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EmilioA wrote: Now there is a 5th factor in the election. A swing vote that can move 8-10 seats.
desifemlove wrote:Dizzy28 wrote:bluefete wrote:RASC wrote:Rambarran should be updating his LinkedIn all now looking ah wuk overseas. Is only a matter of time before the hammer fall.
Terrence Farrell is being lined up for his position.
I hold no love for Jwala(still can't get my own US from UTC) but his position is supposed to be non partisan and free from politics. His contract isn't ending soon and to fire him without solid evidencial reasons means the PNM has interfered where there are not supposed to. There is a fine line between new regime and witchhunt.
what he done wrong? he stood up to Kamla and provided reports that the economy has not grown. i doh see he as a sap/sycophant/eat ah food. and two wrongs don't make a right...jus cos UNC does appoint toadies, PNM shouldn't go down dat root.
EmilioA wrote:Well in my little superficial analysis of the 2015 numbers I've come to this conclusion. The PP has fallen back to the combined UNC/COP numbers of 2007 , while all those NEW votes they picked up in 2010 instead of returning to the "not voting" column instead shifted to the PNM in this election.
This is an unexpected development. it means that for the first time there really is a swing vote in Trinidad.
Usually the PNM has a stable fixed number of votes and the question is whether the ULF/UNC can ally with the ONR/NAR/COP in the corridor and DAC/NAR/TOP in Tobago to win the election.
Now there is a 5th factor in the election. A swing vote that can move 8-10 seats.
RBphoto wrote:Just asking, when are local government elections due constitutionally?
rfari wrote:RBphoto wrote:Just asking, when are local government elections due constitutionally?
Next year
Redman wrote:steups
such gracious insincerity
Redman wrote:EmilioA wrote:Well in my little superficial analysis of the 2015 numbers I've come to this conclusion. The PP has fallen back to the combined UNC/COP numbers of 2007 , while all those NEW votes they picked up in 2010 instead of returning to the "not voting" column instead shifted to the PNM in this election.
This is an unexpected development. it means that for the first time there really is a swing vote in Trinidad.
Usually the PNM has a stable fixed number of votes and the question is whether the ULF/UNC can ally with the ONR/NAR/COP in the corridor and DAC/NAR/TOP in Tobago to win the election.
Now there is a 5th factor in the election. A swing vote that can move 8-10 seats.
The swing is obvious in the numbers back to 1986.
Both parties have sufficient hardcore votes to 'own' 30-40% of the electorate,but not enough to take it past the post.
based on the low point for the PNM in 86 and low point for the UNC after the 1st term
What will win the election is the swing vote...that takes the party past the post.
both parties have to worth to attract the additional votes to win...the 'xyz till ah deds'..are dying out
the COP provided that as a continuation of the head they built from 2007 a place for the swing vote to be .....the demographic that voted COP was an issues based,non hardcore, disenfranchised by traditional PNM/UNC dynamic voter who was willing to try something new.
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Morpheus wrote:Shah is a boss.....
The_Honourable wrote:Brilliant article by Raffique Shah. Because of its significance, i'm posting it in full.
Projections, not predictions: why the pollsters got it wrong
My last two columns, one titled “Rowley rising” and the other “Lament for a falling leader”, were seen by many of my readers as being almost prophetic in the wake of last Monday’s election results.
Had I made public another document in which I analysed the results in all 41 constituencies from 2007 onwards, using historical data and trends, and projecting the 2015 results—which I circulated only to close friends—I might have been accused of being an “obeahman” or “seer.”
As someone who steers clear of the spiritual world and who certainly does not believe in “obeah”, I must say that my accurate projections—not predictions—were based on a scientific analysis of hard data, on my ability to read the mood of the electorate by monitoring public meetings and similar indicators, by assessing the two contending parties, their strategies, their leaders, and most of all by being objective.
Note well that I had long dismissed Jack Warner and the ILP and wrote as much repeatedly, saying that if Jack polled 1,000 votes anywhere, I’d be surprised.
Essentially, I argued that the election will be won on the results from eight constituencies, ranked by degree of marginality as follows: San Fernando West, Tunapuna, St Joseph, Barataria/San Juan, Mayaro, Pointe-a-Pierre, Moruga/Tableland and Chaguanas East.
La Horquetta/Talparo and Toco/Sangre Grande were never marginal. They were won by the PP in 2010 in an extraordinary general election that saw the coalition ride a wave of popularity, taking other PNM strongholds such as Arima, Lopinot/Bon Air, the two Tobago seats, and scoring very well in all three Diego Martin seats as well as in other similar constituencies.
Following its manifest decline in popularity that showed up in the 2013 local government elections, which pushed the PP back into its base—and even there it was under threat—the UNC, with the COP being a spent force, went into this general election with 14 safe seats, having to fight to win all eight marginal and sub-marginal seats if it were to win the election.
The PNM, on the other hand, having wrested all of the East-West corridor corporations as well as San Fernando from the PP in 2013, now had 19 safe seats, and needed only two to take it over the top.
I saw those two as San Fernando West and Tunapuna, which it won comfortably. Anything beyond that was gravy—which it got in St Joseph (by over 1,500 votes) and Moruga/Tableland (a close 533).
By similar token, the UNC won Barataria/San Juan by 540 votes, and Pointe-a-Pierre and Chaguanas East by approximately 1,500 votes.
One constituency in which I was dead wrong is Mayaro. I thought Clarence Rambharat had done enough, and with the UNC finally naming its candidate on Nomination Day, the PNM stood a good chance of winning. Clearly, the reshuffling of polling divisions before the election benefitted the UNC, which won the seat by 2,900 votes.
Now that the dust has settled—we can forget the UNC’s spurious challenge: if they do get the courts to rule in their favour and the country has to return to the polls, people’s anger will wipe them off the map—there are some questions to be answered.
Among the recognised pollsters, only Louis Bertrand called it right. The well-respected Nigel Henry cannot claim accuracy, having categorised La Horquetta/Talparo and Toco/Grande as marginal on the eve of the election.
Also, to the end, he stuck with 30 percent of the electorate being undecided, and worse, with hours to go, he asked people who they would vote for if the election were called then. I think Nigel needs to study Trinidad’s voters—and Tobago’s (there are differences)—more closely.
Others like Vishnu Bisram (NACTA) and certain analysts and columnists lost all objectivity, calling the election results the way they wanted them, not the way they were seeing them.
If they were bad, UNC apologists were worse. One Kama Maharaj wrote of the “whooping (sic) 147,000-vote licks” the PP put on the PNM in 2010, decreeing there was no way the latter could overcome that.
Political scientist Dr Hamid Ghany saw the PP leading in St Joseph, Tunapuna, Point Fortin and Talparo, with only San Fernando West and Toco too close to call. Is this a case of the “nutty professor?”
And on Election Day, UNC bloggers wrote of “exit polls” showing the coalition having a “commanding lead.” Really? Who conducted this US-style exercise, circus clown Rodney Charles?
Maybe it was he who had Kamla Persad-Bissessar saying that her party was leading at six o’clock but losing at seven!
Off with his head, Kamla: he made you look delusional in defeat.
Source: http://wired868.com/2015/09/14/projecti ... -it-wrong/
Hyperion wrote:. . . Never has a government placed so much emphasis on subterfuge and fear to rule. And what they couldn't control they tried to destroy. They blurred the lines totally between political party and government, real tribal mentality. I hope they never see the corridors of power again.
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