Diversification! Oil prices falling!

[Habit7]

Bro, I work in the North Sea and production has not dropped. I shuttle back and forth on one producer that pumps out 200k barrels a day for the past 7 years and the other at 70k for the last yr. North Sea is still pumping at full blast. However new projects are on hold and those producing less 12k are on shut down repair / maintenance mode.

Oil is expected to drop and stay at $50. This will put facking projects on hold.

Again ban belly for what?
The UNC ran this nation on $9 a barrel.

Production in North Sea hasnt dropped yet but it cannot sustain with these low oil prices in such mature fields that use unconventionals.

UNC running the country on $9 for a couple months when the average price of oil was $20 is one thing. Having an average oil price of $120, budgeting for $80 and the reality being $60 is another.

[orangefox]

At $50 a barrel TT will dive into a recession. At $9 a depression.

Ok Dhanayshar!!!

Thanks ! LoL ...
Keep writing , I enjoy your commentary !!
Have fun !

[sMASH]

Methanol does not explode.

From my years of experience in he industry, u don't want extremely hazardous waste materials around.

My apprehension about the smelting waste was not due to there being proper hazmat procedures.
My apprehension was due to the fact that it would depend on trinis carrying out the procedure!

Let me tell you something, the garbage truck men who run around in 3/4 and shorts without gloves and sometimes just a normal sneakers, the same mentality towards safety exists with the people in control and the ground level men carrying it out.

If u all only knew how pt. Lisas is a ticking time bomb. Not because of the nature of the materials , but because the nature of the people running the places and working there.

I is one!

[sMASH]

Oh yeah... Ema in full effect... and still nothing.

The only reason why environmental standards csn be an issue is because of the foreign shareholders not wanting anything on their international record.

Additionally, ema more or less relies on breaches being reported to them. And they say that anyone can report he incidents. guess which worker going to report an incident... That most likely he was involved in... THat most likely that something failed because of mal-operation or insufficient maintence... And that same worker is reponisible for that... But it keeps back production so they keep the bosses happy and just work around.





Me eh want no smelter here bredds...

[zoom rader]

Methanol does not explode.

From my years of experience in he industry, u don't want extremely hazardous waste materials around.

My apprehension about the smelting waste was not due to there being proper hazmat procedures.
My apprehension was due to the fact that it would depend on trinis carrying out the procedure!

Let me tell you something, the garbage truck men who run around in 3/4 and shorts without gloves and sometimes just a normal sneakers, the same mentality towards safety exists with the people in control and the ground level men carrying it out.

If u all only knew how pt. Lisas is a ticking time bomb. Not because of the nature of the materials , but because the nature of the people running the places and working there.

I is one!

Knowing how unsafe trini operates by instructions from management, the aluminium company would have taken corners on safety. They did not get any clearance to export the waste products.
This is third world nation, bribes would have pass. The waste products would have remained in trini.
Same as Mitttal steel where they dump their radio active source on trini sold, because they can't get clearance to ship it to another country. The EMA does jack chit with this case.

[zoom rader]

Bro, I work in the North Sea and production has not dropped. I shuttle back and forth on one producer that pumps out 200k barrels a day for the past 7 years and the other at 70k for the last yr. North Sea is still pumping at full blast. However new projects are on hold and those producing less 12k are on shut down repair / maintenance mode.

Oil is expected to drop and stay at $50. This will put facking projects on hold.

Again ban belly for what?
The UNC ran this nation on $9 a barrel.

Production in North Sea hasnt dropped yet but it cannot sustain with these low oil prices in such mature fields that use unconventionals.

UNC running the country on $9 for a couple months when the average price of oil was $20 is one thing. Having an average oil price of $120, budgeting for $80 and the reality being $60 is another.

Bro, it was well calculated to keep production in the north Sea stable.
It costs producers an avg of $19 a barrel to produce in North Sea where they sell it at the current price. Do the maths .
They still making huge $$$.
However the price drop will put all projects on hold. Their main aim is to bust facking .

[sMASH]

Let me give u a little example that may not be libelous.

The photocopiers are stationed in the halls and have paper recycling bins riht next to it.
I had always admired how environmentally conscientious the company was for that little accomodation. It kinda let me look the other way for the harder more expensive HSE issues.

But then after some years I remembered that I don't know of any local places that recycle paper. Then I brushed it off as some contractor sending it to some foreign place

More time went and the question was still there. I am obsessive like that, I can't be satisfied with an answer pulled out of thin air.

I watched to see when the recycling bins were being emptied. This took some days because I had work to do and had to balance being there at the time were being emptied, which I did not know.

Lo and behold, when the janitors come twice a day they put it with the normal garbage.
They did not put the paper waste bag with the other bags, they emptied the waste bin into the other waste.


From captain to cook: the cook just concerned about getting their task complete and the captain just concerned about increasing production.

[toyolink]

The DOW took its biggest 1 day tumble since 2011 yesterday.
Good fiscal prudence dictates that we not take a 'wait and see' approach,but get busy.
Now isn't the time to be in denial.

[zoom rader]

Let me give u a little example that may not be libelous.

The photocopiers are stationed in the halls and have paper recycling bins riht next to it.
I had always admired how environmentally conscientious the company was for that little accomodation. It kinda let me look the other way for the harder more expensive HSE issues.

But then after some years I remembered that I don't know of any local places that recycle paper. Then I brushed it off as some contractor sending it to some foreign place

More time went and the question was still there. I am obsessive like that, I can't be satisfied with an answer pulled out of thin air.

I watched to see when the recycling bins were being emptied. This took some days because I had work to do and had to balance being there at the time were being emptied, which I did not know.

Lo and behold, when the janitors come twice a day they put it with the normal garbage.
They did not put the paper waste bag with the other bags, they emptied the waste bin into the other waste.


From captain to cook: the cook just concerned about getting their task complete and the captain just concerned about increasing production.

Yeah I know what you saying bro.
Trini is still primitive, where it comes to health and safety, recycling and attitudes.
This society is biased on making money and spending the least on above. Health and safety is the number one joke in trini, production out weights safety
A simple thing as lead batteries is just dumped anywhere.
Again EMA is useless.

[Redman]

Sadly there is huge employment opportunities in enforcement of all the regulations we should enforcing.

Why aren't we using msw sourced electricity instead of NatGas based while complaining about the land fill and Nat gas shortages.

[RASC]

Bro, I work in the North Sea and production has not dropped. I shuttle back and forth on one producer that pumps out 200k barrels a day for the past 7 years and the other at 70k for the last yr. North Sea is still pumping at full blast. However new projects are on hold and those producing less 12k are on shut down repair / maintenance mode.

Oil is expected to drop and stay at $50. This will put facking projects on hold.

Again ban belly for what?
The UNC ran this nation on $9 a barrel.

Production in North Sea hasnt dropped yet but it cannot sustain with these low oil prices in such mature fields that use unconventionals.

UNC running the country on $9 for a couple months when the average price of oil was $20 is one thing. Having an average oil price of $120, budgeting for $80 and the reality being $60 is another.

Bro, it was well calculated to keep production in the north Sea stable.
It costs producers an avg of $19 a barrel to produce in North Sea where they sell it at the current price. Do the maths .
They still making huge $$$.
However the price drop will put all projects on hold. Their main aim is to bust facking .

I have a slightly different opinion.

There is something else at play here... I don't believe the play here is to buss fraking but OVERALL rather TO SQUEEZE RUSSIA!

Putin within the last couple weeks has been running around Asia like a headless chicken trying to secure Russia's energy future amid lower and lower world prices. He's locking in long term agreements with China and India for example as the sanctions are really taking its tole on the Rubel.

The Rubel is at a five year low, ppls salaries are getting slashed across the board and we have not even hit the peak of winter. Internally Putin is losing face badly and its the combo of the low prices plus the sanctions- his only hope is for his "friends" to guarantee buy from him. The Saudi's + US (plus other axis powers) are coming together to buss Putin's back.

[SR]

Trinidad cannot survive in $9us a barrel in 2014/15 some of allyuh reeel delusional

[bluesclues]

Trinidad cannot survive in $9us a barrel in 2014/15 some of allyuh reeel delusional

$9 a barrel = $10 for a doubles and $20 from arima to citygate. death to all trinis they say.

[sMASH]

But is not only Russia getting squeezed. It bad for most countries

[Skanky]

I have a slightly different opinion.

There is something else at play here... I don't believe the play here is to buss fraking but OVERALL rather TO SQUEEZE RUSSIA!

Putin within the last couple weeks has been running around Asia like a headless chicken trying to secure Russia's energy future amid lower and lower world prices. He's locking in long term agreements with China and India for example as the sanctions are really taking its tole on the Rubel.

The Rubel is at a five year low, ppls salaries are getting slashed across the board and we have not even hit the peak of winter. Internally Putin is losing face badly and its the combo of the low prices plus the sanctions- his only hope is for his "friends" to guarantee buy from him. The Saudi's + US (plus other axis powers) are coming together to buss Putin's back.

This guy knows what's he's talking about.
The price of oil,the Ruble or any publicly traded commodity/currency has nothing to do with OPEC, supply and demand,news,fundamentals or anything else...It is simply whether the people shorting are stronger than those long or vice versa.
Fundamentals and news mean nothing in reality.What moves prices are the traders,hedge funds,investors etc who take multi-million/billion dollar positions and in so doing inherently move and or manipulate prices.

The US is squeezing Russia by sinking WTI and the Ruble.Putin tried to send a message by forgetting the snow plough on the runway which caused the death of the Total CEO, but the price of oil is nothing more than a political tool of war which is can be manipulated indirectly by the American government.

[sMASH]

Yes, but why should the world suffer for their personal squabbles?


Well, actually, the world will not suffer. Countries that do not rely heavily on fossil fuel sales and tourism not going to be as severely affected.

[RASC]

Yes, but why should the world suffer for their personal squabbles?

I don't think its that much of a personal squabble either.

This is all about the Kremlin's push for a bigger and meaner Mother Russia, Russian support of Syria, the Ukraine affair, the Georgia affair and all the Eastern block nations that wanna join the EU which Russia is fighting.

This is an ideological plus financial SOFT war we are experiencing right now.

[sMASH]

I kinda support Russia's stance on these issues.

[xtech]

There has only been one other time in history when the price of oil has crashed by more than 40 dollars in less than 6 months. The last time this happened was during the second half of 2008, and the beginning of that oil price crash preceded the great financial collapse that happened later that year by several months. Well, now it is happening again, but this time the stakes are even higher. When the price of oil falls dramatically, that is a sign that economic activity is slowing down. It can also have a tremendously destabilizing affect on financial markets. It would be difficult to overstate the importance of the shale oil boom to the U.S. economy. Thanks to this boom, the United States has become the largest oil producer on the entire planet. Yes, the U.S. now actually produces more oil than either Saudi Arabia or Russia.

If the price of oil stays at this level or continues falling, we will see a significant number of U.S. shale oil companies go out of business and large numbers of jobs will be lost. These Saudis know how to play hardball, and they are absolutely ruthless. In fact, we have seen this kind of scenario happen before…

Saudi Arabia will accept any price decline necessary to sweat whatever supply cuts are needed to balance the market and put the brakes on the US shale oil sector. This Saudi Arabia stand-off with US drillers and frackers is to see how the shale boys are going to stand up to a cheaper price. This has happened once before in the mid-1980’s when oil from Alaska’s and the North Sea came on line combined production of around 5-6 million barrels a day, OPEC set off a price war to compete for market share. As a result, the price of oil sank from around $40 to just under $10 a barrel by 1986.


For all intents and purposes, OPEC is now engaged in a “price war” with the United States producers. Since it’s very cheap to pump oil straight out of the ground in places like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait and more expensive to extract oil from shale formations in places like Texas and North Dakota. U.S. producers will become unprofitable and go out of business. Oil prices will stabilize and OPEC will once again maintain its market share.

[Redman]

The US cant afford lower prices forcing shale oil/gas drilling to stop or slow down.

Job growth is non existent in all other categories...and states.

So most of the world will be happy with higher prices.

[janfar]

North Sea companies have started lay offs. BH and Hal have already laid off 600 ppl in Norway. Aberdeen coming up. BP is also putting out statements that they will be reducing head count soon. Hal has put out a statement that they will be reducing Eastern Hemisphere head count by more than 15%.

Work in Saudi has ramped up though but ISIS just put out a direct threat to their supporters in KSA to attack any and all companies and personel of western allies.

This thing is going to be bitter...

[Habit7]

ZR safe, doh worry. While he has the strongest disdain for immigrants in Trinidad, the Brits will ensure he gets his ten day over other European nationals

[The_Honourable]

There has only been one other time in history when the price of oil has crashed by more than 40 dollars in less than 6 months. The last time this happened was during the second half of 2008, and the beginning of that oil price crash preceded the great financial collapse that happened later that year by several months. Well, now it is happening again, but this time the stakes are even higher. When the price of oil falls dramatically, that is a sign that economic activity is slowing down. It can also have a tremendously destabilizing affect on financial markets. It would be difficult to overstate the importance of the shale oil boom to the U.S. economy. Thanks to this boom, the United States has become the largest oil producer on the entire planet. Yes, the U.S. now actually produces more oil than either Saudi Arabia or Russia.

If the price of oil stays at this level or continues falling, we will see a significant number of U.S. shale oil companies go out of business and large numbers of jobs will be lost. These Saudis know how to play hardball, and they are absolutely ruthless. In fact, we have seen this kind of scenario happen before…

Saudi Arabia will accept any price decline necessary to sweat whatever supply cuts are needed to balance the market and put the brakes on the US shale oil sector. This Saudi Arabia stand-off with US drillers and frackers is to see how the shale boys are going to stand up to a cheaper price. This has happened once before in the mid-1980’s when oil from Alaska’s and the North Sea came on line combined production of around 5-6 million barrels a day, OPEC set off a price war to compete for market share. As a result, the price of oil sank from around $40 to just under $10 a barrel by 1986.


For all intents and purposes, OPEC is now engaged in a “price war” with the United States producers. Since it’s very cheap to pump oil straight out of the ground in places like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait and more expensive to extract oil from shale formations in places like Texas and North Dakota. U.S. producers will become unprofitable and go out of business. Oil prices will stabilize and OPEC will once again maintain its market share.

Agreed 100%

Think about the investors and banks (oil company loans) that pumped money into shale based on the assumption that oil prices would stay high. Very similar to when investors and banks pumped money into housing under the assumption that real estate prices would stay high which came crashing down in 08. If prices keep dropping, a lot of companies would default or even go bankrupt meaning these banks and investors are going to feel it big time. The banks themselves might default and would start asking the federal reserve for help. Unemployment numbers would start to rise where the US might slip into another recession which the US is not going to allow especially since a US presidential election is nearby. More money printing and bailouts perhaps?

Shale more than likely was what would of helped the United States get out of their financial predicament but... yeah... OPEC got nasty. Presidential elections are in 2016 so if things get worse, Obama and the Democrats are in big trouble... and they can't keep blaming George Bush. The federal reserve more than likely would restart the money printing (excess liquidity) where this would push oil prices higher.

I wouldn't even be surprised it a war breaks out somewhere... that would push oil prices up.

[sMASH]

Now u see what u start hitting there... The financial practices of the Americans . All those things like hedge funds and derivatives should be made illegal. Those things are more or less gambling, but with flashy words.
Excess liquidity, printing money, doesn't that drive up inflation and thus reduce economic power of the working class? Would it not increase the economic divide between rich and poor?
Printing money, In my day, when u didn't have the assets to back it up, we called that counterfeiting.
U gonna say that is real USD that they are printing. But it has no real value.

And all this coupled to fractional reserve banking... Lending what u don't have and then collecting interest.

America has the most sinful financial practices.

[bluesclues]

Now u see what u start hitting there... The financial practices of the Americans . All those things like hedge funds and derivatives should be made illegal. Those things are more or less gambling, but with flashy words.
Excess liquidity, printing money, doesn't that drive up inflation and thus reduce economic power of the working class? Would it not increase the economic divide between rich and poor?
Printing money, In my day, when u didn't have the assets to back it up, we called that counterfeiting.
U gonna say that is real USD that they are printing. But it has no real value.

And all this coupled to fractional reserve banking... Lending what u don't have and then collecting interest.

America has the most sinful financial practices.

what you just describe is nothing short of capitalism. this is the foundation behind generating gdp. the fractional reserve system. and about traders and investors, trust that even if they invested 1bn then over the time period theyve made 10bn, so a selloff is no hassle to them. the point is oil is a dying investment. everyone will now be looking to exit trading the market to trade something else, so if u invest now ud be buying into a selloff. that isnt to say you cant make money in a depreciating market. you just need to have some talent. the hunt is on for the future of energy investment.

[Skanky]

I can't believe than in 2014 people still believe that OPEC,oil supply/demand,Saudi,Kuwait,fracking,production,war,(anything other than the people who actually push the buy or sell buttons) have much influence the price of oil.

[bluesclues]

I can't believe than in 2014 people still believe that OPEC,oil supply/demand,Saudi,Kuwait,fracking,production,war,(anything other than the people who actually push the buy or sell buttons) have much influence the price of oil.

well that is commodities trading for you. investors invest on the prediction that new investors will come along. in short the stock market is a legal ponzi scheme. if the price starts falling by trade value that means companies have to cut back expenditure because they arent supported by growing investment anymore. imagine you have 80bn invested at $80 a barrell and price falls to $60 u just lost 20bn dollars. and that could happen with a meagre $100,000 sell order in a low liquidity market.

[zoom rader]

ZR safe, doh worry. While he has the strongest disdain for immigrants in Trinidad, the Brits will ensure he gets his ten day over other
European nationals

Yes I have the strongest disdain for illegal immigrants which includes caricom trash and so do many other trinis.
Yep and I am safe and so are the many other trinis in the North Sea, West Africa, middle east and Australia . Here's a clue the brits prefer Trinis and lately Indians from India for their higher level jobs over EU nations.
Duh beat up, oil jobs beat any dead end desk job.

[zoom rader]

North Sea companies have started lay offs. BH and Hal have already laid off 600 ppl in Norway. Aberdeen coming up. BP is also putting out statements that they will be reducing head count soon. Hal has put out a statement that they will be reducing Eastern Hemisphere head count by more than 15%.

Work in Saudi has ramped up though but ISIS just put out a direct threat to their supporters in KSA to attack any and all companies and personel of western allies.

This thing is going to be bitter...

Yeah part true, but its mostly service companies and contractors that are being down manned in Aberdeen. Projects are on hold.
The top producers are still pumping away on the larger platforms. The small producers <12k barrels will be down manning and shutdown maintenance work are to carried out . On the maintenance side, skilled tradesmen ( E&I Mechs and opps) will be retained for short term shutdowns.

[Redman]

I can't believe than in 2014 people still believe that OPEC,oil supply/demand,Saudi,Kuwait,fracking,production,war,(anything other than the people who actually push the buy or sell buttons) have much influence the price of oil.

well that is commodities trading for you. investors invest on the prediction that new investors will come along. in short the stock market is a legal ponzi scheme. if the price starts falling by trade value that means companies have to cut back expenditure because they arent supported by growing investment anymore. imagine you have 80bn invested at $80 a barrell and price falls to $60 u just lost 20bn dollars. and that could happen with a meagre $100,000 sell order in a low liquidity market.

I would like you to justify your claim.

FYI:
Crude trades in contract sizes of 1000 barrels ie the value is the price by 1000. Or 60,000 usd per contract today's prices.
The global daily volume is about 1000,000 contracts per day.

Please explain how you arrive at a single contract sell moving a market that trades 24 hrs per day

Tell us what you perceive to be a 'low liquidity market'.

Smh