No Dr. Rowley & Rfari

[rfari]

UNC. I think tnt needs the govt they deserve

[Redman]

All bias and thing aside. Who allyuh honestly feel gonna win election? The unc has in fact done a lot for a lot of people in the past few years. Does the average voter honestly care if someone steal this or that or they care who give them good road/water/house/land/subsidies?

Our problem isnt what has been done.

Its what is the cost of whats been done.

Its shortsighted to focus on the end while ignoring the means to that end.

Want my vote -account for the money youve spend-300B???

VALUE FOR MONEY.

[dougla_boy]

All bias and thing aside. Who allyuh honestly feel gonna win election? The unc has in fact done a lot for a lot of people in the past few years. Does the average voter honestly care if someone steal this or that or they care who give them good road/water/house/land/subsidies?

Our problem isnt what has been done.

Its what is the cost of whats been done.

Its shortsighted to focus on the end while ignoring the means to that end.

Want my vote -account for the money youve spend-300B???

VALUE FOR MONEY.

u say that...but a lot of the folks out here to small minded to see such.....all they seeing are the small improvements (which are welcomed)... they dont care for the future.....UML, ZR et al all insist the gimme gimme hand out syndrome dependency originated by the PNM, fine....will live with that.....but the PNM not in power....and we seeing the same thing even worse....and saying nah...the govt working for us

[Chimera]

Yes Redman the well informed person will be angry about the money but the average person who has seen personal benefit will not. They will vote for who has helped them. So i ask again. Who allyuh honestly feel gonna win? Not who you want to win and why they should win.

[Redman]

Yes Redman the well informed person will be angry about the money but the average person who has seen personal benefit will not. They will vote for who has helped them. So i ask again. Who allyuh honestly feel gonna win? Not who you want to win and why they should win.

So yuh asking us to try to quantify (as you say) the less informed people and divine how they will vote.

Ok

out of every 100 people on the voting list ...about 70 vote.

of that 70 -One set of 25 less informed people vote PNM The other set of 25 less informed people vote UNC.

The 20 remaining ...more informed people decide who they supporting. Back and forth.
This 20 is who decides which party wins


Its to close to call.

That swing vote will be swayed based on what comes out once the bell rings.

Both sides keeping real powder and tewtz to pelt

Depends on what stick to who..

[4x4]

The PP will win at least 29 seats again. There has been no shift. It may be more as Mr. Imbert is in for a rough ride. Any bets?

[Chimera]

i think unc will win again

people talk with a lot of outrage about the millions and billions that have been stolen, but if they get nice road to drive on, no flood, their family get their vsep land, they eh care. vote unc

[UML]

[Habit7]

^^^

please quote the source? The norms of intellects

Propaganda newspaper much?

[EFFECTIC DESIGNS]

The PP will win at least 29 seats again. There has been no shift. It may be more as Mr. Imbert is in for a rough ride. Any bets?

COP almost won Imbert seat last election it was so close, but the general feedback I get from people who loves in Diego is generally they do NOT support Kamla. Have friends etc in class who from Diego that go John D and this is their view.

However they are also NOT in support for Rowley and this is seen when Rowley went Diego recently and it made papers when the people told him they do not care about him. They are willing to vote PNM but not as long as Rowley is the leader because they believe him to be no different from all the rest ah old heads so to speak.

Diego Martin is the most interesting seat coming this election. But I have no idea if UNC will win it it very hard to win that area. We may have a case of a lot of non decided. But most likely PNM will win that Diego seat. My maths professor who is generally a PNM is against Kamla, his words are "he voted Kamla and her government thief out the treasury"

I never bothered to ask him why he believes that etc. Because he won't entertain any long political discussions.

[rspann]

I believe no infrastructural works in the country should be carried out in the manner it is being done. Long ago Works and County did it and it was done properly and it lasted.
All kinds of people who have no construction experience are building all kinds of substandard projects just so the can be repaid for their loyalty.
It is high time for this to stop and have codes and requirements for these jobs with proper oversight and checks in place before payment. And that goes for both PNM and PP.

[shogun]

COP almost won Imbert seat last election it was so close, but the general feedback I get from people who loves in Diego is generally they do NOT support Kamla. Have friends etc in class who from Diego that go John D and this is their view.

There's still a COP?

I lol'd so hard at the Prakash-it disingenuously spoken by the legal affairs Minister this morning.

Ramadhar turned out to be a bigger disappointment than i even thought possible.

[Chimera]

I believe no infrastructural works in the country should be carried out in the manner it is being done. Long ago Works and County did it and it was done properly and it lasted.
All kinds of people who have no construction experience are building all kinds of substandard projects just so the can be repaid for their loyalty.
It is high time for this to stop and have codes and requirements for these jobs with proper oversight and checks in place before payment. And that goes for both PNM and PP.

Realistically that isnt going to happen.

[rspann]

That, what you said is the dread part.

[EFFECTIC DESIGNS]

COP almost won Imbert seat last election it was so close, but the general feedback I get from people who loves in Diego is generally they do NOT support Kamla. Have friends etc in class who from Diego that go John D and this is their view.

There's still a COP?

I lol'd so hard at the Prakash-it disingenuously spoken by the legal affairs Minister this morning.

Ramadhar turned out to be a bigger disappointment than i even thought possible.

Well UNC ain't gonna win Diego, they never did well in those seats. Only COP had strong support on that side.

COP is still supposed to be a thing, but you would swear they dead.

[K74T]

That's because they are dead.

[EFFECTIC DESIGNS]

Is it actually Official that they are dead and will not be going up for this year Election?

Where would the "partnership" be then?

[UML]

The PP will win at least 29 seats again. There has been no shift. It may be more as Mr. Imbert is in for a rough ride. Any bets?

COP almost won Imbert seat last election it was so close, but the general feedback I get from people who loves in Diego is generally they do NOT support Kamla. Have friends etc in class who from Diego that go John D and this is their view.

However they are also NOT in support for Rowley and this is seen when Rowley went Diego recently and it made papers when the people told him they do not care about him. They are willing to vote PNM but not as long as Rowley is the leader because they believe him to be no different from all the rest ah old heads so to speak.

Diego Martin is the most interesting seat coming this election. But I have no idea if UNC will win it it very hard to win that area. We may have a case of a lot of non decided. But most likely PNM will win that Diego seat. My maths professor who is generally a PNM is against Kamla, his words are "he voted Kamla and her government thief out the treasury"

I never bothered to ask him why he believes that etc. Because he won't entertain any long political discussions.

That is the PNM claim to fame. "I vote for Kamla and me eh get no house" or anything like that or "I vote for Kamla but I voting PNM dis time"


Yuh really believe they vote for Kamla? !

[RASC]

OK Then

Are y'all going to continue this campaign after the PP loses?

[Chimera]

Rasc aren't you the one who was 100% sure obama would never get elected as well as unc wouldn't win the last election? You gonna go quiet on the forum again if unc win this election?

[RASC]

Rasc aren't you the one who was 100% sure obama would never get elected as well as unc wouldn't win the last election? You gonna go quiet on the forum again if unc win this election?

When did I say Obama wasn't going to be elected?

I knew deep in my heart that UNC was going to win the last general election.

I'm not sure you have the right person here buddy.

[Chimera]

And what does your heart tell you now?

[Daran]

Whom ever has the momentum in the last couple weeks before election will win. I think it will still be PPG as this country has more anti PNM than pro PNM. Let's analyse the last election a bit.

PPG got 430k votes last election while PNM got 285k.

Usually the core UNC voters are 280k, while COP/NAR grouping around 150k.

Which means, everyone who was Anti PNM/Manning voted PPG last election. Good, so what has changed or not changed?

1. Core PNM and UNC roughly the same (the numbers would have changed, but by a similar constant factor).
2. Let's look at where the COP/NAR split lies. From my small group of friends and family, it seems around 2 in 3, let's say 60% has been absorbed into PPG/UNC. The rest have gone to PNM. However, it should be said there's at least a 10% of people in that COP/NAR group who will never vote PNM, so let's say PNM gets 30% of that vote.

PPG having 370k votes
PNM having 325k votes

I'm not considering IPL because whatever factor they have, the runoff elections will remove them from the equation.

Now, 370k votes will make it a very interesting contest, however it will be just enough to win the Tunapuna and Sando West marginals, but barely. In the end I predict,

PPG - 22
PNM - 19

[j.o.e]

^^^ that analysis has many holes......
1) Total votes are irrelevant in our system..seats are all that matters.
2) Last election was an anti-Manning vote not anti-PNM, question is how many of the swing vote will vote PNM this time?
3) The PNM has polled successfully (Tobago, Local Gov't, St Joseph) since the last election ,suggesting an anti-PP swing.
4) The Partnership has become more UNC dominated since 2010 making it unattractive to many of its voters.....even if COP stays its not the COP that people hope for.

Will be a close election nonetheless, I expect more issues to come up that have great ramifications in the coming weeks/momths

[EFFECTIC DESIGNS]

RASC said that PNM will win this election.

But that is unlikely, and the reason being is because UNC has decided to target rural areas and do ground work that gives the impression that its a lot of work being done.

RASC etc says UNC didn't bring in foreign investors etc and that we have less foreign investors under Kamla than we did with Manning. Well I have no idea if this is true or not, could be true for all we know. who knows?

One thing is for sure the average voter has no clue about things like that and it don't affect their decision in voting. Now what is more important? getting foreign investors of paving roads? well maybe it is getting more foreign investors to create local employment.

But road work and drainage in rural neglected communities is what gets votes, everything Kamla has done is to get votes by the people. Hell Trinidad has less mosquitoes now, up by me used to be a heaven for mosquitoes and no with the new concrete drains all the water drains out you have to search to find ah mosquito. Do you know how big of an impact this is? people here laugh at box drains under Kamla as though its a sort of joke and a poor excuse for development but let them try living in areas without any with all the mud drains backing up water and mosquito breathing like crazy. Then you will hear a different tune.

people don't realize how these little important things does add up. Most of the money spent by PNM was in Port of Spain etc the already developed urban areas. Most of the money spent by UNC is in poor rural neglected areas. And especially central and south Trinidad, the PNM usually helped North of Trinidad, St James and West Morrings etc. The rich areas.

I mean don't take my word for it just take a drive on a Sunday afternoon around Trinidad in the back roads etc and you will see. Even Pete the moderator on tuner said he reaches to work faster now even with all the traffic cause he can take newly built back roads now.

[Chimera]

If i as a minister steal 10 million but i spend 1 million to improve the life of someone who got no improvement under the other government, you feel the voters care about the 10 million i steal?

[EFFECTIC DESIGNS]

If i as a minister steal 10 million but i spend 1 million to improve the life of someone who got no improvement under the other government, you feel the voters care about the 10 million i steal?

THIS!!! and exactly THIS!!!!

People of Trinidad knows very well politicians all of them full their pockets, but ask the average joe about it and they will say

"I eh mind if they wa full they pocket, even I would ah do the same but at the same time yuh hadda help the people"

And that is exactly what UNC did. Look how they helped Central and South Trinidad, never before seen by any administration. Let me rephrase it look how they helped south of the Caroni Bridge. Yuh feel people gonna care if they steal? all the people care about is they getting a slice of the pie of which they never got before.

RASC was wrong last time and he is wrong this time.

[Daran]

As well as improvements in service at Ministries, reduction in red tape etc. I'm very impressed by these subtle differences.

But j.o.e is right, that analysis can't translate into seats. And yes last election was an Anti Manning, combined with the new hope in a new 'UNC' under Kamla so it's easy to see why they got so much support.

However:
1. Rowley and PNM will never excite the population like that, especially with PNM being unchanged (except for Manning and a few others). PNM will never be a majority party with their lavantille like image (no racist, plus I'm black I'm allowed). Reason being is that, well meaning indian people could very well be opposed to Kamla and genuinely prefer PNM. However, seeing PNM's core supporters and how they carry about when PNM is in power (talking about them saying things like we in power now, allyuh hadda fraid me I have PNM contacts..blah blah blah). It happens, and it makes a lot of indo's quite wary and scared.

2. Kamla has absorbed the majority of the COP voters. Some of them I know more staunch UNC than anyone and they claim now they were just anti Bas. However, having even half of this base has proven to be enough to win marginals like Tunapuna and Sando West.

3. PPG has so many marks to buss on PNM that it will disenchant a lot of the undecided to either not vote of give PPG another chance.

4. Kamla, regardless or what many say in the media or on facebook, is generally well liked and trusted. Undecideds will still lean more to her.

[EFFECTIC DESIGNS]

Rowley make a big issue about the government using sate funds for advertising the government working for you think, with the ministry of works projects.

Anyone remember when PNM was in power and the countless full page ads in the newspapers everyday doing the very same thing? and Rowley was so quiet back then why didn't he say something back then? no wonder Diego Martin people run him out of town.

Also if you look at Licensing office new state of the art in Caroni, you know a location other than the tip end of Trinidad? port of spain? the most inconvenient place on earth? In which dimension would the PNM be willing to put licensing office in Caroni? LOL

Now you don't have to go to POS just to get something done in licensing office and all the drama that comes with it like little rain fall and whole ah POS flood, with drain water touching yuh testicles and vagrant bathing next to you.

[Chimera]

Anytime effectic agree with me i does feel as if i wrong.


But whatever