Moody's downgrades T&T again: "Policy responses unlikely to be effective"

[Duane 3NE 2NR]

International credit rating agency, Moody's, has downgraded Trinidad and Tobago's ratings once more, with a negative outlook.

The announcement was made in a statement today.

Moody's says the Government's policies in response to the oil and gas prices, are unlikely to have any timely effects because of weak execution.

It expects the country to be faced with low oil prices through 2018.

The following is Moody's full statement:

"Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded Trinidad and Tobago's ratings to Baa3 from Baa2 and assigned a negative outlook based on the following key drivers:

1. Despite the authorities' fiscal consolidation efforts, low oil and gas prices will negatively and materially undermine the country's economic and government financial strength at least throughout 2018.

2. There is a high likelihood that the policy response to the commodity price shock will not be as timely and effective as required due to lack of macroeconomic data and weak policy execution capacity.

This rating action closes the review period initiated on 4 March when Moody's placed the ratings on review for a possible downgrade.

The negative outlook captures lack of visibility on how effective fiscal consolidation efforts will ultimately be and the extent to which fiscal consolidation will have to rely on one-off measures in the coming 1 to 2 years.

The negative outlook also captures the possibility that government support in the form of loan guarantees to Petroleum Company of Trinidad & Tobago (Petrotrin, Ba3) could be higher than currently assumed.

Trinidad and Tobago's foreign-currency bond and deposits ceilings were lowered to Baa2/P-3 and Baa3/P-3 from A3/P-2 and Baa2/P-3, respectively. At the same time, the local-currency bond and deposits country ceilings were lowered to Baa1 from A3.

http://www.cnc3.co.tt/press-release/moo ... -effective

[jhonnieblue]

Smh

[DVSTT]

2018.... 2 more years!! I don't want to think about what a 2 year recession will do to us.

[Miktay]

U lucky if iz only 2...

[eliteauto]

no surprise here, no clear cut policy and worse no policy implementation by the Gov't, too much rhetoric about diversification but no implementation, too many persons using politics to stymie adaptation and innovation talking about "manufactured recession to benefit financiers" gobbled up the lowest economic classes while the rich adapt to the new realities ( so obviously they will remain successful thus "validating" the financiers statement duh)

We remain "lucky" despite all the ole talk we have a year balance of payments available when the norm is 3 months, we're also projecting a 2% contraction for the economy something in line with other external predictions so at least the Min of Finance is honest. It's time ppl wake up to the new realities and stop clinging to the transfers and subsidies of the past, those days are over.
Many economists have suggested much harsher initiatives that those implemented by the Gov't, if they are taken up we might see mass emigration or corner the export market on froth

[DVSTT]

It was probably discussed before, but why don't we export cocoa? Isn't there a forecasted chocolate shortage? Isn't our cocoa some of the best in the world? Exporting on a large scale is a step in the right direction IMO.

[eliteauto]

It was probably discussed before, but why don't we export cocoa? Isn't there a forecasted chocolate shortage? Isn't our cocoa some of the best in the world? Exporting on a large scale is a step in the right direction IMO.

Yes we have high quality trinitario beans here, I don't know much about world chocolate markets but I do know there are several organisations here that are pushing to grow the local coffee and chocolate industries there is the umbrella group Destination Chocolate of which I'm a member which ties in gastro-tourism and crafts with a focus on cocoa, Brasso Seco Paria TAC who hosts festivals, invite international experts( there's an event tomorrow on artisanal chocolate) and indigenous food events, Sun Eaters etc. these are all ways to diversify and get foreign exchange via tourism but there needs to be infrastructural development by Gov't to help it grow

[EmilioA]

It was probably discussed before, but why don't we export cocoa? Isn't there a forecasted chocolate shortage? Isn't our cocoa some of the best in the world? Exporting on a large scale is a step in the right direction IMO.

You have to grow it first before you could export it.

And Trinidadians hate agriculture. We too good for that. Ironically is the half whites who most interested in actually promoting agri in Trinidad.

[De Dragon]

You'd think that with Moody's constant citing of our poor statistical data collection, the Government's response would be more clear and decisive than "well de last setta dem lef it so"

[ingalook]

It was probably discussed before, but why don't we export cocoa? Isn't there a forecasted chocolate shortage? Isn't our cocoa some of the best in the world? Exporting on a large scale is a step in the right direction IMO.

Yes we have high quality trinitario beans here, I don't know much about world chocolate markets but I do know there are several organisations here that are pushing to grow the local coffee and chocolate industries there is the umbrella group Destination Chocolate of which I'm a member which ties in gastro-tourism and crafts with a focus on cocoa, Brasso Seco Paria TAC who hosts festivals, invite international experts( there's an event tomorrow on artisanal chocolate) and indigenous food events, Sun Eaters etc. these are all ways to diversify and get foreign exchange via tourism but there needs to be infrastructural development by Gov't to help it grow

Our flora and fauna are so unique, so is the mix of cultures, food, fruits etc. We really are blessed

Eco-tourism is a much better direction for the country, because it would force us to actually preserve and appreciate our natural wonders

Culinary tourism of course is another no-brainier, if you have done any amount of travelling you would agree that so much of our food is hard to beat

There is too much focus on promoting "the greatest show on earth" while it is a spectacle, it is undeniably - seasonal, plus in a bid to make it more palatable to tourist much of the spirit and soul of OUR Carnival is being lost, replaces by beads, feathers and pasties.

While I enjoy looking at pictures and yelling "eeet faaat" as much as the next tuner, I think in trying to make our Carnival more marketable we have actually done the opposite - what really differentiates a picture of a pretty girl in Rio in beads and feathers from a picture of a girl from Trinidad in beads and feathers??? Our "traditional" mas - the Midnight Robbers, Moko Jumbie, Red Indian, Sailors etc. that is what made us unique - and unique is what is being sought out by tourist.

[Miktay]

In truth. All of these diversification initiatives can never be sustainably incentivized by Gubbament.

[GA16]

If only Kamla did not tief out the money eah??

[bluesclues]

Pnm government sold our sovereignty with wasteful spending a lack of vision and diversification and keynesian remedies misused and mis-applied. So imbert gone cap in hand to the imf but look, moodys already give us the forecast, the same thing i said. Imf will find pnm's plans to revive the economy are insufficient and so will not lend them any money or categorize them as in a crisis. When the hard times really come because i can tell u imbert has no idea how to fix the problem of usd drain.... none. Imf will send UN troops to occupy our country as it descends into chaos and achieves crisis lending categorization. But help will come at a cost. The cost of international players laughing at the dotish indotrini and indo blackboys who run their country into the ground, failed their ppl and sold them into slavery.

[neilsingh100]

Pnm government sold our sovereignty with wasteful spending a lack of vision and diversification and keynesian remedies misused and mis-applied. So imbert gone cap in hand to the imf but look, moodys already give us the forecast, the same thing i said. Imf will find pnm's plans to revive the economy are insufficient and so will not lend them any money or categorize them as in a crisis. When the hard times really come because i can tell u imbert has no idea how to fix the problem of usd drain.... none. Imf will send UN troops to occupy our country as it descends into chaos and achieves crisis lending categorization. But help will come at a cost. The cost of international players laughing at the dotish indotrini and indo blackboys who run their country into the ground, failed their ppl and sold them into slavery.

The UNC is a spend and thief government. They have not done anything during their previous times is government to meaningfully diversify the economy and earn foreign exchange. PNM can be credited for Pt. Lisas and AtlanticLNG which resulted in 15 years of growth 1992-2007. The UNC's biggest successes/failures are Miss Universe and Piarco Int't Airport so PNM is best bet right now.

[Miktay]

Pnm government sold our sovereignty with wasteful spending a lack of vision and diversification and keynesian remedies misused and mis-applied. So imbert gone cap in hand to the imf but look, moodys already give us the forecast, the same thing i said. Imf will find pnm's plans to revive the economy are insufficient and so will not lend them any money or categorize them as in a crisis. When the hard times really come because i can tell u imbert has no idea how to fix the problem of usd drain.... none. Imf will send UN troops to occupy our country as it descends into chaos and achieves crisis lending categorization. But help will come at a cost. The cost of international players laughing at the dotish indotrini and indo blackboys who run their country into the ground, failed their ppl and sold them into slavery.

* Keynesian remedy izan oxymoron.

* Diversification by Gubbament degree iz a myth.

* Every country goes cap in hand 2 the IMF in bad economic times. Those that don't end up like Venezuela.

* UN troops? Not likely in the short term. We not near a humanitarian crisis.

* most everyone in the G7 laughs at developing countries. And when developing countries perform theys get vex.

[mrtrini45]

If only Kamla did not tief out the money eah??

This started with the PNM before remember manning calder hart and the boys

[GA16]

If only Kamla did not tief out the money eah??

This started with the PNM before remember manning calder hart and the boys

I was being sarcastic there eah......

[brams112]

It was probably discussed before, but why don't we export cocoa? Isn't there a forecasted chocolate shortage? Isn't our cocoa some of the best in the world? Exporting on a large scale is a step in the right direction IMO.

You have to grow it first before you could export it.

And Trinidadians hate agriculture. We too good for that. Ironically is the half whites who most interested in actually promoting agri in Trinidad.

Cocoa and coffee don't grow like cane,peas or corn,got to have some form of shelter for the trees,plus the grower need lots of workers to maintain the trees ,reap and prepare the beans for export,if you don't know or don't understand the science of producing,well you are wasting your time.When I was younger,around thirty plus years my grandfather grew cocoa,that was lots of work to bring it to cocoa tea.Right now there are lots of abandoned estates that will take a huge investment to revive,but the rewards will take more than 10years to recover.

[De Dragon]

Pnm government sold our sovereignty with wasteful spending a lack of vision and diversification and keynesian remedies misused and mis-applied. So imbert gone cap in hand to the imf but look, moodys already give us the forecast, the same thing i said. Imf will find pnm's plans to revive the economy are insufficient and so will not lend them any money or categorize them as in a crisis. When the hard times really come because i can tell u imbert has no idea how to fix the problem of usd drain.... none. Imf will send UN troops to occupy our country as it descends into chaos and achieves crisis lending categorization. But help will come at a cost. The cost of international players laughing at the dotish indotrini and indo blackboys who run their country into the ground, failed their ppl and sold them into slavery.

The UNC is a spend and thief government. They have not done anything during their previous times is government to meaningfully diversify the economy and earn foreign exchange. PNM can be credited for Pt. Lisas and AtlanticLNG which resulted in 15 years of growth 1992-2007. The UNC's biggest successes/failures are Miss Universe and Piarco Int't Airport so PNM is best bet right now.

Point Lisas yes, but selling away our natural gas, precisely when we need it, for relative pittances is an achievement?

[De Dragon]

If only Kamla did not tief out the money eah??

Yes because Moody's downgrades by other administrations were mismanagement, corruption etc, but with this Gov't its the low oil/gas prices and other factors beyond their control

[kjaglal76v2]

lol, I remember when this happened under the PP govt, every PNM germ crawl out from their galavanize shack to talk ish :ROFL:

where are they now

[Numb3r4]

How low can we go?

[desifemlove]

Pnm government sold our sovereignty with wasteful spending a lack of vision and diversification and keynesian remedies misused and mis-applied. So imbert gone cap in hand to the imf but look, moodys already give us the forecast, the same thing i said. Imf will find pnm's plans to revive the economy are insufficient and so will not lend them any money or categorize them as in a crisis. When the hard times really come because i can tell u imbert has no idea how to fix the problem of usd drain.... none. Imf will send UN troops to occupy our country as it descends into chaos and achieves crisis lending categorization. But help will come at a cost. The cost of international players laughing at the dotish indotrini and indo blackboys who run their country into the ground, failed their ppl and sold them into slavery.

the same IMF who said PNM's response was good?

and what if S&P say it good? Oh, S&P does have PNM agents...

[bluesclues]

Pnm government sold our sovereignty with wasteful spending a lack of vision and diversification and keynesian remedies misused and mis-applied. So imbert gone cap in hand to the imf but look, moodys already give us the forecast, the same thing i said. Imf will find pnm's plans to revive the economy are insufficient and so will not lend them any money or categorize them as in a crisis. When the hard times really come because i can tell u imbert has no idea how to fix the problem of usd drain.... none. Imf will send UN troops to occupy our country as it descends into chaos and achieves crisis lending categorization. But help will come at a cost. The cost of international players laughing at the dotish indotrini and indo blackboys who run their country into the ground, failed their ppl and sold them into slavery.

the same IMF who said PNM's response was good?

and what if S&P say it good? Oh, S&P does have PNM agents...

Wait and see nah. Waiting to see how much money the imf goin to lend imbert. Might give a 2 mill lol

[eliteauto]

who said the Gov't is approaching the IMF for any money?

[Habit7]

lol, I remember when this happened under the PP govt, every PNM germ crawl out from their galavanize shack to talk ish :ROFL:

where are they now

Because the reasons for downgrade have the similarities of fall in oil and gas prices but some stark differences as well

The key drivers behind the downgrade are:

1. Persistent fiscal deficits and challenging prospects for fiscal reforms.
2. Decline in oil prices and limited economic diversification to weigh negatively on economic growth prospects.
3. Weak macroeconomic policy framework given lack of a medium-term fiscal strategy; and inadequate provision of vital macroeconomic data.

April 30, 2015 - https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys- ... -PR_322939

The UNC downgrade came at a time when they were paint a rosy economic picture of TT current status and they were hammering the PNM claiming they had no plan.

1. Despite the authorities' fiscal consolidation efforts, low oil and gas prices will negatively and materially undermine the country's economic and government financial strength at least throughout 2018.

2. There is a high likelihood that the policy response to the commodity price shock will not be as timely and effective as required due to lack of macroeconomic data and weak policy execution capacity.

April 15, 2016 - https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys- ... -PR_347143

PNM's plan will not help in the short term and would be hampered by the current inefficiency of state institutions.

[bluesclues]

I will accept NO scapegoat. U come and compete for power, talking about red and ready, but u had no contingency preparation for the likely event that oil price drop? So all your plans was based on a high oil price? Tells me u know nothing about markets, economies and u have no vision as a leader.

The reason for the downgrade is the same as for under Kamla. No its not the oil price.. it is the VISIONLESSNESS AND LACK OF ABILITY TO CRAFT SOLUTIONS. THE LACK OF ABILITY TO PREPARE FOR THE UNEXPECTED.

Never have the leaders of our country shown more lack, and undeservedness to hold leadership positions.

#ruledbyinferiors

[kurpal_v2]

This thread is above my reading level.

[death365]

This thread is above my reading level.

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also downgrading ****mostly*** affects external borrowing.

[dougla_boy]

If only Kamla did not tief out the money eah??

This started with the PNM before remember manning calder hart and the boys

but Manning and Hart not in jail......if them was so guilty, how come dem roaming about?