PPGPL IPO...

[snatman]

After FCB, Joe Small-investor ent looking for 10% in two years, they want 50% tomorrow!

why did they use Dec 31 as a point of reference? Energy prices are notoriously fickle!

we're in August. Why doesn't the prospectus include 2015 Q2 results, even if unaudited?

them want investors to buy this thing at a 15% premium?? Not even the institutions doing that! unless govt force NIB and UTC to subscribe

they had almost a year to get this right, as of now it seems rushed. I smell undersubscription!

[NR8]

I was also wondering about that Dec 31st

I think a lot of people may be under the assumption that they buying directly into PPGPL. The fact that NGL is only a holding company raises some concerns for me like disclosure from PPGPL to NGL to shareholders, AGMs, etc. And how will dividends allocated to NGL be paid to investors? In terms of amounts I mean, would the same dividend that's paid to NGL be passed on to the shareholder or would it be less to the shareholder?

[JMG]

After FCB, Joe Small-investor ent looking for 10% in two years, they want 50% tomorrow!

why did they use Dec 31 as a point of reference? Energy prices are notoriously fickle!

we're in August. Why doesn't the prospectus include 2015 Q2 results, even if unaudited?

them want investors to buy this thing at a 15% premium?? Not even the institutions doing that! unless govt force NIB and UTC to subscribe

they had almost a year to get this right, as of now it seems rushed. I smell undersubscription!

Here's my "Layman" two cents, the reference point could only have been the audited financials of Dec 31 2014 just as Dec 31 2013 was the reference point for the first offer when it was $25/share. However I don't believe it will be undersubscribed even though each sector of the investing public has an allotment to subscribe to i.e. employees, institutions and the "Joe-small" investor. The hype around this offering and the success of FCB capital growth will ensure Joe-small's interest.

As for the Institutions it depends on their outlook. I hardly believe that they would look at prices year on year and make a decision based solely on that. Even at a 15% premium the longer term growth potential is still huge given the history of energy price fluctuations. Phoenix Park has a proven track record and after all it still is the only energy listing

Internationally, the US is laying out a plan to cut Co2 emissions by 25-28% and the only viable solution that I see would be for them to switch their "Coal" fueled electric plants over to natural gas. Yes the US has a vast supply of natural gas reserves but history will show that they would rather purchase from the global market before taping into their reserves.

At the end of it all it still looks as good an investment as your going to get but just don't expect FCB type growth within the first year, keep in mind that volatility is your friend because it increases liquidity.

[neilsingh100]

I don't agree this is "good" investment based on what is presented in the prospectus but may be a way for persons/institutions to diversify into energy.

There are better investments right now on the stock market that will benefit from higher interest rates and trade at or less book value meaning you paying less for something than it is worth. This is not the case with TTNGL/PPGPL.

I hope potential investors due their home work and understand the risks. Most persons see this as the next FCB which it is not.

[snatman]

I agree, on the surface it does not appear to be a good short-term investment.
Someone with a 5-year+ horizon on the other hand should use this as an opportunity to diversify.

I believe the IPO will be undersubscribed and will probably quickly depreciate by 20-30% due to over-valuation and over-supply.

[Redman]

Stallion failed because it was clear chit.

PPGL
Stock prices are based solely on Demand/supply for the stock.

What drives that demand would be the question..to answer

How much sway do the financials have over the demand for the IPO...?

Oil at 50 60 70 does what to the valuation models??

Whats your time line...if the stock is at 50 in 3 years whats the most you want to pay?

The banks/institutions are cashed up and have a cost of funds.And cash keeps coming in.
The Mutual Funds are in the same boat.
They NEED some where to place money.-keep in mind that 15% over 2 years meets their current guaranteed rate on Pension funds..So if they are able to get enough volume on the IPO the institutions will want.

So as a fund manager I might HAVE take up ALL the IPO I can because Im probably maxed out on all the other stock allocations and rates are low...so Im starving for return.
The Greater fool theory might hold sway......

Individuals might be better served by taking some and holding out for lower prices and averaging down....

I dont think the institutions have a choice...

[pugboy]

that is a purely speculative view......
and absolutely nothing wrong with that
as in any market a significant portion will operate like that

[snatman]

I believe individuals might be better served by just buying on the open market after the listing

Individuals might be better served by taking some and holding out for lower prices and averaging down....

I dont think the institutions have a choice...

[neilsingh100]

Remember NIB, UTC and NEL already own 10% of PPGPL so there would be limited demand from these large institutions.

Most money is parked in banks in income/money market mutual funds that have to invest is safe instruments like government bonds and treasury bills so don't expect much demand from these funds. Most of demand would come from pension funds.

Time will tell but knowing Trini's and the gold rush mentality thinking this is another FCB the offer should be fully subscribed but there is a good possibility shares could trade below the IPO price especially with the fact the PPGPL products trade in tandem with oil and the projections for oil price in the short term.

[SR]

So its better for a long term risk than a short term investment?? Me eh know financial expert but looking at some long term investment opportunities

[Redman]

I think its a good buy with a 3+ year time line.

Paying 20 or 15 isnt that material if the stock is at 50.

Remember NIB, UTC and NEL already own 10% of PPGPL so there would be limited demand from these large institutions.

Agreed,
but they also taking in cash and would be needing to place it....

So you guys believe it trades lower after the IPO???

[neilsingh100]

As someone said earlier, only invest what you are prepared to loose.

I use to say the same thing about Clico EFPA's but persons use to argue with me and say they purchased an annuity that was guaranteed and looked what happened.

Investing in a stock there are no guarantees.

[snatman]

I think its a good buy with a 3+ year time line.

Paying 20 or 15 isnt that material if the stock is at 50.

Remember NIB, UTC and NEL already own 10% of PPGPL so there would be limited demand from these large institutions.

Agreed,
but they also taking in cash and would be needing to place it....

So you guys believe it trades lower after the IPO???

Yes, that's my belief.

[Redman]

So buy some before and some after.....either way you covered...

[neilsingh100]

Looking at similar companies trading on international stock exchanges TTNGL seems to be overpriced for the risk so think in the short term there is limited upside and potentially plenty downside risk.

I could buy stock is a US company with the same valuation that has access to shale gas and not have the upstream risks that exist in T&T.
https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:EPD

[snatman]

natural gas chart:
http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/? ... &months=24

Propane chart:
http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/? ... &months=24

Butane chart:
https://www.quandl.com/data/WSJ/BUTANE- ... vieu-Texas

[neilsingh100]

Oil looks like it is headed for 30's...

I think medium to long term (5 to 10 years) this may be worth it but then again Trinidad only has proven gas reserves for 8-10 years so again this is a risky proposition.

[nervewrecker]

Oil looks like it is headed for 30's...

I think medium to long term (5 to 10 years) this may be worth it but then again Trinidad only has proven gas reserves for 8-10 years so again this is a risky proposition.

But we also import. If we run dry vene right there.

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Tapatalk

[pugboy]

Nws reporting bourse chap asking questions bout some of the numbers

[nervewrecker]

Argh, gunna do some stuff.
Will read what you guys say later

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Tapatalk

[DVSTT]

Alot of conflicting views in this thread about PPGPL.
I don't think under subscription will be an issue, however the possible decrease in price has me very concerned. I now got the prospectus so I'll try and read through it and comprehend what I can.

[snatman]

the only redeeming feature looks to be the 4.5% (I'm told) dividend.
Will that be enough to encourage subscription?

[trent]

http://firstlinesecurities.com/ppgpl-tt ... year-make/

[mazdatt]

TTNGL IPO is disappointing...4.5% dividend with little to no upside is nothing to get excited about...

Anyone know when MHTL IPO will come out? Methanol prices holding up much better than gas prices.

[JMG]

<span class="skimlinks-unlinked">http://firstlinesecurities.com/ppgpl-ttngl-update-what-difference-does-a-year-make</span>/

Thanks alot for posting this. I read their previous article on the previously scrubbed IPO offering and after reading this I feel alot more confident on my planned capital exposure as my time horizon is between 2-3 years.

[pugboy]

last year income was $166m, steady decline from $322m in 2011
this year first quarter was $15m
so unless some thing drastic happen, this year might likely be $60m

a lot of people having second thoughts....

[DVSTT]

The US needs natural gas
http://www.usnews.com/news/business/art ... ity-source

[pugboy]

yeah but they producing much of their own demand now......

[neilsingh100]

US has 360 billion Tcf of proven reserves compared to our 11 Tcf i.e. they don't need any gas or products from us.

[Redman]

Getting those reserves to the market in the right time is the determining factor of the importance of those reserves...outside of balance sheet value.

Cost of production will also dictate what wells are produced....this is affected by tax,financing and legal rules and requirements.