FCB IPO

[Trinbagoviews]

It would make sense to have opinions that are backed up by fact-which clearly didnt happen in this case:

You cannot expect to get into bed with the government and not expect to pick up the government's diseases. The symptoms of these diseases which are already well entrenched in FCB's culture include inefficiency, corruption, nepotism , poor service and mismanagement. These symptoms do not auger well for profitability and stability in the long run.

^^^^ is in direct contradiction to the below facts on FCBs performance (taken off their website)

First Citizens is the highest-rated indigenous financial institution in the English-speaking Caribbean, with long term foreign currency counterparty credit ratings of Baa1 from Moody’s and BBB+ from Standard and Poor’s. The Group has successfully issued fixed income paper, which was over-subscribed in the international financial market, with the most recent being a US$175 million placement in February 2011.

In the year under review, the Bank won Bank Of The Year – Trinidad & Tobago and was named one of the Top 1,000 Banks In The World (The Banker Magazine). Other awards bestowed on the Bank over the years include: “the safest bank in the English-speaking Caribbean” in 2011 and 2010 (Global Finance Magazine); Best Bank In Trinidad & Tobago 2010 (World Finance); Bank Of The Year 2009 (The Banker Magazine, Latin Finance and World Finance).

Trinbago -I would like you to correlate the two please.

Things always appear well in the short-run then malaise and political interference kicks in. The only reason FCB appears healthy now is because they are connected via umbilical cord to the deep pockets of the state.... who funnels business to them e.g. CEPEP, SMART CARD, Govt Transactions etc.....

Eventually the percentage of Non-performing loans will increase since loans are granted based on politics rather than credit worthiness.

Profit margins get thin and eventually turn negative as politicians pressure the organization to absorb increased cost and not pass them on to consumers etc

Due to nepotism and political appointments the organization doesn't attract the best and brightest which affect the company's performance.....

Moreover the best and brightest leave due to frustration further perpetuating decline etc.......

Very predictable in the long run......

[kaylex]

Every investment has risks. You have to assess whether you’re being adequately compensated for those risks.
IPO investors have realized a 70% appreciation in share price (from $22 to $37.44) and are about to get a 5% dividend payout. I think 75% return is fair enough for whatever risks you feel the company is subject to.

When will the dividend be paid?

this*****

[ray d saint]

FIRST (Year Ended 30 September 2013)

Dividend declared on 9 December 2013: DPS of $1.09

Total assets: 6.6% higher at $36.2 billion vs. $34 billion in 2012
Net Income: 36% higher at $606 million vs. $446 million in 2012
Total Equity: 7.6% higher at $6.18 billion vs. $5.749 billion in 2012

Based on net income of $606.5 million, 2013 EPS is estimated to be $2.41 which is 35% higher than the EPS of $1.78 recorded in 2012.

At a current trading price of TT$37.00, FIRST is trading at a P/E of 15 times with a dividend yield of 2.9%.

NB Detailed financial statements are yet to be released as well as a payment and ex-div date for the declared dividend of $1.09.

[Redman]

It would make sense to have opinions that are backed up by fact-which clearly didnt happen in this case:

You cannot expect to get into bed with the government and not expect to pick up the government's diseases. The symptoms of these diseases which are already well entrenched in FCB's culture include inefficiency, corruption, nepotism , poor service and mismanagement. These symptoms do not auger well for profitability and stability in the long run.

^^^^ is in direct contradiction to the below facts on FCBs performance (taken off their website)

First Citizens is the highest-rated indigenous financial institution in the English-speaking Caribbean, with long term foreign currency counterparty credit ratings of Baa1 from Moody’s and BBB+ from Standard and Poor’s. The Group has successfully issued fixed income paper, which was over-subscribed in the international financial market, with the most recent being a US$175 million placement in February 2011.

In the year under review, the Bank won Bank Of The Year – Trinidad & Tobago and was named one of the Top 1,000 Banks In The World (The Banker Magazine). Other awards bestowed on the Bank over the years include: “the safest bank in the English-speaking Caribbean” in 2011 and 2010 (Global Finance Magazine); Best Bank In Trinidad & Tobago 2010 (World Finance); Bank Of The Year 2009 (The Banker Magazine, Latin Finance and World Finance).

Trinbago -I would like you to correlate the two please.

Things always appear well in the short-run then malaise and political interference kicks in. The only reason FCB appears healthy now is because they are connected via umbilical cord to the deep pockets of the state.... who funnels business to them e.g. CEPEP, SMART CARD, Govt Transactions etc.....

Eventually the percentage of Non-performing loans will increase since loans are granted based on politics rather than credit worthiness.

Profit margins get thin and eventually turn negative as politicians pressure the organization to absorb increased cost and not pass them on to consumers etc

Due to nepotism and political appointments the organization doesn't attract the best and brightest which affect the company's performance.....

Moreover the best and brightest leave due to frustration further perpetuating decline etc.......

Very predictable in the long run......

In the long run we all dead.
But that prediction has absolutely no value.

its amazing the credence you give to your opinion in the absence of any supporting evidence.
The awards and innovation have been around since mid 90s -little more than the short term.

You are just speculating.And its weak speculation since you are data mining-TCL,CAL etc while ignoring the successful examples of the same structure.
Im not advocating GORTT involvement-but in this case FCB worked and continues to work.

And below is the short term dressing that you alluded to.

First Citizens Historical Highlights

First Citizens Bank celebrates over a decade of firsts. Some of these achievements are as follows:

2012:

Standard & Poor's and Moody's maintained the Group's investment grade rating at BBB+ and Baa1
The Banker Magazine named the Bank as the Best Bank in Trinidad & Tobago and one of the Top 1,000 World Banks

2011:

Standard & Poor's and Moody's maintained the Group's investment grade rating at BBB+ and Baa1
Global Finance rating as one of the Safest Emerging Markets Banks in Latin America

2010:

World Finance's "Best Bank 2010"
Global Finance - Rated among the top 5 safest Banks in Latin America and the Caribbean

2009:

World Finance – Best Bank Trinidad & Tobago World Finance Banking Award 2009
Latin Finance – Latin Finance Bank of the Year 2009
The Banker Magazine – Bank of the Year 2009
Click here to find out more ...

2008:

Standard & Poor's Rating Service – affirmation of its counter-party credit rating and CD rating of 'BBB+/A-2'
First Citizens achieved the rating of the two US$100 million Bonds Issued on the international market by First Citizens (St. Lucia) Limited were also affirmed at 'BBB+'

2007:

Published the First Citizens Story in the form of a book entitled "On Becoming First".

2006:

The Bank shrunk its non performing loans to 0.8%, the lowest in the sector (two percent is the industry norm).
Opened the Bank's first Financial Centre the Movie Towne, which concentrated on high-end services rather than day-to-day retail services.

2001 to 2006:

Highest international credit ratings for an indigenous bank from Standard & Poor's and Moody's Investor Services Inc.

2005:

First Bank to establish an Energy Focused Investment Mutual Fund.
'The Banker' chose First Citizens as Bank of the Year.

2004 & 2005:

First indigenous financial institution to issue to US$100M bonds in the international financial market.

2004:

Became the third largest Bank in the country with assets of over $7 Billion Dollars.

2003:

Rated First in Soundness, Banker Magazine. First and only local bank to be accepted into International Finance Corporation's B-Loan programme.

2002:

"Bank of the Year," Latin Finance.

2001:

First and only Bank to be awarded the Tyrone Samlalsingh Pinnacle Award for e-innovation (Awarded again in 2003 and 2005).

2000:

First Bank in the English-speaking Caribbean to launch an Internet Banking Service.

1995:

First Citizens introduced MIDAS, the first online, real-time cash-management system for companies and statutory bodies. This service was upgraded in 2002.

1994:

First local bank to issue an international VISA Gold Credit Card.Standard & Poor's Rating Service – affirmation of its counter-party credit rating and CD rating of 'BBB+/A-2'

[ray d saint]

DPS: $1.09
Ex-div Date: 27 December 2013
Payment Date: 24 January 2014

[ray d saint]

btw... 'Trinbagoviews'

It is simple, if you do not have confidence in the equity, do not invest, but while u r at it... do not make statements that are 'opinions' which lack factual support....

jus saying....

[Redman]

Duplicate

[Country_Bookie]

DPS: $1.09
Ex-div Date: 27 December 2013
Payment Date: 24 January 2014

They need to improve on the timing of the dividend payment. RBL has the same year end (Sep 30th) and they paid their dividend on December 1st. FCB paying theirs almost two months later.

[Trinbagoviews]

Stop drinking the cool aid..... You may be in too deeply invested already to realize or acknowledge it but the FCB business model is predicated on being scaffolded by the state. It's credit worthiness and profitability would immediately decline sharply if

1. It was truly privatized and
2. The govt experienced financial difficulty (like in the late 80s)

Good luck with everything though.... let me know how it works out....

[Trinbagoviews]

Exactly what happened with NFM yesterday will eventually happen to FCB .... where political interference trumps proper business decision making to the detriment of shareholders ....

[desifemlove]

Stop drinking the cool aid..... You may be in too deeply invested already to realize or acknowledge it but the FCB business model is predicated on being scaffolded by the state. It's credit worthiness and profitability would immediately decline sharply if

1. It was truly privatized and
2. The govt experienced financial difficulty (like in the late 80s)

Good luck with everything though.... let me know how it works out....

er... ent commercial banking one of the world's most profitable industries? i ent see why privatisation can't work in phases, or with an eventual small state holding like 10% or so.

[desifemlove]

I personally would be very weary as an investor to be unequally yoked to the government. Simply because; the state and the private sector's motives are diametrically opposed.

The private investor on one hand has a genuine profit motive whereas politicians and bureaucrats are interested in expanding their control and their respective budgets at the expense of efficiency and profitability. This is not a marriage that will end well for at least one of the parties.

You cannot expect to get into bed with the government and not expect to pick up the government's diseases. The symptoms of these diseases which are already well entrenched in FCB's culture include inefficiency, corruption, nepotism , poor service and mismanagement. These symptoms do not auger well for profitability and stability in the long run.



Although investors may feel frustrated by the limited investment vehicles available in T&T, they should not settle for the tallest midget in the room but rather opt for a totally different sphere in their quest for investment options.

Remember .... TCL .... NFM .... Caribbean Airlines ..... etc

So all corporate cultures in private sector are non-corrupt and nepotistic? lolololol!! bess laugh dey, ent? A business model can be synthesised from RBL, RBC, or Scotia. Any part privatisation would work IMO with limited state input. If Kamla wants to appoint a non-executive board member to represent state interests, so be it.

[crazychinee]

And while everyone else is rushing FCB they didn't observe TCL..

[jusjase44]

what happened with TCL?????????????

[DVSTT]

Stock currently at $40.63. Incredible hike for the new year. $3.37 from 100% turn over.

*$40.86

[White CZ4A]

I invested the maximum they allowed.
Selling now. Just about doubled it in 4 months. 90% up from $22.
Not a bad investment.

[jusjase44]

42.50

[tr1ad]

i'll give it two months again before selling, then the real return would show

[crash dummy]

Some real pwnage in this thread boy :lol;
Trinbagoviews sound like a good few pastors around. Spew opinions like fact and like they were there when xyz happened: speaking with Authority

[pugboy]

Yeah the stock market usually jumps at the start of the year.
You guys lucky to have bought in.

i'll give it two months again before selling, then the real return would show

[jusjase44]

42.86

[zoom rader]

42.86

chach ching !!!

[crazychinee]

I think it only started a steady climb again when the dividend payout information was published.

[White CZ4A]

i'll give it two months again before selling, then the real return would show

Typically, people wait for the first dividend to be paid and then sell. Somehow I feel after the dividend the price will come down. Which is why I'm selling now.

[Redman]

Well sell half and take a free ride.....

The difficulty now is what to do with the profits.....GHL??

If you own the stock now the way forward is a tough call.

Without looking at the numbers I am wondering if we look at the comparable entity RBL and compare the share price,float,revenues etc if one could build the case to hold the stock Long Term in anticipation of a split??????

Looking at GHL RBTT RBL-all ran up and split several times-so we might have an opportunity to do the same with FCB-but it will require patience..

Im just throwing this out ....I dont own any FCB.

[trinigamer]

Yes, stocks normally drop on or just after the ex-dividend date. Its expected to drop, but stocks are a long term investment, should look at the trend over time.

[tr1ad]

i'll give it two months again before selling, then the real return would show

Typically, people wait for the first dividend to be paid and then sell. Somehow I feel after the dividend the price will come down. Which is why I'm selling now.

i'll look at probably moving 40% at the time of dividend and leave the remainder as long term

[Country_Bookie]

Allyuh who looking to sell, I hope allyuh have a plan where to invest the money. Equity investing is for the long term, because over the long term, it don’t have much investments that give a better return than equities. That doesn’t mean you just buy and hold blindly, it means you keep monitoring the stocks you own to determine whether the company is still a good company to own, has prospects for growth, pays a good dividend etc.

FWIW, here’s a look at how the stocks on the TTSE performed for the last 10 years, from Dec 31, 2003-Dec 31, 2013:


Stock 10 Yr Return
AGL 197%
AHL 193%
BER 20%
CCN 167% (now OCM)
FCI -19%
FFL 128%
GKC -41%
GHL -56%
JMMB -49%
NCBJ -30%
NEL 197%
NFM -72%
NML 123%
PLD -67%
PHL 115%
RML 263%
RBL 117%
SBTT 162% (even without accounting for stock split)
TCL -63%
WCO 503%

NFM and PLD were always basket cases, and I suppose more ammo for Trinbagoviews. GHL made bad investments in the UK/US and TCL has been badly mis-managed, but most of the other local stocks have more than doubled over the last decade. Why sell and invest in mutual funds paying 2%?

[jusjase44]

hmmm interesting

[kl122]

Phoenix park ipo coming out soon, so I wud expect to see a lot of ppl selln their fcb shares