*** The 2025 GENERAL ELECTION thread***

[Gladiator]

I want to know what the plan is with all that money to rent government buildings in town with a building being rented for 600k monthly. Here is the kicker, all that money does be paid on time yet the government does say in the same breath the money just isn't there to pay public servants or contractors .Ppl not demanding that government stop wasting public funds on rentals for such exorbitant amounts of money.

Where is the like button?

Fun fact the government spending 40 million dollars on RENT....dead money that only fattening financiers and at no point is payment late. With 40 million a month why is the government not building properties instead of renting to arse wari family?

Whomever touches that will surely meet an early demise. It is probably the single most lucrative racket that has kept the 1% at the top since the dawn of time in Trinidad.

[Gladiator]

Yeah

Kamla in serious trouble this election. Ppl not rushing to vote for her. They honestly don't seem bothered.the feeling is PNM more stable than Kamla so ppl not seeing Kamla as a replacement. Her image seems to have been broken beyond repair at this point.

Actually the opposite is being reported from those on the ground. If you did walk the Maloney Arouca constituency, you would know that it is a sure PNM seat. Chances are that the same amount of people will vote for the UNC as per history but less for the PNM due to their abstinence cause they vex with the PNM.

The entire Rowley hand over to Stuart Young proves that the PNM stability claim is only a myth. I suspect that if he wins his first move will be to oust all his detractors and replace them with loyalists.

[paid_influencer]

These pnm ministers real going on urban radio morning shows. The young boy hosts who barely have 5 cxc passes does be getting on like they talking to prime Elon about tesla, space x and open ai

[Redress10]

Yeah

Kamla in serious trouble this election. Ppl not rushing to vote for her. They honestly don't seem bothered.the feeling is PNM more stable than Kamla so ppl not seeing Kamla as a replacement. Her image seems to have been broken beyond repair at this point.

Actually the opposite is being reported from those on the ground. If you did walk the Maloney Arouca constituency, you would know that it is a sure PNM seat. Chances are that the same amount of people will vote for the UNC as per history but less for the PNM due to their abstinence cause they vex with the PNM.

The entire Rowley hand over to Stuart Young proves that the PNM stability claim is only a myth. I suspect that if he wins his first move will be to oust all his detractors and replace them with loyalists.

We went in UNC strongholds, polling divisions etc. I don't know if ppl have campaign fatigue but the energy different on these walkabouts. I think the population isn't energised like in the past.

[paid_influencer]

^ i think ppl already decide who they going to vote for

most just waiting at home for the day to stain their finger

also is a holiday long weekend. plenty ppl drunk or sleeping until like next week thursday

[The_Honourable]

I want to know what the plan is with all that money to rent government buildings in town with a building being rented for 600k monthly. Here is the kicker, all that money does be paid on time yet the government does say in the same breath the money just isn't there to pay public servants or contractors .Ppl not demanding that government stop wasting public funds on rentals for such exorbitant amounts of money.

Where is the like button?

Fun fact the government spending 40 million dollars on RENT....dead money that only fattening financiers and at no point is payment late. With 40 million a month why is the government not building properties instead of renting to arse wari family?

PNM built a complex to house BIR, VAT, registrars office etc in Sando. Kamla converted 2 floors to hospital bed space with elevators etc not equipped to deal with gurneys so that the landlords in Sando could continue to get paid. One of the upper floors was also made a UNC liming spot.
Whether you PNM or UNC that was nonsense

Mostly false.

Yes the admin complex was for government offices. The idea of turning it into a hospital was a good idea. The general hospital was running out of bed space and could not cater to the ever-growing San Fernando and environs population. By converting the administration building into a hospital immediately opened thousands of square footage in hospital space both horizontally and vertically. 17 floors of that building are being used for both hospital bed space and administration, and this was so before Kamla lost in 2015.

The true part is that one floor at the top was a liming spot.

I know this because I worked there for some years. Up to the time I left, that building was still under udecott.

PNM did have 9+ years to find another place to build an administrative complex for government offices in san fernando. There are clico/cl financial buildings in the city that can be used as government offices... i mean... hell... udecott reclaimed land on the waterfront and already advertising expressions of interest for commercial activity. Maybe use one of those reclaimed lots for a government complex?

[Supra GT-FOUR]

Yeah

Kamla in serious trouble this election. Ppl not rushing to vote for her. They honestly don't seem bothered.the feeling is PNM more stable than Kamla so ppl not seeing Kamla as a replacement. Her image seems to have been broken beyond repair at this point.

Actually the opposite is being reported from those on the ground. If you did walk the Maloney Arouca constituency, you would know that it is a sure PNM seat. Chances are that the same amount of people will vote for the UNC as per history but less for the PNM due to their abstinence cause they vex with the PNM.

The entire Rowley hand over to Stuart Young proves that the PNM stability claim is only a myth. I suspect that if he wins his first move will be to oust all his detractors and replace them with loyalists.

We went in UNC strongholds, polling divisions etc. I don't know if ppl have campaign fatigue but the energy different on these walkabouts. I think the population isn't energised like in the past.

https://g.co/kgs/G4izGrY

Nice subtle attempt at propaganda Red dress.
Keep saying it and eventually you may convince others.
You post quite a lot of opinions as though they were facts.

propaganda

noun
1.
information, especially of a biased or misleading nature, used to promote a political cause or point of view.
"he was charged with distributing enemy propaganda"

[paid_influencer]

We went in UNC strongholds, polling divisions etc. I don't know if ppl have campaign fatigue but the energy different on these walkabouts. I think the population isn't energised like in the past.

did you know tomorrow is 4/20

my coworker knew

[j.o.e]

I want to know what the plan is with all that money to rent government buildings in town with a building being rented for 600k monthly. Here is the kicker, all that money does be paid on time yet the government does say in the same breath the money just isn't there to pay public servants or contractors .Ppl not demanding that government stop wasting public funds on rentals for such exorbitant amounts of money.

Where is the like button?

Fun fact the government spending 40 million dollars on RENT....dead money that only fattening financiers and at no point is payment late. With 40 million a month why is the government not building properties instead of renting to arse wari family?

PNM built a complex to house BIR, VAT, registrars office etc in Sando. Kamla converted 2 floors to hospital bed space with elevators etc not equipped to deal with gurneys so that the landlords in Sando could continue to get paid. One of the upper floors was also made a UNC liming spot.
Whether you PNM or UNC that was nonsense

Mostly false.

Yes the admin complex was for government offices. The idea of turning it into a hospital was a good idea. The general hospital was running out of bed space and could not cater to the ever-growing San Fernando and environs population. By converting the administration building into a hospital immediately opened thousands of square footage in hospital space both horizontally and vertically. 17 floors of that building are being used for both hospital bed space and administration, and this was so before Kamla lost in 2015.

The true part is that one floor at the top was a liming spot.

I know this because I worked there for some years. Up to the time I left, that building was still under udecott.

PNM did have 9+ years to find another place to build an administrative complex for government offices in san fernando. There are clico/cl financial buildings in the city that can be used as government offices... i mean... hell... udecott reclaimed land on the waterfront and already advertising expressions of interest for commercial activity. Maybe use one of those reclaimed lots for a government complex?

I will defer to you because my only experience with the compound is dropping my mother to clinic and a visit to the liming area years ago. I still think that a more sensible way of expanding the hospital could’ve been arranged.
The clico building is small and not well serviced by public transport in my opinion

[bluefete]

Confession is good for the soul. I not able with all these PNM AI lies being told via videos - Not so Redress10?

It would have been better if he had stayed quiet. This man took over from Imbert and talking on an election platform.

[bluefete]

[hover11]

Confession is good for the soul. I not able with all these PNM AI lies being told via videos - Not so Redress10?

It would have been better if he had stayed quiet. This man took over from Imbert and talking on an election platform.

Can't campaign on performance so then this....

[The_Honourable]

Down to the wire: PNM leading in Tobago; UNC ahead in key Trinidad marginals

The April 28 General Election is still too close to call and is going down to the wire.

However, based on the just-released results of a Guardian Media-commissioned public opinion poll, the main opposition, the United National Congress (UNC), currently has the statistical edge over the incumbent People’s National Movement (PNM) in key marginal seats in Trinidad, while the PNM is leading in Tobago.

In the last election on August 10, 2020, the two Tobago seats were won by the PNM, while the UNC captured six of the swing seats and the PNM five.

Since then, however, the political dynamics in the country have changed and are today being reflected in the results of the independent survey conducted by respected pollster and political scientist Professor Hamid Ghany between April 10 and April 13 in the 11 marginal constituencies, namely Barataria/San Juan, Chaguanas East, Cumuto/Manzanilla, La Horquetta/Talparo, Mayaro, Moruga/Tableland, Pointe-a-Pierre (now called Claxton Bay), San Fernando West, St Joseph, Toco/Sangre Grande, and Tunapuna.

Views were also canvassed in Tobago on political support and national issues using the same questionnaire methodology over the same four-day period.

Pollster Ghany stopped short of issuing any declarations on the final seat count, but said the survey revealed a general level of dissatisfaction (61 per cent) among the 1,650 Trinidad respondents, drawn from various ethnic backgrounds, with the PNM’s performance over the past ten years in office, as well as uncertainty over its current leadership following the recent prime ministerial transition from Dr Keith Rowley to Stuart Young.

When asked who they find to be more believable, the majority of respondents in Trinidad (47 per cent) chose the UNC’s Kamla Persad-Bissessar, who is leading a Coalition of Interests into the election, over Young, who polled 31 per cent support.

The same respondents also said they found Persad-Bissessar (48 per cent) is better for the economy than Young (32 per cent), with Gary Griffith, of the National Transformation Alliance (NTA), and Mickela Panday, of the Patriotic Front (PF), each garnering two per cent support on handling the economy.

This compares to 47 per cent favourability for Young in Tobago, where he is seen as more believable than THA Chief Secretary Farley Augustine (36 per cent support) and Progressive Democratic Patriots (PDP) leader Watson Duke (1 per cent), based on the survey conducted there among 530 respondents.

Tobagonians surveyed also said they were generally satisfied with the PNM’s performance (61 per cent), and when asked who they were going to vote for in the General Election, 47 per cent indicated the PNM, compared to 32 per cent for Augustine’s Tobago People’s Party (TPP), 9 per cent for Duke’s PDP, and 4 per cent for other parties and candidates.

Of the remaining respondents, 4 per cent said they wished to keep their vote private, 3 per cent were unsure, and 1 per cent said none.

In Trinidad, when asked if the General Election were held tomorrow, which party they would vote for, 45 per cent of swing-seat respondents said the UNC coalition and 30 per cent, the PNM.

With the election now a mere week away and a total of 17 political parties in the race for control of the 41 seats in the Red House, it is expected that the outcome will be significantly impacted by vote splitting.

“(In Trinidad) the split-vote phenomenon is alive and well, as the combined effect of the support for the Patriotic Front (7 per cent) and the National Transformation Alliance (6 per cent) has a 13 per cent voter deviation looming over the heads of both the UNC and the PNM,” pollster Ghany said.

“As regards which of the two major parties they are hurting more, it is difficult to tell. If it is the UNC coalition, then that would mean that they would have to make further inroads into the UNC coalition to hurt their chances.

“If, however, they are hurting the PNM as part of an anti-UNC vote, then the UNC will be the prime beneficiary of such a vote split.

“How the actual vote splitting will play out in any of these marginal constituencies cannot be predicted, but any close finishes could be the result of vote splitting one way or another.”

However, in Tobago, where vote splitting is also at play, Ghany feels it will redound to the PNM’s benefit at the end of the day, given the tightness of the race.

The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.5 per cent for Trinidad, where five of the marginals surveyed–Cumuto/Manzanilla, La Horquetta/Talparo, Pointe-a-Pierre, San Fernando West, and Toco/Sangre Grande–were recently impacted by boundary changes made by the Election and Boundaries Commission.

In Tobago, the margin of error is +/- 4.0 per cent based on recent shifts in political allegiances.

https://guardian.co.tt/news/down-to-the ... 87cd3ebe84

[The_Honourable]

Straight PNM, UNC fight in Trinidad

POLLSTER AND PROFESSOR HAMID GHANY

The poll was conducted from Thursday, April 10, to Sunday, April 13, 2025. A total of 1,650 questionnaires were administered in Trinidad over 11 constituencies that were selected based on a marginality formula that I invented in 2002. The margin of error for the Trinidad poll is +/- 2.5 per cent.

A total of 530 questionnaires were administered in Tobago—265 questionnaires in Tobago East and 265 questionnaires in Tobago West. The margin of error for the Tobago poll is +/- 4.0 per cent.

Calculation of marginality in Trinidad

In conducting the national survey, it was decided to use the parliamentary electoral constituencies as a natural geographical basis for gathering the data. To this end, the official results of the general elections of August 10, 2020, provided the basis for the choice of constituencies together with the boundary and constituency changes contained in the Report of the Elections and Boundaries Commission dated March 13, 2024, together with my marginality formula.

A calculation of marginality (M) was made to confirm what were the projected marginal constituencies for the 2025 general election. The symbols for this formula are M for marginality, and D for the midpoint spread of the deposit level for the largest (L) and smallest (S) constituencies if everyone were to vote.

This formula applies to electoral systems that use the first-past-the-post method where the retention of the deposit of every candidate is calculated at one-eighth of the total votes cast in a constituency. The deposit is a fundamental statistical benchmark and can serve as a guide to determine where a survey should be conducted if marginality is the key element in the search for truly mixed political opinions because in marginal constituencies the first and second candidates will normally save their deposits because marginality always tends to move closer to zero as the difference between the first and second candidates.

The constituencies with the largest electorate (L) and the smallest electorate (S) must be divided by 8, and then their difference divided by 2, in order to calculate D. Therefore, the formula is: (L/8 – S/8) / 2 = D

Once D is determined, then the statistical formula for calculating the outer limit of marginality (M) is: {(L/8) – D = (S/8) + D} = M

As a consequence, the following constituencies in Trinidad can be considered marginal in relation to the 2025 general election, owing to the fact that their projected marginality (calculated difference measured between the first and the second candidates based on 2020 electoral data and 2024 boundary changes) fell inside of > 3,504:

1. Aranguez/St Joseph (823)

2. Barataria / San Juan (1,060)

3. Moruga/Tableland (1,072)

4. Chaguanas East (1,086)

5. San Fernando West (1,618)

6. Claxton Bay (1,813)

7. Tunapuna (1,927)

8. La Horquetta/Talparo (1,939)

9. Toco/Sangre Grande (2,976)

10. Cumuto/Manzanilla (3,326)

11. Mayaro (3,364)

These constituencies were polled by using three PDs per constituency on the basis of choosing one very strong PNM PD from 2020, one very strong UNC PD from 2020 and one marginal PD from 2020 at 50 questionnaires per PD.

ANALYSIS

Political party support

The performance of the PNM Government over the last ten years, which is essentially connected to the legacy of the former Prime Minister, Dr Keith Rowley, has placed the new Prime Minister, Stuart Young, at a disadvantage, as he has to either acknowledge that he was part of this performance or he is going to distance himself from it.

The Leader of the Opposition, Kamla Persad-Bissessar, has rebranded herself as the leader of a new coalition of interests which has broadened the base of the UNC by bringing personalities who were previously opposed to her into her fold just as they have changed their disposition towards her.

The opinion poll respondents have taken a somewhat positive view (45 per cent) of the UNC coalition of interests, while the PNM has not been as favourably viewed by respondents in the poll (30 per cent).

The split-vote phenomenon is alive and well, as the combined effect of the support for the Patriotic Front (7 per cent) and the National Transformation Alliance (6 per cent) has a 13 per cent voter deviation looming over the heads of both the UNC and the PNM.

As regards which of the two major parties they are hurting more, it is difficult to tell. If it is the UNC Coalition, then that would mean that they would have to make further inroads into the UNC Coalition to hurt their chances. If, however, they are hurting the PNM as part of an anti-UNC vote, then the UNC will be the prime beneficiary of such a vote split.

This outcome was gathered from 11 marginal constituencies, and a 13 per cent vote split will be significant under the first-past-the-post system of election. If the PF and the NTA are cutting into UNC coalition votes, then more cutting will be required to reduce the chances of the UNC coalition. If the PF and the NTA are cutting into PNM votes, then that does not augur well for the PNM.

How the actual vote splitting will play out in any of these marginal constituencies cannot be predicted, but any close finishes could be the result of vote splitting one way or another.

This poll was taken two weeks before the General Election and so the snapshot may change if there are any switches among third party votes as a result of the final two weeks of campaigning.

Believability/Good for the Economy Questions

The Believability/Good for the Economy questions showed that the Leader of the Opposition enjoyed a lead over the new Prime Minister that was consistent with the choice of party in the final question of the survey. The separation of these questions between the start of the poll and the end of the poll was designed to see whether there would be a modicum of consistency between these first responses and the last response.

Essentially, there is a correlation between them. However, in a first-past-the-post system, one does not know how the final results will play out in individual marginal constituencies.

The responses to these questions may be indicative of respondents seeking a change now that Dr Rowley is gone, and they may not be responding as positively to Prime Minister Young as his replacement.

On the flip side, the Leader of the Opposition, Kamla Persad-Bissessar, has formed new alliances which may have been viewed positively by the respondents as a new image that they may be willing to try.

TOBAGO

The two Tobago constituencies were polled using five PDs in each constituency based on trending results using 2020 general election data and tracking those PDs through the January 2021 and December 2021 Tobago House of Assembly (THA) results.

The tracking of these results for the initial PDs from 2020 through the two THA elections of 2021 was deemed to be necessary seeing that (i) the PNM lost ground, (ii) the PDP gained ground, and (iii) the TPP was subsequently formed out of the PDP. Geographical spread was also a factor in selecting PDs.

The methodology had to contend with the effect of the decline of the PNM in three elections (2020 General Election, January 2021 THA elections and December 2021 THA elections) and whether they would regain any lost support because of the split between the PDP and the TPP. At the same time, there was the need to measure whether the PDP would hold its 2021 vote levels or whether the TPP had inherited the votes of the PDP after the split between them in 2022/2023.

ANALYSIS

Political Party Support

The likelihood of split voting is very apparent in Tobago given the percentage differences between the three main parties in the contest on the island. The PNM is leading with 47 per cent; however, the TPP, which was formed out of the PDP, is at 32 per cent and the PDP is at 9 per cent. There was also 4 per cent of respondents who insisted to the field data-gatherers that they were keeping their choices private and did not want to share that information. Also, 3 per cent of the respondents did not know. That cumulative 7 per cent remains an unknown factor, while 4 per cent of the survey said that they would be voting for other parties/candidates.

In a tight race where up to 20 per cent of the survey is not clearly identified with either of the main parties (PNM or TPP), the two seats in Tobago could go the way of the PNM if the vote-splitting continues to trend in favour of the PNM. Only one per cent said that they would not support any of the parties contesting the race.

As regards which of the two major parties is hurting more as a consequence of this split-vote phenomenon, it appears that the TPP is more likely to be affected by the loss of votes to the PDP since it is the party out of which the TPP emerged.

The Believability Question

The Believability question showed that the new Prime Minister enjoyed a lead over the Chief Secretary of the THA which was consistent with the results for the PNM on the question of choice of party.

However, the Chief Secretary (36 per cent) scored higher than his party (the TPP) did in the question of choice of party, which was 32 per cent. Interestingly, 8 per cent said that they did not know, 9 per cent said neither of them and 1 per cent said Watson Duke.

The responses to these questions may be indicative of respondents seeking a change now that Dr Rowley is gone, and they may be open to giving the new Prime Minister, Stuart Young, a chance as his replacement.

On the flip side, the Chief Secretary has survived the split in the PDP, and his administration in the THA has remained intact during the transition from being independent members of the THA to becoming members of the TPP that was formed in 2023. There has been a lot of controversial commentary between himself and the former prime minister as well as the leader of his former party, the PDP. Such controversial commentary does take a toll on public imaging, and, although he is not on the ballot, his party—the TPP—certainly is.

Conclusion

This general election is likely to be affected in marginal constituencies in Trinidad and the two Tobago constituencies by split voting involving third parties. In any close contests in these constituencies the pendulum could swing one way or the other because the quantum for third parties, others, not sure and private views takes the figures into double digits.

Any late swing in the final two weeks of the campaign after this survey was done could either exacerbate the vote split or reduce its impact. So far, it appears to be a factor.

https://guardian.co.tt/news/straight-pn ... 60470e8029

[pugboy]

all of that to say elections will be effected by marginal areas

[hover11]

Straight PNM, UNC fight in Trinidad

POLLSTER AND PROFESSOR HAMID GHANY

The poll was conducted from Thursday, April 10, to Sunday, April 13, 2025. A total of 1,650 questionnaires were administered in Trinidad over 11 constituencies that were selected based on a marginality formula that I invented in 2002. The margin of error for the Trinidad poll is +/- 2.5 per cent.

A total of 530 questionnaires were administered in Tobago—265 questionnaires in Tobago East and 265 questionnaires in Tobago West. The margin of error for the Tobago poll is +/- 4.0 per cent.

Calculation of marginality in Trinidad

In conducting the national survey, it was decided to use the parliamentary electoral constituencies as a natural geographical basis for gathering the data. To this end, the official results of the general elections of August 10, 2020, provided the basis for the choice of constituencies together with the boundary and constituency changes contained in the Report of the Elections and Boundaries Commission dated March 13, 2024, together with my marginality formula.

A calculation of marginality (M) was made to confirm what were the projected marginal constituencies for the 2025 general election. The symbols for this formula are M for marginality, and D for the midpoint spread of the deposit level for the largest (L) and smallest (S) constituencies if everyone were to vote.

This formula applies to electoral systems that use the first-past-the-post method where the retention of the deposit of every candidate is calculated at one-eighth of the total votes cast in a constituency. The deposit is a fundamental statistical benchmark and can serve as a guide to determine where a survey should be conducted if marginality is the key element in the search for truly mixed political opinions because in marginal constituencies the first and second candidates will normally save their deposits because marginality always tends to move closer to zero as the difference between the first and second candidates.

The constituencies with the largest electorate (L) and the smallest electorate (S) must be divided by 8, and then their difference divided by 2, in order to calculate D. Therefore, the formula is: (L/8 – S/8) / 2 = D

Once D is determined, then the statistical formula for calculating the outer limit of marginality (M) is: {(L/8) – D = (S/8) + D} = M

As a consequence, the following constituencies in Trinidad can be considered marginal in relation to the 2025 general election, owing to the fact that their projected marginality (calculated difference measured between the first and the second candidates based on 2020 electoral data and 2024 boundary changes) fell inside of > 3,504:

1. Aranguez/St Joseph (823)

2. Barataria / San Juan (1,060)

3. Moruga/Tableland (1,072)

4. Chaguanas East (1,086)

5. San Fernando West (1,618)

6. Claxton Bay (1,813)

7. Tunapuna (1,927)

8. La Horquetta/Talparo (1,939)

9. Toco/Sangre Grande (2,976)

10. Cumuto/Manzanilla (3,326)

11. Mayaro (3,364)

These constituencies were polled by using three PDs per constituency on the basis of choosing one very strong PNM PD from 2020, one very strong UNC PD from 2020 and one marginal PD from 2020 at 50 questionnaires per PD.

ANALYSIS

Political party support

The performance of the PNM Government over the last ten years, which is essentially connected to the legacy of the former Prime Minister, Dr Keith Rowley, has placed the new Prime Minister, Stuart Young, at a disadvantage, as he has to either acknowledge that he was part of this performance or he is going to distance himself from it.

The Leader of the Opposition, Kamla Persad-Bissessar, has rebranded herself as the leader of a new coalition of interests which has broadened the base of the UNC by bringing personalities who were previously opposed to her into her fold just as they have changed their disposition towards her.

The opinion poll respondents have taken a somewhat positive view (45 per cent) of the UNC coalition of interests, while the PNM has not been as favourably viewed by respondents in the poll (30 per cent).

The split-vote phenomenon is alive and well, as the combined effect of the support for the Patriotic Front (7 per cent) and the National Transformation Alliance (6 per cent) has a 13 per cent voter deviation looming over the heads of both the UNC and the PNM.

As regards which of the two major parties they are hurting more, it is difficult to tell. If it is the UNC Coalition, then that would mean that they would have to make further inroads into the UNC Coalition to hurt their chances. If, however, they are hurting the PNM as part of an anti-UNC vote, then the UNC will be the prime beneficiary of such a vote split.

This outcome was gathered from 11 marginal constituencies, and a 13 per cent vote split will be significant under the first-past-the-post system of election. If the PF and the NTA are cutting into UNC coalition votes, then more cutting will be required to reduce the chances of the UNC coalition. If the PF and the NTA are cutting into PNM votes, then that does not augur well for the PNM.

How the actual vote splitting will play out in any of these marginal constituencies cannot be predicted, but any close finishes could be the result of vote splitting one way or another.

This poll was taken two weeks before the General Election and so the snapshot may change if there are any switches among third party votes as a result of the final two weeks of campaigning.

Believability/Good for the Economy Questions

The Believability/Good for the Economy questions showed that the Leader of the Opposition enjoyed a lead over the new Prime Minister that was consistent with the choice of party in the final question of the survey. The separation of these questions between the start of the poll and the end of the poll was designed to see whether there would be a modicum of consistency between these first responses and the last response.

Essentially, there is a correlation between them. However, in a first-past-the-post system, one does not know how the final results will play out in individual marginal constituencies.

The responses to these questions may be indicative of respondents seeking a change now that Dr Rowley is gone, and they may not be responding as positively to Prime Minister Young as his replacement.

On the flip side, the Leader of the Opposition, Kamla Persad-Bissessar, has formed new alliances which may have been viewed positively by the respondents as a new image that they may be willing to try.

TOBAGO

The two Tobago constituencies were polled using five PDs in each constituency based on trending results using 2020 general election data and tracking those PDs through the January 2021 and December 2021 Tobago House of Assembly (THA) results.

The tracking of these results for the initial PDs from 2020 through the two THA elections of 2021 was deemed to be necessary seeing that (i) the PNM lost ground, (ii) the PDP gained ground, and (iii) the TPP was subsequently formed out of the PDP. Geographical spread was also a factor in selecting PDs.

The methodology had to contend with the effect of the decline of the PNM in three elections (2020 General Election, January 2021 THA elections and December 2021 THA elections) and whether they would regain any lost support because of the split between the PDP and the TPP. At the same time, there was the need to measure whether the PDP would hold its 2021 vote levels or whether the TPP had inherited the votes of the PDP after the split between them in 2022/2023.

ANALYSIS

Political Party Support

The likelihood of split voting is very apparent in Tobago given the percentage differences between the three main parties in the contest on the island. The PNM is leading with 47 per cent; however, the TPP, which was formed out of the PDP, is at 32 per cent and the PDP is at 9 per cent. There was also 4 per cent of respondents who insisted to the field data-gatherers that they were keeping their choices private and did not want to share that information. Also, 3 per cent of the respondents did not know. That cumulative 7 per cent remains an unknown factor, while 4 per cent of the survey said that they would be voting for other parties/candidates.

In a tight race where up to 20 per cent of the survey is not clearly identified with either of the main parties (PNM or TPP), the two seats in Tobago could go the way of the PNM if the vote-splitting continues to trend in favour of the PNM. Only one per cent said that they would not support any of the parties contesting the race.

As regards which of the two major parties is hurting more as a consequence of this split-vote phenomenon, it appears that the TPP is more likely to be affected by the loss of votes to the PDP since it is the party out of which the TPP emerged.

The Believability Question

The Believability question showed that the new Prime Minister enjoyed a lead over the Chief Secretary of the THA which was consistent with the results for the PNM on the question of choice of party.

However, the Chief Secretary (36 per cent) scored higher than his party (the TPP) did in the question of choice of party, which was 32 per cent. Interestingly, 8 per cent said that they did not know, 9 per cent said neither of them and 1 per cent said Watson Duke.

The responses to these questions may be indicative of respondents seeking a change now that Dr Rowley is gone, and they may be open to giving the new Prime Minister, Stuart Young, a chance as his replacement.

On the flip side, the Chief Secretary has survived the split in the PDP, and his administration in the THA has remained intact during the transition from being independent members of the THA to becoming members of the TPP that was formed in 2023. There has been a lot of controversial commentary between himself and the former prime minister as well as the leader of his former party, the PDP. Such controversial commentary does take a toll on public imaging, and, although he is not on the ballot, his party—the TPP—certainly is.

Conclusion

This general election is likely to be affected in marginal constituencies in Trinidad and the two Tobago constituencies by split voting involving third parties. In any close contests in these constituencies the pendulum could swing one way or the other because the quantum for third parties, others, not sure and private views takes the figures into double digits.

Any late swing in the final two weeks of the campaign after this survey was done could either exacerbate the vote split or reduce its impact. So far, it appears to be a factor.

https://guardian.co.tt/news/straight-pn ... 60470e8029

Meanwhile, the PNM did their own private poll unsurprisingly, it said that the PNM is ahead throughout lol

[hover11]

Tobago seats remain key, whoever wins There , owns the government

[bluefete]

Meanwhile Stuartie:

Poll shows PNM leading in 4 marginal seats, says Young
https://trinidadexpress.com/newsextra/p ... 78def.html


Honourable beat me with this one: But the Sunday Guardian says: (Hamid Ghany is no pollster of any note, eh).

Down to the wire
PNM leading in Tobago; UNC ahead
in key Trinidad marginals
https://www.guardian.co.tt/news/down-to ... 87cd3ebe84

[bluefete]

Tobago seats remain key, whoever wins There , owns the government

Zoom saying this long time. You have to wonder about these polls sometimes.

People can tell you what you want to hear but when they go to vote is another story.

[paid_influencer]

Meanwhile Stuartie:

Poll shows PNM leading in 4 marginal seats, says Young
https://trinidadexpress.com/newsextra/p ... 78def.html


Honourable beat me with this one: But the Sunday Guardian says: (Hamid Ghany is no pollster of any note, eh).

Down to the wire
PNM leading in Tobago; UNC ahead
in key Trinidad marginals
https://www.guardian.co.tt/news/down-to ... 87cd3ebe84

Young know what was going to print in the Guardian, and the day before telling ppl not to believe it

The misinformation and the negativity they’re going to pump from tomorrow (Sunday). As I told you, they’re coming with a false poll to try and fool the country and fool PNM and fool people who want to associate with us as winners … Stay focused, ignore their lies,”

Young said as he added that they turn off their radios and televisions.

man say they getting chaguanas east this year. PNM fully becoming an indian party

[bluefete]

Tobago PNM / TPP bacchanal.

[hover11]

TOBAGO will never vote for PNM. PNM has done them an injustice and continue treating them like bustard children

[bluefete]

Young know what was going to print in the Guardian, and the day before telling ppl not to believe it

Well de 1% pay Ghany to do the poll and you know how these things go:

He who pays the piper calls the tune!

[bluefete]

TOBAGO will never vote for PNM. PNM has done them an injustice and continue treating them like bustard children

Please go and tell the PNM that. Tobago was bobolized by the PNM since they kicked them out in 2021.

[hover11]

TOBAGO will never vote for PNM. PNM has done them an injustice and continue treating them like bustard children

Please go and tell the PNM that. Tobago was bobolized by the PNM since they kicked them out in 2021.

Didn't know b a s t a r d was gonna be censored, it is literally in the dictionary anyway. This is my thing PNM didn't know an election was coming this year? They rushing to pave roads days before elections, rushing to negotiate with unions, rushing to make forex available with exim banks. They didn't know elections was due and the same ppl they treated like dogshite over the years now have to say whether they stay or vacate.

[MaxPower]

Every every single election time the Govt always rushes to something….things suddenly start happening…and Trinis fall for it and beat up every single time.

[hover11]

Every every single election time the Govt always rushes to something….things suddenly start happening…and Trinis fall for it and beat up every single time.

With that being said max then probably elections should be every year probably only then we might see real progress

[Redress10]

TOBAGO will never vote for PNM. PNM has done them an injustice and continue treating them like bustard children

Some of you all are acting as though you are on the ground interacting with voters and hearing what they saying. Are you in Tobago? Do you know how tobagonians feel about the TPP and Farley?

When the results come hope you don't act surprise. Alot of you all living in an echo chamber and not facing the reality. As much as people don't like PNM, they dislike UNC even more. UNC got less votes than PNM last two elections if I'm not mistaken and Kamla is even less popular today than she was 10 years ago.

I honestly don't understand how some of you all think a UNC victory is in the bag. The UNC is not viewed in a more favourable light compared to PNM at this point.

[paid_influencer]

redress understand what going on

PM Young says be wary of polls, misinformation in lead up to election

With less than 10 days to go before T&T votes in the April 28 General Election, Prime Minister Stuart Young issued a warning to PNM supporters and the public to be on the lookout for increased misinformation from the opposite side.

Speaking during a PNM public meeting in Moruga/Tableland on Saturday night, Young said misinformation will be spread through polls this week to make people believe the PNM is struggling.

He urged supporters to ignore the negativity and stay focused.

The PNM candidate for Port of Spain North/St Ann’s West claimed that according to a PNM scientific poll, the UNC is panicking in certain constituencies like Barataria/ San Juan, Moruga/Tableland, Chaguanas East, Mayaro and Cumuto/Manzanilla.

[Redress10]

redress understand what going on

PM Young says be wary of polls, misinformation in lead up to election

With less than 10 days to go before T&T votes in the April 28 General Election, Prime Minister Stuart Young issued a warning to PNM supporters and the public to be on the lookout for increased misinformation from the opposite side.

Speaking during a PNM public meeting in Moruga/Tableland on Saturday night, Young said misinformation will be spread through polls this week to make people believe the PNM is struggling.

He urged supporters to ignore the negativity and stay focused.

The PNM candidate for Port of Spain North/St Ann’s West claimed that according to a PNM scientific poll, the UNC is panicking in certain constituencies like Barataria/ San Juan, Moruga/Tableland, Chaguanas East, Mayaro and Cumuto/Manzanilla.

The same polls had UNC winning by a landslide in 2015 and 2020. Those of us old enough know what 2010 felt like when the country voted out Manning. Be honest with yourselves, the country don't have those same vibes again. If anything those vibes against Kamla and not Young.

Keep letting these ppl fool you all with polls stating who ahead etc. None of that mean anything

I honestly feel the race tight in Moruga/tableland, Barataria/San Juan. I need more info for Mayaro but wouldn't be surprised if Mayaro in play as well.