Diversification! Oil prices falling!

[nervewrecker]

The most recent infor. based on position taken by Saudi's seems to support position that this is a price war designed to drive inefficient producers out of the market.
...The Saudi's will not cut back production.
Price gains at end of last week have disappeared.
Prices still $55-$60 and winter started this week-end in USA.
The last time this kind of battle took place which was pre Chazev and the USA actually could have leaned on Venezuela as a strategic partner.

add in the fact that the break even cost of producing shale oil per barrel is dropping, making it competitive, ...good news for the US, bad for us.

then you have ISIS controlling a few oil fields and selling at low prices

The Saudis say they have enough cash reserves to withstand long term drop in oil prices (something like 20 years of reserves).. they are not influencing the price because of a possible backlash by the west.

things not looking good. not good at all...

Damn!

[orangefox]

^^ Yes Damn ... !

We speak the truth. But some can't handle the truth.

Can you handle the truth boy ?

[toyolink]

The most recent infor. based on position taken by Saudi's seems to support position that this is a price war designed to drive inefficient producers out of the market.
...The Saudi's will not cut back production.
Price gains at end of last week have disappeared.
Prices still $55-$60 and winter started this week-end in USA.
The last time this kind of battle took place which was pre Chazev and the USA actually could have leaned on Venezuela as a strategic partner.

add in the fact that the break even cost of producing shale oil per barrel is dropping, making it competitive, ...good news for the US, bad for us.

then you have ISIS controlling a few oil fields and selling at low prices

The Saudis say they have enough cash reserves to withstand long term drop in oil prices (something like 20 years of reserves).. they are not influencing the price because of a possible backlash by the west.

things not looking good. not good at all...

Damn!

When you factor in the expectations of investors in the productive efforts in the USA, I am not sure that whats happening is good news for that market.
Actually, history has shown that USA investors in the oil projects look to high returns and when this is not happening they quickly show their disgust.
I haven't looked a stock prices recently,but can quickly assume a downward movement.

[orangefox]

USA on the upswing after years in recession.

TT is in a downward economic path.

Just the business oil cycle.

[Skanky]

The naivety and ignorance in this thread are nothing short of astounding.

1.On the one hand there is the US,Europe,UK and their allies.On the other China,Russia,N.Korea,Cuba and their allies.Bells ringing yet?

2.The price of oil is not tied to some string that when news emerges it automatically draws the price up or down.It is not tied to supply or demand,shale,OPEC,Saudi or anything else.
When news emerges,or in general, people or programs have to press the buy or sell buttons and whichever side is stronger determines the price of oil.America has the largest traders in the world so it seems price is determined by market forces but it isn't.CNN,BBC,Bloomberg and other 'unbiased' news outlets are from the US,UK and their allies so they tell you what to believe as can be seen from the previous responses in this thread.
Just based on how the price of oil is affecting the world recently you really think the US being the superpower it is would allow itself to be at the mercy of some middle eastern?

3.The attack on the Ruble has been orchestrated by the US seeking to drive the Russian economy to its knees along with the other sanctions.China does not allow it's currency to be freely traded because they know the same could happen to them.China is instead seeking to help their ally by swapping Yuan for Ruble thus trying to stabilize the Russian economy slightly.

4.Cuba longtime allies of Russia and China have now had thawing relations with the US in the US attempting to isolate Russia further.Starting to piece together the puzzle yet?

5.Most likely N.Korea did not hack Sony as disclosed by the honourable and always accurate FBI or CIA.It probably was carried out by the US itself and now the US and N.Korea(possessor of Nuclear weaponry and Russian ally) could attempt to foster some relations by seeking to find the people who hacked Sony and blamed N.Korea.Attempts to isolate Russia again.This is the reason China and NKorea relations have become lukewarm as of recent.

6.Do you think it was coincidence the Chinese VP visit to Trinidad recently was followed by Biden's visit soon after?China is attempting to buy US allies/oil and gas producers from all over the world with gifts of donations such as Trinidad received recently.

Let's hope Trinidad chooses the correct ally and you people finally understand what is going on in the world today wrt oil prices.

[nervewrecker]

The naivety and ignorance in this thread are nothing short of astounding.

1.On the one hand there is the US,Europe,UK and their allies.On the other China,Russia,N.Korea,Cuba and their allies.Bells ringing yet?

2.The price of oil is not tied to some string that when news emerges it automatically draws the price up or down.It is not tied to supply or demand,shale,OPEC,Saudi or anything else.
When news emerges,or in general, people or programs have to press the buy or sell buttons and whichever side is stronger determines the price of oil.America has the largest traders in the world so it seems price is determined by market forces but it isn't.CNN,BBC,Bloomberg and other 'unbiased' news outlets are from the US,UK and their allies so they tell you what to believe as can be seen from the previous responses in this thread.
Just based on how the price of oil is affecting the world recently you really think the US being the superpower it is would allow itself to be at the mercy of some middle eastern?

3.The attack on the Ruble has been orchestrated by the US seeking to drive the Russian economy to its knees along with the other sanctions.China does not allow it's currency to be freely traded because they know the same could happen to them.China is instead seeking to help their ally by swapping Yuan for Ruble thus trying to stabilize the Russian economy slightly.

4.Cuba longtime allies of Russia and China have now had thawing relations with the US in the US attempting to isolate Russia further.Starting to piece together the puzzle yet?

5.Most likely N.Korea did not hack Sony as disclosed by the honourable and always accurate FBI or CIA.It probably was carried out by the US itself and now the US and N.Korea(possessor of Nuclear weaponry and Russian ally) could attempt to foster some relations by seeking to find the people who hacked Sony and blamed N.Korea.Attempts to isolate Russia again.This is the reason China and NKorea relations have become lukewarm as of recent.

6.Do you think it was coincidence the Chinese VP visit to Trinidad recently was followed by Biden's visit soon after?China is attempting to buy US allies/oil and gas producers from all over the world with gifts of donations such as Trinidad received recently.

Let's hope Trinidad chooses the correct ally and you people finally understand what is going on in the world today wrt oil prices.

Sounds more sensible.

[orangefox]

http://www.guardian.co.tt/business/2014-12-20/i-won’t-be-stampeded

Cliff Notes:

In presenting the 2015 budget, the Minister of Finance said he expected to earn $60.35 billion, while spending $66.4 billion. This means that in September, the Government envisaged that it would need to borrow at least $6 billion to fund the projected deficit for 2015.

The sharp decline in the price of oil since the 2015 budget was read on September 8, is likely to mean that the Government revenues for the first quarter of the 2015 fiscal year—October 1 to December 31 2014 will be less than predicted.

Howai disclosed that the average natural gas netback price—the price that the Government uses to base its revenue from LNG exports on—has come down to US$2.90 per unit, which is just US$0.15 below the netback price that had been used in the 2015 budget.

The combination of lower oil and natural gas prices is likely to mean a substantial drop in the Government’s tax revenues from energy, and consequently, as well, a reduction in theinflows of US dollars—which is the currency used to make payments of energy taxes—into the Central Bank and local commercial banks.

[orangefox]

There is absolutely no logic in Slanky's review:

1. Price is determined by market forces.
2. Cuba is/was a political move by the Obama Admin.
3. Other points makes no sense w.r.t falling oil prices.

TT will need to focus on exactly how to allocate its shrinking revenues next year
and how to raise additional taxes/revunes to meet shortfalls.

[zoom rader]

^^^ Slankys review is spot on.

[orangefox]

^^^ Slankys review is spot on.

Go into detail and explain or expand on his theory.

[computer]

http://www.trinidadexpress.com/business ... 26291.html

Gillette: Petrotrin can function with oil at US$40

By Joel Julien joel.julien@trinidadexpress.com
Story Created: Dec 22, 2014 at 9:21 PM ECT
Story Updated: Dec 22, 2014 at 9:21 PM ECT
THIS country’s State-owned oil company, Petrotrin, can function with oil prices as low as US$40 a barrel, and therefore there is no need to “panic” at the moment, chairman Lindsay Gillette has said.

We must however be “concerned” by the falling oil prices, Gillette said.

Gillette made the statement yesterday following the East Brighton Block licence signing ceremony held at the Ministry of Energy and Energy Affairs’, Tower C of the International Waterfront Centre in Port of Spain.

The 2014/2015 budget was calculated using an expected oil price of US$80 a barrel based on the prices for crude oil at the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark.

As of yesterday, the oil price was US$55.68.

“We have to be concerned about it (the falling oil price) but the more oil we get the better it is for our refinery,” Gillette said yesterday.

Gillette said while the situation is a cause for concern but there is no reason for any panic.

“I don’t think we need to panic because Petrotrin is functional at oil even at (US)$40 in terms of cash flow positive but it does concern me from the point of view of taxes to the government but then again our refinery with crude equity it really reduces the price of our refining and increases our refining margin so what we have to do is drill for more and more oil,” Gillette said.

“Anything that drops is a cause for concern, anything, but we just have to buckle the hatches and really move forward,” he said. Energy Minister Kevin Ramnarine said multinational companies such as BP, are not “easily rattled” and it is expected 2015 will be a “fantastic year” for capital expenditure.

[orangefox]

^^ Gillette is a politician. He has always had his agenda.

The benchmark S&P GSCI commodities index declined by 24% year to date. Some of the most popular commodities have tumbled. WTI crude oil, the U.S. benchmark for oil, dropped more than 33% so far this year. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, has slid even further — 37% on the year. Joining oil, precious metals such as gold and silver, also declined so far this year.

[Redman]

What you are missing is that Petrotrin purchases oil to refine....meaning that their cost has come down..

The equity crude that is produced locally is purchased at discounts to WTI-up to 55%

The info is correct

[zoom rader]

^^^ Slankys review is spot on.

Go into detail and explain or expand on his theory.

No need to, he explained it.

[orangefox]

^^ Even if we have more oil to refine, the demand will be dismissed. We do not have the scale of production and Petrotrin cannot be depended on when supply exceeds demand to be innovative . TT is heading for some challenging times and politicians are just giving us the shaft. So go figure.

[zoom rader]

What you are missing is that Petrotrin purchases oil to refine....meaning that their cost has come down..

The equity crude that is produced locally is purchased at discounts to WTI-up to 55%

The info is correct

Orangefox does not understand that trini is not an oil based economy.
He may not know that trini was hit with lowered oil prices in the mid 80s & early 90s not forgetting the last global recession. Trini adapted to all and over came.

[orangefox]

^^^ Slankys review is spot on.

Go into detail and explain or expand on his theory.

No need to, he explained it.

Show us some academia or intellectual capacity and expand on his views.
Tell us exactly where you agree and why. Do an analysis .

[orangefox]

What you are missing is that Petrotrin purchases oil to refine....meaning that their cost has come down..

The equity crude that is produced locally is purchased at discounts to WTI-up to 55%

The info is correct

Orangefox does not understand that trini is not an oil based economy.
He may not know that trini was hit with lowered oil prices in the mid 80s & early 90s not forgetting the last global recession. Trini adapted to all and over came.

Again explain how we "over came" . You are just making statements with no sense or logic or stats.
Papi times have changes since 80's and 90's.

[zoom rader]

^^^ Slankys review is spot on.

Go into detail and explain or expand on his theory.

No need to, he explained it.

Show us some academia or intellectual capacity and expand on his views.
Tell us exactly where you agree and why. Do an analysis .

Go back and read this chead, it's all in there.

[orangefox]

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30571382

Skanky's view is not supported by any reliable source and amounts to a conspiracy theory.
OPEC leaders and World leaders give a different view. A realistic view.

Cliff Notes:


In the past, Saudi Arabia, the world's largest producer, has acted to rein in output to support prices.

The decision not to intervene this time prompted conspiracy theories, including that Opec wanted to undermine the US shale boom and that there was a political plot to reduce oil revenues earned by Russia and Iran.

Mr Naimi denied that politics played a role in the kingdom's oil policy. He said he was not happy about the falling oil price, but added: "Current prices do not encourage investment in any form of energy, but they stimulate global economic growth, leading ultimately to an increase in global demand and a slowdown in the growth of supplies."

[toyolink]

The USA will destroy its new initiatives to become more energy self sufficient and start warming up to Cuba to destroy Putin and Russia?
This is like burning down your own home to affect the value and quality of life of your next door neighbor who you never really liked.
The big boys in this game folks are the players in OPEC who have real capacity.
T&T in this game have to be smart enough to read the supply demand dynamics and quickly adjust as compared to getting caught up in all kinds of irrelevant stupidity and end up in a hell hole of financial trouble.

[Allergic2BunnyEars]

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30571382

Skanky's view is not supported by any reliable source and amounts to a conspiracy theory.
OPEC leaders and World leaders give a different view. A realistic view.

Cliff Notes:


In the past, Saudi Arabia, the world's largest producer, has acted to rein in output to support prices.

The decision not to intervene this time prompted conspiracy theories, including that Opec wanted to undermine the US shale boom and that there was a political plot to reduce oil revenues earned by Russia and Iran.

Mr Naimi denied that politics played a role in the kingdom's oil policy. He said he was not happy about the falling oil price, but added: "Current prices do not encourage investment in any form of energy, but they stimulate global economic growth, leading ultimately to an increase in global demand and a slowdown in the growth of supplies."

So when gillette says something you say he has an agenda but Mr. Naimi says something and you swallow it whole?

"^^ Even if we have more oil to refine, the demand will be dismissed. We do not have the scale of production and Petrotrin cannot be depended on when supply exceeds demand to be innovative . TT is heading for some challenging times and politicians are just giving us the shaft. So go figure.
"

The point isn't just about having more oil to refine. It's the price point at which it is obtained. Petrotrin doesn't import all of its oil. Some of it is local crude which it obtains at a heavy discount regardless of the price of oil. The more local crude the refinery processes the better. It's why the company has been going in the direction of ramping up production and also why Gillette can come out with a statement like that. it's the benefit of being an integrated oil company with upstream and downstream options as opposed to say a purely upstream oil company. That's why some posters have repeatedly told you that lower oil prices to a point doesn't automatically mean doom and gloom for the company.

T&T is impacted more by the price of nat gas than oil though and you have yet to mention anything nat gas related which makes some posters question your line of logic or lack thereof.

[Redman]

Even if we have more oil to refine, the demand will be dismissed.

Demand for what?

The output from the refinery is used locally/sold Internationally
about 70% of the output of transportation fuels is consumed locally. which has increased by 16% for in 2014(Jan-October)

Since 2008 to now we have added 200k vehicles (based on the License plates)

How do we dismiss demand?...

The reality is that the GORTT
Loses Taxes

Gains
on the subsidy
on Lower import cost
Lower cost of Equity and local produced crude.

in the normal world lower prices does not 'dismiss demand'

[orangefox]

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30571382

Skanky's view is not supported by any reliable source and amounts to a conspiracy theory.
OPEC leaders and World leaders give a different view. A realistic view.

Cliff Notes:


In the past, Saudi Arabia, the world's largest producer, has acted to rein in output to support prices.

The decision not to intervene this time prompted conspiracy theories, including that Opec wanted to undermine the US shale boom and that there was a political plot to reduce oil revenues earned by Russia and Iran.

Mr Naimi denied that politics played a role in the kingdom's oil policy. He said he was not happy about the falling oil price, but added: "Current prices do not encourage investment in any form of energy, but they stimulate global economic growth, leading ultimately to an increase in global demand and a slowdown in the growth of supplies."

So when gillette says something you say he has an agenda but Mr. Naimi says something and you swallow it whole?

"^^ Even if we have more oil to refine, the demand will be dismissed. We do not have the scale of production and Petrotrin cannot be depended on when supply exceeds demand to be innovative . TT is heading for some challenging times and politicians are just giving us the shaft. So go figure.
"

The point isn't just about having more oil to refine. It's the price point at which it is obtained. Petrotrin doesn't import all of its oil. Some of it is local crude which it obtains at a heavy discount regardless of the price of oil. The more local crude the refinery processes the better. It's why the company has been going in the direction of ramping up production and also why Gillette can come out with a statement like that. it's the benefit of being an integrated oil company with upstream and downstream options as opposed to say a purely upstream oil company. That's why some posters have repeatedly told you that lower oil prices to a point doesn't automatically mean doom and gloom for the company.

T&T is impacted more by the price of nat gas than oil though and you have yet to mention anything nat gas related which makes some posters question your line of logic or lack thereof.

Gillette is a politician .
Ok Bunny boy, listen to him. Be guided by his mantra
Go spend all your money and buy a Meridan boat.

Merry Christmas !

[Allergic2BunnyEars]

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30571382

Skanky's view is not supported by any reliable source and amounts to a conspiracy theory.
OPEC leaders and World leaders give a different view. A realistic view.

Cliff Notes:


In the past, Saudi Arabia, the world's largest producer, has acted to rein in output to support prices.

The decision not to intervene this time prompted conspiracy theories, including that Opec wanted to undermine the US shale boom and that there was a political plot to reduce oil revenues earned by Russia and Iran.

Mr Naimi denied that politics played a role in the kingdom's oil policy. He said he was not happy about the falling oil price, but added: "Current prices do not encourage investment in any form of energy, but they stimulate global economic growth, leading ultimately to an increase in global demand and a slowdown in the growth of supplies."

So when gillette says something you say he has an agenda but Mr. Naimi says something and you swallow it whole?

"^^ Even if we have more oil to refine, the demand will be dismissed. We do not have the scale of production and Petrotrin cannot be depended on when supply exceeds demand to be innovative . TT is heading for some challenging times and politicians are just giving us the shaft. So go figure.
"

The point isn't just about having more oil to refine. It's the price point at which it is obtained. Petrotrin doesn't import all of its oil. Some of it is local crude which it obtains at a heavy discount regardless of the price of oil. The more local crude the refinery processes the better. It's why the company has been going in the direction of ramping up production and also why Gillette can come out with a statement like that. it's the benefit of being an integrated oil company with upstream and downstream options as opposed to say a purely upstream oil company. That's why some posters have repeatedly told you that lower oil prices to a point doesn't automatically mean doom and gloom for the company.

T&T is impacted more by the price of nat gas than oil though and you have yet to mention anything nat gas related which makes some posters question your line of logic or lack thereof.

Gillette is a politician .
Ok Bunny boy, listen to him. Be guided by his mantra
Go spend all your money and buy a Meridan boat.

Merry Christmas !

Ok and you are a guyanese but we still give you an ear. What a mistake.

It's pretty clear you have nothing informative to say. Dark days ahead when I agree with ZR. It's clear you know not what you speak of if your only focus is on one minute portion of the post and are unable to think to respond to the rest.

[orangefox]

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30571382

Skanky's view is not supported by any reliable source and amounts to a conspiracy theory.
OPEC leaders and World leaders give a different view. A realistic view.

Cliff Notes:


In the past, Saudi Arabia, the world's largest producer, has acted to rein in output to support prices.

The decision not to intervene this time prompted conspiracy theories, including that Opec wanted to undermine the US shale boom and that there was a political plot to reduce oil revenues earned by Russia and Iran.

Mr Naimi denied that politics played a role in the kingdom's oil policy. He said he was not happy about the falling oil price, but added: "Current prices do not encourage investment in any form of energy, but they stimulate global economic growth, leading ultimately to an increase in global demand and a slowdown in the growth of supplies."

So when gillette says something you say he has an agenda but Mr. Naimi says something and you swallow it whole?

"^^ Even if we have more oil to refine, the demand will be dismissed. We do not have the scale of production and Petrotrin cannot be depended on when supply exceeds demand to be innovative . TT is heading for some challenging times and politicians are just giving us the shaft. So go figure.
"

The point isn't just about having more oil to refine. It's the price point at which it is obtained. Petrotrin doesn't import all of its oil. Some of it is local crude which it obtains at a heavy discount regardless of the price of oil. The more local crude the refinery processes the better. It's why the company has been going in the direction of ramping up production and also why Gillette can come out with a statement like that. it's the benefit of being an integrated oil company with upstream and downstream options as opposed to say a purely upstream oil company. That's why some posters have repeatedly told you that lower oil prices to a point doesn't automatically mean doom and gloom for the company.

T&T is impacted more by the price of nat gas than oil though and you have yet to mention anything nat gas related which makes some posters question your line of logic or lack thereof.

Gillette is a politician .
Ok Bunny boy, listen to him. Be guided by his mantra
Go spend all your money and buy a Meridan boat.

Merry Christmas !

Ok and you are a guyanese but we still give you an ear. What a mistake.

It's pretty clear you have nothing informative to say. Dark days ahead when I agree with ZR. It's clear you know not what you speak of if your only focus is on one minute portion of the post and are unable to think to respond to the rest.

Ok, kool

[orangefox]

Dow over 18,000 !!
Finance and Economics upswing back in the USA.
Again due to falling oil prices

[orangefox]

Even if we have more oil to refine, the demand will be dismissed.

Demand for what?

The output from the refinery is used locally/sold Internationally
about 70% of the output of transportation fuels is consumed locally. which has increased by 16% for in 2014(Jan-October)

Since 2008 to now we have added 200k vehicles (based on the License plates)

How do we dismiss demand?...

The reality is that the GORTT
Loses Taxes

Gains
on the subsidy
on Lower import cost
Lower cost of Equity and local produced crude.

in the normal world lower prices does not 'dismiss demand'

Why do we increase production NOW in a commodity that has
been devalued ? Subsidy is not a revenue earner !

Remove the subsidy and sell the commodity on the international markets ?

Not going to happen in an election year. But AFTER people have to watch out.

"Loses Taxes" ? Not really. Lower yes. Hence cutback in spending by GORTT.

Read Gillette comments very closely. It is pure politics.

There is an answer

Dizzy8 may have the answer

[Redman]

Even if we have more oil to refine, the demand will be dismissed.

Demand for what?

The output from the refinery is used locally/sold Internationally
about 70% of the output of transportation fuels is consumed locally. which has increased by 16% for in 2014(Jan-October)

Since 2008 to now we have added 200k vehicles (based on the License plates)

How do we dismiss demand?...

The reality is that the GORTT
Loses Taxes

Gains
on the subsidy
on Lower import cost
Lower cost of Equity and local produced crude.

in the normal world lower prices does not 'dismiss demand'

Why do we increase production NOW in a commodity that has
been devalued ? Subsidy is not a revenue earner !

Remove the subsidy and sell the commodity on the international markets ?

Not going to happen in an election year. But AFTER people have to watch out.

"Loses Taxes" ? Not really. Lower yes. Hence cutback in spending by GORTT.

Read Gillette comments very closely. It is pure politics.

There is an answer

Dizzy8 may have the answer

Maybe you should get some information on how the oil business in TnT works before you pronounce on its future.

Based on your questions above, you don't understand .

[Allergic2BunnyEars]

The vice-president of Russia's state-owned oil behemoth Rosneft has accused Saudi Arabia of manipulating the oil price for political reasons. Mikhail Leontyev was quoted in Russian media as saying:

Prices can be manipulative. First of all, Saudi Arabia has begun making big discounts on oil. This is political manipulation, and Saudi Arabia is being manipulated, which could end badly.

The news comes as Reuters reports Saudi officials have been privately admitting to oil market participants that they are comfortable with lower oil prices. According to the news service, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is willing to accept prices as low as $80 a barrel for as much as the next two years.

Falling prices are of particular concern to Russia. Russia needs high oil prices to buoy its economy. The country has seen its economic performance slow under the weight of sanctions over Ukraine and weakening domestic demand. The Russian Central Bank forecasts growth over 2014 to be a meager 0.4%, improving marginally to between 0.9%-1.1% in 2015.

The problem is that Russia's latest budget requires oil prices to average at least $100 a barrel in order to cover the government's spending promises. The government already needs to borrow around $7 billion from foreign investors next year and as much as 1.1 trillion rubles ($27.2 billion) from domestic investors. Given the country's sanctions-imposed isolation from international bond markets, any additional borrowing would be a big concern for policymakers in Moscow.

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has already acknowledged that the budget forecasts for both Russian GDP growth and oil prices are "optimistic." During the Reuters Russia Investment Summit in September he was quoted as saying:

There are risks to economic growth rates. It is a rather optimistic forecast; there are risks to the oil price. Without a doubt, this and the next year we will have to try very hard to ensure the planned growth rates.

If the forecast growth fails to materialize and the oil price continues its slide it could force the Russian government into an embarrassing retreat on spending commitments and increase the country's economic woes.

http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-s ... z3G44fWEHS