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Understanding the weatherman
By ROBIN MAHARAJ Sunday, August 26 2012
I wish to comment on a letter written by C Peters to the TT press, in which he “finds” that the public forecasts released by the local Meteorological Service are questionable. His beef is mainly with the recent rain and flood event affecting Diego Martin, and Peters wants the Met Office to be questioned on its lack of forecasting ability.
I congratulate Peters on his observations in his well-written (language) letter. Evidently he is alert to a few factors (only) affecting processes involved in the forecasts, and proceeds to advise on the need for Doppler radar, getting professional, and “do like they do abroad”. TT met has those but they do not need to follow “foreign”. The Bard advised in As You Like It that “Sweet are the uses of adversity, which, like the toad, ugly and venomous, wears yet a precious jewel in his head”. Peters’ criticism has gifted meteorologists an opportunity to respond and clear up a major public fallacy, that ‘the wedderman lie’.
You see, I have been involved in Meteorology and weather Forecasting since the 1960s, and at one time headed the Forecast Office of the TT Met Service. I ended my working life as a Meteorological Scientist at the World Meteorological Organisation in Geneva, Switzerland. Add to that the fact that I was a TV Meteorologist in Trinidad (TTT) for 27 years (1972-1999) and one should grant that I might know a thing or two on this topic.
I start with the word “forecast” which means a prediction about how something (as the weather) will develop. In meteorology the process involves gathering weather data globally, on the earth’s surface and in the atmosphere using standardised equipment, training and procedures. The data is analysed to depict the distribution patterns of atmospheric pressure, wind, temperature and humidity at the different levels of the atmosphere. Comparison with previous conditions/maps in the region allows the meteorologist to decide whether systems are forming, moving, dissipating or intensifying. This comparison is made with the help of regular satellite pictures, weather radar and superfast computers. Analysis then leads to prognosis.
After the analysis of all available meteorological information/data has been completed, the preparation of forecasts follows. The first and one of the preliminary steps is the determination as accurately as the data permit, of the location 24 hours hence of the different weather systems and the existing weather over a particular region. In many cases a fairly satisfactory estimate of the direction and rate of movement may be made by simply measuring the movement during the last 12 or 24 hours and then extrapolating, or extending, this movement into the future and hence what weather will be experienced in different areas in the immediate future. Then the forecast is transmitted to special interests and public disseminators (radio, TV, press etc). But it is restricted to just a few words in a sentence or two.
That sometimes means information might be sacrificed for brevity, which is a problem. Future weather condition or the state of the atmosphere at a given time is usually expressed in terms of the most significant weather variables which could differ from place to place. Clouds, wind, rain, humidity, sunshine etc might be valued differently for different users/places, eg shipping, aviation, farmers, tourists.
And the weather forecast could be wrong. There are significant changes taking place in various parts of the large extent and volume of atmosphere that cannot be seen on a map or picture, nor analysed or modelled. Their motion scales and periodicities cannot be always captured and make it to the forecast process. We do not control the weather but we try to understand and forecast it.
The whole atmosphere is our meteorological laboratory, incessantly changing. So many forecasts go wrong for lack of data and resolution of systems and/or changes in systems. And the human forecaster factor could lead to errors, I will admit. But the same element could be evident in public interpretation of a forecast. What you hear as an isolated thundershower could mean sunshine for most of Trinidad whilst Tacarigua would be buffeted by wind and torrential rainfall, with flooding. Warnings of severe weather are issued on occasions when public safety and property are in jeopardy. But the information must reach the public ears to be useful and therein lies a major problem. The timing of forecast issue, or the public access to amended forecasts could mean people do not hear what the weather is expected to be.
The morning forecast starts the day and should not be missed. The evening forecast for the next day could sour overnight.
This brings us to a point in Mr Peter’s letter. He belittles meteorologists by using”weather experts” in inverted commas and relates about the storm warning north of Trinidad, as if that caused the Diego floods. The Met said it was ITCZ, the rain producer which was modulated by the disturbance north over the Lesser Antilles. That’s normal (and provable) and not “rigmarole” as Peters decided. The experts are at Piarco and are doing a great job. But forecasting accuracy is not 100 percent in any endeavour, business, politics, love or meteorology. If we are right most of the time we are doing well. It is nonsense for anyone to think, “That is all long winded talk that really says that someone did not have the slightest idea of what was happening”. They know, they do and care and Mr Peters does not know.
SR wrote:well at least scotland bay was calm
ABA Trading LTD wrote:flight to miami cancelled, stuck in toronto for atleast a extra day
steupsW2J wrote:SR wrote:well at least scotland bay was calm
should have told Duane this , I feel Hook advised him otherwise.
Hook wrote:*standing ovation*
Well said, Robin.
Sadly, the very same ignorance that inspired C. Peters to write that swill, could well lead to your rebuttal being viewed as nothing but a long-winded excuse. But it needed to be said.
Hook wrote:We did that about 7years back and it was never approved by admin. It's much worse now. Honestly, if I didn't love the science so much, I'd have already left that hell hole.
Hook wrote:We did that about 7years back and it was never approved by admin. It's much worse now. Honestly, if I didn't love the science so much, I'd have already left that hell hole.
link wrote:Hook wrote:We did that about 7years back and it was never approved by admin. It's much worse now. Honestly, if I didn't love the science so much, I'd have already left that hell hole.
I take exception to this statement........
I spent 15 years ENJOYING the science behind meterology whilst I was working in flight operations......I never thought it was a 'hell hole' & working with the 'boss' Robin was realll cool........
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your job will ALWAYS BE REALLL COOL...excuse the pun....I always look at the isobars in 3D....
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rgds
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