National Budget 2017-2018 - LIVE STREAM on pg9 @ 1:30pm

[timelapse]

I'm also getting the sense that the devaluation is coming. Maybe 8:1
This is gonna be another tight squeeze of a budget.

Allyuh not seeming to understand the situation.They want to crash the economy on purpose.All the vacant properties will be ripe for the picking to the wealthy

[VexXx Dogg]

I'm also getting the sense that the devaluation is coming. Maybe 8:1
This is gonna be another tight squeeze of a budget.

Allyuh not seeming to understand the situation.They want to crash the economy on purpose.All the vacant properties will be ripe for the picking to the wealthy

Yea, this sounding like rumshop talk with foil hats. it not making any sense.

[pugboy]

The avg person here is far from a guava season mentality

[Monkey Man]

I'm also getting the sense that the devaluation is coming. Maybe 8:1
This is gonna be another tight squeeze of a budget.

Allyuh not seeming to understand the situation.They want to crash the economy on purpose.All the vacant properties will be ripe for the picking to the wealthy

Yea, this sounding like rumshop talk with foil hats. it not making any sense.

yea pal only the whole of trinidad is a rumshop.

so think on that.

[Dizzy28]

In this connection we would call on the country to support the national effort as we seek to prioritize the use of our limited inflows of foreign exchange. We will not be going back to the exchange controls we had in place before 1993, but we will certainly not be using up our foreign reserves to keep the exchange rate at levels which will maximize our imports. When we took the decision in 1993 to let the market substantially determine the rate of exchange, we were accepting, in principle, that we would live with any rate the foreign exchange market determined. It is nevertheless true that when we were in a period of favourable foreign exchange inflows, if the market called for a big change in the exchange rate, we would use our reserves and put enough currency in the market to keep the rate at a level with which we were comfortable. However, in this period of significant decline in foreign exchange inflows it will be unreasonable and dangerous to use up our foreign reserves as we were accustomed to. This would be paving our way into the arms of the IMF and that is something this government is NOT prepared to do. What this means is that the only way in which the exchange rate will be held to its traditional level is if we cut back on our demand, bringing the demand more in line with the reduced inflows. This is where prioritizing comes in. Our basic position here will be that first priority for foreign exchange will be given to those firms or industries that generate reasonable amounts of foreign exchange. If the demand for foreign exchange is not curtailed we will eventually be forced to live with the rate determined by the market. This is where holding strain and varying our taste come in.........http://www.trinidadexpress.com/20170927 ... rgy-sector

You can make your determination of what to expect next week based on KCR's statments today in his “Spotlight on Trinidad and Tobago's Financial Circumstance: The Road Ahead” today.

[Trinispougla]

In this connection we would call on the country to support the national effort as we seek to prioritize the use of our limited inflows of foreign exchange. We will not be going back to the exchange controls we had in place before 1993, but we will certainly not be using up our foreign reserves to keep the exchange rate at levels which will maximize our imports. When we took the decision in 1993 to let the market substantially determine the rate of exchange, we were accepting, in principle, that we would live with any rate the foreign exchange market determined. It is nevertheless true that when we were in a period of favourable foreign exchange inflows, if the market called for a big change in the exchange rate, we would use our reserves and put enough currency in the market to keep the rate at a level with which we were comfortable. However, in this period of significant decline in foreign exchange inflows it will be unreasonable and dangerous to use up our foreign reserves as we were accustomed to. This would be paving our way into the arms of the IMF and that is something this government is NOT prepared to do. What this means is that the only way in which the exchange rate will be held to its traditional level is if we cut back on our demand, bringing the demand more in line with the reduced inflows. This is where prioritizing comes in. Our basic position here will be that first priority for foreign exchange will be given to those firms or industries that generate reasonable amounts of foreign exchange. If the demand for foreign exchange is not curtailed we will eventually be forced to live with the rate determined by the market. This is where holding strain and varying our taste come in.........http://www.trinidadexpress.com/20170927 ... rgy-sector

You can make your determination of what to expect next week based on KCR's statments today in his “Spotlight on Trinidad and Tobago's Financial Circumstance: The Road Ahead” today.

I always expected a devaluation. The TT dollar should really be 10:1 but its politicians we are dealing with so to be expedient i think it will be anywhere between 8.5 and 9

[Allergic2BunnyEars]

http://www.opm.gov.tt/wp-content/upload ... -edits.pdf

Material copied and pasted here:

Page 1
SAFEGUARDING OUR FUTURE

Dealing with the Deficit and Restoring Growth
An undisputed fact is that in whatever area of governmental
decision- making, the one thing that stands out and which will
always be the national conversation is that there is never one
option available to address any national problem. It is always
about choice of option and selection of priority. This being so
one should not be overwhelmed by contrary views but as a
people we must have the maturity to sensibly confront our
circumstances, whatever they might be and take the best option
available under the current circumstances. Options that give us
the best chance to overcome whatever difficulties which
challenge us, especially when our challenges are time sensitive.
The Basic Facts
There is no question that most of the country is now well aware
of the very bad economic and financial situation the country fell
into and a new government inherited in late 2015. After
enjoying energy sector revenues taxes and royalties
2010 - $15.7 B

Page 2
2014 - $19.4 B
2016 - $1.6 B
2017 - $2.1 B
In other words, the Government was faced with a fall of more
than 89% in its main revenue source between 2014 and
2017. (The picture below tells the story [P1] .)
From 2015, with the massive drop in revenues, the Government
was faced with bills for running the affairs of the country, which
it simply could not discharge. In this situation one of the main
concerns of the Government was the level of public payroll
employment. The Government is clearly one of the largest
employers of labour in the country and since Government

Page 3
revenues have declined so precipitously, as they did, it is to be
expected that public sector employment would be in serious
jeopardy. The government has been at pains to keep the level of
employment stable, even as we wind down the expenditure
highs.
Compounding this bad revenue situation is a second dimension
of the economic difficulties facing the country. The chronic
minimal economic growth situation in the country constitutes a
major difficulty. The fact is that for the past ten years the
economic growth of the country has been on a slight downward
trend. So even if we enjoyed a few growth spurts in that period
we were not able to maintain the growth, far less, increase it.
(We illustrate the growth trend in the picture below.)

Page 4
From a rate of growth of 4 ½ percent in 2007 we reached just
under 3% in 2013 and we have been declining steadily since
then, with the 2016 figure almost negative 3%.
The growth situation and the revenue position are no doubt
related since government revenue is a major portion of the
country’s national income. So if the national income is on a
negative long term downward trend the government revenue will
follow the same trend. This means that even as it tries to
stabilize the revenue situation the government is duty bound to
get the growth process restarted, since it is growth that will bring
new revenues for the government.
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Trinidad and Tobago
Annual Economic Growth 2007 - 2016 %
2007 2010 2013 2016

Page 5
Coping With the Situation
Over the past two years, in an effort to keep expenditure stable,
the government has been seeking to plug the gaps in its
revenue. However, the government has always been cognizant
of the fact that a healthy sustained revenue position will depend
on how much growth can be engendered.
The revenue situation facing us in 2018 remains a very
challenging one and the government will be taking steps
necessary to ensure that it will be tightening its revenue
collection mechanisms. The country, out of necessity should
remain open to any and all suggestions to boost revenue levels.
We are hopeful that today even at this late stage useful
suggestions can still be put forward, if not for Monday but
surely for the months and years ahead.
Today is simply a day where as a boost of public information,
all known and ready options, are allowed equal time so that the
population could draw its own conclusions as to the efficacy and
likely consequential outcomes of the various options advanced
from any quarter, government, academic or pontiff.

Page 6
Equally important will be the measures the Government will
take to better control its expenditure. We will put in place new
expenditure monitoring systems and a new procurement system
which should see expenditure levels lower than the present. We
are mindful of the loud calls to reduce Government expenditure
and we have certainly been moving in this direction. From a
level of record planned spending of $63 billion in 2015/2016,
the incoming new Government immediately, cautiously, moved
to $53 billion in 2016/2017, a reduction in expenditure of more
than 15%.
The Government knows that it has to be cautious about dramatic
expenditure cuts because of the possible negative impact on the
level of economic activity in the country in an already
contracting economy. What the Government has been able to
avoid is putting the economy in a steep and dizzy, downward
spiral because of the necessary expenditure cuts. Having said
this, the country needs to know, that faced with a possible deficit
in 2018 significantly about $14 billion dollars some further cuts
in expenditure will be unavoidable. There will be some things
which the country may want to happen in 2018 which will have

Page 7
to be postponed. This is where the patience of the population
will be important. As we position ourselves to do more with
less in the future, we will have to hold some strain for now.
Having said that we would of necessity have to now embark on
development program initiatives involving some government
spending and, most importantly, the mobilization of significant
private capital, to stimulate the economy from stable to growth,
if only slowly at first then to sustainable acceleration.
In this connection we would call on the country to support the
national effort as we seek to prioritize the use of our limited
inflows of foreign exchange. We will not be going back to the
exchange controls we had in place before 1993, but we will
certainly not be using up our foreign reserves to keep the
exchange rate at levels which will maximize our imports. When
we took the decision in 1993 to let the market substantially
determine the rate of exchange, we were accepting, in principle,
that we would live with any rate the foreign exchange market
determined. It is nevertheless true that when we were in a
period of favourable foreign exchange inflows, if the market
called for a big change in the exchange rate, we would use our

Page 8
reserves and put enough currency in the market to keep the rate
at a level with which we were comfortable. However, in this
period of significant decline in foreign exchange inflows it will
be unreasonable and dangerous to use up our foreign reserves as
we were accustomed to. This would be paving our way into the
arms of the IMF and that is something this government is NOT
prepared to do. What this means is that the only way in which
the exchange rate will be held to its traditional level is if we cut
back on our demand, bringing the demand more in line with the
reduced inflows. This is where prioritizing comes in. Our basic
position here will be that first priority for foreign exchange will
be given to those firms or industries that generate reasonable
amounts of foreign exchange. If the demand for foreign
exchange is not curtailed we will eventually be forced to live
with the rate determined by the market. This is where holding
strain and varying our taste come in.
Beyond the Fiscal Deficit
As we said before, the government is fully aware that we have to
go beyond dealing with the gap between revenues and
expenditure, as important as this is. What we have to do is to

Page 9
trigger the growth process in the economy and take the steps
required to sustain the growth once it is restarted. The basic
strategy here is a simple one: getting the private sector to invest
in targeted sectors or industries. Over the coming three years
the government intends to pick a number of sectors to lead the
revival and will work with the private sector to ramp up activity
in these areas. These sectors include:
 Export Manufacturing
 Tourism
 Housing
 Maritime Services
 Agriculture
 Financial Services and
 Creative Industries
To begin with, the fiscal regime will be configured to support
the spawning of new businesses and getting existing businesses
to adopt new modes and new lines of activity. Three or four
sectors will be selected each year with projects aimed at
generating foreign exchange and new levels of output. The

Page 10
expectation is that the phenomenal investment we have made in
education and human capital over the years will get
opportunities to bear fruit for the country.
The table below illustrates the cumulative approach to boosting
selected sectors.

Page 11
THREE –YEAR GROWTH STRATEGY
Year 1 Year2 Year 3 New Output Forex
S1 X1 F1
S2 X2 F2
S3 X3 F3
S4 X4 F4
S5 X5 F5
S6 X6 F6
S7 X7 F7
S8 X8 F8
S9 X9 F9
X
TOTAL
NEW OUPUT
F
TOTAL
NEW FOREX
Notes: Si refers to the sector selected for growth thrust
Xi refers to the output accumulated over three years
Fi refers to the foreign exchange generated by the respective outputs

Page 12
In a diagram, as shown here, three sectors are identified in each
year. Projects started in year 1 will be sustained over the three
year period, and the same will hold for projects started in years 2
and 3. The intention is for the cumulative output, X, to yield at
least 6% growth after three years, with 1 ½ % in the first year, 2
½ % in the second year and 3% in the third year.
The Government will set up an Implementation Team to
ensure that the specific objectives of the growth strategy are
realized. This means that, with a 2017 GDP estimate of $145
billion, new output in the first year is targeted at just over $2
billion, the second year at $3.7 billion and $4.5 billion in year 3.
Moreover, with government revenues running at just above 25%
of GDP, the expectation is for the deficit to be put on a declining
trend, starting with a reduction of $0.5 billion in the first year
and climbing to a reduction of $1.1 billion in year 3. These are
the targets which will guide the Implementation Team.
It should be pointed out that there will be at least two other sets
of activities which will contribute to growth over the period –

Page 13
the infrastructure investments planned for the period and the
expected revival in the energy sector. However, the truth is the
government is not depending on these activities since the aim is
to energize the diversification of the economy. The intention of
this government is to get the economy to learn how to grow
without depending on the energy sector. This, in our
understanding, is what diversification requires. What happens in
energy, whilst not being neglected nor minimised, will be like a
backbone or bonus to what were are doing elsewhere in the
economy.
In short the government is presenting a strategy which addresses
the two main problems facing the country - the sizeable stubborn
deficit and the need to reverse the growth trend of the economy.
Our plan is to set the economy on a path which will gradually
eliminate the deficit and put the economy on a moderate, but
steady, growth path over the next three years.
Once again I want to thank the staff at the Office of the Prime
Minister, ably supported by the staff at the Ministry of Finance,
for organising this worthy event at such short notice and I must

Page 14
thank all of you who accepted the invitation to be here for these
presentations, particularly those who have undertaken to make
the necessary presentations, not just to those of us gathered here
but the many tens of thousands who are listening and viewing
across the nation today. Let us not turn away our face from the
harsh realities of our circumstances but confront them with
boundless faith in our destiny, as we chart and steer the course
to a future which will be achieved only because we knew when
to take up our bed and walk confidently into a
brighter tomorrow.

[The_Honourable]

so wah rowly saying

Cliffs by Rowley:

- We looking for options. Not about the Budget but about brainstorming solutions to the financial situation.
- 90% fall of energy revenue from 2014-2017.
- Government is trying to keep the level of employment stable.
- Economic growth declining since 2007 and we are now in the negative.
- Revenue collection mechanisms to be tightened.
- Budget will be a deficit and further expenditure cuts are coming.
- Not going to the IMF.
- Priority given to businesses/firms who bring in foreign exchange earnings.
- Appeal to cutback on foreign exchange or else we will be dictated by the market (Devaluation).
- Focus on Export Manufacturing, Tourism, Housing, Maritime Services, Financial Services, Agriculture and Creative Industries.

Cliffs by Ministry of Finance:

- Deficit spending since 2009.
- GDP has declined, Unemployment rate is stable, Inflation rate has declined but still there.
- Taxes on income has declined. VAT taxes and Import duties has been stable.
- Taxes on income and profits of oil companies moved from 25 billion in 2008 to 472 million in 2017.
- Business levy and green fund now exceed collections from oil companies.
- Transfer & subsidies moved from 19.7 billion in 2007 to 32 billion in 2014. WASA, GATE and to a lesser extent T&TEC are the chief offenders.
- 6 billion in 2007 to 10 billion in 2017 went to backpay.
- Net Pubic sector debt went from 38.9 billion in 2007 to 93.74 billion in 2017.
- Borrowing Limits are increasing.
- We were not disciplined over the decades when it came to the Heritage & Stabilization fund which was developed after the 80's recession. HSF made a slight gain as of August 2017.
- Moody's & S&P rate the economy as stable. Moderate risk. More needs to be done with fiscal consolidation.
- Retail & Distribution sector take up most of FOREX. 2nd are Credit Cards.
- Forex is sold to authorized dealers every 2 weeks.

[Sōsuke Aizen]

Take that long ass post and put it where d monkey put its nuts!
Oh and hush yuh mouth and let Trinidad and Tobago strive...
Before I forget..... The citizens of Trinidad and Tobago are stupid!

[computercentral]

Meanwhile in Norway their oil fund reached 1trillion dollars worth

[shake d livin wake d dead]

to me it sounding like the following:

usd 8-1
electricity going up by a whole lot
traffic fines going up
alcho and cigarette as usual
gas subsidies gone
something about property tax

[Trinispougla]

[instagram][/instagram]

to me it sounding like the following:

usd 8-1
electricity going up by a whole lot
traffic fines going up
alcho and cigarette as usual
gas subsidies gone
something about property tax

Electricity and other utilities cannot increase unless the review commission does a full report. The board was commissioned with the project at tge beginning of the month. Rates might increase in the next budget but certainly not now

[The_Honourable]

Pre-budget discussion on CNC3.

[Cantmis]

[The_Honourable]

More cliffs:

Valmiki Arjoon - Economist:

- Approx 246 Billion plus in energy revenue was earned between 2004 - 2014. Most were mismanaged. 229.5 billion of it went to transfers and subsidies. Golden opportunity to diversify was lost. Agro-processing and Manufacturing would have benefited.
- Policy missteps across governments.
- Cost of business for small to medium enterprises is now harmful. (Downsizing, lack of reinvestment, little to no profits).
- We are borrowing against future growth. Threat of raising or establishing new taxes to counter this blocks out investments for national development.
- Need to raise finances: Public private partnerships (PPP), Foreign Direct Investment, Privatization of some state entities, IPO's etc.
- Global Competitiveness Report stated that difficulty to do business in T&T is caused by: Poor work ethic by the labor force, bureaucracy in the state sector, corruption, crime, and forex regulation. Unions need to help improve productivity levels.
- We are falling in the global corruption index.
- Crime is hindering investor and business confidence.
- Small and medium enterprises must be protected from large local conglomarates and external business threats.
- Focus on Global Logistics and Shipping using the PPP model.
- Local Stock Exchange has much more potential. Need more local companies listed.
- CEPEP & URP should be disbanded and reintegrated into PSIP.
- Dollar for Dollar Health System recommendation.

Dax Driver - Energy Chamber:

- There has been increased investment in upstream gas but little increase in government revenue because of low prices.
- 10 Billion of Oil & Gas Investment for the next 5 years.
- Energy efficiency needed in the Power Generation sector which will save gas and can be used in the Petrochemical sector.
- Electricity subsidy needs to be reviewed as both NGC & T&TEC are suffering.
- Platform fabrication sector needs to be improved in T&T or it will be lost to Mexico.
- Energy services for the Caribbean & Latin America should be looked into since they are doing offshore explorations and would need our industrial services here.
- Oil demand is waning as alternative energy efficient methods are getting more popular and acceptable (e.g the electric car). Oil companies are at risk if they have high extraction costs and will not make a profit if oil prices remain low. Petrotrin?
- Threat of an aging population which can affect pensions and NIB.

Roger Hosein - Economist:

- High levels of consumption has caused an inertia.
- 70% reformed process involves labor. #1 obstacle to business is Labor - poor work ethic.
- Manufacturing sector has suffered over the decades.
- Since 1999, economic growth has not happened because we more practiced redistribution of wealth.
- Suggestion for VAT to go back to 15%.
- Murder rate needs to come down.
- Government needs to establish communication with Non-Energy exporters to double exporters.
- More needs to be done on GATE.
- Raise retirement age from 60 to 65.
- Unemployment rate is 3.4%. Under-employment rate is 11.6%.
- Unions need to be on board if there is a temporary wage freeze.
- Statistics and Data needs to be readily available.
- We have poorly managed the economy from 2000 to 2015.

[sMASH]

Oil demands aren't waning enough yet due to renewable energy. Presently it's due to oversupply.
But as time goes on that factor will become significant and the supply/demand for gas will not be favorable.



I have a idea. Let's cut off tobago from petro dollars.



Okay more to that idea, cut off tobago from the money and use it as a live test for sustainable growth.

See what can be done in Tobago to be sufficient without petro money. And something works, translate it across to the main land.

First off the bats are ecotourism and food production.

[RedVEVO]

Oil demands aren't waning enough yet due to renewable energy. Presently it's due to oversupply.
But as time goes on that factor will become significant and the supply/demand for gas will not be favorable.



I have a idea. Let's cut off tobago from petro dollars.



Okay more to that idea, cut off tobago from the money and use it as a live test for sustainable growth.

See what can be done in Tobago to be sufficient without petro money. And something works, translate it across to the main land.

First off the bats are ecotourism and food production.

Turn Tobago in a " Casino Island " ..

Make it a tax free destination ..

Watch investment in-flow ..

Rowley is a duncey boy ..

[shake d livin wake d dead]

politicians only harp on food import bill and food production and doh do sheit about it...look at how much vacant land it have all over Trinidad, why not use CEPEP and URP to start planting something?? my side business is citrus and believe me when I tell you, there is little or no assistance doing this....chemicals are expensive af, buying equipment is the same(and doh say buy with a farmer's card cuz if you do, yuh taking ages to get back part of your money)...The hardest place to get a loan is from ADB(when you finish with them, yuh ringing yuh ears)...then there is the problem of thieves...Just two weeks ago some men clean out some of my oranges (I decide let me try and make a report).. you know them police tell me only the larceny squad could take such reports and they need to wait on assistance from some lab in St Joseph...mind you this took place in Biche(mind fcked).

in a nutshell we will never be in a position to be self sufficient and we will continue to import ridiculous amounts of food..Farmers who do it now, just do it to make an extra change or feed their families. They say we should place more emphasis on agriculture but the budget allocation is usually something to laugh about.

[hydroep]

LOL @ the foreign exchange rhetoric. Only certain portions of the population bearing this "burden".

The average man gonna get shafted with increased OPT and further limitations on US$ access.

Meanwhile companies and institutions that waste foreign exchange on luxuries that cater to the well to do in society probably gonna have unfettered access to what remains.

And after systematically dismantling our agricultural sector over the years with things like "mega farms" put up just for show the average joe eh going back to agriculture because that's "slavery" in some people's minds. But who knows...maybe the authorities do have a plan to deal with the expected influx of Venezuelan and Dominican immigrants after all...

[Monkey Man]

like i said watch and see there is gonna be a Furry Bank Tax imposition

[EFFECTIC DESIGNS]

The solution seems to be to legalize all the Vene and Dominican immigrants. I know a few businesses right now, grocery, hardware etc just waiting for the government to make these people legal so they can fire almost every single Trini working for them, apparently they fedup of having to find people to work for them or fedup of workers not coming to work or coming late everyday.

Everybody wanna go wuk CEPEP for 2 hours a day and then go home and relax nobody eh want to work things like agriculture so might aswell just legalize people who will do it. Up by me people starting to fix up their place because they finally getting masons who will work reasonable and reliable AKA Venezuelans and Guyanese.

[Ben_spanna]

IF they decided to allow the USD to be dependent on the market it could reach 11:1 I'm sure.................

it really is time to put an end to the damn handout that's called CEPEP, it does nothing for this country except encourage Unemployment in the private sector.
Alleged that North coast road will have a toll by the pillars if you want to go visit the beaches.....

Air conditioners going up by 100%
Additional 50% on mvt for all vehicles over 1999CCs

Internet access Tax to be introduced ................ so expect to pay more on your monthly Subscription.

motor vehicle annual Inspection rates for "T" and "H" supposed to increase by 200%

[toyolink]

With these dark predictions by all the 'experts' and the strong likely-hood that gov't will be ramping-up the burden of adjust on citizens.......The next reality would be the industrial and social unrest to follow.

[Ben_spanna]

Watson apparently has a new speedos and ready to swim AGAIN in the name of the Budget!

[timelapse]

like i said watch and see there is gonna be a Furry Bank Tax imposition

Is this where monkeys make their deposits?

[Monkey Man]

like i said watch and see there is gonna be a Furry Bank Tax imposition

Is this where monkeys make their deposits?

I guess you dunno about furry burgers too

[timelapse]

like i said watch and see there is gonna be a Furry Bank Tax imposition

Is this where monkeys make their deposits?

I guess you dunno about furry burgers too

What is this sorcery of which you speak?

[sMASH]

[novastar1]

This devaluation talk happens every year on tuner pre election
Turbo engine tax as well

Obviously a devaluation would mean and even worse state of say the public health system... Next to nothing in the health sector is manufactured in Trinidad, from the disposables to the meds themselves are imported
Would you buy a loaf of bread in the grocery for $50?
What about the people who are barely making ends meet now?.... Would everyone have to look for more illicit means of income just to keep their families fed?
Tuners need to think of necessities before luxury items like iPhones
Its depressing to think that the TT dollar was equivalent to the GBP when we left the colonies.

People don't think of these things until they are in need themselves
Not sure how much of tuner are really "stealth" 1%

[88sins]

sMASH, please remove that picture of Smeagol's uglier twin brother