in the game for a long time, the infrastructure was already there so all that is needed was routine maintenance. That islands project was a big contributor to their current debt situation. Thirdly, the energy industry in TT really exploded when the industrial estate was created. That is when companies started to bring production facilities here and used the controls (designed by Ken Julien) and the gas supply that we provided. Ken Julien might be many things but he has an international reputation as a genius in the energy industry but that is a side point. That together with the fact that Jamaica's bauxite industry was crippled by American dominance of the market and the oil boom caused us to be the richest country in the Caribbean. Personally, I would strongly suggest a whole review of our economy due to three factors
1. Cuba has ginormous reserves of oil and gas that they are just waiting to tap
2. American Shale gas could, not necessarily would come into the equation.
3. Guyana also has massive reserves
which is ehy that IFC is so essential because we need to find a way to keep our finances where they are without having to rely on oil and gas because the field is getting competitive very quickly

[drchaos]

Still don't see the correlation between attempting to balance the budget and somehow go from -2 to +2 percent growth in a year.

Also our public debt is now at much higher levels ... again not blaming the PNM alone here some of it is inherited.

This is a forecast for next year. Public debt must be higher. We spent way too much in the last ten years. One economist has said the country was really in recession since 2009/ 2010 and we didn't know it. That is because since 2007, we have witnessed significant shortfalls in our export of natural gas. The severe trauma to the economy however took place in 2014 when the price of all three major commodities halved I.e oil, natural gas and hydrocarbons.Add to all this, the gas to liquids plant,the highway and the waste water treatment plant and the reasons we are in recession are simple even to a form 4 accounting student. If you add all this together, then a recession as severe on the energy sector(where the vast majority of the job losses are taking place) as the 1980s trial was inevitable. I'll tell you somethin, 3/4 of the companies on the estate are running on severe losses right now. Not just the Trinidadian companies but also the fortune 500 companies and the multinationals. It is only because TT has been very good to them and they have a hint of gratitude unlike Lakshmi Mittal that they are staying and taking the beating with us

Yeah an engineer who returned from Dubai was saying the national yearly budget of Dubai was 10 billion USD which is the same as we have been spending ... Look at what we have to show for it.

I figure out why the IMF think the Economy will grow next year ... Gov is the primary driving force behind the economy and things improve when they spend spend spend. It's all very unsustainable ...

PNM have decided to start spending from the H&S fund ... the injection of these funds into the system will push some level of unsustainable growth until the money done ofc.

If you actually read the IMF report you with see the positive projection of real growth are a result of the large positive projections of energy growth with new assets coming on stream.

An injection TT$2.5b cannot result in projected growth for the next 5years.

http://m.guardian.co.tt/columnist/2016- ... round-2017

Did they not announce that 2.5 Billion TT was the start. They were splitting the H&S fund and around half was going to be used to over the next few years for expenditure.

Also the IMF said their projections had more to do with their confidence in the gov rather than the price of oil and gas. It is said in the article I posted above.

[drchaos]

Still don't see the correlation between attempting to balance the budget and somehow go from -2 to +2 percent growth in a year.

Also our public debt is now at much higher levels ... again not blaming the PNM alone here some of it is inherited.

This is a forecast for next year. Public debt must be higher. We spent way too much in the last ten years. One economist has said the country was really in recession since 2009/ 2010 and we didn't know it. That is because since 2007, we have witnessed significant shortfalls in our export of natural gas. The severe trauma to the economy however took place in 2014 when the price of all three major commodities halved I.e oil, natural gas and hydrocarbons.Add to all this, the gas to liquids plant,the highway and the waste water treatment plant and the reasons we are in recession are simple even to a form 4 accounting student. If you add all this together, then a recession as severe on the energy sector(where the vast majority of the job losses are taking place) as the 1980s trial was inevitable. I'll tell you somethin, 3/4 of the companies on the estate are running on severe losses right now. Not just the Trinidadian companies but also the fortune 500 companies and the multinationals. It is only because TT has been very good to them and they have a hint of gratitude unlike Lakshmi Mittal that they are staying and taking the beating with us

Yeah an engineer who returned from Dubai was saying the national yearly budget of Dubai was 10 billion USD which is the same as we have been spending ... Look at what we have to show for it.

I figure out why the IMF think the Economy will grow next year ... Gov is the primary driving force behind the economy and things improve when they spend spend spend. It's all very unsustainable ...

PNM have decided to start spending from the H&S fund ... the injection of these funds into the system will push some level of unsustainable growth until the money done ofc.

Thing is, dubai is one of the meccas of capitalism, the private sector is alot more willing to put their money where their mouths are in dubai. Also, the UAE has been in the oil game longer than TT, they started getting the benefits in the 30s and that transformed the peninsula from a tribal backwater to serious development. Secondly dubai has been in serious debt, in fact unable to pay its creditors since 2009 and in November last year, there was an exit of several banks who fear a financial Armageddon. In tesponse, the emirate was forced to cut expenditure which is probably why their budget has been so small. But coming back to my first point, thanks to being in the game for a long time, the infrastructure was already there so all that is needed was routine maintenance. That islands project was a big contributor to their current debt situation. Thirdly, the energy industry in TT really exploded when the industrial estate was created. That is when companies started to bring production facilities here and used the controls (designed by Ken Julien) and the gas supply that we provided. Ken Julien might be many things but he has an international reputation as a genius in the energy industry but that is a side point. That together with the fact that Jamaica's bauxite industry was crippled by American dominance of the market and the oil boom caused us to be the richest country in the Caribbean. Personally, I would strongly suggest a whole review of our economy due to three factors
1. Cuba has ginormous reserves of oil and gas that they are just waiting to tap
2. American Shale gas could, not necessarily would come into the equation.
3. Guyana also has massive reserves
which is ehy that IFC is so essential because we need to find a way to keep our finances where they are without having to rely on oil and gas because the field is getting competitive very quickly

Agreed that IFC could do wonders once implemented properly.

[Habit7]

You cannot dip into the HSF when you want, the conditions has to be present and it can only be done in the following year. You cannot forecast to use HSF money beyond a year.

Yes they have confidence in the govt's tight fiscal policies and the growth in the energy sector, not in spending HSF money as you said before.

[drchaos]

Nah nah nah horse .... They clearly stated

"THE International Monetary Fund (IMF) is forecasting an economic turnaround in Trinidad and Tobago next year.
And it is basing that forecast, not primarily on better oil and gas prices or production but on its confidence in the Government."

the only thing the government has done is to raise revenue to balance the budget by increased taxation, decreased subsidies and enforcing fines. These do not grow an economy ......
So far no ideas on tickling the nipple's of the economy. So have to be something else ....

[Trinispougla]

Well actually a deal with the Chinese was in the pipeline since 2013 but only now started with the IFC. Also there are plans for a downstream aluminum sector .Diversification is not an easy thing. If it was, then Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Dubai would not be taxing their people for the first time. Norway has even had to dip into its sovereignty fund three times in the last year. TT actually getting it comparatively mild compared to some OPEC and non-opec countries. Suriname and Nigeria already take out multi billion dollar loans from the world bank. Thing is, as I have said time and time again, you can't diversify overnight, can't diversify in a or two, it is supposed to be something strategic. And you have to also be prepared for potential failure. E.g rwanda was planning to get into the energy sector in the mid 2000s. The is gas at the bottom of several of their volcanic lakes, meaning the gas won't ever runout. French teams had already planned to extract it, possibly making Rwanda a one of the biggest exporters of methanol. It never reached fruition on a large scale because the region was unstable and there were big name producers like TT and Algeria bossing the market. Fact is,all these could fall through the roof and we may well have to fight up with diminishing reserves. Which as I said is why everyone recognizes the importance of the IFC

[drchaos]

I think we don't have it too bad cause we have a narco economy that rivals the petro economy.

Does wonders in propping up the system.

[Habit7]

Nah nah nah horse .... They clearly stated

"THE International Monetary Fund (IMF) is forecasting an economic turnaround in Trinidad and Tobago next year.
And it is basing that forecast, not primarily on better oil and gas prices or production but on its confidence in the Government."

the only thing the government has done is to raise revenue to balance the budget by increased taxation, decreased subsidies and enforcing fines. These do not grow an economy ......
So far no ideas on tickling the nipple's of the economy. So have to be something else ....

You keep referencing an article about the report and not the actual report. I never said the growth is because of price increases, I said because of growth in the energy sector, they are 2 different things. If you still don't want to read the report, I gave you a link of a full analysis by the former energy minister of the report.

That is why you could have a report predicting growth of the economy, articles reporting on that report, a hodgepodge list of policies, yet you still say the govt has no ideas on how to stimulate the economy. You starting to sound like a Monday night forum now.

At first I thought you were an objective person with the usual "all ah dem bad" political rhetoric. But you are beginning to sound like a UNC waterfront protester akin to ZR but just with better spelling. I hope that is not you.

[drchaos]

Soooooo basically what you saying is that the economy will grow next year due to the growth in the energy sector .... This Growth is fueled by plans laid down while the country was under the UNC/PP regime and yet you and the IMF praising the PNM for it ...

You on thin ice here boy Habit ...

[De Dragon]

Nah nah nah horse .... They clearly stated

"THE International Monetary Fund (IMF) is forecasting an economic turnaround in Trinidad and Tobago next year.
And it is basing that forecast, not primarily on better oil and gas prices or production but on its confidence in the Government."

the only thing the government has done is to raise revenue to balance the budget by increased taxation, decreased subsidies and enforcing fines. These do not grow an economy ......
So far no ideas on tickling the nipple's of the economy. So have to be something else ....

You keep referencing an article about the report and not the actual report. I never said the growth is because of price increases, I said because of growth in the energy sector, they are 2 different things. If you still don't want to read the report, I gave you a link of a full analysis by the former energy minister of the report.

That is why you could have a report predicting growth of the economy, articles reporting on that report, a hodgepodge list of policies, yet you still say the govt has no ideas on how to stimulate the economy. You starting to sound like a Monday night forum now.

At first I thought you were an objective person with the usual "all ah dem bad" political rhetoric. But you are beginning to sound like a UNC waterfront protester akin to ZR but just with better spelling. I hope that is not you.

Disagree with Habit7 = UNC supporter What he is conveniently not saying is that the conditions for further drawdowns of the H&SF are predicted to persist for the next 3-5 years. All of those supposed "policies" cannot make up for continual 15 billion dollar deficits, no matter what he'd like us to believe. Further, we've not only lessened our reserves, with no readily available means to build it back up, but we're racing ahead with plans to put ourselves further in debt by borrowing a billion US dollars

[drchaos]

Habit quiet now boy ... I think he realize that he was actually praising the UNC/PP for the projected growth next year so he gone to flagellate himself as penance.

[De Dragon]

Habit quiet now boy ... I think he realize that he was actually praising the UNC/PP for the projected growth next year so he gone to flagellate himself as penance.

Yet they always quick tuh jump up and say which idea implemented by other Governments were "their" own

[drchaos]

It seems I was right ... Habit disappear ever since Manning died.
Habit = Uncle Patos

[zoom rader]

All this talk of 51 pages and we still cant see a PNM plan to handle the economy. PNM running on vaps

[drchaos]

Habit and the IMF just lay out the plan. Reduce the subsidies, increases taxes and wait for oil and gas sector growth to kick in that the Last Gov set into motion and claim responsibility.

No real revolutionary plan to diversify the economy.

Heard a rumor that a sale of NP to one of the conglomerates may be in the works. Anyone else heard anything about this?

[Redman]

That's been a rumor for a while...
NP as it is is a tough acquisition.
The buyer would face a huge liability..without much ways to mitigate.

[desifemlove]

best PM of contemporary......he bettered the country in ways that matter in the long haul..

[De Dragon]

That's been a rumor for a while...
NP as it is is a tough acquisition.
The buyer would face a huge liability..without much ways to mitigate.

Which is strange considering that they have a virtual monopoly on fuel distribution.

[Dizzy28]

That's been a rumor for a while...
NP as it is is a tough acquisition.
The buyer would face a huge liability..without much ways to mitigate.

Which is strange considering that they have a virtual monopoly on fuel distribution.

But they do not control a critical aspect in the chain.....Price!!

[Redman]

Which is strange considering that they have a virtual monopoly on fuel distribution.

Well the truth is that NP owns many of the sites.
but the businesses that occupy the sites are not profitable-especially with the increased GF and BL.

So acquiring NP AS IS will incur
High real estate cost
Low profitability on much of the Real Estate
Old Assets
Bloated employee roster
A HEAP of idiots in management just sucking at the State Enterprise tit.

In an environment where the price is regulated and as a state enterprise you are forced to fulfill your social and political mandate

NP has to
Increase the margin to its dealers-to the range of 10%
Sell off the stations-ALL-reverse public tender
Stream line its business.
Make a real effort to stop illegal export of subsidized diesel

[Trinispougla]

Habit and the IMF just lay out the plan. Reduce the subsidies, increases taxes and wait for oil and gas sector growth to kick in that the Last Gov set into motion and claim responsibility.

No real revolutionary plan to diversify the economy.

Heard a rumor that a sale of NP to one of the conglomerates may be in the works. Anyone else heard anything about this?

Breds, diversification not easy. The IFC wants to create 5000 jobs in by 2020. The last conference had bank of america and Starter Consulting were there. That being said, negotiations alone start in the next two years and who knows if it is going to work out. The fact is TT will have to deal with this recession for at least the next 8-12 months and diversification cannot bring any funds during this period so prudent fiscal management is your only option