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The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

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abducted
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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby abducted » June 26th, 2022, 11:04 pm

hustla_ambition101 wrote:
MaxPower wrote:
DMan7 wrote:When TT Met Office say to run is to crawl. You've been warned.


X3000.

The TT Met Office is clueless and lost when it comes to weather.
They working with the shittty allocations they getting. Can you dig a 40×40 foundation in a day with a teaspoon?

I am trying to find where MET Office was incorrect about their forecast and warning for today, MaxPower and DMan7 are dotish for another ten people, each,

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby Ripe Chenette » June 27th, 2022, 3:15 am

Hearing thunder that seemed to come from the southern side

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby Duane 3NE 2NR » June 27th, 2022, 3:34 am

Heavy showers in central atm

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby aaron17 » June 27th, 2022, 4:36 am

MaxPower wrote:
aaron17 wrote:Most ppl saying it not gonna veer north..due to high pressure from above.


aaron,

it always veers north west due to Coriolis force.

aaron click this link and then click the area where the weather is to have an idea what to expect over the next few days.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2
Oh

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby Dave » June 27th, 2022, 6:32 am

These predictors we have here rather fail to prepare or prepare to fail?

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby greggle71 » June 27th, 2022, 6:46 am

I’ll say this for out MET office, our blessing of being situated outside of the hurricane belt is a curse from a forecasting standpoint. We have seen storms on this track before and rarely have we been directly impacted due to that normal upward turn at the very last minute but looking at the path now it looks like it’s heading directly to us so alerts have to come but the outcome which we expect via the alerts rarely materialize which creates the cynicism we see on this thread. I prefer a wrong MET forecast and my roof intact after a weather system though.

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby Gladiator » June 27th, 2022, 7:59 am

I think the problem with the communication was bad coordination between Farris press conference and the MET office warnings of which the sequence was:

1. Weather news announce bad weather
2. MET office put out yellow alert
3. Farris had press Conference (with no weatherman to explain weather systems)
4. MET office lifted yellow alert to green
5. Everybody confused and start posting NHC info (not knowing that the yellow alert was for another weather system)

How they could be so uncoordinated is a marvel.... but is PNM, so we gets what we gets.

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby pugboy » June 27th, 2022, 8:07 am

don’t sweat it
there will be another presser this evening or tomorrow

rohani might dress more in line

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby W2J » June 27th, 2022, 8:35 am

Duane 3NE 2NR wrote:Heavy showers in central atm


hot sun before the light house, unaffected...

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby redmanjp » June 27th, 2022, 8:40 am

70% chance of development within 48 hrs
90% within 5 days

Hurricane hunters on their way to it this afternoon.
Last edited by redmanjp on June 27th, 2022, 9:23 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby bluefete » June 27th, 2022, 8:42 am

Once T&T blight politicians get involved, the weather changes its mind!

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby Musical Doc » June 27th, 2022, 8:55 am

Exactly, I was following this from the first day Mora posted and I posted it here. I take these things very seriously even if it turns out to be a dud. I prefer to be prepared rather than end up in trouble because of complacency

bluefete wrote:All the tuner weather forecasters who were on Jonathan's case, going back to June 21st. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

He is giving TTWeather Center some serious competition right now.

https://www.facebook.com/jonnymoratt


redmanjp wrote:
Musical Doc wrote:Saw a couple reports stating that computer models are forecasting that tropical wave 11 will turn to a storm just before it reaches trinidad. Anybody else saw that?


nothing at all on https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

if there was something that had even a 10% chance it would be there.


Dizzy28 wrote:
Musical Doc wrote:This is just one I saw on fb, Jonathon Mora had a post about it on his fb weather page. It is the GFS model forecasting this.


redmanjp wrote:but GFS is just 1 of many models right?


Mora seems like a bit of a sensationalist.


matr1x wrote:It's completely and utterly fake.


shake d livin wake d dead wrote:
Musical Doc wrote:This is just one I saw on fb, Jonathon Mora had a post about it on his fb weather page. It is the GFS model forecasting this.


Nhc doh even have this at a 10% chance of formation


DTAC wrote:People real flexing for Facebook likes/shares this season. Very dark in Central right now though.

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby pugboy » June 27th, 2022, 9:16 am

does hurricane hunters normally send planes and get involved so early and far ahead in a system’s path ?
i found it a bit odd

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby redmanjp » June 27th, 2022, 9:21 am

pugboy wrote:does hurricane hunters normally send planes and get involved so early and far ahead in a system’s path ?
i found it a bit odd


24 hrs ahead is not early. Would u rather they wait till tomorrow which would only give perhaps a 12 hr warning before the system makes landfall? Nowadays watches are issued as much 48 hrs in advance and warnings 36 hrs.

And if the system decide to speed up that would give less than even 12 hrs. Ppl need time to prepare especially in flood prone areas.

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby maj. tom » June 27th, 2022, 10:45 am

pugboy wrote:does hurricane hunters normally send planes and get involved so early and far ahead in a system’s path ?
i found it a bit odd


Sometimes they would send them out as far as the WC-130's range from the San Juan airbase. Which is about 3000 km and about 40°W. Once it is a system that's predicted to make landfall, they want more accurate measurements than satellites as early as possible. We'll get real windspeed readings from the NHC by tonight.

This system.... You all remember October 2018? Prepare for that level of disaster and more. Storms release more energy through rainfall than wind.

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby pugboy » June 27th, 2022, 11:24 am

2018 was more about volume of rainfall compounded with the fact that ground was waterlogged from rain a week earlier which the experts were placing all their attention on.
after that first set of rain passed they relaxed

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby Duane 3NE 2NR » June 27th, 2022, 11:30 am

things got real active real fast
two_atl_5d0-1.png

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby SuperiorMan » June 27th, 2022, 11:37 am

Anyone know when the storm actually supposed to be hitting here? Is it tomorrow?

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby Chimera » June 27th, 2022, 11:54 am

time to gas up the generator and organise the extension chords
Last edited by Chimera on June 27th, 2022, 12:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby Duane 3NE 2NR » June 27th, 2022, 12:03 pm

SuperiorMan wrote:Anyone know when the storm actually supposed to be hitting here? Is it tomorrow?

based on this it will pass over us Tuesday night into wednesday morning
Screenshot 2022-06-27 at 12.02.36 PM.jpg

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby SuperiorMan » June 27th, 2022, 12:07 pm

Alright thanks.

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby brickman » June 27th, 2022, 12:12 pm

Heavy wind and rain in pos.

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby K74T » June 27th, 2022, 12:16 pm

Gloomy in Barataria. Showers gearing up.

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The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby MaxPower » June 27th, 2022, 12:22 pm

IMG_9807.JPG


Was well prepared for Stink&Dutty tho.

Coolers ram pack, cellphones charged 100 for maximum selfies and live feeds.

But galvanize loose on dey roof.

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby timelapse » June 27th, 2022, 1:02 pm

MaxPower wrote:
IMG_9807.JPG


Was well prepared for Stink&Dutty tho.

Coolers ram pack, cellphones charged 100 for maximum selfies and live feeds.

But galvanize loose on dey roof.
Doh say that.The race card will be invoked

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby redmanjp » June 27th, 2022, 1:10 pm

SuperiorMan wrote:Anyone know when the storm actually supposed to be hitting here? Is it tomorrow?


ETA is tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. But doh wait till tomorrow afternoon to prepare. The hurricane hunter plane will have more data this evening.

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby Duane 3NE 2NR » June 27th, 2022, 1:58 pm

Image

Image

Check this report from AccuWeather
https://cdn.jwplayer.com/previews/aY73kd9y

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby maj. tom » June 27th, 2022, 2:05 pm

Image

Image

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby shake d livin wake d dead » June 27th, 2022, 2:07 pm

According to nhc, ts warnings can be issued by this afternoon as the hurricane hunter observed ts force winds...

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Re: The Official Tropical Weather Thread 2022

Postby Duane 3NE 2NR » June 27th, 2022, 2:33 pm

TROPICAL UPDATE

*NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE FOUND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WHILE INVESTIGATING 94L*

2:00 PM:
- NOAA Hurricane hunters have found tropical storm-force winds while investigating Invest 94L east-southeast of the Windward Islands. A tropical depression or a tropical storm is likely to form during the next day or so. Interests in the Windward
Islands and along the northeastern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of these areas later today. We will comtinue to monitor 94L and issue updates in a timely manner.

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