PPGPL IPO...

[DVSTT]

Well I bought in today.
Hope I don't hit my head.

[drchaos]

Lol welcome to the club!
So now you will go from laughing in the stands, to being a nervous wreck on the inside who hides this feelings with gross optimism on this forum.

[Country_Bookie]

Why ppl does be a nervous wreck when they invest in a stock?
Stocks should be considered a long term investment. If ur plan is to take ur life savings and invest in a few stocks to double ur money in a few months, odds are you'll end up losing a lot. Stocks are very volatile over the short term.

NGL is volatile now as the energy industry is at the bottom of a cycle & our nat gas production has declined. If ur mindset is just for short term, you'll panic and sell and make a loss. If u think long term, you'll realize that TT's nat gas production level should increase over time with new fields which will impact PPGPL's production, profits & ultimately share price.

[russian123]

Well I bought in today.
Hope I don't hit my head.

Previously one of the most negative person on this thread, glad to see some change.

[DVSTT]

Why ppl does be a nervous wreck when they invest in a stock?
Stocks should be considered a long term investment. If ur plan is to take ur life savings and invest in a few stocks to double ur money in a few months, odds are you'll end up losing a lot. Stocks are very volatile over the short term.

NGL is volatile now as the energy industry is at the bottom of a cycle & our nat gas production has declined. If ur mindset is just for short term, you'll panic and sell and make a loss. If u think long term, you'll realize that TT's nat gas production level should increase over time with new fields which will impact PPGPL's production, profits & ultimately share price.

The shares I bought gonna stay untouched for a while.
Need to look at one or 2 more companies to invest in for the long run though.
Wanted to buy a couple thousand GKC but they crossedn$5.00 a share. Plus the Jamaican government has changed so I'm waiting to see how that impacts the price.

[Redman]

BUY GHL.

With that disposition build a position.

Insurance is great business and they have little competition.

[drchaos]

Why ppl does be a nervous wreck when they invest in a stock?
Stocks should be considered a long term investment. If ur plan is to take ur life savings and invest in a few stocks to double ur money in a few months, odds are you'll end up losing a lot. Stocks are very volatile over the short term.

NGL is volatile now as the energy industry is at the bottom of a cycle & our nat gas production has declined. If ur mindset is just for short term, you'll panic and sell and make a loss. If u think long term, you'll realize that TT's nat gas production level should increase over time with new fields which will impact PPGPL's production, profits & ultimately share price.

If you want long term .. my opinion don't go stocks ... buy land! I bought NGL for medium term.

[DVSTT]

i don't have money for trinidadian land.

[neilsingh100]

i don't have money for trinidadian land.

Land and real estate are currently overvalued and the belief is that prices will always go up but market conditions (low mortgage rates, no property taxes, lack of alternative investments) in last couple of years caused this and you will see some correction or stagnation in prices in the next couple of years.

At least a good stock will pay you dividends while you wait.

[drchaos]

People will look at Lange Park, Valsayn and Palmiste and say weeeeeyyyy Land too expensive and I cah afford dat.

What you need to do is look at land in up and coming areas or if you good enough to have some foresight to see where will be developed in 10 to 20 years then you pay really low prices.

With the coming devaluation of the dollar, there will be a correction/upswing in prices over the next 5+ years even with land values. So Land will continue to trend upwards. Also when you look at inflation over the next 30 years nothing will hold its value like land.

[DVSTT]

BUY GHL.

With that disposition build a position.

Insurance is great business and they have little competition.

What caused guardian's value to drop from almost $20.00 per share to less than $14.00?
What other companies do you suggest looking at ?

[Redman]

Well I liked NFM when they changed management.
Still like it but this forex mess is a wild card on their plans.

locally thats it.

I would sell local market and look outside to the international markets.

Look at industries that will benefit from the debasement of all the major currencies over the last 5 years.

Why GHL fell?
If I had to guess
Clico contagion,difficult legacy issues since the rights issues at 40,plenty over hanging stock at lower prices in weaker hands...

take your pick.

but based on what you listed I would be less worried about why it fell than whats happening in the future.

The other players on the stock market all have a need to IMPORT something and then resell or manufacture.

Make no mistake the pressure on them.

GHL is a generator of forex without the need to purchase anything.
Insurance is a resilient market.

General insurance is a LEGAL REQUIREMENT, in TnT -

So GHL is a co that earns half its money overseas without the need to find forex etc to import....
and is in a business that has high barriers to entry including a CBTT thats unwilling add players.
In a low interest rate environment to boot.


If you are talking local and the country is in the position that it is I would prefer to:
Own a company that is geographically diverse.
A Large co that the pension funds will feel comfortable owning(who manages pension funds here?)
A company that has a price history that allows me to buy close to the multi year lows-not one just off its highs.

[snatman]

I went with insurance also, but chose SFC - its revenue stream is more widely distributed.

Local stocks taking a beating today, i expect a 10% correction before year end.. maybe more.

[DVSTT]

Thoughts on clico investment fund?

[Redman]

What's the underlying asset of the CIF?

[DVSTT]

What's the underlying asset of the CIF?

Not a clue, I've only downloaded the documents concerning it today and skimming through them at the moment.
I'm seeing that after Jan 2023 the fund is terminated and you get RBL shares.

[Redman]

Ok.So if the rate of.conversion to RBL is fixed...then you have a pivot point re value.
You know you getting g x shares of rbl.
If not and you converting at market in 2023 when what happens between now and then is the issue.

If you are buying a fixed income product with a fixed return...inflation is the risk...once the underlying is acceptable.

WhAt is your.opinion.on inflation. Over the next 7 years?

[pugboy]

CIF is not a bad deal, when you multiply how many it takes to equate to one RBL
it is a little better to buy CIF
you get the same dividends

[Redman]

What's the conversion per CIF share?
Is it fixed?

[pugboy]

4 cif shares will be converted to 1 rbl share when the fund matures in 2023
Presently buying 4 cif is much cheaper than 1 rbl yet you get almost the same dividend
Which is coming from the same place.
Assuming rbl is still in business and all things more or less equal
It could be assumed that come close to 2023 the cif share price will become equal or very close
To the correct value it should be i.e. 1/4 of rbl

[DVSTT]

Thanks for the clarification pugboy.

Redman, given the current economic conditions, the forex shortage and my novice economic skills, I'd say that inflation should be steadily increasing over the years.

[Trinislacker]

4 cif shares will be converted to 1 rbl share when the fund matures in 2023
Presently buying 4 cif is much cheaper than 1 rbl yet you get almost the same dividend
Which is coming from the same place.
Assuming rbl is still in business and all things more or less equal
It could be assumed that come close to 2023 the cif share price will become equal or very close
To the correct value it should be i.e. 1/4 of rbl

Dont forget that the assets of CIF also include about 600 million dollars in Government Bonds.

EDIT: are you sure its 4 and not roughly 5 to 1??

CIF has 204M units with 40M RBL shares and 600M in bonds. I could be reading this wrong.

[PariaMan]

40 Mil RBL Shares 4487,600,000.00
Govt Bonds 600,000,000.00
Total 5,087,600,000.00

CIF Shares 204,000,000.00
AVG Unit Value 24.94
Present Value 22.55

Of Course Interest on the GOVT bonds must be added in

[pugboy]

Not 100% sure if it's 4 or 5 but either way it's a cheaper option than buying rbl direct
Ask any stockbroker

[PariaMan]

Based on my calculation not seeing much benefit of CIF over Republic Shares.

[PariaMan]

CIF Rep
Dividend 2013 0.88 Total 4.25 20.71%
Dividend 2014 0.97 Total 4.25 22.82%
Dividend 2015 0.97 Total 4.35 22.30%
Dividend 2016 0.66 YTD


Still cannot see huge benefit of CIF over Republic

[pugboy]

How much was rbl dividends for same years
And rbl price ?

[PariaMan]

RBL dividend was 4.25 and 4.35 as in the chart.

The RBL share varied between 110 and 122 while the CIF varied between 21.05 and 23.49

Really not seeing the big advantage
To me the CIF was just an opportunity to invest in RBL without actually buying RBL shares. The investor will only benefit if there is a big increase in RBL. He would have the same benefit if he had invested in RBL shares

[Redman]

CIF Rep
Dividend 2013 0.88 Total 4.25 20.71%
Dividend 2014 0.97 Total 4.25 22.82%
Dividend 2015 0.97 Total 4.35 22.30%
Dividend 2016 0.66 YTD


Still cannot see huge benefit of CIF over Republic

The CIF looks like a convertible preferred share ...in drag...
...convertible to X number of RBL.
With a dividend from the GORTT bonds.

The benefit would be based on the discount to the conversion value...and where RBL goes....might actually outperform the underlying ...

[DVSTT]

NEL value has taken a serious dive. is it a good buy?